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26 Offers. First-Time Home Buyers Are Screwed.


By donjumpsuit   Follow   Thu, 17 Jan 2013, 10:56pm PST   4,103 views   63 comments
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http://www.bayarearealestatetrends.com/2013/01/26-offers-first-time-buyers-screwed/

“Tell them to not even bother,” said the listing agent apologetically about my first-time home buyers. “There is simply no way they can compete.”

NIZE

Real Estate is as healthy as ever!

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JodyChunder   Tue, 22 Jan 2013, 2:23pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 24

E-man says

but it hurts because we're no where near the top of the market.

No no -- you are, pretty much...

Victorville on the other hand, is just getting started!

REpro   Tue, 22 Jan 2013, 2:54pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 25

Kevin says

Its expensive because of all of the childless, drinks, single professionals, and tech money.

Same reasons why Manhattan is so expensive, just with engineers instead of bankers.

Agree. In Manhattan, when someone grew-up to have children and have resources is leaving to buy a house in suburban.

JodyChunder   Tue, 22 Jan 2013, 2:59pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 26

E-man says

LOL! Thanks for the laugh. You're funny uncle Jody. :)

That's Daddy Chunder™ -- and I wasn't joking. Victoriville is up 20% YOY, and things are looking good for the next several years before I finally offload this crap and retire. IOW, my cha-ching is bigger than your cha-ching!

https://www.evernote.com/shard/s1/sh/d5b94e7b-a9cf-4358-b828-1c12f950d72f/76287f41f73c48de4a9147392999d1f7

On the flip side, do you actually think you're going to experience linearly upward appreciation where you are? If so, what will drive it? And don't you goddamn dare say Chinese investors!

thomaswong.1986   Tue, 22 Jan 2013, 3:39pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 27

bmwman91 says

via web-ad revenue

na... much is still product / services in SW and HW. Ad Revenue is two small to make a difference... there is no unlimited ad revenue market worth trillions and trillions.

we do make what the customer needs, enterprise systems, much is for running business.

thomaswong.1986   Tue, 22 Jan 2013, 3:43pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 28

Kevin says

Its expensive because of all of the childless, drinks, single professionals, and tech money.

like it was back in the 70s 80s and 90s. Oh yea... NOT !

JodyChunder   Tue, 22 Jan 2013, 3:56pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 29

E-man says

Santa Clara County is up 28% YOY on SFHs and 30% YOY on condos.

It's primarily just a FED induced RE rally, though. Granted, it's the same thing driving prices up here in Victorville, but unlike SCC, Victorville actually hit a deep trough from which it is now surging (only to trough again, of course). I bought in the trough, and am enjoying the wave. Admit it! You wish you'd listened to me and bought yourself some desert parcels! FOOL! ; D

E-man says

The next market top is 2018-2020. :)

Did your crystal ball come with a user's manual? Did you ever read it? Minus the odd rally here and there, it's diminishing returns/consolidation/consumer deleveraging for the rest of your life, junior. I know the windows in the casino make it look like the party'll never end, but...I'm sorry...

E-man says

Looks like we have been adding quite a bit of jobs here in the Silicon Valley. The traffic is getting worse by the days.

That's a pretty folksy metric for job growth! The traffic was insane in Florida when I was there for a few weeks two years back and their unemployment was something like 12%!

I see a big difference between the parabolic growth in tech in the 90's and the growth we're seeing today. The overall compensation is still very competitive in order to attract talent, but it just doesn't go as far (gas in '99 was .87 cents). Besides, much of the really smart/savvy employees (typically the highest compensated) tend to split Siilycon Valley as soon as they can cash in their chips. That's because it's a boring ass city. I see this as a growing trend going forward. All that will be left aside from a few diehards are the also-rans and investor nerds.

E-man says

Uncle Jody,

DADDY! I've never been anybody's uncle!

Homeboy   Tue, 22 Jan 2013, 4:35pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 30

I made an offer on a house in 2009 that ended up getting 80 offers. I made an offer on a house in 2010 that ended up selling for 35% over asking price.

26 offers? 10% over asking price? Big deal.

REpro   Wed, 23 Jan 2013, 11:45am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 31

In SFBA: “No cash – no house amigo”.
Every broker I worked with, asked me how much cash I have.

JodyChunder   Wed, 23 Jan 2013, 12:48pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike     Comment 32

REpro says

In SFBA: “No cash – no house amigo”.

The manipulation of consumer sentiment here is so transparent: the more expensive or exclusive you make something, the more covetous the consumer becomes. That's how you get dupe A into outbidding dupe B: by making the idea of slowly dying of boredom in a 60 year old 900 sq ft rambler in Nerdopolis seem like something downright exotic.

Victorville's looking better and better everyday, folks...

TechGromit   Thu, 24 Jan 2013, 2:15am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 33

The Real estate "Bubble" isn't back, at least not for most of us. The problem with the Real Estate bubble in 2005 was all markets were way over priced, the supply shortage is mostly confined to the bay area, there certainly isn't 10 offers, with offers over assessed value for houses for sale in my area.

Call it Crazy   Thu, 24 Jan 2013, 2:53am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 34

TechGromit says

the supply shortage is mostly confined to the bay area, there certainly isn't 10 offers, with offers over assessed value for houses for sale in my area.

That's because many of the houses in your area are out laying in the ocean after Hurricane Sandy.... :)

Kevin   Thu, 24 Jan 2013, 12:42pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 35

There is a big supply shortage being reported in every major us metro. People aren't selling.

thomaswong.1986   Thu, 24 Jan 2013, 12:46pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 36

Kevin says

There is a big supply shortage being reported in every major us metro. People aren't selling.

I drive down the street and see many "FOR SALE" signs on homes..especially on weekend..

But not listed on MLS anywhere... Pocket and Exclusive Listings.. a growing trend..

I suggest you look at if this is also true in your Metro.. I am sure you will find it true.

gregpfielding   Thu, 24 Jan 2013, 12:51pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 37

thomaswong.1986 says

I drive down the street and see many "FOR SALE" signs on homes..especially on weekend..

But not listed on MLS anywhere... Pocket and Exclusive Listings.. a growing trend..

I suggest you look at if this is also true in your Metro.. I am sure you will find it true.

I haven't seen this at all in my part of the East Bay.

thomaswong.1986   Thu, 24 Jan 2013, 12:55pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 38

robertoaribas says

move to a small town in the midwest, and quit bitching about how expensive the bay area is... or move to nevada or something. maybe reno, and you could fly back to the bay area, or even drive whenever you want to spend a weekend.

thats what business does.. move out of SFBA.. to North West... South West and Texas.

thomaswong.1986   Thu, 24 Jan 2013, 12:57pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 39

gregpfielding says

I haven't seen this at all in my part of the East Bay.

just saying... keep open mind about how complete these listings are.. no requirements.

JodyChunder   Thu, 24 Jan 2013, 1:58pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 40

thomaswong.1986 says

But not listed on MLS anywhere... Pocket and Exclusive Listings.. a growing trend..

Very true -- but this is a growing trend outside of California, too. Patrick once discussed why pocket listings were not advantageous for buyers, but I can't find the thread now.

REpro   Thu, 24 Jan 2013, 2:14pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 41

Pocket listing is growing due to low inventory. Having own listing is like finding a golden egg now.

JodyChunder   Thu, 24 Jan 2013, 2:20pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 42

I predict some folks'll sure feel duped when the time comes that EVERYONE'S walking around town with one of what they thought were once so rare -- especially when they paid the concomitant premium that goes along with *RARE*

REpro   Thu, 24 Jan 2013, 2:23pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 43

JodyChunder says

I predict some folks'll sure feel duped when the time comes that EVERYONE'S walking around town with one of what they thought were once so rare -- especially when they paid the concomitant premium that goes along with *RARE*

Yep, can happen. Like open just bought spoiled 100 years old bottle of wine.

TechGromit   Fri, 25 Jan 2013, 4:46am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 44

I wonder what the "For Sale by Owner" market looks like. It was pretty rough there for awhile, because so many people had trouble selling there houses due to the rough market people started started using realtors again. If there's so many offers on anything that comes on the market, they I see little reason to use a realtor, you should be able to successfully market your house yourself.

Call it Crazy   Fri, 25 Jan 2013, 4:52am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 45

thomaswong.1986 says

Kevin says

There is a big supply shortage being reported in every major us metro. People aren't selling.

I drive down the street and see many "FOR SALE" signs on homes..especially on weekend..

I drive down many side streets and see bunches of empty houses without "for sale" signs on them. There are three within one block of my house now.

The few that come on the market are mostly underwater and the owners are asking unrealistic prices for them, even though there's no chance they will get anything close to what their mortgage balance currently is...

New Renter   Fri, 25 Jan 2013, 8:14am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 46

JodyChunder says

I rode my bike down there from Texas the summer of '58 and loved it better than anyplace else on Earth -- despite a nasty hurricane and the turmoils unfolding at the time. This was just before the shit hit the fan down there.

You rode a bike from Texas to Cuba???

Joey Chunder... JC... OMG!! HE'S BACK!!!

The Professor   Fri, 25 Jan 2013, 8:34am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 47

New Renter says

JodyChunder says

I rode my bike down there from Texas the summer of '58 and loved it better than anyplace else on Earth -- despite a nasty hurricane and the turmoils unfolding at the time. This was just before the shit hit the fan down there.

You rode a bike from Texas to Cuba???

Joey Chunder... JC... OMG!! HE'S BACK!!!

He never left.

JodyChunder   Fri, 25 Jan 2013, 11:35am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 48

New Renter says

You rode a bike from Texas to Cuba???

A motorbike - an oil pissing '52 AJS I traded my cousin for.

New Renter says

Joey Chunder... JC... OMG!! HE'S BACK!!!

Ol' JC is always here for you, my son.

thomaswong.1986   Fri, 25 Jan 2013, 11:44am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 49

JodyChunder says

a growing trend outside of California, too.

exactly... becoming the norm.. so all the inventory numbers have become meaningless.

JodyChunder   Fri, 25 Jan 2013, 11:47am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 50

thomaswong.1986 says

so all the inventory numbers have become meaningless.

Somebody just shitcanned the idea a few comments above, pointing to the fact that banks insist on a house being on the MLS for at least a week. Is this true in all states?

hrhjuliet   Fri, 25 Jan 2013, 11:51am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 51

JodyChunder says
I'm just sympathetic to being born too early/too late. I have been alive a long time, and I can see in vivid detail how the boomers fucked up a good thing.

The power of Monetary Policy, as the great Polanyi illustrated some 70 years ago in his book The Great Transformation, should not be underestimated. It rends and puts asunder everything from business concerns to marriages and household formation. It is truly a destructive force.

Thank you. You may be the only boomer who gives a darn - thank you just the same. (:

B.A.C.A.H.   Fri, 25 Jan 2013, 11:52am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 52

Call it Crazy says

I drive down many side streets and see bunches of empty houses without "for sale" signs on them. There are three within one block of my house now.

The few that come on the market are mostly underwater and the owners are asking unrealistic prices for them

Crazy, what city/neighborhood is it?

thomaswong.1986   Fri, 25 Jan 2013, 11:58am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 53

JodyChunder says

pointing to the fact that banks insist on a house being on the MLS for at least a week. Is this true in all states?

god knows what their internal policies are regards listing on MLS..
more like hearsay and speculation.

hrhjuliet   Fri, 25 Jan 2013, 12:00pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 54

robertoaribas says

good grief, my family left Barcelona and fled across the mountains into France to escape death when the fascists took over. My direct family (grandfather, grandmother) went to Cuba, where my father was born...

They escaped out of Cuba to NYC with nothing...

cost of living a tad high seems like an itty bitty thing.

That's out of touch. I would leave this mess called Silicon Valley, but it's very complicated. Everyone's story is different, you are in real estate, that's working for you - more than working you, you seem to love it, and like a religion and it has given you what you need to fill your holes. Your personal experience doesn't qualify you to judge other people's choices - it's not as simple as it looks to you in your real estate temple. Things are not black and white.

JodyChunder   Fri, 25 Jan 2013, 12:19pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 55

hrhjuliet says

Thank you. You may be the only boomer who gives a darn - thank you just the same. (:

Only I'm not a boomer!

thomaswong.1986   Fri, 25 Jan 2013, 2:21pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 56

JodyChunder says

the more expensive or exclusive you make something, the more covetous the consumer becomes. That's how you get dupe A into outbidding dupe B: by making the idea of slowly dying of boredom in a 60 year old 900 sq ft

yes.. you said it...

SJ   Sat, 26 Jan 2013, 12:00am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 57

More reason to move out of the overpriced overated bay area.

gregpfielding   Mon, 28 Jan 2013, 2:53am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 58

thomaswong.1986 says

pointing to the fact that banks insist on a house being on the MLS for at least a week. Is this true in all states?

god knows what their internal policies are regards listing on MLS..

more like hearsay and speculation.

It's not true of every REO or every bank within California. Some will look at offers right away. Others, like Fannie Mae, often have a window for owner-occupants and then a later window for investors.

Call it Crazy   Mon, 28 Jan 2013, 3:33am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 59

B.A.C.A.H. says

Call it Crazy says

I drive down many side streets and see bunches of empty houses without "for sale" signs on them. There are three within one block of my house now.

The few that come on the market are mostly underwater and the owners are asking unrealistic prices for them

Crazy, what city/neighborhood is it?

Central New Jersey

tatupu70   Mon, 28 Jan 2013, 3:48am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 60

Call it Crazy says

Central New Jersey

Where exactly are you looking? I'm in central Jersey and I don't see any...

Call it Crazy   Mon, 28 Jan 2013, 4:11am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 61

tatupu70 says

Call it Crazy says

Central New Jersey

Where exactly are you looking? I'm in central Jersey and I don't see any...

Apparently, your not looking close enough...

Westfield isn't really central NJ..... I know you're new there... you'll learn...

tatupu70   Mon, 28 Jan 2013, 4:27am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 62

Call it Crazy says

Apparently, your not looking close enough...


Westfield isn't really central NJ..... I know you're new there... you'll
learn...

You're probably correct. I don't know where North ends and Central begins. On Craigslist, it seems that the area around me is generally listed in Central, but that's probably not the definitive guide I'll admit.

To your point--I'm sure there are people in pre-foreclosure in Jersey, but I don't see many empty houses.

Call it Crazy   Mon, 28 Jan 2013, 5:20am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 63

tatupu70 says

ou're probably correct. I don't know where North ends and Central begins.

That's your fault for moving here, I tried to warn you!! Union County sort of falls in the lower part of North Jersey, pretty much right on the line on Central and North.

tatupu70 says

To your point--I'm sure there are people in pre-foreclosure in Jersey, but I don't see many empty houses.

Westfield is like a culture of it's own, you might not see many empty house in your town but venture into Cranford, Garwood, Clark , etc. and you'll probably see more...

There's a ton of pre-forclosures that have popped up recently now that the robo-signing deal was reached. Time will tell how fast these come on the market.

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