Will the real estate trend continue in 2013?


By lostand confused   Follow   Mon, 21 Jan 2013, 5:53am   5,566 views   139 comments
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http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/normal-housing-market-us-historical-housing-data-with-trends/

It is hard to see how the pace of appreciation can continue without a similar underlying real growth in household wages or a continued flood of investor money. Yet in markets were investors dominate, local families are outbid by global money and big funds. What makes up a healthy housing market? Today well examine seven charts and try to put this current housing market into a longer-term perspective.

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  1. yup1


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    100   3:13am Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Bigsby says

    He's had the property appraised. He's shown you comparables. It's pretty
    clear that his valuation appears to be more accurate than the Zillow estimate.
    Yet you think you have delivered a 'huge fucking smackdown' based on a Zillow
    estimate, a Zillow estimate that still shows a 12.4% increase in how many
    months? Laughable.

    Zillow and Redfin. You also fail to mention the fact that he valued this property at 190K on zillow in July of last year.

  2. yup1


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    101   3:15am Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Bigsby says

    a Zillow estimate that still shows a 12.4% increase in how many months?
    Laughable.

    A 12.4% increase not counting his costs to purchase, finance, and rehab the property. I am sure those costs are greater than 0.

  3. Bigsby


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    102   3:25am Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    yup1 says

    Bigsby says

    a Zillow estimate that still shows a 12.4% increase in how many months?

    Laughable.

    A 12.4% increase not counting his costs to purchase, finance, and rehab the property. I am sure those costs are greater than 0.

    So what? It's still a substantial increase in a very short time. And he has no intention of selling as he's in it for the cash flow. He must be heartbroken to be getting $1500 on a house that cost him $129,000.

  4. Bigsby


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    103   3:29am Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    yup1 says

    Zillow and Redfin. You also fail to mention the fact that he valued this property at 190K on zillow in July of last year.

    And why is that such an issue to you? Out of any of the property owners on here, he seems to be the most transparent. He's also arrogant and rude, but then he has to deal with people like you making pointless digs at him, so I can see why he's become like that.

  5. yup1


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    104   3:44am Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Anyone with a 4th grade math skill can see that Roberto is full of shit.
    I will show you nice and easy so you can understand.
    He stated

    robertoaribas says

    You post one of my best investment homes

    Unless he mistated, if this is one of his "best" simple math shows you he is full of shit.

    14 investment properties, one of his best making 16k of appreciation.

    14 X 16k = 224k

    Roberto is claiming 1 MILLION dollars of appreciation.

    He is overestimating his entire protfolio by about the same amount as he overstated this property. This property he has overstated appreciation by 375%

    1 Million divided by 3.75 = 266,666 of actual appreciation.

    Imagine that it is very close to my first estimate of 224k.

    Of course all of this is only because Roberto is using leverage. His entire portfolio may be worth 1 Million dollars or more but he has nowhere near 1 Million dollars of appreciation. Remember Roberto has cash out refinanced. In other words he owes the bank some % of each home. If he started with 400 K to invest and bought all the homes at the bottom of the market he could have leveraged and bought a 2 million dollar portfolio while maintaining 20% down. With Phoenix being up what 30% from the bottom he would only be up 600,000. By all means not chump change but also not turning 400K into a million dollars of profit.

    A small 15% correction to the overheated Phoenix market will wipe out most of this paper appreciation. We have all seen how investors flea like rats from a sinking ship when the price turns south.

  6. yup1


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    105   3:46am Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Bigsby says

    He's also arrogant and rude, but then he has to deal with people like you making
    pointless digs at him, so I can see why he's become like that.

    Pointless digs? Last time I checked this was a housing bubble blog.

  7. yup1


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    106   4:03am Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    http://phoenix.craigslist.org/search/apa?srchType=T&zoomToPosting=&altView=&query=tempe&minAsk=500&maxAsk=1400&bedrooms=3

    Simple Craiglist search shows 185 3BR+ rentals in the "tempe" search for $1400/month or less. As someone stated earlier in this thread if you have someone paying you 1500/mon treat them like gold.........

  8. Bigsby


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    107   4:36am Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    yup1 says

    Bigsby says

    He's also arrogant and rude, but then he has to deal with people like you making

    pointless digs at him, so I can see why he's become like that.

    Pointless digs? Last time I checked this was a housing bubble blog.

    So? Times change. There hasn't been much of a bubble in most of the country for a while. And why so concerned about Roberto's investments? What are you trying to demonstrate? You talk like you have a better understanding of the value of the properties someone else bought. He may or may not be exaggerating. Who cares? He's clearly well ahead. Why does that get you in such a frenzy? Very strange.

  9. yup1


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    108   4:52am Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Roberto have you made 1 million dollars of appreciation?

  10. ELC


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    109   5:24am Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    A smarter person might realize that perhaps these automated site estimates lack accuracy from a 55k to 135k spread in estimates....

    It's worth 90k today. I'm the local expert,

    Look at the comparables it used to make it's calculations. I don't doubt you're an expert in your area but your objectivity is clouded. I'm paid $200-500 by investors and Realtors for my opinion. Of course when someone gets advice for free or without asking for it they don't value it. So I don't expect you to listen. From what I see these are perfect little investment houses IF there was potential for appreciation. But these properties don't have charm. They don't have, "location." They lack intrinsic value. It's like the difference between a prostitute and a woman of quality. With a woman of quality you still have the quality when she stops putting out. With a prostitute you're left with nothing.

  11. ELC


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    110   5:27am Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    anybody else have a 42k place rented for 875?

    Lot of people do. Slumlords are a dime a dozen.

  12. Bigsby


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    111   7:34am Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    ELC says

    From what I see these are perfect little investment houses IF there was potential for appreciation. But these properties don't have charm. They don't have, "location." They lack intrinsic value. It's like the difference between a prostitute and a woman of quality. With a woman of quality you still have the quality when she stops putting out. With a prostitute you're left with nothing.

    All of his properties appear to have appreciated, a good number of them substantially, so where does that leave your argument?

  13. lostand confused


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    112   7:46am Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Bigsby says

    ELC says



    From what I see these are perfect little investment houses IF there was potential for appreciation. But these properties don't have charm. They don't have, "location." They lack intrinsic value. It's like the difference between a prostitute and a woman of quality. With a woman of quality you still have the quality when she stops putting out. With a prostitute you're left with nothing.


    All of his properties appear to have appreciated, a good number of them substantially, so where does that leave your argument?

    Well, my colleague here in the midwest bought a 50k house that was in foreclosure. She needs to put 5-10k worth of work. But a SFR and rents for about 900 in that neighbourhood. Nice place, close to a lake, ok school and not much crime-blue collar and somewhat close to job centers. She is already trying to close on a similar property-another SFR for 38k.

    The risk here is minimal- Between the two houses, it is more or less than 100k-all expenses included. Now if I am not moving back to CA, I was seriouly thinking of buying one-38k for house!! Not bad house actually-just in this part of mid-west, the landlord is responsible for snow removal from the driveway. But apart from that ok for the income.

    Now contrast that to the bay area- two houses in a similar area would probably set me back 800k? These are ok low crime areas, but certainly not prime.

    The midwest has not seen a strong bounce like Phoenix. So prices are still affordable, but firming up and started to rise. But in the ok neighbourhoods, deals are still available.

    To me a 50 k house that nets 900 bucks a month is much better than a 500k house that gets what 2.5k or so?? Now if I was a rich oil sheik, then these things do not matter or if I bought in the late 90s/early 2000s, then they won't matter either. But in the current business environment, they do matter- at least to me. I just don't want to get into debt with just appreciation as my only plan of paying it off.

  14. Bigsby


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    113   8:11am Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    lostand confused says

    To me a 50 k house that nets 900 bucks a month is much better than a 500k house that gets what 2.5k or so?? Now if I was a rich oil sheik, then these things do not matter or if I bought in the late 90s/early 2000s, then they won't matter either. But in the current business environment, they do matter- at least to me. I just don't want to get into debt with just appreciation as my only plan of paying it off.

    Clearly though, appreciation also isn't Roberto's only plan. In fact, it doesn't seem to be the basis of his plan given his comments about his rental income vs PITI and the cashflow that generates.

  15. lostand confused


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    114   8:20am Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Bigsby says

    Clearly though, appreciation also isn't Roberto's only plan. In fact, it
    doesn't seem to be the basis of his plan given his comments about his rental
    income vs PITI and the cashflow that generates.

    Well, I was talking about buying property in low cost areas vs high cost areas. If I stayed in the mid-west for a few years, I can buy maybe 5 properties and between my income and the rent , I can pay it off and be mortgage free or at least have a cushion if I lose my job for a while or some such.

    But if I just bought two or three houses in the bay area or southern california, I would owe a lot of money. That worries me-as I am debt free now. Now I do have a small inheritance and can afford a house. I was really thinking of buying farmland with it, since I am in the midwest already-but that is in a massive bubble too. Maybe I am thinking when I move back, I might look for a good deal and end up with a duplex or triplex or fourplex in a decent area . Just don't want to get into obscene amount of debt. I really wonder, barring obscene inflation, how much inflation is left in the high price areas??

  16. Bigsby


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    115   8:36am Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    lostand confused says

    Well, I was talking about buying property in low cost areas vs high cost areas. If I stayed in the mid-west for a few years, I can buy maybe 5 properties and between my income and the rent , I can pay it off and be mortgage free or at least have a cushion if I lose my job for a while or some such.

    But if I just bought two or three houses in the bay area or southern california, I would owe a lot of money. That worries me-as I am debt free now. Now I do have a small inheritance and can afford a house. I was really thinking of buying farmland with it, since I am in the midwest already-but that is in a massive bubble too. Maybe I am thinking when I move back, I might look for a good deal and end up with a duplex or triplex or fourplex in a decent area . Just don't want to get into obscene amount of debt. I really wonder, barring obscene inflation, how much inflation is left in the high price areas??

    Well yeah, but Phoenix isn't exactly a high priced area, at least not the properties Roberto's been buying.

  17. ELC


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    116   10:59am Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    lostand confused says

    But if I just bought two or three houses in the bay area or southern california, I would owe a lot of money. That worries me-as I am debt free now.

    It's smart thinking to buy high end but not where the stupid money is, i.e. Southern Cal. Buying one 500k house in the right area may not give you quite as much cash flow as five 100k torture chambers but you will eventually make a killing on the appreciation.

    Isn't it better to have one high class renter than five losers who can only afford to rent a 100k house? Think of the segment of society that your dealing with. Granted, most vultures are as trashy as their tenants so they couldn't relate to an educated tenant anyway, but high end is a much easier and profitable way to go. Let's put it this way. If you're mucking out your own houses and managing your own tenants you don't have the mindset it takes to understand high end real estate. Not that Donald Trump is a role model but he saw what his father went through as a slumlord and focused on high end once it was his turn. At least he learned what not to do from his father.

    Why even set foot into neighborhoods like that? Why even bring that into your consciousness. People can only afford a 100k house because there's something wrong with them. Either they have drug or alcohol problems, are mentally defective, have some sort of attitude problem... Whatever the case. For me it's a hornets nest that I don't want to be anywhere close to. Nevermind be part in perpetuating it!

  18. David Losh


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    117   12:07pm Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    ELC says

    People can only afford a 100k house because there's something wrong with them.

    Because lost, and confused is debt free.

    Debt is the issue. Owing $100K is less than owing $500K.

    A $100K property has a better chance of appreciation than a $500K property, because the buyer pool is larger.

    Debt is the issue. You can pay off $100K faster than $500K, and according to people here it's a smart use of cheap money to owe $500K.

    Most people should be looking at an over all financial picture rather than the price, or terms of a place to stash you stuff.

  19. ELC


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    118   1:20pm Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    David Losh says

    A $100K property has a better chance of appreciation than a $500K property, because the buyer pool is larger.

    The small buyer pool is why you get better deals on higher end houses. If the seller picks a clueless Realtor the house can rot on the market for years. That's where the opportunity lies. Sure there's less buyers but the buyers are better qualified. And it only takes one buyer. The idea is to team up with Realtors who are well connected. Of course there's more to it than just entering it into the MLS. Sure it may take longer to sell a higher end home but it will sell. I train Realtors who won't take a listing that's under 10mil. Their houses almost always sell by their connections. For them the MLS is pretty much useless.

    BTW I was comparing five 100k houses vs one 500k house. Either way he'll owe 500k.

  20. ELC


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    119   1:34pm Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    lostand confused says

    To me a 50 k house that nets 900 bucks a month is much better than a 500k house that gets what 2.5k or so??

    Where I am in S. Florida you can buy a house that's worth 2 million (in a sane world) for 500k. Great neighborhood, on the water, deep water dock, great location, stylish etc. For 50k here you get a shitbox that I would be ashamed to let a human being live in no matter how much they are deperate enough to pay me.

    So the way I look at it eventually sanity will prevail and for 500k you'll have something of value at least. I just can't see owning garbage. "Nothing from nothing leaves nothing."

  21. ELC


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    120   1:45pm Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    lostand confused says

    I just don't want to get into debt with just appreciation as my only plan of paying it off.

    Debt (leverage) multiplies your potential gain as well as potential loss. That's just the way it is. ALSO the ability to forego reward can multiply potential gain.

  22. Bigsby


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    121   1:49pm Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    ELC says

    The small buyer pool is why you get better deals on higher end houses. If the seller picks a clueless Realtor the house can rot on the market for years. That's where the opportunity lies. Sure there's less buyers but the buyers are better qualified. And it only takes one buyer. The idea is to team up with Realtors who are well connected. Of course there's more to it than just entering it into the MLS. Sure it may take longer to sell a higher end home but it will sell. I train Realtors who won't take a listing that's under 10mil. Their houses almost always sell by their connections. For them the MLS is pretty much useless.

    BTW I was comparing five 100k houses vs one 500k house. Either way he'll owe 500k.

    Except that Roberto was saying he was getting in the region of $1500 for his 100k properties. Let's be conservative and say he'll only get $1200. That's $6000. Show me where you can get $6000 rent for a single 500k property.

  23. ELC


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    122   2:21pm Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    lostand confused says

    To me a 50 k house that nets 900 bucks a month

    Do you know of such a deal or are you using one of Roberto's fantasies as an example? If only i could invest 250k in this economy and have enough income to have all my bills paid. This is what dreams are made of. I know my market here very well, and for sure it can't be done. But who knows maybe in a galaxy far far away? A desert wasteland perhaps. :)

  24. ELC


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    123   2:26pm Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Bigsby says

    All of his properties appear to have appreciated, a good number of them substantially, so where does that leave your argument?

    No one will know how he's done unless he actually sells them. It's just all talk otherwise. You know very well appraisals vary widely, zillow is nonsense. His properties appreciated only in his own mind and everyone thinks their garbage is golden.

  25. Bigsby


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    124   2:31pm Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    ELC says

    Bigsby says

    All of his properties appear to have appreciated, a good number of them substantially, so where does that leave your argument?

    No one will know how he's done unless he actually sells them. It's just all talk otherwise. You know very well appraisals vary widely, zillow is nonsense. His properties appreciated only in his own mind and everyone thinks their garbage is golden.

    Fine, but that's all people need to say in response to him. That, however, is not what people do.

  26. ELC


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    125   2:38pm Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Bigsby says

    That, however, is not what people do.

    If you mean that they're picking on him keep in mind he can dish it out pretty good too.

  27. ELC


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    126   2:56pm Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Bigsby says

    Show me where you can get $6000 rent for a single 500k property.

    It happens all the time. My friend is paying 5k a month for a condo on the intercoastal where other units in the building are selling for 500k. Why she pays this I don't know. It looks very impressive on the inside but it still can be had for 500k.

    Just take a look at some of these places renting for 5-6k in Fort Lauderdale. Many of these can be had for 500k. http://www.zillow.com/homes/fort-lauderdale_rb/#/homes/for_rent/Fort-Lauderdale-FL/house,apartment_condo_type/31606_rid/3-_beds/1391670-1670004_price/5000-6000_mp/26.251854,-79.93103,26.029947,-80.368423_rect/10_zm/

  28. Bigsby


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    127   3:10pm Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  
  29. Bigsby


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    128   3:11pm Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    ELC says

    Bigsby says

    That, however, is not what people do.

    If you mean that they're picking on him keep in mind he can dish it out pretty good too.

    No, I don't mean they are picking on him. A number of posters appear to be determined to show him to be wrong irrespective of the facts. They appear to resent the fact that he might actually have done all right.

  30. ELC


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    129   3:52pm Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Bigsby says

    They appear to resent the fact that he might actually have done all right.

    Since no one knows the future I have to accept that he's doing all right. The thought of having all my money tied up in what he has it tied up in just gives me the willies. But people without any guts never make it big. I know that.

  31. ELC


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    130   3:58pm Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Bigsby says

    When I click on the houses on the right at 500k, the rent 'zestimate' is at or well below $3000, so which ones am I supposed to be looking at?

    Look at the houses asking 6k for rent. Also notice the rent Zestimate is around 3k even though they are asking for twice as much. Of course not all 500k houses are renting for 6k but you can't just look up 500k homes and look at a 3k Zestimate and think you're getting the true picture. It takes skill to find the 500k home that will rent for 6k as well as the 500k house that will sell for 2mil in two years. They're out there the problem is there's no one on the infomertials teaching how to find them. Which is all the better.

  32. David Losh


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    131   4:54pm Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    ELC says

    the 500k house that will sell for 2mil in two years. They're out there the problem is there's no one on the infomertials teaching how to find them. Which is all the better.

    OK, I read through your comments here and you hit the low point with this last one.

    That $500K crap shack isn't going to be worth $2Million no matter how much wishing, and praying you do.

    It's a crap shack, along with thousands of other $500K crap shacks.

    I don't need to waste my time looking at listings. The bank is in control of your market the same as it is in Arizona. I don't have to think about it, because the numbers are run by the banks daily.

    Once your market place hits equilibrium with what banks want it to be they will pull out all the stops to clear inventory no matter how low the prices go.

    No one needs, I mean the Fed, Fannie, Fredie, or MBSs to do anything other than roll over into performing loans, then pull the plug, and get out of that quagmire with as much cash as they can.

  33. lostand confused


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    132   5:20pm Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    ELC says

    Do you know of such a deal or are you using one of Roberto's fantasies as an
    example?

    Yes my colleague just bought it. It is in the mid-west. I went by to look at it. Not bad, it is primarily a Hispanic neighbourhood, but blue collar, working class , close to a lake, ok school district and ok commute to work centers and walkable distance to a park and lake. The mid west prices have not bounced back like other areas. They are starting to firm up and go up a bit. It is actually a SFR.

    Of course here you have to deal with snow, ice and the extra wear and tear to your house, but still, the prices are cheap.

  34. ELC


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    133   5:24pm Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    David Losh says

    It's a crap shack, along with thousands of other $500K crap shacks.

    If it's on the intercoastal or ocean it's desirable regardless of the structure built on it. You seem to believe what's true of 50k homes is true of 500k+ homes. BTW, I mean 500k homes in my area (especially Palm Beach FL.) Of course in the SF Bay area it has to be a pretty undesirable home for 500k but that's what weed does to people with money.

  35. ELC


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    134   5:32pm Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    lostand confused says

    I went by to look at it. Not bad, it is primarily a Hispanic neighbourhood, but blue collar, working class , close to a lake, ok school district and ok commute to work centers and walkable distance to a park and lake.

    If there are good employment opportunities in the area then it sounds pretty safe. The walkability is a big thing these days too. I'm totally out of touch with the midwest.

  36. Robert Sproul


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    135   7:14pm Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    Yep. I buy under market price, by taking over short sales where the buyer has failed, and closing cash... This home would have solid for much more in a regular sale. Then, I remodel them, and refinance.

    I wade through miles of blowhard bullshit looking for tips on how to operate in this bank manipulated marketplace. Actionable info is rare. Thanks R.

  37. JodyChunder


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    Victorville, CA

    136   7:39pm Sat 26 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    ELC says

    If it's on the intercoastal or ocean it's desirable regardless of the structure built on it.

    It's still Floriduh, dude. The Ohio of the South.

  38. ELC


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    Fort Lauderdale, FL

    137   5:36am Sun 27 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Robert Sproul says


    Yep. I buy under market price, by taking over short sales where the buyer has failed, and closing cash... This home would have solid for much more in a regular sale. Then, I remodel them, and refinance.

    I wade through miles of blowhard bullshit looking for tips on how to operate in this bank manipulated marketplace. Actionable info is rare. Thanks R.

    Where is the original post to this? I bet he deleted it.

    So Roberto tell us exactly how you find and take over these failed short sales! That would actually be helpful.

  39. ELC


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    Fort Lauderdale, FL

    138   2:23pm Sun 27 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    I have business contacts established over my 17 years in the business here. You'd have to make friends with agents who list short sales, which should be very possible to do.

    I would do an MLS search for short sales then extract a contact list from those results.

    What circumstances would make a short sale fall through on the buyers side? I always thought it was the bank or the second lien holder that ended up killing the deal.

  40. inflection point


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    139   5:52pm Sun 27 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Investors and flippers. We know how this story will eventually end.

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