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Housing Market Rebound Fails To Charge Economy


By Bubbabear   Follow   Thu, 24 Jan 2013, 12:38pm PST   998 views   20 comments
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The U.S. housing market is on the mend, but the so-called "missing piston" of the world's biggest economy doesn't have enough power to get the broader recovery firing on all cylinders any time soon.

http://m.nbcnews.com/business/economywatch/housing-market-rebound-fails-recharge-economy-1C6859650

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David9   Thu, 24 Jan 2013, 12:49pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 1

Really ? omg.

Raw   Thu, 24 Jan 2013, 1:11pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 2

First it was real estate prices still had another 65% to crash.
Then real estate was not recovering.
Now real estate was in another bubble.
2 years from now when prices take a 10% pullback after going up 100%, they will say "See? I told you"
Is there anyone not living in a World of Wacky?

JodyChunder   Thu, 24 Jan 2013, 1:55pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 3

Raw says

Is there anyone not living in a World of Wacky?

But it's a wacky world -- and wacky is being G-rated about it.

Bubbabear   Thu, 24 Jan 2013, 11:58pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 4

JodyChunder says

Raw says

Is there anyone not living in a World of Wacky?

But it's a wacky world -- and wacky is being G-rated about it.

What's going to be even more Wacky will be our rude awakening:
The IMF cuts global growth and finally admits to the EU recession existing. Also the EU recession is a good test to see if their central bank can spur growth with its old tricks. If they can't, then the fed reserve will be in the same kind of difficult situation.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-23/imf-cuts-global-growth-sees-2013-european-recession

Mobi   Fri, 25 Jan 2013, 12:35am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 5

Base on the Japan's experiences, I think we will muddle through for the next 5-10 years bearing a Europe collapse. So, there will always be mixed economical news. I hope they do not pump the housing price too fast this time tho.

Mick Russom   Fri, 25 Jan 2013, 1:01am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 6

The chinese buying real estate isnt going to help the USSA. Neither is the oligarchs buying houses in bulk.

The middle class is underwater and wages are stagnant and U6 is 15%.

Homeboy   Fri, 25 Jan 2013, 3:53am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike (1)     Comment 7

I wonder what it would take for people to realize that trading houses back and forth, or securities, or tulips, or whatever, does not make a healthy economy. America used to produce things that had value.

Nobody   Fri, 25 Jan 2013, 3:57am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 8

The housing market is turning around, because of the investment from China. Not definitely because the economy has turned around with inflation. So there will be more money for rich to hoard to increase the price of everyday necessities.

Either way I see it, the middle class is screwed.

I bet you Wong will make a comment in defense of Chinese investors.

inflection point   Fri, 25 Jan 2013, 4:18am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 9

You cannot blame the Chinese (or anyone else) for trying to turn their dollars (whose value continues to decrease because of the FEDS expansion) to something physcial.

David Losh   Sun, 27 Jan 2013, 9:58am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 10

Mobi says

Base on the Japan's experiences, I think we will muddle through for the next 5-10 years

I'm tired of hearing about Japan, and ZIRP.

Japan, like Germany, is a confined homogeneous society, they were able to do what they want. They are huge economies, but focussed, and directed, a lot by government control.

We'll need something more, because our economy is constantly changing. We have societal diversification that creates demand. We have options that Japan, or Germany, don't have.

I personally don't see where we need a housing recovery. We have tons of housing units, and the ability to add millions more at a moments notice. I don't see adding supply at this point being an advatage, but I don't see any reason for scarcity.

We should move on, and let the housing market flounder along the way it always used to before 1998.

Mick Russom   Sun, 27 Jan 2013, 11:05am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 11

David Losh says

I personally don't see where we need a housing recovery.

If we have a housing "recovery", the middle class is finished.

mell   Sun, 27 Jan 2013, 11:08am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 12

Mick Russom says

David Losh says

I personally don't see where we need a housing recovery.

If we have a housing "recovery", the middle class is finished.

Bingo - all that housing inflation does is shifting the multiplier of avg. yearly salary to house price upwards to even more unsustainable levels again. Here in the bay area 5-10 x is fairly normal.

Raw   Sun, 27 Jan 2013, 11:29am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 13

mell says

Mick Russom says

David Losh says

I personally don't see where we need a housing recovery.

If we have a housing "recovery", the middle class is finished.

Bingo - all that housing inflation does is shifting the multiplier of avg. yearly salary to house price upwards to even more unsustainable levels again. Here in the bay area 5-10 x is fairly normal.

You get what you pay for.
If you go to Nebraska, a teenager working for Taco Bell can buy a 5 bedroom home with a swimming pool.
But then, who wants to live where no one wants to live?

mell   Sun, 27 Jan 2013, 11:32am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 14

Raw says

mell says

Mick Russom says

David Losh says

I personally don't see where we need a housing recovery.

If we have a housing "recovery", the middle class is finished.

Bingo - all that housing inflation does is shifting the multiplier of avg. yearly salary to house price upwards to even more unsustainable levels again. Here in the bay area 5-10 x is fairly normal.

You get what you pay for.

If you go to Nebraska, a teenager working for Taco Bell can buy a 5 bedroom home with a swimming pool.

But then, who wants to live where no one wants to live?

Sure, but that's what salary adjustments are for. The salaries in the bay area are much higher than in Nebraska I would bet, but not high enough to keep the multiplier somewhere around 2-5x, where it should be. I bet in Nebraska it is closer to that (though I don't know).

iwog   Sun, 27 Jan 2013, 11:42am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 15

It's going to take a few years to ramp up construction jobs but they are coming. So far we have one single bull market year, and even if subdivisions were planned in 2012, they aren't ready to build yet.

Bubbabear   Sun, 27 Jan 2013, 10:57pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 16

chanakya4773 says

unemployment won't keep falling

...and the employment participation will keep falling
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

david1   Sun, 27 Jan 2013, 11:19pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 17

Billybigrig says

chanakya4773 says



unemployment won't keep falling


...and the employment participation will keep falling
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

Move that graph out a bit more and you will see the LT trend....like back to 1970 when the baby boom entered the work force..

And now they are coming out of it...

Bubbabear   Mon, 28 Jan 2013, 12:23am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 18

david1 says

Billybigrig says

chanakya4773 says

unemployment won't keep falling

...and the employment participation will keep falling

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

Move that graph out a bit more and you will see the LT trend....like back to 1970 when the baby boom entered the work force..

And now they are coming out of it...

Talk is cheap ! Show me the money...

FortWayne   Mon, 28 Jan 2013, 12:26am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 19

Housing based economy wasn't real, so it does make sense that recovery in housing (whatever it means) won't really fix all the economic ills, which were often ignored during the bubble years.

David Losh   Mon, 28 Jan 2013, 1:07am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 20

iwog says

It's going to take a few years to ramp up construction jobs but they are coming.

Construction money moved into rental units, both vertical, and complex. It just makes sense that people will rent to deleverage from the mounting mortgage debt that is clogging the system.

Even if we do build more housing units to add to the glut of housing units already built between 1998 to 2008 it will be at a cost of construction price point.

I just don't see where construction of more crap shacks will do anything for the price of housing other than make new construction like buying a car; once you live in it it will lose half it's value.

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