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Shiller: Housing market comeback may be an illusion

By HousingBoom   Follow   Fri, 25 Jan 2013, 9:41am   5,045 views   117 comments
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http://www.nj.com/business/index.ssf/2013/01/shiller_housing_market_comebac.html

The housing market has been declining for something like six years now, it could go on, that’s my worry,” Shiller daid. “The short-term indicators are up now, it definitely looks better, but we saw that in 2009.

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1. Raw Follow Befriend 10 threads 694 comments

   38   10:30pm Sun 27 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Thomas, your chart clearly shows that Bay area prices outperforms inflation. That is what I was trying to say. Nothing goes up in a steady predictable, so you can expect major pull backs every now and then. These pull backs are major buying opportunities, which no one should miss. As they say....buy when there is blood on the streets.

2. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 15 threads 2,838 comments

   39   10:34pm Sun 27 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   nope.. price inflation came from irrational belief of home owners/buyers.. it started much earlier than than 2001. Nationally, Had nothing do with Int% rates population growth or anything else. Just like back in early 90s as inflation dropped and all other factors..people expected too much.. Robert Shiller - On Home Prices Always Going Up

3. HousingBoom Follow Befriend (1) 48 threads 172 comments

   40   10:35pm Sun 27 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike   I remember in 2006 when most people laughed at the idea of falling home prices. hilarious! Wages are now falling, taxes are increasing, cost of living is increasing and now home prices should go up? no way

4. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 15 threads 2,838 comments

   41   10:37pm Sun 27 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Raw says Thomas, your chart clearly shows that Bay area prices outperforms inflation. That is what I was trying to say. your looking at bubbles... not any real out performance... eventually it corrects.

5. Bap33 Follow Befriend (3) 12 threads 3,095 comments

   42   10:40pm Sun 27 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Raw says HousingBoom says Raw says The real estate market is too big for a "pump and dump" scam. It's the real thing. LOL LOL LOL

6. Bap33 Follow Befriend (3) 12 threads 3,095 comments

   43   10:42pm Sun 27 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Thedaytoday says Hysteresis says shiller's got lots of data. that and he's always careful with his wording is what i like about him. he was also one of the first people to popularize the idea that people's (irrational) behavior greatly affects economics. he has a deeper understanding of markets than pretty much everyone on patnet. yet, i think most readers prefer the anecdotal, unsubstantiated, hyperbolic and often retarded claims made here. sad. Shiller is full of shit, time after time Shiller hid the truth, how many bubbles did they ignore or misrepresent and for how long! Fuck these bitch assholes. I was screaming at bubbles between 2000-2006, "every single financial expert" said, " it was not a bubble". There is no BUBBLE! Liars , thieves and murderers. I agree 100% reduce your caffine intake

7. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 15 threads 2,838 comments

   44   10:42pm Sun 27 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (2)   Raw says Nothing goes up in a steady predictable, so you can expect major pull backs every now and then. These pull backs are major buying opportunities, which no one should miss. no thats not the way it works.. steady predicable.. about most of the US housing has been flat on the whole.. homes are not to be traded and swapped for.. never been the case. A home is a consumable.. not a dividend paying stockor interest earning bond.

8. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 15 threads 2,838 comments

   45   10:48pm Sun 27 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   HousingBoom says I remember in 2006 when most people laughed at the idea of falling home prices. hilarious! i tried to tell some of past price declines SoCal in early 90s.. bloodbath ! but past news articles do not appear on the web so easily.. And than again.. many that come to Cali do get pumped the idea from realtors ITS ALWAYS BEEN expensive line.. WOW ! talk about pimps and hustlers!

9. HousingBoom Follow Befriend (1) 48 threads 172 comments

   46   11:09pm Sun 27 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   If you look at Thomas' chart, you can see that every housing boom collapsed back to pre-bubble prices. If history repeats, then we are about 50-60% done with this collapse. We have more downside. Will this time be different? Probably not

10. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 15 threads 2,838 comments

    47   11:48pm Sun 27 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   chanakya4773 says WRONG !! the index that you showed is INFLATION ADJUSTED. thats right.. flat adjusted for inflation. Predictable pattern ! It should be, by now clear as daylight if a region is getting HOT as they called it back in the bubble days.. something is amiss.. and going wrong ! Cause every historical example of local bubbles as far back the 1920s Florida land speculation has ended in disaster. Today, the only meaningful land where prices are up.. may well be the Natural Gas rich regions of middle America.. (fly over states full of people guns and bible -- now Billionaires) But they are pumping and selling real income producing products.. you certainly dont hear Realtors talking about that.. far from it !!!

11. Hysteresis Follow Befriend (2) 14 threads 648 comments

    48   4:05am Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   epitaph says Hes better than the boom doom and gloom guy that's for sure, but saying the recovery could take 50 years is a little far out. I can't even imagine what 2014 will be like let alone the second half of this year. I do understand that he analyzes a lot of data, more than we do here, and I know fundamentally he is right there is a lot of headwinds for this recovery. But to end it with "This might take 50 years" really spoke to me more about his character than his analysis. nah. you're mis-interpreting what he said. he didn't say a recovery was 50 years away, he said another big bubble is far way and he threw out 50 years. here's the quote: He added, “I think we’re pretty far from irrational exuberance, maybe 50 years away.”

12. inflection point Follow Befriend 4 threads 266 comments Fremont, CA

    49   7:22am Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   its interesting that a man is cautious in his comments is called a shill.

13. Zakrajshek Follow Befriend 67 comments Chico, CA

    50   8:00am Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Until interest rates are allowed to go back to historical levels, 7.5 to 8%, nobody will know what the real house prices, stock prices, bond prices, or gold prices are.

14. Sakman Follow Befriend 8 comments

    51   8:20am Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Zakrajshek says Until interest rates are allowed to go back to historical levels, 7.5 to 8%, nobody will know what the real house prices, stock prices, bond prices, or gold prices are. Exactly, you said it perfectly. . ."allowed" to go back to historical levels. The implication is that the market is well controlled. So, while many people here are frustrated by the feeling that the market should not be moving up, the reality is that it is being controlled to do so. It is another stealth bailout, and it will continue until the banks are in a safe zone. There are studies out there that show that in a world full of idiots...the intelligent are made to look like fools. Keep that in mind if you decide to keep your housing bear hat on. Good Luck Out There.

15. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,616 comments

    52   10:29am Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Zakrajshek says Until interest rates are allowed to go back to historical levels, 7.5 to 8%, nobody will know what the real house prices, stock prices, bond prices, or gold prices are. Interest rates are the level that they always are when unemployement is high and the economy is struggling. Rates are not going to rise until unemployment falls down to historic levels. House prices, stock prices, gold prices, or any asset prices vary with the cost of money. There is no "real" level....

16. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,000 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    53   10:39am Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   tatupu70 says Interest rates are the level that they always are when unemployement is high and the economy is struggling. Rates are not going to rise until unemployment falls down to historic levels. House prices, stock prices, gold prices, or any asset prices vary with the cost of money. There is no "real" level.... Easy to get unemployment numbers down. That doesn't mean much when many of the employed are underemployed. i.e. PhD working in retail selling shoes. My worry is that we get the unemployment looking better and start moving interest rates up, only to find out that people still don't have any money to pump up the economy. How long do we go down this path of being broke but in denial. Years and years I bet. My kids will have a name for the 3 lost decades I am sure. They will laugh at our stupidity. FYI, I am buying gold for my kids. It'll be the best present for their future.

17. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 229 threads 2,766 comments

    54   10:47am Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike (1)   tatupu70 says Interest rates are the level that they always are when unemployement is high and the economy is struggling. Do you really think so ??? * * * tatupu70 says Rates are not going to rise until unemployment falls down to historic levels. And when will that happen??

18. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,616 comments

    55   10:58am Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Call it Crazy says Do you really think so ??? I guess it depends on what you mean when you say "interest rates". LIBOR, 30 yr. treasury, prime rate, or mortgage rate. The trends look different depending on which you choose. Call it Crazy says And when will that happen?? If/when we can get wealth/income disparity down to normal levels.

19. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,616 comments

    56   11:05am Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   RentingForHalfTheCost says Easy to get unemployment numbers down. I have to disagree with that one. It's not easy at all. Even the shoe company isn't going to hire a PhD if they have enough workers to cover their needs. Employment only increases with more demand. Looking at the US as a whole, consumers are not broke. It's a distribution problem, not a lack of money probem.

20. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,000 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    57   2:23pm Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   tatupu70 says RentingForHalfTheCost says Easy to get unemployment numbers down. I have to disagree with that one. It's not easy at all. Even the shoe company isn't going to hire a PhD if they have enough workers to cover their needs. Employment only increases with more demand. Looking at the US as a whole, consumers are not broke. It's a distribution problem, not a lack of money probem. We already have the gov't ability to create fake demand. This is not an open market. We can build bridges and roads to nowhere and have the whole country employed. Won't help a bit though. We need real employment in order to justify any interest rate increase. That is not going to happen anytime soon. It'll be 3 decades of lost growth when we are through. Not 1, not 2, but 3. At the heart of many of our earning years. No house purchase will save you at all, we will all suffer.

21. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,780 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    58   2:27pm Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Yes, the US economy is so bad that housing prices cannot possibly increase... That is why the have been dropping over the past 12 months... Oh, they've actually been increasing over the past 12 months... That doesn't count! My analysis is perfect, so any increase must be manipulated or fake!

22. HousingBoom Follow Befriend (1) 48 threads 172 comments

    59   3:18pm Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   robertoaribas says Yes, the US economy is so bad that housing prices cannot possibly increase... That is why the have been dropping over the past 12 months... The economy is in bad shape only because we are printing trillions out of thin air just to keep it afloat. We all know that we can't print forever and keep rates at record lows for too long. Everyone is hoping for or expects a soft landing and the Fed to GRADUALLY raise rates. I am betting that it will not be a soft landing and rates will go through the roof once the bond bubble bursts. No burst of a bubble is ever a soft landing.

23. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 15 threads 2,838 comments

    60   3:22pm Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   robertoaribas says Yes, the US economy is so bad that housing prices cannot possibly increase... That is why the have been dropping over the past 12 months.. as you said.. SFBA is crazy wacked out place anyway.. prices makes no sense.

24. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,616 comments

    61   3:40pm Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   underwaterman says It's a non-answer. Answering a question with a question. It's the only answer. Neither I nor you know what policies the government will enact over the next 4, 8, 20 years. So how can I tell you when wealth disparity will end?

25. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,616 comments

    62   3:43pm Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   RentingForHalfTheCost says We can build bridges and roads to nowhere and have the whole country employed. Won't help a bit though. We need real employment in order to justify any interest rate increase This is what you are missing. If you had the whole country working, it would create real jobs because the people who currently have nothing would actually have disposable income. This would create tremendous demand, which would cause companies to increase production and create jobs. Real jobs.

26. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,616 comments

    63   3:44pm Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   underwaterman says Watch tutu70 ignore or distort the evidence you presented. There is no correlation between unemployment and interest rates as your charts demonstrate. As I posted earlier, mortgage rates do not equal interest rates. Why don't you look at a chart of LIBOR, 30 year treasuries or the prime rate vs. unemployment and get back with me.

27. ELC Follow Befriend (3) 3 threads 657 comments Fort Lauderdale, FL

    64   3:45pm Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Sakman says It is another stealth bailout, and it will continue until the banks are in a safe zone. You're talking like they know what they're doing. They don't. This is the first time anything to this extent has happened. If you want to risk your money in one of the greatest fraud inspired experiments there ever was go right ahead. For me, when I see the DOJ and the FBI protecting these banksters, lying right to the camera I know it's way over my head.

28. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 15 threads 2,838 comments

    65   3:48pm Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   God forbid we actually make products we can actually sell domestic and internationally.. Build factories, plants and 2nd tier vendors who also hire and spend withing the supply chain.. but thats all dirty water and dirty air... we cant have that in the USA.

29. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,616 comments

    66   3:54pm Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   thomaswong.1986 says God forbid we actually make products we can actually sell domestic and internationally.. Build factories, plants and 2nd tier vendors who also hire and spend withing the supply chain.. but thats all dirty water and dirty air... we cant have that in the USA. Not to ruin your good story, but I think it has more to do with the fact that people in other countries work in sweatshops for $1/day.

30. Vicente Follow Befriend (8) 203 threads 4,403 comments Davis, CA

    67   3:58pm Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   thomaswong.1986 says Raw says Nothing goes up in a steady predictable, so you can expect major pull backs every now and then. These pull backs are major buying opportunities, which no one should miss. IF ONLY that chart's dotted lines were playing out! If it were, we'd be at or very close to an actual bottom now. Instead, every effort is extended to prop things up, so we're not there. Yet.

31. Sakman Follow Befriend 8 comments

    68   4:02pm Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   robertoaribas says Yes, the US economy is so bad that housing prices cannot possibly increase... That is why the have been dropping over the past 12 months... Oh, they've actually been increasing over the past 12 months... That doesn't count! My analysis is perfect, so any increase must be manipulated or fake! "I don't like reality to get it the way of my theories!" - Every armchair economist when they get plowed by market movements.

32. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 15 threads 2,838 comments

    69   4:10pm Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Vicente says If it were, we'd be at or very close to an actual bottom now. Instead, every effort is extended to prop things up, so we're not there. Yet. like to Govt sees it.. cant have people get thrown out of their home.. not to mention see local city/county prop tax revenue take a hit.. did you see all this govt interference in RE in prior decades.. No! of course they want to see prices go up beyond any rationality.

33. Vicente Follow Befriend (8) 203 threads 4,403 comments Davis, CA

    70   4:14pm Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   thomaswong.1986 says did you see all this govt interference in RE in prior decades.. No! Wrong. It goes back further. "Helping" the real estate market has been around a LOOONG time. At least as long as the home mortgage interest deduction has been around. I would argue further back than that. And it's not unwelcome is the thing, people actively lobby both citizens and real estate types for it. In my own community when a new development was proposed a few years ago, existing homeowners KILLED it dead because that might lower their property values which they wanted propped right where they were.

34. Raw Follow Befriend 10 threads 694 comments

    71   4:15pm Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   thomaswong.1986 says Vicente says If it were, we'd be at or very close to an actual bottom now. Instead, every effort is extended to prop things up, so we're not there. Yet. like to Govt sees it.. cant have people get thrown out of their home.. not to mention see local city/county prop tax revenue take a hit.. did you see all this govt interference in RE in prior decades.. No! of course they want to see prices go up beyond any rationality. Not a fair assessment. We did not have a crash of this magnitude since the great depression, so there was no need for the government to interfere until now. Real estate was crashing....major banks were collapsing and we were on the verge of a catastrophe. Government interference is what prevented doomsday for us. The credit goes to Obama and Bernanke. How can we ever thank them.

35. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 15 threads 2,838 comments

    72   4:25pm Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   tatupu70 says Not to ruin your good story, but I think it has more to do with the fact that people in other countries work in sweatshops for $1/day. 1 dollar a day or 20 dollars an hour make no difference.. when your talking increasing unit production... 1000s of units a day.. $160-250/day gets "absorbed" into product costing.. they become pennies per unit. only the journalists and the left use labor as excuse.. and never ask the CEOs about the real issues of modern mfg in the USA.

36. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 15 threads 2,838 comments

    73   4:28pm Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   TODAY | Aired on December 06, 2012 Exclusive: Brian Williams interviews Apple CEO In his first television interview since taking over from the late Steve Jobs, Apple CEO Tim Cook has made some profound changes at the company including one economic change that he shared exclusively with NBC’s Brian Williams. http://video.today.msnbc.msn.com/today/50100299#50100299 >> let's say our constitution was a little different and president obama called you in tomorrow and said get everybody out of china and do whatever you have to do, make these, make everything you make in the united states . what would that do to the price of this device? >> honestly, it's not so much about price, it's about the skills et cetera . over time , there are skills that are associated with manufacturing that have left the u.s. not necessarily people, but the education to stop producing them. >> that's sad. how do we get that back?

37. SFace Follow Befriend (2) 60 threads 1,298 comments Premium

    74   4:37pm Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   thomaswong.1986 says 1 dollar a day or 20 dollars an hour make no difference.. when your talking increasing unit production... 1000s of units a day.. $160-250/day gets "absorbed" into product costing.. they become pennies per unit. nominated I have no idea it takes 10 man-hours a day to manufacture 1000 units. Bubble gum maybe

38. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,616 comments

    75   4:54pm Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   thomaswong.1986 says only the journalists and the left use labor as excuse.. and never ask the CEOs about the real issues of modern mfg in the USA. Thomas--you can't be that naive. You know that jobs go to China because of labor cost. Whether you can admit it to yourself or not, you know it to be true. Why do companies move from California to Texas? It's certainly not beacause of the "skills" difference. Or from the union states to non-union states? Again--certainly not because of skills. CEOs may be politically correct in public, but you ask any CEO of a manufacturing company and labor costs are a HUGE focus.

39. thomaswong.1986 Follow Befriend 15 threads 2,838 comments

    76   5:23pm Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   SFace says nominated I have no idea it takes 10 man-hours a day to manufacture 1000 units. Bubble gum maybe absorption .. In January 2012, Apple reported its best quarterly earnings ever, with 53% of its revenue coming from the sale of 37 million iPhones. it doesnt have to be iphones.. you can pick t-shirts...frankly many consumers already bought 30 millions pieces of underwear during the same quarter. The concept is the same. Its everything else besides direct materials and direct labor in the realm of overhead costs that get hit the most. OH is certainly cheaper in Texas compared to CA.

40. Bap33 Follow Befriend (3) 12 threads 3,095 comments

    77   9:08am Tue 29 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   tatupu70 says Thomas--you can't be that naive. You know that jobs go to China because of labor cost. Whether you can admit it to yourself or not, you know it to be true. I submit there is more than the regulations of wages to be avoided when manufacturing jobs move to China. The EPA regs, the OSHA regs, Gov-State-and local taxes, plus the permitting of so many aspects of a plant and its componants .. as well as the same entities cost increases tied to each point of a product - tranportation of raw materials, manufactuing, transportation of completed materials, marketing, wholesaling, distributing, retailing - I think those things play a large portion of the reason a job (such as manufactuing) goes to china, along with the labor cost. Right?

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