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RealtyTrac, CoreLogic Confirm Housing Bear Thesis: 85-90% of REOHeld Off Market


By HousingBoom   Follow   Sun, 27 Jan 2013, 12:03pm PST   5,091 views   77 comments
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RealtyTrac, CoreLogic Confirm Housing Bear Thesis: 85-90% of REO Being Held Off Market, Meaning “Tight” Inventories Are Bogus

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/07/realtytrac-corelogic-confirm-housing-bear-thesis-85-90-of-reo-being-held-off-market-meaning-tight-inventories-are-bogus.html#5y9tQYtW81UaISZe.99

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David9   Wed, 30 Jan 2013, 7:13am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 38

robertoaribas says

you pay the tax stimulus REGARDLESS of whether you own a home or not...

Yep. But I found it interesting and post worthy that someone who probably does not follow patrick.net would come up with that statement.

postbubblesucess   Wed, 30 Jan 2013, 7:16am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 39

Trulia says my property went up 17.4% since last January. It was confirmed when my neighbor who bought 10 months ago sold his property 2 weeks ago for $47.5k. He bought for $38k and spent a lil too much in remodeling, but it looks nice. Mine was $43.5k and I've spent $3k remodeling. It's beautiful and wouldn't let it go for anything less than $52k at this point. My plan is to either rent it out or sell when it reaches $65k in a few years maybe sooner. After the next Bubble in about 5 years I'll buy again. Maybe the same place for $25k. Just some of the thoughts going through my head. What do you guys think?

David9   Wed, 30 Jan 2013, 7:21am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 40

postbubblesucess says

What do you guys think?

Yes ! Just because I and others have not found or pounced on a possible flip here in California does not mean YOU cannot profit from this .. market !

Mark D   Wed, 30 Jan 2013, 7:30am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 41

postbubblesucess says

Trulia says my property went up 17.4% since last January. It was confirmed when my neighbor who bought 10 months ago sold his property 2 weeks ago for $47.5k. He bought for $38k and spent a lil too much in remodeling, but it looks nice. Mine was $43.5k and I've spent $3k remodeling. It's beautiful and wouldn't let it go for anything less than $52k at this point. My plan is to either rent it out or sell when it reaches $65k in a few years maybe sooner. After the next Bubble in about 5 years I'll buy again. Maybe the same place for $25k. Just some of the thoughts going through my head. What do you guys think?

investors are still buying and inventory is still low. i would hold if i were you. prices are expected to go up this year.

HEY YOU   Wed, 30 Jan 2013, 11:14am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 42

New title for the link:
The Bulls are full of Bullshit.

iwog   Wed, 30 Jan 2013, 10:01pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 43

HEY YOU says

New title for the link:

The Bulls are full of Bullshit.

When are we going to stop being right and start being wrong?

Bears:

2009 Wrong
2010 Wrong
2011 Wrong
2012 Wrong

Go back and read some of the old posts when Robert and myself were predicting a flat market, and the board crashers were predicting horrible losses just around the corner......every year.....without fail.

yup1   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 12:23am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 44

iwog says

When are we going to stop being right and start being wrong?


Bears:


2009 Wrong
2010 Wrong
2011 Wrong
2012 Wrong

You could buy the same home in 2009, 2010, 2011, and through March of 2012 for the same price, in my area through July of 2012. Bulls have a 9 month increase in prices and are declaring victory. Bulls might be correct. Bulls could be wrong.

If Roberto is wrong that bitch is all in and will get killed. I hope that he is wrong and gets crushed. Of course if he is wrong, he will be claiming that he sold all his inventory for a profit or that all his shit is still rented out during great depression part 2.5

David9   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 1:15am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 45

It's like a twilight zone nightmare.

Again, like every morning, something interesting comes up, then after 10 seconds I find the catch.

Nice unit + location. $558 HOA ? Um, that's every month..

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Sherman-Oaks/4536-Colbath-Ave-91423/unit-11/home/4854008?utm_source=myredfin&utm_campaign=listings_update&utm_medium=email

Call it Crazy   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 2:31am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 46

yup1 says

You could buy the same home in 2009, 2010, 2011, and through March of 2012 for the same price, in my area through July of 2012. Bulls have a 9 month increase in prices and are declaring victory. Bulls might be correct. Bulls could be wrong.

Pretty much correct.... last 6 months have seen an improvement, we saw that in the beginning of 2011 too, (until it went back down...).

At least we're back to Jan. 1998 levels..... can you say "Recovery"??

*

yup1   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 4:20am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 47

robertoaribas says

yup1 says



If Roberto is wrong that bitch is all in and will get killed. I hope that he is wrong and gets crushed.


yeah, that jealousy thing is going to eat you alive!
Units I bought for 31.5K are now selling for over 70K, it would take a hell of a crash to bring me back to "just breaking even" let alone getting killed. Add in 2 years rent on that unit, and whatever... I could throw that one away, and it would have cost me less than the five years I owned a bmw m3 convertible!

We all know your story Roberto. If we crash again you will be liquidating just like most investors do.

By the way that graph you linked of Phoenix looks like a Dead Cat Bounce!

yup1   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 4:27am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 48

The stress in the Phoenix rental market will also get much much worse. Rents will come down. Investors will drop rents as they compete for renters with more and more available rentals. Hell in some price ranges nearly 90% of rentals posted on Craigslist allow pets. In healthier markets that number is below 40%. This to me is a huge sign of stress. Desperate landlords will eventually allow methlabs as long as the rent gets paid. It is simple supply and demand, Roberto. Massive rental supply with almost no increase in demand will lead to lower prices both for rent and for homes.

yup1   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 4:29am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 49

robertoaribas says

since 9 of my homes are free and clear, not sure how even someone as
dimwitted as you thinks I'll be forced to liquidate!

Now why if you believe what you say you believe would you own 9 rentals free and clear? You wouldn't you would cash out refi and buy more rentals. With that statement you prove that you are full of shit.

yup1   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 4:54am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 50

robertoaribas says

since 9 of my homes are free and clear, not sure how even someone as
dimwitted as you thinks I'll be forced to liquidate!

Link them!

yup1   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 5:47am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 51

robertoaribas says

If you weren't a complet dumbass, you'd know that cash-out refi of investment
properties, past 4 is impossible. Or else, I would... you really like calling
people "full of shit" or "liar" in real life, we know you are a pathetic
coward...

A search of your dumbass on Maricopa County shows since 01/01/2007 you have 8 Trust Deeds with your name on them totaling 999K. You need to do some explaining........

yup1   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 5:50am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 52

I can link all of the PDF's if you want. Like I said before if there is a downturn you are FUCKED!

yup1   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 6:04am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 53

You can look it up yourself

http://recorder.maricopa.gov/recdocdata/

Ribas
Robert
Deed of Trust
begin search 01/01/2007

yup1   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 6:08am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 54

robertoaribas says

a couple of refi's in there, so your off by a bit... Now, be a good boy, look up all the the home values :-)

A couple? 8 is not a couple it is at least a few. 999K holy fuck that is a lot of DEBT!

PockyClipsNow   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 6:10am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 55

You guys bashing roberto are jealous of his success. Very juvenile. Would be smarter to learn from him he knows his $hit.

yup1   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 6:15am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 56

PockyClipsNow says

You guys bashing roberto are jealous of his success. Very juvenile. Would be smarter to learn from him he knows his $hit.

Except for the fact that his FACTS are not FACTS! So you can learn from someone who distorts FACTS if you think that is wise.....

yup1   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 6:19am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 57

robertoaribas says

a couple of refi's in there, so your off by a bit... Now, be a good boy, look up all the the home values :-)

I see no Release of these deeds of trust which means yup you owe someone else 999K.

Secondly I do not see your name on 14 properties in Maricopa county since 01/01/2007. Now I guess you could own properties from pre 01/01/2007 but that would mean that you are very likely upsidedown on them........

yup1   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 6:26am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 58

I see the release so 775K.

I do not see your name on 14 properties post 01/01/2007?

yup1   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 6:33am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 59

yup1 says

I see the release so 775K.


I do not see your name on 14 properties post 01/01/2007?

I already corrected where I was wrong. Why is your name not on 14 properties like you claim?

David9   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 6:39am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 60

Wanted to place laughing icon here, didn't work.

Entertaining thread this afternoon...

PockyClipsNow   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 6:54am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 61

Yeah noobs think the free data on the internet is correct for deeds and titles. Its way wrong commonly. Such as a 2nd will forclose and it will look like on trulia that the propery sold for 20k when its worth 400k.

I really think yup is actually agngry at the fast rising prices and takes it out on roberto. I mean yup wont admit he was 100% wrong about where prices were headed he says 'dead cat bounce' which is denial - the market in AZ is so hot it can only keep going up. Same in coastal cali.

yup1   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 6:54am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 62

robertoaribas says

your stalking of me is very close to a line where I'm going to start sending
your info to the police. You've given me enough veiled threats on here, like
"somebody could come rob you..." etc as well.

I have never and will never threaten you, end of story. Why do you always go to some legal recourse threatening to sue me before and now threatening to send my info to the police? I would never touch you or threaten you.

You are on here bragging about the 14 soon to be 15 properties that you own. I am just wondering why I can't find them on the Maricopa recorder office?

yup1   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 6:57am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 63

PockyClipsNow says

Yeah noobs think the free data on the internet is correct for deeds and
titles. Its way wrong commonly. Such as a 2nd will forclose and it will look
like on trulia that the propery sold for 20k when its worth 400k.

I found 7 properties with his name on them so I guess some of the data is good.

PockyClipsNow says

I really think yup is actually agngry at the fast rising prices and takes it out
on roberto. I mean yup wont admit he was 100% wrong about where prices were
headed he says 'dead cat bounce' which is denial

Dead cat bounce is my opinion. I might be right.

yup1   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 7:07am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 64

robertoaribas says

So there is 1.6 million. Hell, we'll put it at 1.4 million to be even safer.


Then there's my 401k...
my state retirement, which will pay me $6000 a
month starting in 4 years...
stocks.
Mortgage I hold on a friends post
foreclosure purchase....
etc.

Why don't you retire already? 16 income properties, 6k/month pension, 401k as backup, social security in a few years, WTF are you working for?

yup1   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 7:11am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 65

Sequester if left unchanged which is likely is going to hurt the economy pretty bad. Pentagon has already announced 46k in layoffs, and a 10% drop in pay for contractors.........Home prices could drop pretty quick.

Bigsby   Tue, 5 Feb 2013, 2:42am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 66

robertoaribas says

underwaterman says

Did I miss your class on how to claim your a real estate expert by buying in a bubble?

Nope, since you bought in 2004, 2005 in california, you must have been to somebody's class on how to buy at the wrong time in a bubble! just like your silver "experts"!!!

Not to mention 2006.

Bigsby   Tue, 5 Feb 2013, 2:50am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 67

underwaterman says

robertoaribas says

underwaterman says

Did I miss your class on how to claim your a real estate expert by buying in a bubble?

Nope, since you bought in 2004, 2005 in california, you must have been to somebody's class on how to buy at the wrong time in a bubble! just like your silver "experts"!!!

Silly me. Following those billionaires and silver gurus like Eric Sprott, David Einhorn, Marc Faber, James Turk, James Rickards, Mike Mahoney, David Morgan, and the other 83 experts. I should have been following professor dumbass and his ignorant opinions.

Well, you wouldn't have completely screwed yourself over your real estate purchases for starters if you had done just that.

Bigsby   Tue, 5 Feb 2013, 2:56am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 68

I sense much anger in this one.

gbenson   Wed, 6 Feb 2013, 7:48am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 69

Underwaterman, you aren't scoring any points. This is a real estate blog and Roberto has proven he has his proverbial head on straight when it comes to sound real estate investing. You may disagree with him on any number of levels, but when it comes in investing in real estate, he has kicked your arse around the block, along with many others on here.

You'd do well to keep your mind a bit more open when he speaks, but it's your choice.

gbenson   Wed, 6 Feb 2013, 9:12am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 70

underwaterman says

I hope you bought in 2012 like he did

Damn straight... Here's mine, plus a 10th (3br home) that I bought pre-bubble in 2001. Note, I focused mainly on 1 or 3br condos in a very specific areas and in very specific complexes. All bought in cash and I really don't care how low they go as long as they keep renting, which they will in the areas I targeted.

I also appealed my property taxes on all of them immediately after I bought them so am paying less than half of what most everyone around me is.

Bigsby   Wed, 6 Feb 2013, 10:21am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 71

underwaterman says

robertoaribas says

what was the ROI on that out of curiosity?

A profit I converted to metals ahead of the idiot herd.

You made a profit selling a house in early 2012 that you bought in 2006? Good for you, but as you constantly attack the investments that Roberto actually demonstrates he has made, why don't you prove the truth of that statement?

Bigsby   Wed, 6 Feb 2013, 3:22pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 72

underwaterman says

Bigsby says

You made a profit selling a house in early 2012 that you bought in 2006? Good for you,

Your about 2 months behind there bug boy. Try and keep up.

I notice you didn't include the rest of the sentence. 2 months behind what by the way? Are you saying you posted the details of your home purchases 2 months ago? Post up the link. And no, I don't just mean the years and the states.

Bigsby   Wed, 6 Feb 2013, 3:45pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 73

underwaterman says

Bigsby says

Good for you,

Why don't you prove yourself there bug boy, that you provide any value in these forums at all instead of playing mommy to miss roberta.

And your contribution is what exactly? Presumably insulting every single person who disagrees with your hook, line and sinker take on gold and silver (what happened to that code of practice you pushed for when you first joined? Seemingly it only applies to others).
There are no guarantees with those two commodities and should be treated as such. Fine, make them part of your portfolio, but a small part. Didn't you say before that you went all in with your supposed housing profits? That strikes me as a rather strange approach for someone who claims they intend to retire in 3 years.
From what you're doing with PMs, I take it that between 2003 and 2006 you were spending all your time on RE bull websites nodding your head in total agreement with the line that they were peddling. How did that work out for you? You appear to consume but are incapable of digesting.

pdg   Wed, 6 Feb 2013, 11:40pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 74

yup1 says

robertoaribas says

So there is 1.6 million. Hell, we'll put it at 1.4 million to be even safer.

Then there's my 401k...
my state retirement, which will pay me $6000 a

month starting in 4 years...
stocks.
Mortgage I hold on a friends post

foreclosure purchase....
etc.

Why don't you retire already? 16 income properties, 6k/month pension, 401k as backup, social security in a few years, WTF are you working for?

Everyone on the internet has a huge dick.

Bigsby   Thu, 7 Feb 2013, 1:38am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 75

underwaterman says

Yes, what fine investment and intelligent analysis that is. Why are you here? You don't seem to have any intelligent comments at all on anything?

I'm not trying to offer analysis of them. You seem to think you are, but you are singularly failing to do so. All you are doing is repeating the points you've read on your favourite frothing at the the mouth gold and silver bull websites, websites that have obviously parted you from any semblance of common sense because all you ever blather on about is the one way course of gold and silver ($10,000, $20,000...!!!!).
You are simply a rude and failed investor venting himself on here, presumably because of your lack of anything meaningful or positive elsewhere in your life. Why not just try and act like an adult for a change and pack away your constantly repeated arguments and 'mental midget' insults. You are a tedious little individual and no mistake.

Bigsby   Thu, 7 Feb 2013, 1:43am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 76

underwaterman says

Still follow my code. Civil discourse can't happen with narcissistic personality disorders and apparently psychotic stalking little mental midgets such as yourself. I now see why Patrick had to develop the ignore button for creepy little bugs such as yourself and your 11 ignores.

You really are an unpleasant little man. You have no interest in civil discourse at all. You insult at any opportunity you get with or without provocation. You also appear to have an incredibly inflated sense of your own self-importance and intelligence. Both sadly misplaced.

Bigsby   Thu, 7 Feb 2013, 1:47am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 77

underwaterman says

Bigsby says

2 months behind what by the way?

Your like the little engine that couldn't. You are 2 months behind on attack my investment theme from the midget clown circus. Want to explanations go back and read my posts little bug. Ever plan on making a non-attack comment this century bug boy?

Now crawl back into your hole for 2 months until you can think of another way to attack me and I can continue this game of wack-a-mole.

I'm not 2 months behind anything. You've simply never answered the questions. You just continue with your constant attacks at Roberto's investments whilst completely glossing over/lying about your own. But hey, keep bullshitting. You are clearly practiced at it.

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