RealtyTrac, CoreLogic Confirm Housing Bear Thesis: 85-90% of REOHeld Off Market


By HousingBoom   Follow   Sun, 27 Jan 2013, 12:03pm PST   8,134 views   77 comments   Watch (0)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

RealtyTrac, CoreLogic Confirm Housing Bear Thesis: 85-90% of REO Being Held Off Market, Meaning “Tight” Inventories Are Bogus

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/07/realtytrac-corelogic-confirm-housing-bear-thesis-85-90-of-reo-being-held-off-market-meaning-tight-inventories-are-bogus.html#5y9tQYtW81UaISZe.99

#housing

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HousingBoom   befriend (1)   ignore (0)   Sun, 27 Jan 2013, 12:04pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 1

Again, the sheep will get slaughtered when the housing market collapses.

thomaswong.1986   befriend (0)   ignore (6)   Sun, 27 Jan 2013, 12:37pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 2

HousingBoom says

Again, the sheep will get slaughtered when the housing market collapses.

I guess even the powers to be, who ever they may be, understand home price appreciation only keep up with inflation and incomes over the long run ... (R. Shiller facts). Else they wouldnt have allowed further declines in prices.

LOL! how do you explain to millions of all those homeowners (outside of CA) that the higher property tax due to higher market values during the boom years was all BOGUS...

I bet many want their property tax payment back...

Raw   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Sun, 27 Jan 2013, 1:01pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 3

HousingBoom says

Again, the sheep will get slaughtered when the housing market collapses.

LOL, this was 6 months ago.
Today, there isn't even a shadow of the shadow inventory.
No one wants to sell their home in this ridiculously low price environment. Americans are too smart for that.

Raw   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Sun, 27 Jan 2013, 1:35pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike (2)     Comment 4

underwaterman says

Let me make a prediction: Soon you will have the permabulls in the thread here denying reality, ignoring it, or distorting this article and it's risks. They will outnumber the people actually reading the article by 3 to 1.

So far al I see is the perma bears. Anyone who listened to them a year ago are sorry as hell.

HousingBoom   befriend (1)   ignore (0)   Sun, 27 Jan 2013, 1:41pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 5

Raw says

Americans are too smart for that.

LOL

thomaswong.1986   befriend (0)   ignore (6)   Sun, 27 Jan 2013, 2:13pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 6

Raw says

So far al I see is the perma bears.

mid 90s prices plus inflation.. if it hasnt happen yet it will.

Miami, Az, LV and many have seen back to normal..all your seeing
in these metros is volatility and appreciation around rate of inflation. no biggie...
some others like SFBA have not yet correct back to long term trend.

Bigsby   befriend (0)   ignore (14)   Sun, 27 Jan 2013, 3:14pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 7

underwaterman says

Let me make a prediction: Soon you will have the permabulls in the thread here denying reality, ignoring it, or distorting this article and it's risks. They will outnumber the people actually reading the article by 3 to 1. There was another thread about shadow inventory I think by sface and most people simply said there was none.

No, they didn't. People were simply questioning your outlandish numbers.
And this forum doesn't have a single permabull. Everyone on here was bearish up until a certain time (or continue to be so). It just happens that some people have seen that things aren't as bad as you like to make them out to be and have either returned to investing in RE or have bought homes for themselves in recent years.

thomaswong.1986   befriend (0)   ignore (6)   Sun, 27 Jan 2013, 4:00pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 8

chanakya4773 says

perma bears lose money in boom times and perma bulls in bust. its only the rational guys who consistently outperform both.

Yes there is a demand out there and lots of supply even in San Francisco Bay Area.. South Bay.. there is 20-25% non-performance of former tech facilities.. the other side of Silicon Valley ignored by the media lay vacant/empty .. a waste land now for over decade.. these places were busy as hell back in the day.

you can add former airfields Moffet and lots of old 50s factories like Sunnyvale Westinghouse to the list.. plenty of old land to put new housing up....

frankly the owners of these facilities/land are getting shit ZERO IN RENTAL INCOME..i seen some turned into Churches of all things..Former HP buiding of Aques, Sunnyvale.

as such the debt burden by city/county/state will force them to expand them by rezoning all this land into residential homes to increase tax revenues. and put more inventory into the markets.

varmint   befriend (0)   ignore (1)   Mon, 28 Jan 2013, 5:55am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 9

According to Zillow there are 20 houses for sale in my town. Exactly zero of them are REO.

There are 17 houses that have been foreclosed, are vacant and not for sale and another 65 that are in foreclosure proceedings.

While I think shadow inventory issue is a bit overblown, it does appear that the banks are holding inventory to a certain extent. In the spring/summer of 2012 when we were looking for a house more than half of what we saw was REO.

Philistine   befriend (0)   ignore (1)   Mon, 28 Jan 2013, 8:17am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 10

varmint says

17 houses that have been foreclosed, are vacant and not for sale and another 65
that are in foreclosure proceedings

It's stunning how many foreclosures are in central LA right now. 90% of what's on the market. I'm sure they'll all get bought up by cash flippers and put back on the market for 20% more than comps.

Raw   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Mon, 28 Jan 2013, 8:28am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 11

Philistine says

varmint says

17 houses that have been foreclosed, are vacant and not for sale and another 65

that are in foreclosure proceedings

It's stunning how many foreclosures are in central LA right now. 90% of what's on the market. I'm sure they'll all get bought up by cash flippers and put back on the market for 20% more than comps.

Central LA has that many forecosures on the market? I'm surprised.
I can't imagine why anyone in their right minds would want to even live in such a dump. Half the people there are criminals and the other half are victims of the criminals.

varmint   befriend (0)   ignore (1)   Mon, 28 Jan 2013, 8:29am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 12

Philistine says

It's stunning how many foreclosures are in central LA right now. 90% of what's on the market. I'm sure they'll all get bought up by cash flippers and put back on the market for 20% more than comps.

Depends.

I would imagine stuff getting foreclosed this late in the game has LTV >> 100% so it won't sell at auction. Minimum bid is typically the amount owed on the house.

Once they go REO they'll be priced at market so there's probably not a lot there for flippers depending on how much prices have already risen in your area.

Mark D   befriend (0)   ignore (1)   Mon, 28 Jan 2013, 10:53am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 13

here's the location massive shadow inventory. have a look:

RentingForHalfTheCost   befriend (8)   ignore (6)   Mon, 28 Jan 2013, 10:59am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 14

Raw says

underwaterman says

Let me make a prediction: Soon you will have the permabulls in the thread here denying reality, ignoring it, or distorting this article and it's risks. They will outnumber the people actually reading the article by 3 to 1.

So far al I see is the perma bears. Anyone who listened to them a year ago are sorry as hell.

Sorry why? Because now they have all their wealth in the virtual home equity, that is about as reliable as getting a nice sleep next to the giant printing press of this country. Money anyone? Here is a truck for everyone. Now lets go spend it on housing cause that will make you rich. Go boys and girls, help this country out of the pit.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   befriend (27)   ignore (33)   Mon, 28 Jan 2013, 12:38pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (4)   Dislike     Comment 15

Of course, some of it can be accounted for by the changes in accounting rules that allow the banks to keep failed notes from being accounted as REO and therefore preserving the fiction that bank is not bankrupt and subject to dechartering.

But I wonder how much of the trouble can be ascribed to the logistical gaga of repatriating a failed from inside of an MBS instrument.

David9   befriend (4)   ignore (0)   Tue, 29 Jan 2013, 1:11am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 16

Raw says

So far al I see is the perma bears. Anyone who listened to them a year ago
are sorry as hell.

I'm not 'sorry as hell'. What? Let's see, I could have had:
(All are plural)

1.) Condos that look onto other people's property
2.) Condos that look onto stucco walls
3.) Condos that need $money$ plus mortgage to be liveable.
4.) Condos that that are investor flips
5.) Condos with high HOA fees

Basically, I could have bought the bank's sh*t, or given my equity to an investor.

Quigley   befriend (6)   ignore (1)   Tue, 29 Jan 2013, 1:22am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 17

Yes. Those have been the options here too. Buy property in bad location or tiny and overpriced. Or the investor flips which can sell for 10% more than normal.
All options suck for home buyers right now. The market is so bogus if you buy something now you should pay for it with $3 bills.

Quigley   befriend (6)   ignore (1)   Tue, 29 Jan 2013, 1:34am PST   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 18

Thanks Obama, it's because of you and your bankster puppeteers that I've lost all hope of owning my own home.
I guess I'm not poor enough or lazy enough to deserve a seat at the table.
F---!

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   befriend (27)   ignore (33)   Tue, 29 Jan 2013, 1:36am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 19

Quigley says

The market is so bogus if you buy something now you should pay for it with $3 bills.

hehehehe

Facebooksux   befriend (4)   ignore (0)   Tue, 29 Jan 2013, 1:42am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 20

FUCK YOU BERNANKE!!!1

varmint   befriend (0)   ignore (1)   Tue, 29 Jan 2013, 2:48am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 21

robertoaribas says

obviously, you don't know anything about foreclosures then. The bank doesn't usually set the minimum bid at the debt owed, or NOTHING would ever get bought at auction; they have have done that in 2006, but they learned. They estimate the value it will sell for. Right now, about 50% are purchased, 50% go back to the bank

Ever think that it's more advantageous for the bank to not sell at auction? Smaller pool of buyers (in CA you need 100% cash on the steps) who will be risk adverse due to no inspections etc.

Yes some are discounted from amount owed but from what I've followed, most are not. I'm sure this depends on the specific market and how much REO the bank is willing/able to take on.

What's true for you in AZ is not necessarily what's true for someone else in CA. As for your tone: get fucked.

varmint   befriend (0)   ignore (1)   Tue, 29 Jan 2013, 4:55am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 22

thank you, this data is more helpful than insults

Raw   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Tue, 29 Jan 2013, 8:18am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 23

Quigley says

Thanks Obama, it's because of you and your bankster puppeteers that I've lost all hope of owning my own home.

I guess I'm not poor enough or lazy enough to deserve a seat at the table.

F---!

Obama and Bernanke had a job to do....Get the housing market and the economy back on the path to recovery. They have achieved this with flying colors, and undoubtedly deserve praise, not criticism.
Many home buyers who did not see the bounce in housing coming have missed the boat, but that should not stop anyone from jumping onto the next boat which will come along.

Raw   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Tue, 29 Jan 2013, 8:20am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 24

David9 says

Raw says

So far al I see is the perma bears. Anyone who listened to them a year ago

are sorry as hell.

I'm not 'sorry as hell'. What? Let's see, I could have had:

(All are plural)

1.) Condos that look onto other people's property

2.) Condos that look onto stucco walls

3.) Condos that need $money$ plus mortgage to be liveable.

4.) Condos that that are investor flips

5.) Condos with high HOA fees

Basically, I could have bought the bank's sh*t, or given my equity to an investor.

No mention of $100,000 gain in equity you could have had? I find it hard to believe you would not want it.

David9   befriend (4)   ignore (0)   Tue, 29 Jan 2013, 8:35am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 25

Raw says

No mention of $100,000 gain in equity you could have had? I find it hard to
believe you would not want it.

Of course I want that. Why do you think I bitch and complain so much ?

In the low end open market, that much of an equity gain is not a reality.

Now, if I was a cash investor at the courthouse steps..

You betcha ;-)

iwog   befriend (49)   ignore (12)   Tue, 29 Jan 2013, 9:42am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 26

HousingBoom says

RealtyTrac, CoreLogic Confirm Housing Bear Thesis: 85-90% of REO Being Held Off Market, Meaning “Tight” Inventories Are Bogus

Wow........do any of these people actually shop for real property?

Confirms a bear market in housing? Seriously??

Go make an offer 5% lower than the market price one year ago today and see how hard the agent/owner laughs at you. Holy crap batman! I've seen denial before but this is getting ludicrous.

inflection point   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Tue, 29 Jan 2013, 11:58am PST   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 27

Raw,

The job Ben Bernanke and Obama (and Bush) had to do was rob honest citizens of their hard earned savings and their future. They are no better than Bernie Madoff. The only advantage they have over Bernie is they have the law on their side.

yup1   befriend (0)   ignore (2)   Tue, 29 Jan 2013, 12:00pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 28

iwog says

Wow........do any of these people actually shop for real property?


Confirms a bear market in housing? Seriously??


Go make an offer 5% lower than the market price one year ago today and see
how hard the agent/owner laughs at you. Holy crap batman! I've seen denial
before but this is getting ludicrous.

Did you actually read the article? Did you even read the headline? Massive REO is being held off the market, simple supply and demand means yes the price will be going up. IT IS ARTIFICIAL DUE TO THE SUPPLY BEING HELD OFF THE MARKET. I know both you and Roberto understand this.........

iwog   befriend (49)   ignore (12)   Tue, 29 Jan 2013, 12:26pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 29

yup1 says

Did you actually read the article? Did you even read the headline? Massive REO is being held off the market, simple supply and demand means yes the price will be going up. IT IS ARTIFICIAL DUE TO THE SUPPLY BEING HELD OFF THE MARKET. I know both you and Roberto understand this.........

Massive REO supply, even if it does exist, can be kept off the market for a fucking decade if the banks want to keep it off that long.

Bank CEO: "OMG!!!! Home prices are sharply higher in 2012!!! Lets hurry up and sell everything and drive prices back down again!!!!"

The premise of the article is bullshit if it's false and is also bullshit if it's true. THAT is the main point.

yup1   befriend (0)   ignore (2)   Tue, 29 Jan 2013, 12:31pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 30

iwog says