Yeah, silly me. Wages causes interest rates to go up and down is what your stating. Seems to me the FED is having some kind of causal effect thru their ZIRP policies. Yes, wage inflation accounts for housing interest rates going from 6.5% in 2008 to 3.5% today. Yeah, right.
In a sense, it does. You are the one who keeps saying that wages are flat or falling for the last decade. Interest rates and wages move together, so it's not surprising that interest rates are falling.
In my original statement, "I do not believe the creation of the Fed was a good thing. I definitely don't think going off the gold standard in 1971 was good." I did not advocate going back on the gold standard I just pointed out that I thought it was a bad idea to go off of it.
I still hold that giving a quasi-secret supra-governmental authority control over our currency is a bad idea.
Most of those guys and gals had previous funding from the FED, and aspire to be on the FED Board of Governors some day just like Bernanke the ex-and-future Princeton Professor. Interesting to note, one of them had the balls not to answer the question.
Congrats on your purchases. However, a 10% or so rental yield is not especially high. I'd think a couple years ago when everyone's crystal balls were cloudy, 20% rental yield should have been do-able. Is the current investments that you are making simply due to inertia and cash flow stream from the houses having to have a place to go?
I noticed your quite obsessed with your investment and have an excessive need to let everyone know about it with practically each and every post whether it has anything to do with the topic or not. You are overcompensating because your insecure. Buying in a bubble of 2012 and sinking all your networth into houses in one market with the level of systemic risk in the economy and competing against all the other investors driving the bubble in phoenix should leave you give your pause for concern.
Presumably not remotely similar to you constantly talking about precious metals and how you went all in in 2012 using all that money you made selling your 5 houses in 2012, houses you bought in 2003, 2005 and 2006. It's also amusing how you think his 2012 purchases in Phoenix are buying in a bubble. What exactly were you thinking in 03/05/06?
All I can say is that if there is any 'systemic collapse' that we are still in danger of, it's going to kept a secret.
Don't think it is going to play out in secret.
Here, take a look at a simulation by james rickards, he's the guy that designed the first financial warfare simulations for the pentagon. It is 8 minutes and gives you some sense of how currency wars can play out:
This whole scenario is absurd. There is nothing to prevent COMEX declare Force Major and refuse delivery if anyone tries to corner the market like Hunts Brothers did. Better yet, 2000tons can be delivered over many years, just like what the USFED is doing to Germany's 300tons of their "own" gold. Even more importantly, there's nothing the Chinese leader would do when getting stiffed, just like the Germans government officials are not doing jack when getting "gently" stiffed. Even more than Angela Merkle, Chinese leaders actually have their kids in the US attending colleges. What? Bomb their own kids? It's ridiculous.
The trade deficit itself will reverse shortly as the US becomes the top oil and gas producer in the world, and manufacturing comes back to the US due to automation.
For the comment about the COMEX James is explaining that if the chinese buy contracts on the COMEX and attempt to call them all in at once they will simply settle in cash because they have the ability to do so in the contract. Normally if a client has a futures contract and wants to take delivery the COMEX does this.
So in other words, it's a big Nothingburger. James Rickards is a book seller. If he is really as important to the Pentagon as he implies, the Pentagon wouldn't be allowing him to make all those noises.
Here's the bottom line:
1. If the Chinese really want to maximize the gold they can buy from the international market, they would be buying it quietly with minimal impact to price as possible. The idea of demanding delivery on 150,000 contracts (2000tons) all at once is more than absurd. And as I mentioned in my previous post, and Rickards admit, even if they did, it would be a Nothingburger as the rules of Comex is set up precisely to prevent such attempt at cornering the market. The Comex is a price discovery place for the industry, not a price manipulation place (although there are arguments for PTB manipulating it the other way; if you believe so, go pick up more gold for yourself, quietly)
2. The scenario that he presents goes off on a non-starter. The next assumption that the Chinese government would somehow resort to war of any sort for denied delivery is even more absurd. Frankly, even if the Chinese have its military watch all its gold, it can not guarantee some of it does not flow back to the US or some of the officials knowingly accept tungsten bars! That's how hopelessly corrupt the Chinese bureaucracy is. Ours are not much better, but given a choice, corrupt bureaucrats in either country would still prefer parking the rest of their lives and their personal wealth in the US than in China. We are not talking about US vs. Switzerland or vs.Cayman Island or even Canada here.
3. The Syrian response to Israeli bombing so far should give you a hint how those international hissy fits work. Big Nothingburger when one party is way too occupied with domestic issues. Just like the Syrian leader's top priority is ensuring he and his family would spend the rest of their lives abroad after their regime is toppled (therefore extremely unlikely to respond to Israeli attack), the Chinese leaders already have their family members in the US and other western countries as citizens of the newly adopted countries. What do you think they will do when their creeky regime is under international pressure? Big Nothingburger.
The coming "collapse" is not some kind of international war, but a financial collapse that will transfer even more of the damage to the creditors of the US government. There's nothing the creditors can do about it. That includes domestic and international bond holders, and cash holders, as well as holders of all sorts of promises by the governments of the world. A real war of any kind is however highly unlikely.
They are already doing this and also buying gold mines. The scenarios are for the escalation of the currency wars and possibilities.
"This" meaning they are trying to get gold without driving up price. The so-called scenario is the exact opposite: presenting 150,000 contracts for delivery all at once would only drive up price without getting them any gold.]
The Chinese are already engaging in currency wars and executing computer attacks already against US companies like google and the US govt.
"Currency war" is no more a war than a "junkyard war." It's just a term that the government uses to cover up for its irresponsible debasement of local currency. The Chinese government hasn't even engaged in deliberate debasement of its own Yen lately. If anything, the Chinese Yen is artificially trading at a level much higher than what a free float would land it: millions of Chinese probably would prefer converting their savings to the US dollar. Computer network penentrations are the sort of things all governments waste their time on. The Chinese government is quite divided internally regarding relationship to Google, due to one faction's financial/censorship interest in a domestic competitor in China.
History shows this is exactly how world wars get started by some small first attack that seems unimportant but escalates.
Also, there is Russia and China backing Syria not insignificant military powers.
History shows that there have been far more forecasts of world wars than actual world wars. You have to have two sides both think themselves can win before any major war can take place. In the current world, nobody is interested in engaging the US in a global war, aside from the infamous patsy "toilet" organization.
I suggest you read the book or read up on what the end result is of currency wars and start listening to the people paid to predict them for the military.
The military has dozens and dozens of war scenarios at any given time. That's what the military is paid to do, and how they get funding.
Those countries holding the gold at the end of musical chairs wins.
King Darius of Persia must be wondering how he lost his empire to Alexander. Heck, how did Croesus lose his?
Countries are also going to need all those commodities to survive and is why China is spending it's time buying commodity companies all over the world and stockpile them
There is no real shortage of commodities in the world. The Chinese have been buying much in the last few years simply because they do not have better investment ideas. IMHO, in the long run, they will lose money on those hoards.
while the US is wasting away printing fake dollars trying to pump up the stock and housing markets. When the US needs those rare earth materials and can't have them how do you think they will get them?
Mine them and buy them. Rare earth material is not rare. It's all over the world, just takes time and effort to mine. The Chinese accounted for much of the world's production only because their labor used to be cheap and they didn't give a rat's ass about polluting their environment mining the stuff.
Do you see countries in the middle east at peace like Egypt or Syria because the currency wars are making food prices in those countries too expensive so the population implodes into civil war?
"Currency War" has no real meaning. Competitive devaluation between neighbors took place numerous times: Britain in the early 1990's, Agentina and Brazil every decade.
Civil war in some parts of the world is a possibility. The far more severe ones might be those in Russia (when commodity price collapses) and in China (when their communist party collapses). If those giant countries break up into smaller pieces, hopefully peacefully, it will be good thing for the rest of the world.
You could have said this about Iraq. Look at the war we initiated on this "nothingburger" country with no nuclear weapons and how many years, lives, and money it costs to end up with just another corrupt govt there. The middle east is a hornets nest and is critical to US national interest of oil so it is anything but a "nothingburger" concern.
Nobody is talking about ground invading and occupying Syria. The so-called "scenario" talks about Russia and China coming to the aid of Iran and Syria in a massive stand-off. Well, guess what, they are not. Syria is bending over backwards to avoid a war.
As the US becomes the world's top oil and gas producer, the importance of middleast recedes into the background.
It's more than that in terms of its effects on populations. From what I've read it leads to higher food prices in other less competitive countries like egypt and india. People starving because of our policies seems more than a "junkyard war" to me.
The so-called "currency war," i.e. deliberate devaluation of domestic currency, causes food price to rise in one's OWN country! It's a war by the government on its OWN people. It's not an international war as the war mongers would like you to believe.
Probably one reason why the war will take place using currencies and other financial mechanisms in my opinion.
"Currency War" in the modern statist world has nothing to do with waging war on another country. It refers to the deliberate debasement of one's own currency. i.e. government waging war on its own people! They call competitive currency debasement "currency war" only as a way of putting lipstick on the pig so the regime's predatory action against its own people is dressed up in patriotism. Like the old saying goes, patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel.
Russia got caught sending in military people from one article I read to help train syria's military. It will be done covertly at first like this but doesn't mean it won't escalate or find other means to wage the war that can be just as bad for the population.
Russia is doing it for money; i.e. existing military contract. Russia is not keen on having a military conflict with the US. Nor are they capable of projecting power across Turkey, a member of NATO, or across Iraq, which has US military bases. These are the two countries interspacing Russia and Syria.
I think terrorist organizations are definitely interested
In case my previous words: patsy "toilet" organization, was too obstuse, here's another hint: that same patsy calling-itself-"toilet"-in-native-language organization also seems to pop up wherever "our" military wants to go, like Afghanistan, Yemen, and now West Africa. . . and wouldn't you know it, they are actually fighting on "our" side in Lybia and Syria! A "war on terror" is not going to become WWIII. It's a boondoggle that has been going on for over a decade, and will in all likelihood continue as a low-intensity war all over the world paving ways for western military deployment everywhere. The long-term strategy seems to be denial of access to Russia and China, forcing them to fight each other over resources on their own mutual long border.
Given that enormous amount of oil and gas resources just made available thanks to new drilling technology, a war between them over the oil wells in the Stans and Siberia is not going to happen any time soon. Each of them is far more likely to fall apart from within due to their own domestic reasons.
Not according to James Rickards. We export inflation to other less developed countries first. I tend to believe him watching the arab spring appear with the QEs.
Richards is either an idiot or a propagandist, probably a mix of both. The developing countries feel the effect of dollar inflation because their currencies are linked to the dollar. i.e. their governments debase their currencies automatically whenever our FED does. It is their own government waging war against their own citizens through currency debasement along with ours. Nothing magical about it.
There are many variables at play and why the run scenarios to find out what they are and plan for them. What is the interaction between currency wars and the international banking system? Derivatives? Etc?
That's all bullshit with a few fancy words thrown in that has nothing to do with the context.
That's one interpretation. Another is that they are growing more aggressive against the US and you see this with Putin and his statements and actions in the press. They don't seem particularly scared of us anymore with wacko's like him running the govt.
Nationalism sells as a political device in just about any country. Putin is facing domestic political problems. A drop in oil price will make his position even less tenable. Would he dare to challenge the US directly? Not a chance, and even he knows it, just like the Chinese.
Yeah that argument seems reasonable until one thinks of them building a dirty nuclear bomb or sabotaging a US nuclear facility here or even China and Russia accelerating their drone technology and giving it to whoever will buy it.
"Dirty bomb" is a mind trick giving wannabe terrorists a rope to hang themselves. Think about it, if a passerby can get radiation sickness from the material after it spreads, what do you think would happen to the builder of the device during assembly and transportation when the poor SOB has to be close to all the material for many hours? I suppose when things get really bad in Detroit, someone might want to wipe it off the map as a potential political liability. But that's long in the future if ever. Keep in mind, the clowns can't accomplish anything without agents helping them. In any case, I wouldn't buy any property near Detroit.
As for Russia and China, why would they want to sell any drone technology to anyone that can easily use it to bomb themselves? Both Russia and China have far more violent domestic muslim enclaves that demand independence. "Our" Al-CIA-da may well be funneling money to those organizations as standard destabilization procedures. Gosh knows, the Russian and Chinese regimes deserve it. Let's just hope the whole thing doesn't turn into another blow-back.
You haven't presented any facts to that, just opinions about a "currency war." That currency war concept died in the 1990s.
Just look at what was the Yuan, Ruble, or Euro before the economic crisis, and the rise of the Rupee since then.
There is no currency war. There was some saber rattling about the petro dollars, and reserve currency, but that faded with the lack of economic ability of countries like Russia, or China, or Europe for that matter.
Face it, we are in a global economc contraction which blows your theories to heck.
I think if terrorists can think outside the box and turn 2 airplanes into weapons and bring down two large skyscrapers in New York they can figure out how to build a dirty bomb or construct a home made drone with a bomb or find a way to blow up a nuclear plant.
That sure sounds like a conspiracy theory to me.
At the same time there is nothing to say that with the proper cooperation governments can't fix the global economy so that "terrorists" don't feel the need to attack.
And James Rickards is neither an idiot nor a propagandist. He is quite intelligent and I know this because I've been following him for over 2 years now.
This is a joke, right? I have read James Rickards articles for over a decade. The guy has been a metal bull for a long time, but the war nonsense is recent. Here's some clue for you: I bought bulk silver for the first time in the year 2000, at around $4 per ounce. First purchase was a 1000oz bar off someone disappointed by the Y2K Nothingburger.
I think if terrorists can think outside the box and turn 2 airplanes into weapons and bring down two large skyscrapers in New York they can figure out how to build a dirty bomb or construct a home made drone with a bomb or find a way to blow up a nuclear plant. You can over-analyze why they couldn't all your want but it doesn't affect the reality and risk of it happening.
Even "terrorists" have to operate within the laws of physics. The "terrorists" don't do original inventions. They follow the scenarios already laid out by the likes of Rand Corporation and Tom Clancy novels. Using airliners as flying missles was a plot element for nearly a decade before being carried out for real.
"Dirty Bomb" is an idea for the the really gullible. If you believe that, you might believe the "walking dirty bomb" where the "terrorist" swallows highly radioactive material and irradiates others on public transportation through his guts. LOL. That will work even better than selling overly sensitive explosive material to bomb makers . . . at killing wannabe terrorists. That will teach them a lesson: don't become a terrorist, the government doesn't like competition.