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John Williams of Shadowstats.com Interview: The Next Crash Will Be A Lot Worse!

By HousingBoom   Follow   Mon, 28 Jan 2013, 3:31pm   8,384 views   245 comments
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Anyone who thinks the U.S. is in recovery should stop listening to the mainstream media and listen to John Williams. He heads up Shadowstats.com, and is one of the few economists who crunches the numbers to give unvarnished true statistics. Adjusted for real inflation of about 7%, Williams says, "GDP has plunged, and we have been bottom bouncing" ever since the financial crisis started. Williams says, "The next crash will be a lot worse (than 2008) because it will push us into the early stages of hyperinflation." He predicts this will happen "by the end of 2014" at the latest....

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1. APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich Follow Befriend (28) 170 threads 4,173 comments Premium

   1   5:03pm Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike   Protected   He doesn't mention Jack shit about planting yams. Who can take this clown seriously?

2. Raw Follow Befriend 10 threads 694 comments

   2   3:48pm Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   In the very first sentence he says he has been expecting hyper inflation for 8 years. Can't take anyone seriouslywho has been dead wrong for 8 years. (especially an economist) Secondly, hyper inflation would be a reason to buy real estate, as that would be the best hedge against hyper inflation. This is fodder for the perma bears, and nothing more.

3. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,778 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

   3   10:31am Tue 29 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   underwaterman says His thesis is entirely correct, that another deeper crises is looming. Yes... another crash is coming another war is coming too another flood is coming another epidemic is coming another earthquake is coming And, in the long run, you are dead man. Invest accordingly!

4. yup1 Follow Befriend 10 threads 379 comments

   4   3:19pm Thu 31 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   HousingBoom says This proves my point. Crack for brains think we can print trillions out of thin air for the next 50 years. lol. I'm done. you know what they say, never argue with an idiot, they'll bring you down to their level then beat you with experience. You have basically lost faith in the system. Until a lot more people lose faith the system stays in place. If the system collapses, we all lose. If a bunch of people lose faith but the system does not collapse, those that lose faith LOSE. If the system stays intact Roberto and Iwog will most likely do very well. If the system fails we all LOSE. Based on that, it is probably a good bet that the system will not be allowed to fail.

5. yup1 Follow Befriend 10 threads 379 comments

   5   5:00pm Thu 31 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Raw says Recent home purchases are not leveraged with zero downs. So 3% FHA loans do not happen?

6. yup1 Follow Befriend 10 threads 379 comments

   6   5:03pm Thu 31 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Raw says Home prices are not overpriced anymore. So says those that own, those that rent believe the opposite, some of those that own (me) still believe the opposite. Home prices are being supported by low interest rates. What happens if rates rise?

7. yup1 Follow Befriend 10 threads 379 comments

   7   5:07pm Thu 31 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Raw says Lots of reasons why 2008 can't be repeated anytime soon: You saying it can't be repeated shows your ignorance. Lehman, Bear, Wachovia, WAMU, Countrywide, Merril, have been absorbed by the remaining big 5 banks. They are now much bigger than before the last crisis when Lehman ALONE destroyed the credit markets. You keep smoking that it can't happen again crack pipe.

8. HousingBoom Follow Befriend (1) 48 threads 172 comments

   8   3:57pm Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   If he shouldn't be taken seriously, then no hyperinflation and home prices collapses.

9. gsr Follow Befriend 135 comments male Issaquah, WA

   9   4:29pm Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Raw says Secondly, hyper inflation would be a reason to buy real estate, as that would be the best hedge against hyper inflation. Actually, this is not necessarily true. The interest rates will have to go higher if there is a hyperinflation. The bond prices will collapse as well.

10. HousingBoom Follow Befriend (1) 48 threads 172 comments

    10   4:32pm Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Raw says How would you fix the economy? What would you do that is different from what the government is already doing? Keep in mind economic recovery is well under way. Should we even rock the boat? The last thing I would do is print trillions out of thin air and destroy the value of the US dollar. They already dug themselves in a big hole. The only thing we can do is stop printing and let the free market determine interest rates and go from there. The Fed's intervention is what causes these bubbles. The economy is being fully supported by the printing press. It is equivalent to saying that an unemployed person is doing well and very wealthy because he is borrowing $50,000 a week to pay for his extravagant life style. If you think this person is doing well then I think that's a problem.

11. Mark D Follow Befriend 63 threads 479 comments Simi Valley, CA

    11   8:07pm Mon 28 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   i'm concerned for this guy. too paranoid for his age.

12. Kevin Follow Befriend 40 threads 2,652 comments

    12   11:01pm Wed 30 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   HousingBoom says Raw says Why must you always have extremes? Prices coould just keep going up and then stabilize for a few years. That would be the best case scenario for the economy, jobs, deficits, growth etc etc. For the sake of this wonderful country lets hope that is exactly what happens. That is wishful thinking in my opinion. I don't want to "pretend" that everything will be okay. I know for a fact that the financial system is on the precipice. I am trying to wake up the sheep A total collapse like this results in most people dead. There's no "waking up". The good news is that its complete and utter bullshit. You can find people talking like this throughout history. Nobody ever accurately predicts economic collapse. Anyone betting on it happening is a fool, or a bullshitter. No point arguing with crazy people.

13. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,616 comments

    13   9:36am Thu 31 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   underwaterman says First of all you have to differentiate between a true 100% gold standard, bimetallic standard (based either on gold or silver), a quasi-gold standard, and then a pure fiat standard to even talk about the specific time periods and the root causes. No I don't. You said this: underwaterman says Each financial crises gets bigger and worse with monetary manipulation after going off the gold standard in 1971 by nixon. And the chart I posted shows definitively that you are full of crap. All the other BS you spouted is completely irrelevant. Try to stay on topic. Did booms/busts get worse under fiat money.

14. HousingBoom Follow Befriend (1) 48 threads 172 comments

    14   10:36am Thu 31 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   HousingBoom says Then why are you living here? NO country, at any point in history, has been a nice place to live during a financial collapse. Please gtfo if you think its all going down. You're going back on my ignore list. good bye =)

15. yup1 Follow Befriend 10 threads 379 comments

    15   11:28am Thu 31 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Mean Reversion Bitches.......

16. yup1 Follow Befriend 10 threads 379 comments

    16   11:35am Thu 31 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   HousingBoom says Thanks. That shows that prices only moved sideways and needs to fall further. lol Yeah that is why I posted it. Prices need to drop 50% MORE to revert to Mean.

17. donjumpsuit Follow Befriend 9 threads 405 comments

    17   11:41am Thu 31 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   It's a crude photoshop, but after close examination over the course of 2 years, this is how I see it playing out. Bubble fever will hit with unprecedented force. As hedge funds, banks and investors own more and more property, they will be vested in seeing it increase in value, and will influence markets to make this happen. This is called manipulation, the opposite of open or a free market. When the powers that be control the money that is used to buy houses (through lending) they can make this manipulation. Individual buyers really don't have $700k in cash to purchase property, it takes a lender to make that happen. So as long as they are willing to facilitate that purchase, homes will continue to increase. As more and more people rise above the waterline, they will continue to cash out and fuel the bubble 2.0. As far as the steep and tragic decline. I see that happening in 4-6 years. Unlike the subprime fiasco. I see something outside of housing leading to it's collapse. Some huge default, revaluation of currency or ubsurd collapse of the entire debt, credit, and lending structure due to the excessive debts and printing of money that the government is undertaking. When it does crash, so ends the real estate equity bubble as we know it. No longer will homes be priced to this degree again. There will be little or no equity ever built up, and perhaps they will be bought outright in 4 or 5 years like automobiles are today. There will be a move to increased disposibility in housing as people who are burned and burned again reexamine the system and reevaluate it's role in thier lives, budget, and finances.

18. yup1 Follow Befriend 10 threads 379 comments

    18   12:33pm Thu 31 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   robertoaribas says Roberto: Ready, Aim, Fire. great shot, reload and prepare again. Do you make regular attempts to suck your own dick?

19. CDon Follow Befriend (1) 209 comments

    19   12:44pm Thu 31 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   HousingBoom says Who says I have to have a specific date? Because if you dont, you will continuously re-evaluate, over and over again. As you just noted you thought you had a hard and fast date "2-4 years since there will be fireworks by then", but as you just admitted to yourself, if no fireworks, by 2014-2016, you will "re-evaluate" likely setting another target of "2-4 years". Now we are up to 2020. And if by 2020, you still havent seen the fireworks - will you jump in then - or will you again set a benchmark juuuust out of your reach. When you do this, you nickel and dime yourself to death - doing this over and over til suddenly you wake up, and its been 20 years later, and you STILL are waiting. This is no way to live IMO. Right now, in 2013, you can look at 20 years and say "Oh, no - thats too long - I wont do that - I wont be waiting that long". Still, if you dont set a hard and fast date, down that slippery slope many go.

20. HousingBoom Follow Befriend (1) 48 threads 172 comments

    20   12:50pm Thu 31 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   CDon says This is no way to live IMO. I knew a guy who told me in 2006 that I should buy a house and not to live in fear. He ended up foreclosing, destroyed his credit and lost his savings. lol. "This is no way to live IMO." Working hard for your money only to lose everything because you're too stupid to look a few years ahead.