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John Williams of Shadowstats.com Interview: The Next Crash Will Be A Lot Worse!


By HousingBoom   Follow   Mon, 28 Jan 2013, 7:31am PST   12,753 views   200 comments
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Anyone who thinks the U.S. is in recovery should stop listening to the mainstream media and listen to John Williams. He heads up Shadowstats.com, and is one of the few economists who crunches the numbers to give unvarnished true statistics. Adjusted for real inflation of about 7%, Williams says, "GDP has plunged, and we have been bottom bouncing" ever since the financial crisis started. Williams says, "The next crash will be a lot worse (than 2008) because it will push us into the early stages of hyperinflation." He predicts this will happen "by the end of 2014" at the latest....

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   Mon, 28 Jan 2013, 9:03am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike     Comment 1

He doesn't mention Jack shit about planting yams. Who can take this clown seriously?

Raw   Mon, 28 Jan 2013, 7:48am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 2

In the very first sentence he says he has been expecting hyper inflation for 8 years. Can't take anyone seriouslywho has been dead wrong for 8 years. (especially an economist)
Secondly, hyper inflation would be a reason to buy real estate, as that would be the best hedge against hyper inflation.
This is fodder for the perma bears, and nothing more.

yup1   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 7:19am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 3

HousingBoom says

This proves my point. Crack for brains think we can print trillions out of
thin air for the next 50 years. lol. I'm done. you know what they say, never
argue with an idiot, they'll bring you down to their level then beat you with
experience.

You have basically lost faith in the system. Until a lot more people lose faith the system stays in place. If the system collapses, we all lose. If a bunch of people lose faith but the system does not collapse, those that lose faith LOSE. If the system stays intact Roberto and Iwog will most likely do very well. If the system fails we all LOSE. Based on that, it is probably a good bet that the system will not be allowed to fail.

yup1   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 9:00am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 4

Raw says

Recent home purchases are not leveraged with zero downs.

So 3% FHA loans do not happen?

yup1   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 9:03am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 5

Raw says

Home prices are not overpriced anymore.

So says those that own, those that rent believe the opposite, some of those that own (me) still believe the opposite. Home prices are being supported by low interest rates. What happens if rates rise?

yup1   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 9:07am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 6

Raw says

Lots of reasons why 2008 can't be repeated anytime soon:

You saying it can't be repeated shows your ignorance. Lehman, Bear, Wachovia, WAMU, Countrywide, Merril, have been absorbed by the remaining big 5 banks. They are now much bigger than before the last crisis when Lehman ALONE destroyed the credit markets. You keep smoking that it can't happen again crack pipe.

HousingBoom   Mon, 28 Jan 2013, 7:57am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 7

If he shouldn't be taken seriously, then no hyperinflation and home prices collapses.

gsr   Mon, 28 Jan 2013, 8:29am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 8

Raw says

Secondly, hyper inflation would be a reason to buy real estate, as that would be the best hedge against hyper inflation.

Actually, this is not necessarily true. The interest rates will have to go higher if there is a hyperinflation. The bond prices will collapse as well.

HousingBoom   Mon, 28 Jan 2013, 8:32am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 9

Raw says

How would you fix the economy? What would you do that is different from what the government is already doing?

Keep in mind economic recovery is well under way. Should we even rock the boat?

The last thing I would do is print trillions out of thin air and destroy the value of the US dollar. They already dug themselves in a big hole. The only thing we can do is stop printing and let the free market determine interest rates and go from there. The Fed's intervention is what causes these bubbles.

The economy is being fully supported by the printing press. It is equivalent to saying that an unemployed person is doing well and very wealthy because he is borrowing $50,000 a week to pay for his extravagant life style. If you think this person is doing well then I think that's a problem.

Mark D   Mon, 28 Jan 2013, 12:07pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 10

i'm concerned for this guy. too paranoid for his age.

Kevin   Wed, 30 Jan 2013, 3:01pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 11

HousingBoom says

Raw says

Why must you always have extremes?

Prices coould just keep going up and then stabilize for a few years. That would be the best case scenario for the economy, jobs, deficits, growth etc etc. For the sake of this wonderful country lets hope that is exactly what happens.

That is wishful thinking in my opinion. I don't want to "pretend" that everything will be okay. I know for a fact that the financial system is on the precipice. I am trying to wake up the sheep

A total collapse like this results in most people dead. There's no "waking up".

The good news is that its complete and utter bullshit. You can find people talking like this throughout history.

Nobody ever accurately predicts economic collapse. Anyone betting on it happening is a fool, or a bullshitter.

No point arguing with crazy people.

tatupu70   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 1:36am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 12

underwaterman says

First of all you have to differentiate between a true 100% gold standard,
bimetallic standard (based either on gold or silver), a quasi-gold standard,
and
then a pure fiat standard to even talk about the specific time periods
and the root causes.

No I don't. You said this:

underwaterman says

Each financial crises gets bigger and worse with monetary manipulation after
going off the gold standard in 1971 by nixon.

And the chart I posted shows definitively that you are full of crap. All the other BS you spouted is completely irrelevant. Try to stay on topic. Did booms/busts get worse under fiat money.

HousingBoom   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 2:36am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 13

HousingBoom says

Then why are you living here?

NO country, at any point in history, has been a nice place to live during a financial collapse.

Please gtfo if you think its all going down.

You're going back on my ignore list. good bye =)

yup1   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 3:28am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 14

Mean Reversion Bitches.......

yup1   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 3:35am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 15

HousingBoom says

Thanks. That shows that prices only moved sideways and needs to fall further.
lol

Yeah that is why I posted it. Prices need to drop 50% MORE to revert to Mean.

yup1   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 4:33am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 16

robertoaribas says

Roberto: Ready, Aim, Fire. great shot, reload and prepare again.

Do you make regular attempts to suck your own dick?

CDon   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 4:44am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 17

HousingBoom says

Who says I have to have a specific date?

Because if you dont, you will continuously re-evaluate, over and over again. As you just noted you thought you had a hard and fast date "2-4 years since there will be fireworks by then", but as you just admitted to yourself, if no fireworks, by 2014-2016, you will "re-evaluate" likely setting another target of "2-4 years". Now we are up to 2020. And if by 2020, you still havent seen the fireworks - will you jump in then - or will you again set a benchmark juuuust out of your reach.

When you do this, you nickel and dime yourself to death - doing this over and over til suddenly you wake up, and its been 20 years later, and you STILL are waiting. This is no way to live IMO.

Right now, in 2013, you can look at 20 years and say "Oh, no - thats too long - I wont do that - I wont be waiting that long". Still, if you dont set a hard and fast date, down that slippery slope many go.

HousingBoom   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 4:50am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 18

CDon says

This is no way to live IMO.

I knew a guy who told me in 2006 that I should buy a house and not to live in fear. He ended up foreclosing, destroyed his credit and lost his savings. lol. "This is no way to live IMO."

Working hard for your money only to lose everything because you're too stupid to look a few years ahead.

HousingBoom   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 5:20am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 19

CDon says

What did I do to upset you? I tried to be as dispassionate as I could when I wrote that. Still, given that you dont seem ever willing to set a hard and fast date, is it not, in fact a given that if the fireworks do not come, you will in fact, be waiting for a lifetime?

Like I said, I believe that we are on the verge of a massive economic downturn. After this downturn, I think it would be an ideal to buy. I do believe prices will fall 20-35% during this time. If you want an exact date, it will be wrong of course. This is the reason I am not giving a hard date. It's not because I am "incapable". If you think anyone can give a "hard date" then I think you're the one who is incompetent. My time frame is 2-4 years. We should see a severe recession within this time and the latest GDP numbers is proof

ElenaMo313   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 5:21am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 20

HousingBoom says

CDon says

Do you understand the antecedent of that statement (i.e. printing trillions) is likely to continue so long as the fed exists? Are you willing to spend, potentially your full lifetime, "waiting out" the fed?

IMO, the Fed won't be able to print like this and keep rates down for very long. It will eventually destroy the currency. If rates go up to over 5%, then that itself will crush housing and the economy.

I wish more people realized this.

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