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John Williams of Shadowstats.com Interview: The Next Crash Will Be A Lot Worse!


By HousingBoom   Follow   Mon, 28 Jan 2013, 7:31am PST   13,185 views   200 comments   Watch (2)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)  


Anyone who thinks the U.S. is in recovery should stop listening to the mainstream media and listen to John Williams. He heads up Shadowstats.com, and is one of the few economists who crunches the numbers to give unvarnished true statistics. Adjusted for real inflation of about 7%, Williams says, "GDP has plunged, and we have been bottom bouncing" ever since the financial crisis started. Williams says, "The next crash will be a lot worse (than 2008) because it will push us into the early stages of hyperinflation." He predicts this will happen "by the end of 2014" at the latest....

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bgamall4   befriend   ignore   Fri, 1 Feb 2013, 10:09am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 161

underwaterman says

Gold is a store of value as well as money.

Except for it not being liquid, you are correct. However, in a Business Insider interview he lumped gold in with other commodities that could crash.

tatupu70   befriend   ignore   Fri, 1 Feb 2013, 10:13am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 162

underwaterman says

Yeah, silly me. Wages causes interest rates to go up and down is what your stating. Seems to me the FED is having some kind of causal effect thru their ZIRP policies. Yes, wage inflation accounts for housing interest rates going from 6.5% in 2008 to 3.5% today. Yeah, right.

In a sense, it does. You are the one who keeps saying that wages are flat or falling for the last decade. Interest rates and wages move together, so it's not surprising that interest rates are falling.

bgamall4   befriend   ignore   Fri, 1 Feb 2013, 10:53am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 163

underwaterman says

Pretty liquid to me. A simple phone call can liquidate it in storage for cash.

That is not always the case. Don't count on it in times of turmoil.

bgamall4   befriend   ignore   Fri, 1 Feb 2013, 10:53am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 164

underwaterman says

Now, as for that house investment to be liquidated, not so easy.

Housing is the most illiquid. You are right.

David Losh   befriend   ignore   Fri, 1 Feb 2013, 11:05am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 165

underwaterman says

personal attacks via my investment,

What investment?

You have no information here about an investment strategy.

Gold isn't an investment strategy.

Are you buying, and selling by market timing, because that is the only way to make gold work for you.

It's like taking your jewelry in, and out of pawn.

You haven't presented a strategy, and yet you are here killing another Real Estate thread with your Glenn Beck gold stories.

Then you throw in some insults, and psycho babble, and off you go again.

I've outlined some of my investments, but you have only told tales about losses.

bgamall4   befriend   ignore   Fri, 1 Feb 2013, 2:30pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 166

underwaterman says

We are not going to go against China and Russia and beat them into submission

and force them to buy our treasury bonds.

I think you are wrong about that. I think a desperate US would threaten and maybe already has implied a threat.

bgamall4   befriend   ignore   Fri, 1 Feb 2013, 2:31pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 167

underwaterman says

In my case it is. Places like goldmoney turn it into cash with a mouse click regardless of turmoil or non-turmoil.

Who says you will have internet in a crisis?

tatupu70   befriend   ignore   Fri, 1 Feb 2013, 10:15pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 168

underwaterman says

There not causal oh dumb one.

Of course not, oh reading comprehension deficient one. I never claimed they were.

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Fri, 1 Feb 2013, 11:29pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 169

underwaterman says

your an expert whose to clue me in on economics

underwaterman says

Boy, I hope I used the words "you're and your" correctly here professor because we all know how important that is now.

Unfortunately...

The Professor   befriend   ignore   Sat, 2 Feb 2013, 1:24am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 170

robertoaribas says

The Professor says

I do not believe the creation of the Fed was a good thing. I definitely don't think going off the gold standard in 1971 was good.

you and zero economists agree...

Faulty research? Or did you just make this up?

The Professor   befriend   ignore   Sat, 2 Feb 2013, 3:22am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 171

robertoaribas says

The Professor says

robertoaribas says

The Professor says

I do not believe the creation of the Fed was a good thing. I definitely don't think going off the gold standard in 1971 was good.

you and zero economists agree...

Faulty research? Or did you just make this up?

http://blogs.wsj.com/ideas-market/2012/01/23/survey-no-support-for-gold-standard-among-top-economists/

Nope. It is literally 0%!

Good! You're making progress! You have gone from zero to literally zero!

http://mises.org/daily/5379/The-Gold-Standard-Myths-and-Lies

In my original statement, "I do not believe the creation of the Fed was a good thing. I definitely don't think going off the gold standard in 1971 was good." I did not advocate going back on the gold standard I just pointed out that I thought it was a bad idea to go off of it.

I still hold that giving a quasi-secret supra-governmental authority control over our currency is a bad idea.

Do you think the fed is doing a good job?

David Losh   befriend   ignore   Sat, 2 Feb 2013, 4:06am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 172

underwaterman says

I think I'll keep my info private thank you.

underwaterman says

Here come the clowns into the thread derailing it making their usual attacks on the person, never the argument.

underwaterman says

I would suggest the one below. It gives a good overview of how the fed was formed secretely in 1910 by rich bankers

So, now you admit you have no strategy, just the same old, tired conspiracy of the Fed with the Gold Standard, but you can't get the Glenn Beck connection.

You should get a white board and put all the conspiracy theories up there to prove your point, it's what Glenn Beck does.

Now, you have nothing here that indicates you have any working knowledge about politics, or the economy, so there is nothing there to address.

You're making random comments about wages, or unemployment, maybe the federal deficit, that's always a good one, but nothing that ties it to the Gold Standard.

We have been over this before, repeatedly, on other threads you have high jacked.

So, this is another Real Estate thread; for you Real Estate is bad, gold is good. OK, we got that, and the personal attacks that you make against everybody, but you ultimately have nothing to say.

Reality   befriend   ignore   Sat, 2 Feb 2013, 4:55am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 173

robertoaribas says

http://blogs.wsj.com/ideas-market/2012/01/23/survey-no-support-for-gold-standard-among-top-economists/

Nope. It is literally 0%!

Most of those guys and gals had previous funding from the FED, and aspire to be on the FED Board of Governors some day just like Bernanke the ex-and-future Princeton Professor. Interesting to note, one of them had the balls not to answer the question.

Congrats on your purchases. However, a 10% or so rental yield is not especially high. I'd think a couple years ago when everyone's crystal balls were cloudy, 20% rental yield should have been do-able. Is the current investments that you are making simply due to inertia and cash flow stream from the houses having to have a place to go?

David Losh   befriend   ignore   Sat, 2 Feb 2013, 8:17am PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 174

underwaterman says

You know you just keep repeating things right?

That is exactly what you do.

You don't have any discussions, input, or information, it's just the same stalking, and insults.

I don't see why Roberto wastes his time responding to you, because you never have a come back, response, or clarity of thought.

Ironman   befriend   ignore   Sat, 2 Feb 2013, 1:25pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (2)     Comment 175

robertoaribas says

I will post that graph everywhere you ever decide to give investment advice.

What happened, did you just learn Photoshop, so now you want to show everyone how superior you are in playing with graphs???

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Sat, 2 Feb 2013, 7:56pm PST   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 176

underwaterman says

I noticed your quite obsessed with your investment and have an excessive need to let everyone know about it with practically each and every post whether it has anything to do with the topic or not. You are overcompensating because your insecure. Buying in a bubble of 2012 and sinking all your networth into houses in one market with the level of systemic risk in the economy and competing against all the other investors driving the bubble in phoenix should leave you give your pause for concern.

Presumably not remotely similar to you constantly talking about precious metals and how you went all in in 2012 using all that money you made selling your 5 houses in 2012, houses you bought in 2003, 2005 and 2006. It's also amusing how you think his 2012 purchases in Phoenix are buying in a bubble. What exactly were you thinking in 03/05/06?

David Losh   befriend   ignore   Sun, 3 Feb 2013, 3:04am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 177

underwaterman says

gold numeraire (which is real money)

Gold is a commodity. There is no gold money on the market today.'

That is what I mean by you repeating conspiracy theories.

We don't have hyper inflation which is just a fact of life.

Our government has printed tons of money, but there is no hyper inflation.

Hyper inflation isn't coming, deflation is.

This is a Real estate thread that you chose to high jack. It's boring, and without merit.

You have no point so there is nothing to address.

David9   befriend   ignore   Sun, 3 Feb 2013, 7:03am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 178

David Losh says

It's boring, and without merit.

Yeah, 12 minutes of 33 is all I can take on a Sunday, started watching a couple times before too.

All I can say is that if there is any 'systemic collapse' that we are still in danger of, it's going to kept a secret.

6 years is a long time to deal with anything.

Reality   befriend   ignore   Sun, 3 Feb 2013, 9:47am PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 179

underwaterman says

David9 says

All I can say is that if there is any 'systemic collapse' that we are still in danger of, it's going to kept a secret.

Don't think it is going to play out in secret.

Here, take a look at a simulation by james rickards, he's the guy that designed the first financial warfare simulations for the pentagon. It is 8 minutes and gives you some sense of how currency wars can play out:

This whole scenario is absurd. There is nothing to prevent COMEX declare Force Major and refuse delivery if anyone tries to corner the market like Hunts Brothers did. Better yet, 2000tons can be delivered over many years, just like what the USFED is doing to Germany's 300tons of their "own" gold. Even more importantly, there's nothing the Chinese leader would do when getting stiffed, just like the Germans government officials are not doing jack when getting "gently" stiffed. Even more than Angela Merkle, Chinese leaders actually have their kids in the US attending colleges. What? Bomb their own kids? It's ridiculous.

The trade deficit itself will reverse shortly as the US becomes the top oil and gas producer in the world, and manufacturing comes back to the US due to automation.

JodyChunder   befriend   ignore   Sun, 3 Feb 2013, 12:07pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 180

David Losh says

Gold is a commodity.

God is an even better one.

David Losh   befriend   ignore   Sun, 3 Feb 2013, 1:08pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 181

underwaterman says

hyperinflation is coming (read the article of the post your in dummy)

You should read the post. Hyperinflation had a chance, but it never materialized.

That is the problem. Hyperinflation isn't coming, but deflation is.

The global economy is contracting, we are past peak energy, and there is a real need for resource distribution.

The Deriviatives market stands a $1 Quadrillion, and that is another meaningless number.

You have nothing here.

The video itself has something to offer in terms of discussion, but you have only conspiracy theory hysteria to quote.

Move along back to your silver thread fantasies, and leave Real Estate alone, it obviously eludes you.

David Losh   befriend   ignore   Sun, 3 Feb 2013, 1:11pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 182

Reality says

The trade deficit itself will reverse shortly as the US becomes the top oil and gas producer in the world, and manufacturing comes back to the US due to automation.

These are valid points. What I think most conspiracy theory hysteria misses is that we are a global economy, with more transparency than there has been ever before.

The world is changing.

Reality   befriend   ignore   Sun, 3 Feb 2013, 2:32pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 183

underwaterman says

For the comment about the COMEX James is explaining that if the chinese buy contracts on the COMEX and attempt to call them all in at once they will simply settle in cash because they have the ability to do so in the contract. Normally if a client has a futures contract and wants to take delivery the COMEX does this.

So in other words, it's a big Nothingburger. James Rickards is a book seller. If he is really as important to the Pentagon as he implies, the Pentagon wouldn't be allowing him to make all those noises.

Here's the bottom line:

1. If the Chinese really want to maximize the gold they can buy from the international market, they would be buying it quietly with minimal impact to price as possible. The idea of demanding delivery on 150,000 contracts (2000tons) all at once is more than absurd. And as I mentioned in my previous post, and Rickards admit, even if they did, it would be a Nothingburger as the rules of Comex is set up precisely to prevent such attempt at cornering the market. The Comex is a price discovery place for the industry, not a price manipulation place (although there are arguments for PTB manipulating it the other way; if you believe so, go pick up more gold for yourself, quietly)

2. The scenario that he presents goes off on a non-starter. The next assumption that the Chinese government would somehow resort to war of any sort for denied delivery is even more absurd. Frankly, even if the Chinese have its military watch all its gold, it can not guarantee some of it does not flow back to the US or some of the officials knowingly accept tungsten bars! That's how hopelessly corrupt the Chinese bureaucracy is. Ours are not much better, but given a choice, corrupt bureaucrats in either country would still prefer parking the rest of their lives and their personal wealth in the US than in China. We are not talking about US vs. Switzerland or vs.Cayman Island or even Canada here.

3. The Syrian response to Israeli bombing so far should give you a hint how those international hissy fits work. Big Nothingburger when one party is way too occupied with domestic issues. Just like the Syrian leader's top priority is ensuring he and his family would spend the rest of their lives abroad after their regime is toppled (therefore extremely unlikely to respond to Israeli attack), the Chinese leaders already have their family members in the US and other western countries as citizens of the newly adopted countries. What do you think they will do when their creeky regime is under international pressure? Big Nothingburger.

The coming "collapse" is not some kind of international war, but a financial collapse that will transfer even more of the damage to the creditors of the US government. There's nothing the creditors can do about it. That includes domestic and international bond holders, and cash holders, as well as holders of all sorts of promises by the governments of the world. A real war of any kind is however highly unlikely.

Reality   befriend   ignore   Sun, 3 Feb 2013, 3:16pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 184

underwaterman says

They are already doing this and also buying gold mines. The scenarios are for the escalation of the currency wars and possibilities.

"This" meaning they are trying to get gold without driving up price. The so-called scenario is the exact opposite: presenting 150,000 contracts for delivery all at once would only drive up price without getting them any gold.]

underwaterman says

n fact, it seems to be following the beginning of the scenario with Isreal bombing Syria another middle eastern country similar to Iran.

And the Syrian response has been? The Syrian president doesn't even dare to call Israeli action as an act of war, for crying out loud. There is no WWIII if one side has no intention of fighting.

underwaterman says

The Chinese are already engaging in currency wars and executing computer attacks already against US companies like google and the US govt.

"Currency war" is no more a war than a "junkyard war." It's just a term that the government uses to cover up for its irresponsible debasement of local currency. The Chinese government hasn't even engaged in deliberate debasement of its own Yen lately. If anything, the Chinese Yen is artificially trading at a level much higher than what a free float would land it: millions of Chinese probably would prefer converting their savings to the US dollar. Computer network penentrations are the sort of things all governments waste their time on. The Chinese government is quite divided internally regarding relationship to Google, due to one faction's financial/censorship interest in a domestic competitor in China.

underwaterman says

History shows this is exactly how world wars get started by some small first attack that seems unimportant but escalates.

Also, there is Russia and China backing Syria not insignificant military powers.

History shows that there have been far more forecasts of world wars than actual world wars. You have to have two sides both think themselves can win before any major war can take place. In the current world, nobody is interested in engaging the US in a global war, aside from the infamous patsy "toilet" organization.

Reality   befriend   ignore   Sun, 3 Feb 2013, 3:27pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 185

underwaterman says

I suggest you read the book or read up on what the end result is of currency wars and start listening to the people paid to predict them for the military.

The military has dozens and dozens of war scenarios at any given time. That's what the military is paid to do, and how they get funding.

Those countries holding the gold at the end of musical chairs wins.

King Darius of Persia must be wondering how he lost his empire to Alexander. Heck, how did Croesus lose his?

Countries are also going to need all those commodities to survive and is why China is spending it's time buying commodity companies all over the world and stockpile them

There is no real shortage of commodities in the world. The Chinese have been buying much in the last few years simply because they do not have better investment ideas. IMHO, in the long run, they will lose money on those hoards.

while the US is wasting away printing fake dollars trying to pump up the stock and housing markets. When the US needs those rare earth materials and can't have them how do you think they will get them?

Mine them and buy them. Rare earth material is not rare. It's all over the world, just takes time and effort to mine. The Chinese accounted for much of the world's production only because their labor used to be cheap and they didn't give a rat's ass about polluting their environment mining the stuff.

Do you see countries in the middle east at peace like Egypt or Syria because the currency wars are making food prices in those countries too expensive so the population implodes into civil war?

"Currency War" has no real meaning. Competitive devaluation between neighbors took place numerous times: Britain in the early 1990's, Agentina and Brazil every decade.

Civil war in some parts of the world is a possibility. The far more severe ones might be those in Russia (when commodity price collapses) and in China (when their communist party collapses). If those giant countries break up into smaller pieces, hopefully peacefully, it will be good thing for the rest of the world.

Reality   befriend   ignore   Sun, 3 Feb 2013, 3:30pm PST   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 186

underwaterman says

You could have said this about Iraq. Look at the war we initiated on this "nothingburger" country with no nuclear weapons and how many years, lives, and money it costs to end up with just another corrupt govt there. The middle east is a hornets nest and is critical to US national interest of oil so it is anything but a "nothingburger" concern.

Nobody is talking about ground invading and occupying Syria. The so-called "scenario" talks about Russia and China coming to the aid of Iran and Syria in a massive stand-off. Well, guess what, they are not. Syria is bending over backwards to avoid a war.

As the US becomes the world's top oil and gas producer, the importance of middleast recedes into the background.

Reality   befriend   ignore   Sun, 3 Feb 2013, 5:11pm PST