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John Williams of Shadowstats.com Interview: The Next Crash Will Be A Lot Worse!

By HousingBoom   Follow   Mon, 28 Jan 2013, 3:31pm   8,388 views   245 comments
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Anyone who thinks the U.S. is in recovery should stop listening to the mainstream media and listen to John Williams. He heads up Shadowstats.com, and is one of the few economists who crunches the numbers to give unvarnished true statistics. Adjusted for real inflation of about 7%, Williams says, "GDP has plunged, and we have been bottom bouncing" ever since the financial crisis started. Williams says, "The next crash will be a lot worse (than 2008) because it will push us into the early stages of hyperinflation." He predicts this will happen "by the end of 2014" at the latest....

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1. HousingBoom Follow Befriend (1) 48 threads 172 comments

   166   8:52pm Thu 31 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   underwaterman says yup1 says I wonder what home prices would be with 7-9% mortgages? The market would collapse. Removing govt supporting 90% of all new mortgages underwriting or increasing interest rates or dumping shadow inventory at once will dramatically impact the housing market to the downside. We saw how quickly it dried up once the home buyer credit expired. It needs govt support to survive at all. Yup! Watch the bond market. It's in the largest bubble in over 200 years and WILL burst because ALL economic bubbles bursts. The sheep won't know what hit them. Bonds have an inverse relationship with rates so you know what that means

2. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,786 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

   167   10:13pm Thu 31 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Call it Crazy says The majority of people buy "payments", they don't buy "houses". ok, i guess the point went over your head. We aren't likely to get higher interest rates, without a very strong improvement in the economy... underwaterman says yup1 says I wonder what home prices would be with 7-9% mortgages? The market would collapse. Removing govt supporting 90% of all new mortgages underwriting or increasing interest rates or dumping shadow inventory at once will dramatically impact the housing market to the downside. We saw how quickly it dried up once the home buyer credit expired. It needs govt support to survive at all. My rate when I bought my second home ever in Phoenix, 16 years ago, was 7.25%... prices went up quite a bit after I bought it despite that rate... It was $103K. I'm buying another home in that area in two weeks, for $86.5K. Salaries struggling as they may, are still better today then they were 16 years ago. I hardly find the premise that "prices would collapse at 7% rates" convincing.... AND rates aren't going to be 7% until the economy is much better. Good luck on your wishful thinking!

3. JodyChunder Follow Befriend (3) 16 threads 1,371 comments Victorville, CA Premium

   168   10:31pm Thu 31 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Contrarian conjecture aside -- you're right, YUP1. There will be no middle class income growth in America in the next decade. (Why would there be?) tatupu70 says yup1 says Raw says Home prices are not overpriced anymore. So says those that own, those that rent believe the opposite, some of those that own (me) still believe the opposite. Home prices are being supported by low interest rates. What happens if rates rise? If rates rise, that means unemployment will certainly have fallen and incomes will be up. So house prices will probably be rising as well.

4. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,627 comments

   169   7:11am Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Call it Crazy says The only way house prices can rise with rising interest rates is if wages rise accordingly.... and we know where wages have been all these past years. Yep, and we know where interest rates have been all these past years. That's the point. If you are betting that interest rates will rise sifnificantly while wages stay stagnant, then you are betting on a very unusual event occurring. Just so you understand that you are the one predicting against history.

5. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,627 comments

   170   7:13am Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   JodyChunder says There will be no middle class income growth in America in the next decade. (Why would there be?) lol. US productivity continues to rise. The only reason there is no median income growth is because it's all going to the 1%. If Obama continues to make taxes more progressive, median income growth will return.

6. lostand confused Follow Befriend (9) 161 threads 1,543 comments Premium

   171   7:15am Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   The FED has pretty much admitted that they will keep rates low until things/unemployment gets better. The current QE, they didn't even set a time limit-they can buy junk for all of eternity. There is no risk in the market for the big players. The only thing that can happen, is if the dam breaks and the flood is large enough to bury even the FED. While unlikely, it may happen-but chances are slim. I think we are stuck at these low rates for a long time.

7. HousingBoom Follow Befriend (1) 48 threads 172 comments

   172   7:28am Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   lostand confused says The only thing that can happen, is if the dam breaks and the flood is large enough to bury even the FED. While unlikely, it may happen-but chances are slim. I think we are stuck at these low rates for a long time. The Fed is the king of creating bubbles. The dam will break sooner or later.

8. ElenaMo313 Follow Befriend 2 threads 24 comments 29 female

   173   10:04am Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   tatupu70 says JodyChunder says There will be no middle class income growth in America in the next decade. (Why would there be?) lol. US productivity continues to rise. The only reason there is no median income growth is because it's all going to the 1%. If Obama continues to make taxes more progressive, median income growth will return. I think this will be one vital solution to the problem--more money definitely needs to trickle down. That is crucial.

9. The Professor Follow Befriend (5) 24 threads 1,303 comments Premium

   174   10:19am Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   ElenaMo313 says I think this will be one vital solution to the problem--more money definitely needs to trickle down. That is crucial. It is better to be the one who pees rather than the one who gets pissed on. How long can we get peed on before we get pissed off?

10. SFace Follow Befriend (2) 61 threads 1,301 comments Premium

    175   2:05pm Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   underwaterman says Math idiot is more like it Ignore Kindergarden math and think more applied math.

11. SFace Follow Befriend (2) 61 threads 1,301 comments Premium

    176   2:10pm Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   underwaterman says 699-449=250. 250/449 = 56% increase in payment for a 4% rise in interest rate rise. 250 payment delta is basically 25 more hours of work a month or for a typical worker who works 168, it is 15% raise from $10.00 to 11.50 gets to the same result or some combo. That is the linear model where everything else stays the same, which will not. As much as you believe 7.5% interest will come from some economic collapse, chances are it is due to the red hot econcomy. In which case, I expect people to have way more money than they currently do now in addition to demand for wage escalation beyond 15%. More people will have way more money on your scenerio. Wages is only a small reason that explains why housing price is what it is, wealth is the dominant reason.

12. bgamall4 Follow Befriend (14) 751 threads 2,584 comments 63 male Las Vegas, NV bgamall4's website Premium

    177   2:48pm Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   KarlRoveIsScum says The Derivatives market was only 500 trillion in 2008 when it almost blew up in all our faces. Now it is 3 times that size, what a monster balloon! when it blows no one survives that has money in the banks or in the mattress. You better start investing in silver and gold which is real money not fiat. Bill Gross says gold is leveraged and will get killed too. I say cash is king because it is a store of value and it is also LIQUID.

13. SFace Follow Befriend (2) 61 threads 1,301 comments Premium

    178   2:49pm Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   underwaterman says Sface, aren't you the same idiot that makes the statement that you ignore all experts including billionaires like Eric Sprott, Paulson, Soros, etc? Your beliefs just as miss robertas are somehow more believable than experts on the topics? I don't think so. Just more ignorant BS from you clowns. I read everything, doens't mean I need to believe it or come to the same conclusion. Huge difference. Your experts are gold bugs and they sell the same story told 10 different ways. Believe it or not, I argued with AZrob quite a bit in 2010-2011 and disagreed on a lot of things. Just telling it the way I see it.

14. bgamall4 Follow Befriend (14) 751 threads 2,584 comments 63 male Las Vegas, NV bgamall4's website Premium

    179   2:56pm Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says . First, unemployment will go down, THEN, incomes will rise. In a global environment I am not confident in the latter statement. Unemployment will drop but wages will likely not rise much.

15. bgamall4 Follow Befriend (14) 751 threads 2,584 comments 63 male Las Vegas, NV bgamall4's website Premium

    180   2:58pm Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   underwaterman says Would disagree with that. 700 Trillion in derivative exposure is gigantic risk that is bigger now than in 2008. That recent 1 London Whale Trade of JP morgans makes that quite clear how the big players can't control things. Just as their quants and their math models didn't account for houses depreciating at once in 2008, they won't get bailed out forever. More countries will start looking at Iceland for the way out by downsizing the financial industry and getting back to fundamentals that grow an economy: Since the US is the reserve currency we don't have to, although we should, downsize the financial industry. Only if the people refuse their products will it be forced to downsize.

16. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,786 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    181   4:41pm Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   underwaterman says robertoaribas says Salaries struggling as they may, are still better today then they were 16 years ago. This is why I keep calling you ignorant and stupid. You state your beliefs and anecdotal evidence as some kind of proof of anything. How can you be a professor of anything when you make such dumb statements? Incomes have stayed flat for 80% of the population for the last 44 years adjusted no, you call me ignorant and stupid because you are a jealous asshole who lost money on housing, and likely will lose more on silver.... that chart of yours is salaries adjusted for inflaiton; However, your future mortgage payment is not adjusted for inflation, and yes, salaries in real terms are a good deal higher today then they were 16 years ago; 16 years ago, i bought a 3/2 in north Phoenix for $103K, with interest rates at 7.25%. [sold in 2005 for $176K... ] In 2 weeks, i am buying a 4/2 in the same neighborhood for $86K... If you think rates gong back to 7.25% will crash that home's value, when it would have been worth more 16 years ago at precisely those interest rates, you are even stupider than I thought...

17. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,627 comments

    182   5:00pm Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   underwaterman says And, more dumb ass anecdotal evidence ignoring the effect a 7.5% interest rate would have on leverage mortgage payments. Just more of the same BS miss roberta Everyone understands the effect that higher interest rates has on mortgage payments. Believe me, we get it. But we also understand the historical relationship between interest rates and wage inflation. Like I said earlier, interest rates don't rise and fall randomly--they move in response to macroeconomic factors. And those factors historically have also had an effect on wage inflation. So, for you to completely ignore the historical relationship shows your ignorance.

18. David Losh Follow Befriend (2) 8 threads 1,126 comments Seattle, WA David Losh's website Premium

    183   5:07pm Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   It's another high jacked real estate thread by underwaterman. underwaterman says Another ad hominem personal attack via my profitable investment. I've yet to hear about your profitable investments, yet you want us all to tell you ours in great detail. So far all I've ever read you say is Real Estate bad, gold good, because Glenn Beck tells me all these other people have made fortunes from gold. That's it, and yet you keep mucking up Real Estate threads with your psycho babble.

19. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,786 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    184   5:11pm Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   underwaterman says And, more dumb ass anecdotal evidence ignoring the effect a 7.5% interest rate would have on leverage mortgage payments. Just more of the same BS miss roberta. Making every post about yourself just displays your narcissism and lack of knowledge on the topics presented. Lets see: $86K home, 20% down, tax 900, insurance 600 3.5% payment = $433.94 7.25% payment = $594.34 Home will rent for $1100 a month... maybe you just really don't know how to do simple math? I know you aren't very bright, but you keep saying over and over how when rates go to 7.25% it will crash the market... yeah, ONLY paying $500 less than the rent is going to be so terrible to those future buyers, you know when those rates go flying up and all cause that is going to happen any day now! You really don't get anything about markets, buying homes, investing, anything!

20. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,786 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    185   5:30pm Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   underwear bad investor: You have yet to answer how this imagined rate increase is going to crash the market... Come on now... Lets see: $86K home, 20% down, tax 900, insurance 600 3.5% payment = $433.94 7.25% payment = $594.34 Home will rent for $1100 a month... You've said it over and over how rising rates will destroy me. Please do explain!

21. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,786 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    186   5:46pm Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   underwaterman says robertoaribas says underwear bad investor: You have yet to answer how this imagined rate increase is going to crash the market... Come on now... Lets see: $86K home, 20% down, tax 900, insurance 600 3.5% payment = $433.94 7.25% payment = $594.34 Home will rent for $1100 a month... You've said it over and over how rising rates will destroy me. Please do explain! Same logic idiot even though you try confounding it by your genius math ability: 86000 - 17200 (20%) = 68,800 loan 3.5 % of 68,800 30 yr prin+int= 308 7.5 % of 68,800 30 yr pint+int= 469 469-308=161 diff in payment. 161/308 = 52% increase in payment. Rent, taxes, down, and insurance are the same whether interest is at 3.5% or 7.5%. Ergo sum idiot. Your not a math anything, but a simpleton. Your arguments are crap and so is your math ability. Oh i see, so a payment that is $500 less than the rent will seem terrible... This from YOU the complete moron who bought an investment home that rented for $400 less than his mortgage! You do realize that this is $900 net improvement over your purchase, each and every month? no wonder you lost your ass in home investing! Good luck on that silver thing dearie!

22. bgamall4 Follow Befriend (14) 751 threads 2,584 comments 63 male Las Vegas, NV bgamall4's website Premium

    187   6:08pm Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   underwaterman says The reserve status is ending for the dollar. Maybe, maybe not. As long as America has the strongest military, which I support, and doesn't use it to take over the world, like the idiot neocons support, we will have a reserve currency.

23. bgamall4 Follow Befriend (14) 751 threads 2,584 comments 63 male Las Vegas, NV bgamall4's website Premium

    188   6:09pm Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   underwaterman says Gold is a store of value as well as money. Except for it not being liquid, you are correct. However, in a Business Insider interview he lumped gold in with other commodities that could crash.

24. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,627 comments

    189   6:13pm Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   underwaterman says Yeah, silly me. Wages causes interest rates to go up and down is what your stating. Seems to me the FED is having some kind of causal effect thru their ZIRP policies. Yes, wage inflation accounts for housing interest rates going from 6.5% in 2008 to 3.5% today. Yeah, right. In a sense, it does. You are the one who keeps saying that wages are flat or falling for the last decade. Interest rates and wages move together, so it's not surprising that interest rates are falling.

25. bgamall4 Follow Befriend (14) 751 threads 2,584 comments 63 male Las Vegas, NV bgamall4's website Premium

    190   6:53pm Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   underwaterman says Pretty liquid to me. A simple phone call can liquidate it in storage for cash. That is not always the case. Don't count on it in times of turmoil.

26. bgamall4 Follow Befriend (14) 751 threads 2,584 comments 63 male Las Vegas, NV bgamall4's website Premium

    191   6:53pm Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   underwaterman says Now, as for that house investment to be liquidated, not so easy. Housing is the most illiquid. You are right.

27. David Losh Follow Befriend (2) 8 threads 1,126 comments Seattle, WA David Losh's website Premium

    192   7:05pm Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   underwaterman says personal attacks via my investment, What investment? You have no information here about an investment strategy. Gold isn't an investment strategy. Are you buying, and selling by market timing, because that is the only way to make gold work for you. It's like taking your jewelry in, and out of pawn. You haven't presented a strategy, and yet you are here killing another Real Estate thread with your Glenn Beck gold stories. Then you throw in some insults, and psycho babble, and off you go again. I've outlined some of my investments, but you have only told tales about losses.

28. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,786 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    193   7:49pm Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   underwaterman says robertoaribas says Oh i see, so a payment that is $500 less than the rent will seem terrible No, you still don't see apparently. A 4% interest rate increase means a 52% payment over the original principal and interest. Call it reverse leverage. Your distortions using your toy 86k houses don't change that fact. And in my neck of the woods, 86k isn't even a down payment for houses here. Always creating strawman claim B and arguing against your fictional creation. No wonder you work at a po-dunk junior college. Apparently the ability to reason is not a job requirement there professor ignorance. strawman? made up? that is the home I'm buying in precisely 10 days. You sir claim that this mythical interest rate increase will crash the market, taking me with it... And, you don't seem to understand percentages. robertoaribas says $86K home, 20% down, tax 900, insurance 600 3.5% payment = $433.94 7.25% payment = $594.34 Home will rent for $1100 a month... So, the home owner goes form saving 60% over renting, to ONLY saving 45% over renting!!!! If the mortgage was $1, and went to $6 a month, you'd be screaming about a 5000% increase! you're very funny in your stupidity!! [notice the you're and your... you always use them wrong!]

29. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,786 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    194   7:52pm Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   underwaterman says tatupu70 says In a sense, it does. You are the one who keeps saying that wages are flat or falling for the last decade. Interest rates and wages move together, so it's not surprising that interest rates are falling. There not causal oh dumb one. Yeah, they ain't causal.. But they are correlated, and that is all an investor needs to know... But hey, you do know that one of the FED's mandates is "full employment" and their primary tool to encourage that is interest rates, so you'd have to be pretty dumb to not see the connection... Then again, you've sort of established that already!

30. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,786 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    195   10:22pm Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   underwaterman says robertoaribas says that is the home I'm buying in precisely 10 days. Congratulations, you've made the discussion all about you again narcissist. This shit gets old. let's see, you call my example hypothetical and made up... I respond that I'm actually buying it, so it isn't hypothetical and made up... and then you call me narcissistic... 1. choice 1, its made up nonsesne. 2. choice 2, I'm bragging and narcisistic... you do realize that everybody reading this blog recognizes how jealous of me you are? it's really getting sad! I'm sorry you are a loser; you lost money in homes, did your wife leave you then too? That's what I'd guess from the bitterness you post.

31. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,786 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    196   10:24pm Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   underwaterman says I see your confusing wages with unemployment there sport. Since you know nothing about economics, I'll clue you in... when employment gets tight, wages go up... Hey, it's Supply and Demand again, this time in labor! you know, the concepts I use to make money in real estate that you never understood, causing you to lose money in real estate!

32. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,786 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    197   10:27pm Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   underwater, you are a poor little loser and a coward. You insult my intelligence all the time. Any time you care to take an IQ test with say $10,000 on the line, I'll take the bet. post your name, and who you are on here, we'll analyze your housing "profits" cough cough, short sale or foreclosure, and then find a college testing center and compare... we all know you are too much of a coward to ever do this!

33. bgamall4 Follow Befriend (14) 751 threads 2,584 comments 63 male Las Vegas, NV bgamall4's website Premium

    198   10:30pm Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   underwaterman says We are not going to go against China and Russia and beat them into submission and force them to buy our treasury bonds. I think you are wrong about that. I think a desperate US would threaten and maybe already has implied a threat.

34. bgamall4 Follow Befriend (14) 751 threads 2,584 comments 63 male Las Vegas, NV bgamall4's website Premium

    199   10:31pm Fri 1 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   underwaterman says In my case it is. Places like goldmoney turn it into cash with a mouse click regardless of turmoil or non-turmoil. Who says you will have internet in a crisis?

35. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,627 comments

    200   6:15am Sat 2 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   underwaterman says There not causal oh dumb one. Of course not, oh reading comprehension deficient one. I never claimed they were.

36. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,786 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    201   6:36am Sat 2 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   underwaterman says Getting back to a real discussion about how the economy is growing and is just peachy with those magical rising wages and the rapid rise of house prices in 2012 and that disappearing unemployment with yet another round of QE 3 and 4 soon to be infinity and those 1.2 trillion dollar deficits: I guess that proves it then. I guess prices didn't rise over the past 12 months in the US, and I guess they aren't up 40% in Phoenix, since the bottom... Funny how reality doesn't give a crap about your reasons it can't do what it is doing!

37. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,786 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    202   6:59am Sat 2 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   underwaterman says The world doesn't revolve around you nor your investment. You're an annoying little narcissitic ignorant ant on the forums. Ok, let's look at your investing wisdom!!!!

38. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    203   7:29am Sat 2 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   underwaterman says your an expert whose to clue me in on economics underwaterman says Boy, I hope I used the words "you're and your" correctly here professor because we all know how important that is now. Unfortunately...

39. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,786 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    204   9:19am Sat 2 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   underwaterman says Is 220k suppossed to be the top of the house prices in the South Bay area here, specifically san jose and cupertino? Was I supposed to have bought in May and Sept 2004 if I read your chart correctly? How do you arrive at the specific months? its the case-shiller index, can't you read? by your own posts, those are the dates you bought and sold, and you claim to have made a profit... Funny that you won't post an address, so one could compare the 2004 and 2005 purchase price, to your 2012 sales price... I'm betting short sale is why you refuse!!!! Hey, here is the same chart for me!

40. The Professor Follow Befriend (5) 24 threads 1,303 comments Premium

    205   9:24am Sat 2 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says The Professor says I do not believe the creation of the Fed was a good thing. I definitely don't think going off the gold standard in 1971 was good. you and zero economists agree... Faulty research? Or did you just make this up?

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