John Williams of Interview: The Next Crash Will Be A Lot Worse!

By HousingBoom   follow   Mon, 28 Jan 2013, 7:31am PST   ↑ Like (1)   ↓ Dislike (1)   23,232 views   190 comments   Watch (1)   Share   Quote  

Anyone who thinks the U.S. is in recovery should stop listening to the mainstream media and listen to John Williams. He heads up, and is one of the few economists who crunches the numbers to give unvarnished true statistics. Adjusted for real inflation of about 7%, Williams says, "GDP has plunged, and we have been bottom bouncing" ever since the financial crisis started. Williams says, "The next crash will be a lot worse (than 2008) because it will push us into the early stages of hyperinflation." He predicts this will happen "by the end of 2014" at the latest....

« First     « Previous     Comments 151-190 of 190     Last »

HousingBoom   befriend (1)   ignore (0)   Thu, 31 Jan 2013, 11:28pm PST   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 151

lostand confused says

The only thing that can happen, is if the dam breaks and the flood is large enough to bury even the FED. While unlikely, it may happen-but chances are slim. I think we are stuck at these low rates for a long time.

The Fed is the king of creating bubbles. The dam will break sooner or later.

ElenaMo313   befriend (0)   ignore (0)   Fri, 1 Feb 2013, 2:04am PST   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 152

tatupu70 says

JodyChunder says

There will be no middle class income growth in America in the next decade.

(Why would there be?)

lol. US productivity continues to rise. The only reason there is no median income growth is because it's all going to the 1%. If Obama continues to make taxes more progressive, median income growth will return.

I think this will be one vital solution to the problem--more money definitely needs to trickle down. That is crucial.

The Professor   befriend (4)   ignore (3)   Fri, 1 Feb 2013, 2:19am PST   Like   Dislike (1)     Share   Quote   Comment 153

ElenaMo313 says

I think this will be one vital solution to the problem--more money definitely needs to trickle down. That is crucial.

It is better to be the one who pees rather than the one who gets pissed on. How long can we get peed on before we get pissed off?

tatupu70   befriend (3)   ignore (12)   Fri, 1 Feb 2013, 9:00am PST   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 154

underwaterman says

And, more dumb ass anecdotal evidence ignoring the effect a 7.5% interest rate would have on leverage mortgage payments. Just more of the same BS miss roberta

Everyone understands the effect that higher interest rates has on mortgage payments. Believe me, we get it.

But we also understand the historical relationship between interest rates and wage inflation. Like I said earlier, interest rates don't rise and fall randomly--they move in response to macroeconomic factors. And those factors historically have also had an effect on wage inflation.

So, for you to completely ignore the historical relationship shows your ignorance.

David Losh   befriend (2)   ignore (1)   Fri, 1 Feb 2013, 9:07am PST   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 155

It's another high jacked real estate thread by underwaterman. underwaterman says

Another ad hominem personal attack via my profitable investment.

I've yet to hear about your profitable investments, yet you want us all to tell you ours in great detail. So far all I've ever read you say is Real Estate bad, gold good, because Glenn Beck tells me all these other people have made fortunes from gold.

That's it, and yet you keep mucking up Real Estate threads with your psycho babble.

tatupu70   befriend (3)   ignore (12)   Fri, 1 Feb 2013, 10:13am PST   Like (1)   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 156

underwaterman says

Yeah, silly me. Wages causes interest rates to go up and down is what your stating. Seems to me the FED is having some kind of causal effect thru their ZIRP policies. Yes, wage inflation accounts for housing interest rates going from 6.5% in 2008 to 3.5% today. Yeah, right.

In a sense, it does. You are the one who keeps saying that wages are flat or falling for the last decade. Interest rates and wages move together, so it's not surprising that interest rates are falling.

David Losh   befriend (2)   ignore (1)   Fri, 1 Feb 2013, 11:05am PST   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 157

underwaterman says

personal attacks via my investment,

What investment?

You have no information here about an investment strategy.

Gold isn't an investment strategy.

Are you buying, and selling by market timing, because that is the only way to make gold work for you.

It's like taking your jewelry in, and out of pawn.

You haven't presented a strategy, and yet you are here killing another Real Estate thread with your Glenn Beck gold stories.

Then you throw in some insults, and psycho babble, and off you go again.

I've outlined some of my investments, but you have only told tales about losses.

tatupu70   befriend (3)   ignore (12)   Fri, 1 Feb 2013, 10:15pm PST   Like   Dislike (1)     Share   Quote   Comment 158

underwaterman says

There not causal oh dumb one.

Of course not, oh reading comprehension deficient one. I never claimed they were.

Bigsby   befriend (0)   ignore (14)   Fri, 1 Feb 2013, 11:29pm PST   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 159

underwaterman says

your an expert whose to clue me in on economics

underwaterman says

Boy, I hope I used the words "you're and your" correctly here professor because we all know how important that is now.


The Professor   befriend (4)   ignore (3)   Sat, 2 Feb 2013, 1:24am PST   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 160

robertoaribas says

The Professor says

I do not believe the creation of the Fed was a good thing. I definitely don't think going off the gold standard in 1971 was good.

you and zero economists agree...

Faulty research? Or did you just make this up?

The Professor   befriend (4)   ignore (3)   Sat, 2 Feb 2013, 3:22am PST   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 161

robertoaribas says

The Professor says

robertoaribas says

The Professor says

I do not believe the creation of the Fed was a good thing. I definitely don't think going off the gold standard in 1971 was good.

you and zero economists agree...

Faulty research? Or did you just make this up?

Nope. It is literally 0%!

Good! You're making progress! You have gone from zero to literally zero!

In my original statement, "I do not believe the creation of the Fed was a good thing. I definitely don't think going off the gold standard in 1971 was good." I did not advocate going back on the gold standard I just pointed out that I thought it was a bad idea to go off of it.

I still hold that giving a quasi-secret supra-governmental authority control over our currency is a bad idea.

Do you think the fed is doing a good job?

David Losh   befriend (2)   ignore (1)   Sat, 2 Feb 2013, 4:06am PST   Like (1)   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 162

underwaterman says

I think I'll keep my info private thank you.

underwaterman says

Here come the clowns into the thread derailing it making their usual attacks on the person, never the argument.

underwaterman says

I would suggest the one below. It gives a good overview of how the fed was formed secretely in 1910 by rich bankers

So, now you admit you have no strategy, just the same old, tired conspiracy of the Fed with the Gold Standard, but you can't get the Glenn Beck connection.

You should get a white board and put all the conspiracy theories up there to prove your point, it's what Glenn Beck does.

Now, you have nothing here that indicates you have any working knowledge about politics, or the economy, so there is nothing there to address.

You're making random comments about wages, or unemployment, maybe the federal deficit, that's always a good one, but nothing that ties it to the Gold Standard.

We have been over this before, repeatedly, on other threads you have high jacked.

So, this is another Real Estate thread; for you Real Estate is bad, gold is good. OK, we got that, and the personal attacks that you make against everybody, but you ultimately have nothing to say.

Reality   befriend (0)   ignore (6)   Sat, 2 Feb 2013, 4:55am PST   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 163

robertoaribas says

Nope. It is literally 0%!

Most of those guys and gals had previous funding from the FED, and aspire to be on the FED Board of Governors some day just like Bernanke the ex-and-future Princeton Professor. Interesting to note, one of them had the balls not to answer the question.

Congrats on your purchases. However, a 10% or so rental yield is not especially high. I'd think a couple years ago when everyone's crystal balls were cloudy, 20% rental yield should have been do-able. Is the current investments that you are making simply due to inertia and cash flow stream from the houses having to have a place to go?

David Losh   befriend (2)   ignore (1)   Sat, 2 Feb 2013, 8:17am PST   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Share   Quote   Comment 164

underwaterman says

You know you just keep repeating things right?

That is exactly what you do.

You don't have any discussions, input, or information, it's just the same stalking, and insults.

I don't see why Roberto wastes his time responding to you, because you never have a come back, response, or clarity of thought.

Ironman   befriend (0)   ignore (11)   Sat, 2 Feb 2013, 1:25pm PST   Like   Dislike (2)     Share   Quote   Comment 165

robertoaribas says

I will post that graph everywhere you ever decide to give investment advice.

What happened, did you just learn Photoshop, so now you want to show everyone how superior you are in playing with graphs???

Bigsby   befriend (0)   ignore (14)   Sat, 2 Feb 2013, 7:56pm PST   Like (1)   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 166

underwaterman says

I noticed your quite obsessed with your investment and have an excessive need to let everyone know about it with practically each and every post whether it has anything to do with the topic or not. You are overcompensating because your insecure. Buying in a bubble of 2012 and sinking all your networth into houses in one market with the level of systemic risk in the economy and competing against all the other investors driving the bubble in phoenix should leave you give your pause for concern.

Presumably not remotely similar to you constantly talking about precious metals and how you went all in in 2012 using all that money you made selling your 5 houses in 2012, houses you bought in 2003, 2005 and 2006. It's also amusing how you think his 2012 purchases in Phoenix are buying in a bubble. What exactly were you thinking in 03/05/06?

David Losh   befriend (2)   ignore (1)   Sun, 3 Feb 2013, 3:04am PST   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 167

underwaterman says

gold numeraire (which is real money)

Gold is a commodity. There is no gold money on the market today.'

That is what I mean by you repeating conspiracy theories.

We don't have hyper inflation which is just a fact of life.

Our government has printed tons of money, but there is no hyper inflation.

Hyper inflation isn't coming, deflation is.

This is a Real estate thread that you chose to high jack. It's boring, and without merit.

You have no point so there is nothing to address.

David9   befriend (4)   ignore (0)   Sun, 3 Feb 2013, 7:03am PST   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 168

David Losh says

It's boring, and without merit.

Yeah, 12 minutes of 33 is all I can take on a Sunday, started watching a couple times before too.

All I can say is that if there is any 'systemic collapse' that we are still in danger of, it's going to kept a secret.

6 years is a long time to deal with anything.

Reality   befriend (0)   ignore (6)   Sun, 3 Feb 2013, 9:47am PST   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 169

underwaterman says

David9 says

All I can say is that if there is any 'systemic collapse' that we are still in danger of, it's going to kept a secret.

Don't think it is going to play out in secret.

Here, take a look at a simulation by james rickards, he's the guy that designed the first financial warfare simulations for the pentagon. It is 8 minutes and gives you some sense of how currency wars can play out:

This whole scenario is absurd. There is nothing to prevent COMEX declare Force Major and refuse delivery if anyone tries to corner the market like Hunts Brothers did. Better yet, 2000tons can be delivered over many years, just like what the USFED is doing to Germany's 300tons of their "own" gold. Even more importantly, there's nothing the Chinese leader would do when getting stiffed, just like the Germans government officials are not doing jack when getting "gently" stiffed. Even more than Angela Merkle, Chinese leaders actually have their kids in the US attending colleges. What? Bomb their own kids? It's ridiculous.

The trade deficit itself will reverse shortly as the US becomes the top oil and gas producer in the world, and manufacturing comes back to the US due to automation.

JodyChunder   befriend (2)   ignore (5)   Sun, 3 Feb 2013, 12:07pm PST   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 170

David Losh says

Gold is a commodity.

God is an even better one.

David Losh   befriend (2)   ignore (1)   Sun, 3 Feb 2013, 1:08pm PST   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 171

underwaterman says

hyperinflation is coming (read the article of the post your in dummy)

You should read the post. Hyperinflation had a chance, but it never materialized.

That is the problem. Hyperinflation isn't coming, but deflation is.

The global economy is contracting, we are past peak energy, and there is a real need for resource distribution.

The Deriviatives market stands a $1 Quadrillion, and that is another meaningless number.

You have nothing here.

The video itself has something to offer in terms of discussion, but you have only conspiracy theory hysteria to quote.

Move along back to your silver thread fantasies, and leave Real Estate alone, it obviously eludes you.

David Losh   befriend (2)   ignore (1)   Sun, 3 Feb 2013, 1:11pm PST   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 172

Reality says

The trade deficit itself will reverse shortly as the US becomes the top oil and gas producer in the world, and manufacturing comes back to the US due to automation.

These are valid points. What I think most conspiracy theory hysteria misses is that we are a global economy, with more transparency than there has been ever before.

The world is changing.

Reality   befriend (0)   ignore (6)   Sun, 3 Feb 2013, 2:32pm PST   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 173

underwaterman says

For the comment about the COMEX James is explaining that if the chinese buy contracts on the COMEX and attempt to call them all in at once they will simply settle in cash because they have the ability to do so in the contract. Normally if a client has a futures contract and wants to take delivery the COMEX does this.

So in other words, it's a big Nothingburger. James Rickards is a book seller. If he is really as important to the Pentagon as he implies, the Pentagon wouldn't be allowing him to make all those noises.

Here's the bottom line:

1. If the Chinese really want to maximize the gold they can buy from the international market, they would be buying it quietly with minimal impact to price as possible. The idea of demanding delivery on 150,000 contracts (2000tons) all at once is more than absurd. And as I mentioned in my previous post, and Rickards admit, even if they did, it would be a Nothingburger as the rules of Comex is set up precisely to prevent such attempt at cornering the market. The Comex is a price discovery place for the industry, not a price manipulation place (although there are arguments for PTB manipulating it the other way; if you believe so, go pick up more gold for yourself, quietly)

2. The scenario that he presents goes off on a non-starter. The next assumption that the Chinese government would somehow resort to war of any sort for denied delivery is even more absurd. Frankly, even if the Chinese have its military watch all its gold, it can not guarantee some of it does not flow back to the US or some of the officials knowingly accept tungsten bars! That's how hopelessly corrupt the Chinese bureaucracy is. Ours are not much better, but given a choice, corrupt bureaucrats in either country would still prefer parking the rest of their lives and their personal wealth in the US than in China. We are not talking about US vs. Switzerland or vs.Cayman Island or even Canada here.

3. The Syrian response to Israeli bombing so far should give you a hint how those international hissy fits work. Big Nothingburger when one party is way too occupied with domestic issues. Just like the Syrian leader's top priority is ensuring he and his family would spend the rest of their lives abroad after their regime is toppled (therefore extremely unlikely to respond to Israeli attack), the Chinese leaders already have their family members in the US and other western countries as citizens of the newly adopted countries. What do you think they will do when their creeky regime is under international pressure? Big Nothingburger.

The coming "collapse" is not some kind of international war, but a financial collapse that will transfer even more of the damage to the creditors of the US government. There's nothing the creditors can do about it. That includes domestic and international bond holders, and cash holders, as well as holders of all sorts of promises by the governments of the world. A real war of any kind is however highly unlikely.

Reality   befriend (0)   ignore (6)   Sun, 3 Feb 2013, 3:16pm PST   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 174

underwaterman says

They are already doing this and also buying gold mines. The scenarios are for the escalation of the currency wars and possibilities.

"This" meaning they are trying to get gold without driving up price. The so-called scenario is the exact opposite: presenting 150,000 contracts for delivery all at once would only drive up price without getting them any gold.]

underwaterman says

n fact, it seems to be following the beginning of the scenario with Isreal bombing Syria another middle eastern country similar to Iran.

And the Syrian response has been? The Syrian president doesn't even dare to call Israeli action as an act of war, for crying out loud. There is no WWIII if one side has no intention of fighting.

underwaterman says

The Chinese are already engaging in currency wars and executing computer attacks already against US companies like google and the US govt.

"Currency war" is no more a war than a "junkyard war." It's just a term that the government uses to cover up for its irresponsible debasement of local currency. The Chinese government hasn't even engaged in deliberate debasement of its own Yen lately. If anything, the Chinese Yen is artificially trading at a level much higher than what a free float would land it: millions of Chinese probably would prefer converting their savings to the US dollar. Computer network penentrations are the sort of things all governments waste their time on. The Chinese government is quite divided internally regarding relationship to Google, due to one faction's financial/censorship interest in a domestic competitor in China.

underwaterman says

History shows this is exactly how world wars get started by some small first attack that seems unimportant but escalates.

Also, there is Russia and China backing Syria not insignificant military powers.

History shows that there have been far more forecasts of world wars than actual world wars. You have to have two sides both think themselves can win before any major war can take place. In the current world, nobody is interested in engaging the US in a global war, aside from the infamous patsy "toilet" organization.

Reality   befriend (0)   ignore (6)   Sun, 3 Feb 2013, 3:27pm PST   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 175

underwaterman says

I suggest you read the book or read up on what the end result is of currency wars and start listening to the people paid to predict them for the military.

The military has dozens and dozens of war scenarios at any given time. That's what the military is paid to do, and how they get funding.

Those countries holding the gold at the end of musical chairs wins.

King Darius of Persia must be wondering how he lost his empire to Alexander. Heck, how did Croesus lose his?

Countries are also going to need all those commodities to survive and is why China is spending it's time buying commodity companies all over the world and stockpile them

There is no real shortage of commodities in the world. The Chinese have been buying much in the last few years simply because they do not have better investment ideas. IMHO, in the long run, they will lose money on those hoards.

while the US is wasting away printing fake dollars trying to pump up the stock and housing markets. When the US needs those rare earth materials and can't have them how do you think they will get them?

Mine them and buy them. Rare earth material is not rare. It's all over the world, just takes time and effort to mine. The Chinese accounted for much of the world's production only because their labor used to be cheap and they didn't give a rat's ass about polluting their environment mining the stuff.

Do you see countries in the middle east at peace like Egypt or Syria because the currency wars are making food prices in those countries too expensive so the population implodes into civil war?

"Currency War" has no real meaning. Competitive devaluation between neighbors took place numerous times: Britain in the early 1990's, Agentina and Brazil every decade.

Civil war in some parts of the world is a possibility. The far more severe ones might be those in Russia (when commodity price collapses) and in China (when their communist party collapses). If those giant countries break up into smaller pieces, hopefully peacefully, it will be good thing for the rest of the world.

Reality   befriend (0)   ignore (6)   Sun, 3 Feb 2013, 3:30pm PST   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 176

underwaterman says

You could have said this about Iraq. Look at the war we initiated on this "nothingburger" country with no nuclear weapons and how many years, lives, and money it costs to end up with just another corrupt govt there. The middle east is a hornets nest and is critical to US national interest of oil so it is anything but a "nothingburger" concern.

Nobody is talking about ground invading and occupying Syria. The so-called "scenario" talks about Russia and China coming to the aid of Iran and Syria in a massive stand-off. Well, guess what, they are not. Syria is bending over backwards to avoid a war.

As the US becomes the world's top oil and gas producer, the importance of middleast recedes into the background.

Reality   befriend (0)   ignore (6)   Sun, 3 Feb 2013, 5:11pm PST   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 177

underwaterman says

It's more than that in terms of its effects on populations. From what I've read it leads to higher food prices in other less competitive countries like egypt and india. People starving because of our policies seems more than a "junkyard war" to me.

The so-called "currency war," i.e. deliberate devaluation of domestic currency, causes food price to rise in one's OWN country! It's a war by the government on its OWN people. It's not an international war as the war mongers would like you to believe.

underwaterman says

Probably one reason why the war will take place using currencies and other financial mechanisms in my opinion.

"Currency War" in the modern statist world has nothing to do with waging war on another country. It refers to the deliberate debasement of one's own currency. i.e. government waging war on its own people! They call competitive currency debasement "currency war" only as a way of putting lipstick on the pig so the regime's predatory action against its own people is dressed up in patriotism. Like the old saying goes, patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel.

Russia got caught sending in military people from one article I read to help train syria's military. It will be done covertly at first like this but doesn't mean it won't escalate or find other means to wage the war that can be just as bad for the population.

Russia is doing it for money; i.e. existing military contract. Russia is not keen on having a military conflict with the US. Nor are they capable of projecting power across Turkey, a member of NATO, or across Iraq, which has US military bases. These are the two countries interspacing Russia and Syria.

underwaterman says

I think terrorist organizations are definitely interested

In case my previous words: patsy "toilet" organization, was too obstuse, here's another hint: that same patsy calling-itself-"toilet"-in-native-language organization also seems to pop up wherever "our" military wants to go, like Afghanistan, Yemen, and now West Africa. . . and wouldn't you know it, they are actually fighting on "our" side in Lybia and Syria! A "war on terror" is not going to become WWIII. It's a boondoggle that has been going on for over a decade, and will in all likelihood continue as a low-intensity war all over the world paving ways for western military deployment everywhere. The long-term strategy seems to be denial of access to Russia and China, forcing them to fight each other over resources on their own mutual long border.

Given that enormous amount of oil and gas resources just made available thanks to new drilling technology, a war between them over the oil wells in the Stans and Siberia is not going to happen any time soon. Each of them is far more likely to fall apart from within due to their own domestic reasons.

Kevin   befriend (0)   ignore (3)   Sun, 3 Feb 2013, 5:14pm PST   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 178

Why are you people still debating under waterman? We've already established that he has no idea what he's talking about.

Reality   befriend (0)   ignore (6)   Sun, 3 Feb 2013, 5:45pm PST   Like   Dislike     Share   Quote   Comment 179

underwaterman says

Not according to James Rickards. We export inflation to other less developed countries first. I tend to believe him watching the arab spring appear with the QEs.

Richards is either an idiot or a propagandist, probably a mix of both. The developing countries feel the effect of dollar inflation because their currencies are linked to the dollar. i.e. their governments debase their currencies automatically whenever our FED does. It is their own government waging war against their own citizens through currency debasement along with ours. Nothing magical about it.

underwaterman says

There are many variables at play and why the run scenarios to find out what they are and plan for them. What is the interaction between currency wars and the international banking system? Derivatives? Etc?

That's all bullshit with a few fancy words thrown in that has nothing to do with the context.

underwaterman says

That's one interpretation. Another is that they are growing more aggressive against the US and you see this with Putin and his statements and actions in the press. They don't seem particularly scared of us anymore with wacko's like him running the govt.

Nationalism sells as a political device in just about any country. Putin is facing domestic political problems. A drop in oil price will make his position even less tenable. Would he dare to challenge the US directly? Not a chance, and even he knows it, just like the Chinese.

underwaterman says

Yeah that argument seems reasonable until one thinks of them building a dirty nuclear bomb or sabotaging a US nuclear facility here or even China and Russia accelerating their drone technology and giving it to whoever will buy it.

"Dirty bomb" is a mind trick giving wannabe terrorists a rope to hang themselves. Think about it, if a passerby can get radiation sickness from the material after it spreads, what do you think would happen to the builder of the device during assembly and transportation when the poor SOB has to be close to all the material for many hours? I suppose when things get really bad in Detroit, someone might want to wipe it off the map as a potential political liability. But that's long in the future if ever. Keep in mind, the clowns can't accomplish anything without agents helping them. In any case, I wouldn't buy any property near Detroit.

As for Russia and China, why would they want to sell any drone technology to anyone that can easily use it to bomb themselves? Both Russia and China have far more violent domestic muslim enclaves that demand independence. "Our" Al-CIA-da may well be funneling money to those organizations as standard destabilization procedures. G