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Anyone who thinks the U.S. is in recovery should stop listening to the mainstream media and listen to John Williams. He heads up Shadowstats.com, and is one of the few economists who crunches the numbers to give unvarnished true statistics. Adjusted for real inflation of about 7%, Williams says, "GDP has plunged, and we have been bottom bouncing" ever since the financial crisis started. Williams says, "The next crash will be a lot worse (than 2008) because it will push us into the early stages of hyperinflation." He predicts this will happen "by the end of 2014" at the latest....
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The Professor says
http://blogs.wsj.com/ideas-market/2012/01/23/survey-no-support-for-gold-standard-among-top-economists/
Nope. It is literally 0%!
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robertoaribas says
Good! You're making progress! You have gone from zero to literally zero!
http://mises.org/daily/5379/The-Gold-Standard-Myths-and-Lies
In my original statement, "I do not believe the creation of the Fed was a good thing. I definitely don't think going off the gold standard in 1971 was good." I did not advocate going back on the gold standard I just pointed out that I thought it was a bad idea to go off of it.
I still hold that giving a quasi-secret supra-governmental authority control over our currency is a bad idea.
Do you think the fed is doing a good job?
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underwaterman says
underwaterman says
underwaterman says
So, now you admit you have no strategy, just the same old, tired conspiracy of the Fed with the Gold Standard, but you can't get the Glenn Beck connection.
You should get a white board and put all the conspiracy theories up there to prove your point, it's what Glenn Beck does.
Now, you have nothing here that indicates you have any working knowledge about politics, or the economy, so there is nothing there to address.
You're making random comments about wages, or unemployment, maybe the federal deficit, that's always a good one, but nothing that ties it to the Gold Standard.
We have been over this before, repeatedly, on other threads you have high jacked.
So, this is another Real Estate thread; for you Real Estate is bad, gold is good. OK, we got that, and the personal attacks that you make against everybody, but you ultimately have nothing to say.
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robertoaribas says
Most of those guys and gals had previous funding from the FED, and aspire to be on the FED Board of Governors some day just like Bernanke the ex-and-future Princeton Professor. Interesting to note, one of them had the balls not to answer the question.
Congrats on your purchases. However, a 10% or so rental yield is not especially high. I'd think a couple years ago when everyone's crystal balls were cloudy, 20% rental yield should have been do-able. Is the current investments that you are making simply due to inertia and cash flow stream from the houses having to have a place to go?
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underwaterman says
Apparently, despite the hours you spend on this real estate blog, you don't know what case-shiller, or an index number is. They aren't prices dipshit, they are indices, compared to a prior year, which was set to 100.
And, you contradicted all over yourself; In the same thread, you have
1. claimed you "sold all 5 of your homes to buy gold and silver"
2. still own homes in michigan and washington.
you are a complete and utter fraud.
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underwaterman says
That is exactly what you do.
You don't have any discussions, input, or information, it's just the same stalking, and insults.
I don't see why Roberto wastes his time responding to you, because you never have a come back, response, or clarity of thought.
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It's ok, underwear smeller man!
I'll just keep posting your home buying timing, and mine... so everyone can compare who invests in things they understand, and who doesn't... mine in Phoenix, yours in the bay area!
They say a picture is worth a thousand words... my pic is worth $6000 a month ,yours was worth -$400 a month.. until you short sold it!
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underwaterman says
All from your very own posts on here. Your buying in 05,05... crying about losing $400 a month in rent while you went further underwater... begging for an attorney to do a forensic audit of your mortgages so you could try to weasel out of your debts... your timing on your sales.
You sir, where the source of all the information, so unless you posted pure lies about yourself... there isn't much for you to say...
I will post that graph everywhere you ever decide to give investment advice.
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robertoaribas says
What happened, did you just learn Photoshop, so now you want to show everyone how superior you are in playing with graphs???
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underwaterman says
What, did you delete them? no problem, some time when I'm bored, I'll use the wayback machine, and screen shot the old versions versus your deletions!
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underwaterman says
I'd say that is your old lady, contemplating her future with you!
but seriously, YOU sir posted the timing of your bay area buys and sales... You'll notice I'm not ashamed of mine! I don't put up cheap salacious photos to run away from the obvious conclusion: you screwed the pooch!
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underwaterman says
Presumably not remotely similar to you constantly talking about precious metals and how you went all in in 2012 using all that money you made selling your 5 houses in 2012, houses you bought in 2003, 2005 and 2006. It's also amusing how you think his 2012 purchases in Phoenix are buying in a bubble. What exactly were you thinking in 03/05/06?
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underwaterman says
Gold is a commodity. There is no gold money on the market today.'
That is what I mean by you repeating conspiracy theories.
We don't have hyper inflation which is just a fact of life.
Our government has printed tons of money, but there is no hyper inflation.
Hyper inflation isn't coming, deflation is.
This is a Real estate thread that you chose to high jack. It's boring, and without merit.
You have no point so there is nothing to address.
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David Losh says
Yeah, 12 minutes of 33 is all I can take on a Sunday, started watching a couple times before too.
All I can say is that if there is any 'systemic collapse' that we are still in danger of, it's going to kept a secret.
6 years is a long time to deal with anything.
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underwaterman says
This whole scenario is absurd. There is nothing to prevent COMEX declare Force Major and refuse delivery if anyone tries to corner the market like Hunts Brothers did. Better yet, 2000tons can be delivered over many years, just like what the USFED is doing to Germany's 300tons of their "own" gold. Even more importantly, there's nothing the Chinese leader would do when getting stiffed, just like the Germans government officials are not doing jack when getting "gently" stiffed. Even more than Angela Merkle, Chinese leaders actually have their kids in the US attending colleges. What? Bomb their own kids? It's ridiculous.
The trade deficit itself will reverse shortly as the US becomes the top oil and gas producer in the world, and manufacturing comes back to the US due to automation.
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David Losh says
God is an even better one.
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underwaterman says
You should read the post. Hyperinflation had a chance, but it never materialized.
That is the problem. Hyperinflation isn't coming, but deflation is.
The global economy is contracting, we are past peak energy, and there is a real need for resource distribution.
The Deriviatives market stands a $1 Quadrillion, and that is another meaningless number.
You have nothing here.
The video itself has something to offer in terms of discussion, but you have only conspiracy theory hysteria to quote.
Move along back to your silver thread fantasies, and leave Real Estate alone, it obviously eludes you.
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Reality says
These are valid points. What I think most conspiracy theory hysteria misses is that we are a global economy, with more transparency than there has been ever before.
The world is changing.
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underwaterman says
So in other words, it's a big Nothingburger. James Rickards is a book seller. If he is really as important to the Pentagon as he implies, the Pentagon wouldn't be allowing him to make all those noises.
Here's the bottom line:
1. If the Chinese really want to maximize the gold they can buy from the international market, they would be buying it quietly with minimal impact to price as possible. The idea of demanding delivery on 150,000 contracts (2000tons) all at once is more than absurd. And as I mentioned in my previous post, and Rickards admit, even if they did, it would be a Nothingburger as the rules of Comex is set up precisely to prevent such attempt at cornering the market. The Comex is a price discovery place for the industry, not a price manipulation place (although there are arguments for PTB manipulating it the other way; if you believe so, go pick up more gold for yourself, quietly)
2. The scenario that he presents goes off on a non-starter. The next assumption that the Chinese government would somehow resort to war of any sort for denied delivery is even more absurd. Frankly, even if the Chinese have its military watch all its gold, it can not guarantee some of it does not flow back to the US or some of the officials knowingly accept tungsten bars! That's how hopelessly corrupt the Chinese bureaucracy is. Ours are not much better, but given a choice, corrupt bureaucrats in either country would still prefer parking the rest of their lives and their personal wealth in the US than in China. We are not talking about US vs. Switzerland or vs.Cayman Island or even Canada here.
3. The Syrian response to Israeli bombing so far should give you a hint how those international hissy fits work. Big Nothingburger when one party is way too occupied with domestic issues. Just like the Syrian leader's top priority is ensuring he and his family would spend the rest of their lives abroad after their regime is toppled (therefore extremely unlikely to respond to Israeli attack), the Chinese leaders already have their family members in the US and other western countries as citizens of the newly adopted countries. What do you think they will do when their creeky regime is under international pressure? Big Nothingburger.
The coming "collapse" is not some kind of international war, but a financial collapse that will transfer even more of the damage to the creditors of the US government. There's nothing the creditors can do about it. That includes domestic and international bond holders, and cash holders, as well as holders of all sorts of promises by the governments of the world. A real war of any kind is however highly unlikely.
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underwaterman says
"This" meaning they are trying to get gold without driving up price. The so-called scenario is the exact opposite: presenting 150,000 contracts for delivery all at once would only drive up price without getting them any gold.]
underwaterman says
And the Syrian response has been? The Syrian president doesn't even dare to call Israeli action as an act of war, for crying out loud. There is no WWIII if one side has no intention of fighting.
underwaterman says
"Currency war" is no more a war than a "junkyard war." It's just a term that the government uses to cover up for its irresponsible debasement of local currency. The Chinese government hasn't even engaged in deliberate debasement of its own Yen lately. If anything, the Chinese Yen is artificially trading at a level much higher than what a free float would land it: millions of Chinese probably would prefer converting their savings to the US dollar. Computer network penentrations are the sort of things all governments waste their time on. The Chinese government is quite divided internally regarding relationship to Google, due to one faction's financial/censorship interest in a domestic competitor in China.
underwaterman says
History shows that there have been far more forecasts of world wars than actual world wars. You have to have two sides both think themselves can win before any major war can take place. In the current world, nobody is interested in engaging the US in a global war, aside from the infamous patsy "toilet" organization.
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underwaterman says
The military has dozens and dozens of war scenarios at any given time. That's what the military is paid to do, and how they get funding.
King Darius of Persia must be wondering how he lost his empire to Alexander. Heck, how did Croesus lose his?
There is no real shortage of commodities in the world. The Chinese have been buying much in the last few years simply because they do not have better investment ideas. IMHO, in the long run, they will lose money on those hoards.
Mine them and buy them. Rare earth material is not rare. It's all over the world, just takes time and effort to mine. The Chinese accounted for much of the world's production only because their labor used to be cheap and they didn't give a rat's ass about polluting their environment mining the stuff.
"Currency War" has no real meaning. Competitive devaluation between neighbors took place numerous times: Britain in the early 1990's, Agentina and Brazil every decade.
Civil war in some parts of the world is a possibility. The far more severe ones might be those in Russia (when commodity price collapses) and in China (when their communist party collapses). If those giant countries break up into smaller pieces, hopefully peacefully, it will be good thing for the rest of the world.
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underwaterman says
Nobody is talking about ground invading and occupying Syria. The so-called "scenario" talks about Russia and China coming to the aid of Iran and Syria in a massive stand-off. Well, guess what, they are not. Syria is bending over backwards to avoid a war.
As the US becomes the world's top oil and gas producer, the importance of middleast recedes into the background.
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underwaterman says
The so-called "currency war," i.e. deliberate devaluation of domestic currency, causes food price to rise in one's OWN country! It's a war by the government on its OWN people. It's not an international war as the war mongers would like you to believe.
underwaterman says
"Currency War" in the modern statist world has nothing to do with waging war on another country. It refers to the deliberate debasement of one's own currency. i.e. government waging war on its own people! They call competitive currency debasement "currency war" only as a way of putting lipstick on the pig so the regime's predatory action against its own people is dressed up in patriotism. Like the old saying goes, patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel.
Russia is doing it for money; i.e. existing military contract. Russia is not keen on having a military conflict with the US. Nor are they capable of projecting power across Turkey, a member of NATO, or across Iraq, which has US military bases. These are the two countries interspacing Russia and Syria.
underwaterman says
In case my previous words: patsy "toilet" organization, was too obstuse, here's another hint: that same patsy calling-itself-"toilet"-in-native-language organization also seems to pop up wherever "our" military wants to go, like Afghanistan, Yemen, and now West Africa. . . and wouldn't you know it, they are actually fighting on "our" side in Lybia and Syria! A "war on terror" is not going to become WWIII. It's a boondoggle that has been going on for over a decade, and will in all likelihood continue as a low-intensity war all over the world paving ways for western military deployment everywhere. The long-term strategy seems to be denial of access to Russia and China, forcing them to fight each other over resources on their own mutual long border.
Given that enormous amount of oil and gas resources just made available thanks to new drilling technology, a war between them over the oil wells in the Stans and Siberia is not going to happen any time soon. Each of them is far more likely to fall apart from within due to their own domestic reasons.
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Why are you people still debating under waterman? We've already established that he has no idea what he's talking about.
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underwaterman says
Richards is either an idiot or a propagandist, probably a mix of both. The developing countries feel the effect of dollar inflation because their currencies are linked to the dollar. i.e. their governments debase their currencies automatically whenever our FED does. It is their own government waging war against their own citizens through currency debasement along with ours. Nothing magical about it.
underwaterman says
That's all bullshit with a few fancy words thrown in that has nothing to do with the context.
underwaterman says
Nationalism sells as a political device in just about any country. Putin is facing domestic political problems. A drop in oil price will make his position even less tenable. Would he dare to challenge the US directly? Not a chance, and even he knows it, just like the Chinese.
underwaterman says
"Dirty bomb" is a mind trick giving wannabe terrorists a rope to hang themselves. Think about it, if a passerby can get radiation sickness from the material after it spreads, what do you think would happen to the builder of the device during assembly and transportation when the poor SOB has to be close to all the material for many hours? I suppose when things get really bad in Detroit, someone might want to wipe it off the map as a potential political liability. But that's long in the future if ever. Keep in mind, the clowns can't accomplish anything without agents helping them. In any case, I wouldn't buy any property near Detroit.
As for Russia and China, why would they want to sell any drone technology to anyone that can easily use it to bomb themselves? Both Russia and China have far more violent domestic muslim enclaves that demand independence. "Our" Al-CIA-da may well be funneling money to those organizations as standard destabilization procedures. Gosh knows, the Russian and Chinese regimes deserve it. Let's just hope the whole thing doesn't turn into another blow-back.
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underwaterman says
Do you know anything about the original military meaning of "Fog of War"? It has nothing to do with the strategic level outlook.
I don't think you have any personal experience on planning or conducting any military operation, real or simulated. So there is no "from my experience" to speak of.
McNamara was talking about the brain fog that every central planner that has micromanagement tendencies suffers from.
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underwaterman says
I just checked, and this is in the Real Estate section.
It's here in the Real Estate section because the idea is that hyperinflation make the debt loads of things like mortgages look benign.
It's been discussed since 2008, but as much as the governments of the world try hyperinflation hasn't happened, and didn't happen.
We all wish it would, but the facts indicate otherwise.
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Reality says
That would be the Chinese Yuan, Yen is Japanese.
underwaterman says
Gold isn't a counter currency, and never will be. We are shipping Germany's gold because Germany needs gold to prop up their own currency, the same as the Chinese are doing.
It's a trick for the feeble minded who think gold has value.
The United States on the other hand has energy resources. The United States has a robust economy which is what you are trying to say, but you don't know what you are saying.
Fighting wars economically is a Viet Nam era 1970s theory. We have engaged in economic warfare ever since then.
Currencies fell by the wayside with the creation of the Euro, the fall of Russia, and the rise of the rupee in India.
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underwaterman says
This is the ultimate nut job, Glenn Beck, rational for gold.
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Kevin says
Because underwaterman is everywhere you don't want him, or her.
He, or she throws up six comments to make some random points, and kills any thread he, or she, goes to.
You can ignore him, or her, but that leaves the threads disjointed.
The purpose of the rantings is unclear, but it might as well run it's course.
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underwaterman says
That's rich. The military has been a profession since time began.
You're now trying to fit military terms into your conspiracies about the economy, or more specificly about currencies compared to gold.
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underwaterman says
Then ignore me so I can attack your crazy ideas all I want without having you responding to it.
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underwaterman says
Really not a great recommendation.
underwaterman says
You haven't presented any facts to that, just opinions about a "currency war." That currency war concept died in the 1990s.
Just look at what was the Yuan, Ruble, or Euro before the economic crisis, and the rise of the Rupee since then.
There is no currency war. There was some saber rattling about the petro dollars, and reserve currency, but that faded with the lack of economic ability of countries like Russia, or China, or Europe for that matter.
Face it, we are in a global economc contraction which blows your theories to heck.
underwaterman says
That sure sounds like a conspiracy theory to me.
At the same time there is nothing to say that with the proper cooperation governments can't fix the global economy so that "terrorists" don't feel the need to attack.
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David Losh says
While I agree in principal, it isn't a war against other countries, I think from an economics point of view, it is somewhat obvious that many countries are weakening their currencies for reasons of creating or protecting export jobs, or simply to encourage domestic investment and help out financial institutions. While not a war, per-se, the net result is a hell of a lot of stimulative monetary operations world wide.
David Losh says
An improving world economy would certainly help, and in cases such as Israel and Palestine, I'd say the dire economic and abusive conditions the status quo forces on Palestinians certainly is an excellent breading ground for terrorism, I'd say it is a bit naive to think a good economy would stop all terrorism... Bin Laden was rich as hell, and many with him are idealists and thus their economic fortune means nothing to their political bent. The Arab spring has done more to stop world wide terrorism than anything else, as energies for change can now be focused at home.
But, gold has gone nowhere this year, despite all the currency wars... and yet he who shall not be named quotes bulls who predicted $10,000 ounces by now... hmm....
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Give it a bloody rest, why don't you?
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Bigsby says
Now, now bigsby! We are providing a valuable public service here! Obviously, the poor guy is quite upset about his losses. It is far easier for him to externalize his anger, than to come to grips with it!
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underwaterman says
This is a joke, right? I have read James Rickards articles for over a decade. The guy has been a metal bull for a long time, but the war nonsense is recent. Here's some clue for you: I bought bulk silver for the first time in the year 2000, at around $4 per ounce. First purchase was a 1000oz bar off someone disappointed by the Y2K Nothingburger.
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underwaterman says
Even "terrorists" have to operate within the laws of physics. The "terrorists" don't do original inventions. They follow the scenarios already laid out by the likes of Rand Corporation and Tom Clancy novels. Using airliners as flying missles was a plot element for nearly a decade before being carried out for real.
"Dirty Bomb" is an idea for the the really gullible. If you believe that, you might believe the "walking dirty bomb" where the "terrorist" swallows highly radioactive material and irradiates others on public transportation through his guts. LOL. That will work even better than selling overly sensitive explosive material to bomb makers . . . at killing wannabe terrorists. That will teach them a lesson: don't become a terrorist, the government doesn't like competition.
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How much will you cry, when the apocolypse never comes? when Gold and SIlver turn out to be mediocre at best investments, and my homes keep on paying rent and increasing in price?? SInce you studied pysch, can you get discounted rates on some help for your deep seated problems? jealousy? the eventual depression that is coming your way?