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Home prices see best yearly gain since 2006


By Call it Crazy   Follow   Tue, 29 Jan 2013, 7:02am   555 views   19 comments
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.....I knew the headline would catch your eye!!

Now, to the article..

....."NEW YORK (Reuters) - Single-family home prices rose in November, building on a string of gains that point to a housing market that is on the mend, data from a closely watched survey showed on Tuesday."

...."The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas gained 0.6 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, in line with economists' forecasts."

Look in the paragraph above, see those words "Seasonally Adjusted"? So, the index gained 0.6 percent WITH "Seasonal Adjustments.... got it?

Let's continue...

....."Prices on a non-adjusted basis slipped 0.1 percent. The non-adjusted numbers showed prices fell in about half of the cities covered by the survey, with the winter months typically a weak period for housing, the survey said."

Oh, so if you decide to look at ACTUAL numbers ("non-adjusted basis")and DON'T pour honey on the turd, the real numbers SLIPPED 0.1 percent...

Thank god we have economists that are so good tweaking numbers and manipulating data until it sounds good for the media!!!!

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-prices-continue-climb-november-140149324.html

What the hell are you doing still sitting here reading my post??? Get out and buy a house before prices are totally out of reach!!!

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  1. iwog


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    1   7:11am Tue 29 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected  

    Prices only dropping .1 percent in November is extremely bullish considering in a typical winter prices will drop around 5% before recovering in the Spring.

    The seasonally adjusted index is an attempt to quantify these cycles. Instead of saying "The index only dropped .1% which is actually fantastic considering it usually drops .7% in November", the Case-Shiller adjusted index says "The market rose by .6%"

    Likewise if real estate underperforms this Spring and Summer, the CS adjusted index will be lower than the raw data and you will no doubt come back and sing the praises of the CS adjusted index regardless of what the raw data says.

  2. Call it Crazy


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    2   7:22am Tue 29 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    iwog says

    Prices only dropping .1 percent in November is extremely bullish considering in a typical winter prices will drop around 5% before recovering in the Spring.

    They could of "spun" it even better... The NSA was down .2 percent the month before, so they should of said that the NSA rose .1 percent this month... They missed even more "positive" news......

  3. iwog


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    3   7:26am Tue 29 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Call it Crazy says

    They could of "spun" it even better... The NSA was down .2 percent the month before, so they should of said that the NSA rose .1 percent this month... They missed even more "positive" news......

    It's not spin. It's an attempt to quantify the data better. If you want to see spin, go back and read some of your posts from early 2012 where you predict doom and gloom right before the market exploded.

    Like this one:

    So, Do You REALLY Think We Are At The Bottom???
    http://patrick.net/forum/?p=1214169

    YES!!!!! The answer is YES my child!! We WERE at bottom and now I can't buy a house within $50,000 of what they cost last year.

    Fail.

  4. Call it Crazy


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    4   7:32am Tue 29 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    iwog says

    Like this one:

    So, Do You REALLY Think We Are At The Bottom???

    http://patrick.net/forum/?p=1214169

    Nice!! Yea, I guess we shouldn't read and post any articles written by RealtyTrac..... they have no clue what's going on in the market, right???

    We should just ask YOU, as it seems, you have ALL the answers!!

  5. Call it Crazy


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    5   7:34am Tue 29 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    Data from the CS article from today.. which covers Oct to Nov (before the Winter actually kicked in)

    *

  6. iwog


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    6   8:02am Tue 29 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Call it Crazy says

    Data from the CS article from today.. which covers Oct to Nov (before the Winter actually kicked in)

    So you're going to continue being willfully ignorant eh? The winter slump starts in late Summer when the kids are getting ready to go back to school. Stop trying to pretend you are a RE expert and fucking listen to people who actually know what the market does.

    I'm an arrogant asshole too, but at least I know when to shut up.

  7. lostand confused


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    7   8:05am Tue 29 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Well, it appears the CS index has posted the second consecutive monthly decline . However year over year prices have risen and Phoenix has risen the most, with Las Vegas and Detroit posing double digit annual increases. Mixed bag I guess?
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-29/case-shiller-home-price-index-posts-second-consecutive-monthly-decline-average-home-

  8. iwog


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    8   8:10am Tue 29 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    lostand confused says

    Well, it appears the CS index has posted the second consecutive monthly decline . However year over year prices have risen and Phoenix has risen the most, with Las Vegas and Detroit posing double digit annual increases. Mixed bag I guess?

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-29/case-shiller-home-price-index-posts-second-consecutive-monthly-decline-average-home-

    This is the hottest winter RE sales season since the expansion of the bubble. There is no way whatsoever that anyone can characterize this as a slump, dip, or bear market.

    Go try and buy a house and you'd find out.

  9. Call it Crazy


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    9   8:18am Tue 29 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    iwog says

    I'm an arrogant asshole too, but at least I know when to shut up.

    EPIC ... nominated for the post of the year!!!

  10. Call it Crazy


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    10   8:20am Tue 29 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    lostand confused says

    However year over year prices have risen and Phoenix has risen the most, with Las Vegas and Detroit posing double digit annual increases. Mixed bag I guess?

    Just remember, Phoenix collapsed like 75% where other areas went down like 30%. So, Phoenix getting 20% back still doesn't get them close to everyone else.

  11. Call it Crazy


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    11   8:22am Tue 29 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    iwog says

    Go try and buy a house and you'd find out.

    I've been trying... lowest inventory in 5 years and most of what's on the market is over priced short sales.....

  12. Call it Crazy


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    12   11:56am Tue 29 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    robertoaribas says

    This is going to be a very interesting spring:

    Inventory has been droppin all January here in Phoenix, it usually climbs.

    ...."I know that people desperately want homes to again become "wealth creating machines." despite every bit of common sense indicating that they are instead depreciating assets that generate zero positive cash flow if you happen to live in one, but the data is just not there yet."

    ...."Well, except in places like Phoenix where the bubble ran rampant and people are quite ready to give that wheel one more spin. Never mind that Phoenix is facing some very serious long-term water challenges that will rear their head well before the houses they are buying will come to the end of their serviceable life, the people in Phoenix want to party again."

    ...."Okay. Best of luck to them, or perhaps I should say better luck this time."

    http://www.peakprosperity.com/discussion/80632/housing-really-recovering

  13. leo707


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    13   1:01pm Tue 29 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    Anytime we want, we'll cut LA off and keep the water for ourselves.

    Good luck with that. It would probably happen around the same time that everyone up the Colorado river basin turns off the tap for Arizona.

    robertoaribas says

    At any time, Phoenix could cut its water use in half, by raising prices and encouraging conservation. Give me a credit, and I'll cover the pool, or get rid of the grass that I hate anyways.

    It is a little bit mind boggling why they are not doing this now, but then again Arizona gets pretty poor ratings on their environmental planning for the future.

    robertoaribas says

    By the time water gets expensive, we''ll just pipe it up from the gulf of california and desalinate it...

    Yeah, now we are talking about some very expensive water, this type of solution would not surprise me.

    Call it Crazy says

    Never mind that Phoenix is facing some very serious long-term water challenges that will rear their head well before the houses they are buying will come to the end of their serviceable life

    Yep, in another 40 years or so Phoenix is likely going to face some serious water issues.

    The whole issue on Arizona's water future was discussed at length in this thread:
    http://patrick.net/forum/?p=1213579

  14. Mark D


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    14   1:05pm Tue 29 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Crazy having problems understanding seasonality again. It's NOT that complicated!

  15. curious2


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    15   1:05pm Tue 29 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Translation: housing price inflation at highest level in six years. QE is producing inflation, as designed.

  16. Call it Crazy


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    16   1:28pm Tue 29 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    Mark D says

    Crazy having problems understanding seasonality again.

    Do you really want to rehash that again???

    Mark D says

    It's NOT that complicated!

    Who said it was complicated? It's just a bullshit way to report actual conditions....

    Do you use "seasonality" to balance your checkbook??

  17. Call it Crazy


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    17   1:35pm Tue 29 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    robertoaribas says

    Its 50 degrees in Phoenix today; I guess that is proof this city is getting cold!

    global warming my arse, I'm not taking any seasonally adjusted numbers!!!!

    You should, seasonally adjusted, your current temperature is 60 degrees.... just ignore the ACTUAL temp of 50 degrees.... That doesn't mean anything in today's world of number spinning...

    See, that's how it works.... it's 60 degrees, so all the tourists should come down, NOW!!

  18. Philistine


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    18   2:10pm Tue 29 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    curious2 says

    housing price inflation at highest level in six years. QE is producing
    inflation, as designed.

    Except where is the wage inflation to go with it? Guess the real estate barons will have their gilded age and the rest of us can have gruel for dinner. No possum, no sop, no taters.

  19. curious2


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    19   2:16pm Tue 29 Jan 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Philistine says

    Except where is the wage inflation to go with it? Guess the real estate barons will have their gilded age and the rest of us can have gruel for dinner.

    Yes, follow the money and you can see who's pulling the strings. There might have been wage inflation if the unions had more power, but instead we see inflation throughout the FIRE sector (securities, insurance, housing).

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