This really irks me. Even in pocket digital cameras, anything over 6MP is effectively useless because the CMOS sensors in those are so small that your SNR (signal to noise ratio) of incoming light to sensor noise swamps out any benefit from more pixels in the same surface area. Megapixels are just marketing mumbo-jumbo outside of digital SLRs that have 4x - 20x the sensor surface area for gathering light than even the best pocket camera (the Sony ones with APS sensors are not really "pocket" sized).
Then you get to the phone space, where the sensor has 10%, at best, of the surface area of a cheap pocket digital camera. Software noise reduction can only do so much to try to make up for the physical limitations of the camera hardware.
Good post, esp. the fact that Apple is completely missing out on the car and appliance market which RIMM is trying to repopulate, Thought RIMM was done, but it's getting interesting again. But I hope Apple will keep making money because if they tank eventually we will have to bail them out because we cannot afford an entire nation of boomers riverboating and gambling in the market to lose their retirement - but, but my stockbroker said it can only go up!!
nevertheless, it isn't a problem. I just plug it in my car, or my office. However the damn ipad will run for days and days without being plugged in, and I watch movies on it all the time with amazon prime or netflix.
So I see these as a PC companion, among other things, and not the PC replacement.
What you are missing, is that lots of people have more interest in CONSUMING information not doing complex manipulation. Even those of us who work in computer science, when I'm not working I want things as simple as possible. Remote control simple. Apple mastered that, Microsoft never did. For some people the only interactions they have are simple and easily handled by an appliance device. My parents for example I used to have a ThinkNIC device to give them a SIMPLE bulletproof computer. Do you need a full computer to check prescriptions or MediCare website or send a few emails? Nope. Replaced the ThinkNIC when it died with my old 1st-gen iPad. There are some people who will NEVER own a desktop computer but will have a smartphone or tablet. Hard to believe but true.
The laptop/desktop will not die. However say in 2004 you wanted to do some trivial interaction like transfer money between 2 bank accounts to avoid overdraft. You might have whipped out the laptop you packed around everywhere. Did you need a laptop for that job? No, but it was the "least" tech you could carry around that would easily accomplish those tasks. Now you no longer carry that laptop everywhere, you carry a smaller device that is handier. I do expect laptop/desktop to decrease in numbers. They last longer than they used to and frankly we've hit a point of diminishing returns for "faster/better" in terms of next year's model. The desktop I'm using I put together in 2006 and will probably use it until 2016!
I doubt you've listened to anything I say Captain, but I had to try.
I read everything you have to say Vince.
And I agree with everything you said, especially the "The laptop/desktop will not die. " part. But I do agree that their numbers will diminish, and you are right, Moores law seems to have plateaued, and the interest in defeating Moores law has diminished with it.
It will be interesting to see how the PC market plays out in the future.
Since critical mass wont be a price point factor, we could very well see the return of $3000 entry level PCs and laptops. That the few PC holdouts will have no choice but to carry that burden, as the Facebook users wont be sharing the load of volume production setting a low price point.
I also see Android OS or some flavor there of, being a standard fixture in any appliance or electronic device that needs a control panel. But I also see Android splitting from Google and becoming their entity.
I didn't realize Apple was launching an 128GB iPhone, but that's great news. I would eventually like to have all of my music, podcasts, educational seminars on my phone with me without running into my carrier's bandwidth caps. One more step in doubling flash memory might not be that innovative, but it goes one more step to solving problems I'm having with storage.