Apple is missing the boat.
I read in comments in yet another CNN "All Hail Apple" article, someone commented "now all we need is a file system."
Which then trying to make the PC obsolete would be a moot point, as then the Tablet would essentially be a PC, at that point. It would be a PC with touch screen for IO instead of mouse or keyboard, which by then I'm sure they will have Bluetooth connectivity for a mouse like they have for the KB already. Then what would essentially be?
Where as the hand held computing devices aren't poised to replace the PC at all. But the smart PadOS makers should be looking for ways to get their OS in every device and appliance that man uses ever day. As these devices will be life's remote control more than the PC replacement.
I'm waiting for them to realize that one of the best applications of handheld devices could be to remote desktop into your PC at work or home to do tasks that they can only do on their PC. So I see these as a PC companion, among other things, and not the PC replacement.
And if Apple continues down this path, they will go the way of Packard Bell.
So I see these as a PC companion, among other things, and not the PC replacement.
What you are missing, is that lots of people have more interest in CONSUMING information not doing complex manipulation. Even those of us who work in computer science, when I'm not working I want things as simple as possible. Remote control simple. Apple mastered that, Microsoft never did. For some people the only interactions they have are simple and easily handled by an appliance device. My parents for example I used to have a ThinkNIC device to give them a SIMPLE bulletproof computer. Do you need a full computer to check prescriptions or MediCare website or send a few emails? Nope. Replaced the ThinkNIC when it died with my old 1st-gen iPad. There are some people who will NEVER own a desktop computer but will have a smartphone or tablet. Hard to believe but true.
The laptop/desktop will not die. However say in 2004 you wanted to do some trivial interaction like transfer money between 2 bank accounts to avoid overdraft. You might have whipped out the laptop you packed around everywhere. Did you need a laptop for that job? No, but it was the "least" tech you could carry around that would easily accomplish those tasks. Now you no longer carry that laptop everywhere, you carry a smaller device that is handier. I do expect laptop/desktop to decrease in numbers. They last longer than they used to and frankly we've hit a point of diminishing returns for "faster/better" in terms of next year's model. The desktop I'm using I put together in 2006 and will probably use it until 2016!
I doubt you've listened to anything I say Captain, but I had to try.
I read everything you have to say Vince.
And I agree with everything you said, especially the "The laptop/desktop will not die. " part. But I do agree that their numbers will diminish, and you are right, Moores law seems to have plateaued, and the interest in defeating Moores law has diminished with it.
It will be interesting to see how the PC market plays out in the future.
Since critical mass wont be a price point factor, we could very well see the return of $3000 entry level PCs and laptops. That the few PC holdouts will have no choice but to carry that burden, as the Facebook users wont be sharing the load of volume production setting a low price point.
I also see Android OS or some flavor there of, being a standard fixture in any appliance or electronic device that needs a control panel. But I also see Android splitting from Google and becoming their entity.
Hey I thought Intel 'missed the boat'? Haha... People calling me crazy for doubling down when INTC Dipped below $20 .. I'll collect that 4.5% dividend and wait till they put these chips in everything. VIVA x86!!
So my wife has been rocking a low-end Android device for the last 2 years. She hates it because it is slow and somewhat buggy, and she has been about to pull the trigger on an iPhone for a few months. Well, she decided a few days ago that she is getting a Samsung Galaxy instead, despite the reported lower battery life and bugs that it probably has because it runs Android.
Why? Her sister, a HUGE iPhone/iMac junkie, just lost all of her photos and music because iTunes had an error and nuked all of the data on her iPhone 5 before it could get it onto the iCloud or whatever. She can probably recover the music since she paid for it, but the photos appear to be gone. My wife has never really liked iTunes (she stopped using the iPod Touch that she got as a gift because of iTunes) and this sealed the deal. The fact that the Samsung uses removable storage that requires no proprietary anything to interact with is a big selling point now, and she has never really been super tech savvy. I mean, she is a PC/Windows user and she works in high tech sales, so she is far from computer-illiterate, but I never thought that I would see the day where she made a consumer electronics purchase based on actual hardware specs. If Apple can alienate her, it's on its way down as far as I am concerned.
For the record, my wife is Cantonese (from HK), so people that buy into the "Asian girls love iPhones" stereotype should be extra shocked. lol
Her sister, a HUGE iPhone/iMac junkie, just lost all of her photos and music because iTunes had an error and nuked all of the data on her iPhone 5 before it could get it onto the iCloud or whatever.
Forgive me, but I find this unlikely. There's a lot of "or whatever" in that explanation that makes me thing it's user error and not a software issue. Like perhaps user hits "restore" button in iTunes and ignores the warnings about it's reflashing phone to factory defaults and then blames it on the software. iTunes normally keeps a copy of the complete phone contents IF it is configured to do so. If the phone is configured instead to keep contents on iCloud, then it does so by WiFi when it's charging and this is an operation independent of the operation of iTunes.
There is legit room for confusion here, but it's the sort of mixup you could have with any platform. Example First Lady's iPhone backs up data to iCloud also. Got a new phone to replace old one, starting restore from last backup, didn't pay attention to that full backup being from SEPTEMBER! So when it loaded, contacts and such seemed OK but hey there's hundreds of photos missing! However once iCloud synched up the photos appeared it just took a little while coming down over U-Verse.
There is legit room for confusion here, but it's the sort of mixup you could have with any platform.
This is the main point. Apple is, to an increasing number of people, starting to look like a more expensive version of "everything else." I have no doubt that it was a user-induced error. One of Apple's big things is "it just works" and it has many users trained to operate like that. I guarantee that if her sister was doing (whatever) she was doing on an Android phone, she would be more careful about it because she wouldn't want to accidentally delete her stuff. With the Apple phone, she just figures "it works." Not quite.
This really irks me. Even in pocket digital cameras, anything over 6MP is effectively useless because the CMOS sensors in those are so small that your SNR (signal to noise ratio) of incoming light to sensor noise swamps out any benefit from more pixels in the same surface area. Megapixels are just marketing mumbo-jumbo outside of digital SLRs that have 4x - 20x the sensor surface area for gathering light than even the best pocket camera (the Sony ones with APS sensors are not really "pocket" sized).
Then you get to the phone space, where the sensor has 10%, at best, of the surface area of a cheap pocket digital camera. Software noise reduction can only do so much to try to make up for the physical limitations of the camera hardware.
Sface sums up what I"ve been saying all along.
It will be interesting to see what role Umbutu plays in all of this.
I would like to think it will open source, and will be embraced by more DIY'er novice, than Linux got on the PC box.
I have to wonder what will become of Android it seems like money loser for Google's bottom line in the long run. Not now, but in the future, I see Google breaking off Android into their own entity, when their stock prices start faltering.
I doubt that Ubuntu would ever get put onto production hand-held devices. Linux is already on them (Android, iOS). There are many Linux distro's, and its great power is its ability to be tailored for any application. Ubuntu is really an attempt to woo Windows users in the PC space. I don't see it having a place on mobile devices smaller than a tablet. They could strip it down and change the UI, but they would call it something else and it would probably be fairly different, structurally, so it wouldn't be Ubuntu anymore!
Our fearless leader said: When my iPad refused to let me control the volume during a commercial on Pandora, the spell was broken: http://patrick.net/?p=1220062
I don't plan on ever buying anything else again from Apple.
Your alternative is companies 'giving away' consumption devices (but there's always a price). So you've got Amazon's proxied web browser, or a Google Nexus device which tracks your every movement and apps that log phone calls. I swear my Nexus 7 is watching me right now. Gaahhhhh...
And since I'm ranting, here's a real simple task I'm still trying to figure out how to accomplish on the Nexus 7. On my five+ year old Nokia N710 tablet, I can easily bring up youtube to listen to music on headpphones, lock the screen (a dedicated button on the side) and put it in my back pocket while I'm washing dishes in the evening after the kids have gone to bed. Nexus 7 -- not so easy with the builtin YouTube app. Maybe I'm missing something.
Not until it has consumer IR send & receive. I miss IrDA, which enabled NoviiRemote. My old Axim PDA has a VGA screen and IR built in. The iPhone doesn't, and because the S3 is merely a copy of an iPhone, neither of them does.
I'm hoping Amazon will introduce a Kindle phone, because consumer IR would be a logical fit for a company that sells so many devices that use IR remotes.
Nope! WiFi or even Bluetooth controlled.
No IR required.
The Google TV has an IR blaster, an Android phone connects to it using WiFi, the Google TV sends the IR signal to your other devices, television, stereo receiver ect...
I think it's the silliest thing I've ever heard.
The iPhone screen(all smart phones for that matter) is already to damn small, if that were not the case. Then there would have never been a need for tablets. People don't even wear watches anymore.
In fact the day is approaching that people will ask Siri the time.
How much disk space can it have and what good would it do, other than being an over priced, glorified wrist iTunes playlist player?
Do I think they'll sell a million or two? Probably but not much more than that, and in Apple's Universe, the one that they've painted them selves into, that would be a dismal failure.
Why curve the glass? Most people have flat wrists. Are you saying Apple should design for morbidly obese people? That would be a bold new direction for a maker of fashionable products. I guess it would be consistent though with Obamacare's - ahem - larger market of - ahem - "heavy users", who will be shifting their medical costs onto everyone else. Retailers have to follow the market, after all.
tw said: he who controls the semiconductor can create many many things...
There is also a line of thinking that says SoCs are disruptive. What's more valuable: the most advanced process technology or the process technology to which everyone's designed their IP cores? (still can't bring myself to buy Intel...)
Even if it did something REALLY basic over bluetooth like show me who's calling, text messages that'd be enough for me. Example I'm biking and my phone rings, is that my wife calling that I have divert to pick up the kids or is it some doofus I don't want to talk to? Lift my wrist and instantly know if I need to stop and reach for the phone. Full wristphone functions not required. I've been interested in the Pebble. Of course the more it does, the better.
Maybe I should hold out for a wrist-mounted Vortex Manipulator.
There seem to some interesting smartwatches out there right now--If you are into that sort of thing. I doubt that Apple is gong to revolutionized watches they same way they did for phones. My guess is that they will be about as innovative as the iPhone 5.
I don't doubt though that they will sell millions, and Apple fans will drone on about how unique they are and every other smartwatch stole the idea.