Rents are skyrocketing.....oh wait


By dodgerfanjohn   Follow   Sat, 2 Feb 2013, 6:11pm   3,093 views   13 comments
In Los Angeles CA 90017   Watch (2)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

Numerous buildings where I live in Downtown Los Angeles have been raising rents through the later quarter of 2011 and 2012 through about September. Buildings everywhere here advertising 100% occupancy. It was BS and I knew it. KNEW IT. Not sure if people are moving away now(I started seeing more "take over my lease" postings on CL), or if the buildings temporarily laxed their standards of who they would let it.

I started seeing it in the building I live in where all of a sudden we had 8 vacancies(which still isn't much considering its size) and then also noticing people illegally subletting to others(building is super responsive and kicks these people out).

But now I saw new ads at honestly prices lower than when I moved to downtown in 2010...supposedly the bottom of the rental market.

This one....$1299...is just a straight out rock bottom price for the area. The lady has a number of other units....for a central downtown location, this is the lowest I've seen in the past year...

http://losangeles.craigslist.org/lac/apa/3588907877.html

And demonstrably, this is not a outlier. Here we have a larger unit on the penthouse no less(probably an interior unit though...but no feet stomping above you) in a really nice building located within 1-2 blocks of many of the best new restaurants and bars in Downtown:

http://losangeles.craigslist.org/lac/apa/3589962562.html

And again, another sub $1500 loft...a bit far of a walk from the decent stuff on Spring St(which generally starts near 5th, but now will expand up to 4th with the dog park going in).

http://losangeles.craigslist.org/lac/apa/3586809185.html

Heck, even the usually ridicu-expensive Archstone(10 minute freeway ride from DTLA...20 minute street drive at rush hour) has come down significantly...2bd/ba for $1800/mo in a newish upgraded building had been basically unheard of in these parts...

http://losangeles.craigslist.org/lac/apa/3585411716.html

FWIW, if I was going to move at the moment, I'd take this place....and try to get them to knock $100/mo off the price. I'm pretty sure I could get at least $50 off. Anyway, if I could get the $100 off, it would be around the same price I paid when I first moved here...in 2010:

http://losangeles.craigslist.org/lac/apa/3584628488.html

Hmmmm.......few houses on the market....yet rents are falling. Strange how that works when the strings start to come unraveled.

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  1. SubOink


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    1   6:28pm Sat 2 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    dodgerfanjohn says

    Hmmmm.......few houses on the market....yet rents are falling. Strange how that works when the strings start to come unraveled.

    I know a handful of people that moved to downtown LA a few years back telling me just how cool it is - well...they have all moved away again.

    It sucks living there ...thats why rents are falling there.

  2. JodyChunder


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    Victorville, CA

    2   6:39pm Sat 2 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (5)   Dislike  

    SubOink says

    It sucks living there ...thats why rents are falling there.

    Ah, that obviously explains it. People, after all these years, are only *just now* discovering that it sucks, and packing it in to move to Victorville.

  3. lostand confused


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    3   7:07pm Sat 2 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    As I am moving back to SOCAL this month, I too am surprised by the lower rents on craigslist. I was preparing for sticker shock, but just surprised that they were pretty decent -for the areas I am looking at.

    Now that I am finally capitulating on the housing bubble-perhaps the bubble may finally pop!!!!!!

  4. Reality


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    4   7:57pm Sat 2 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)  

    The film tax credit offered by other states probably took a bite of the the SoCal studio industry

  5. dodgerfanjohn


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    5   12:16am Sun 3 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Reality says

    The film tax credit offered by other states probably took a bite of the the SoCal studio industry

    Very very few celebs live in DTLA. Most of those that do are here part time and play for the Lakers, Kings, Clippers, or Dodgers. Film shooting won't affect rents in DTLA.

    SubOink says

    dodgerfanjohn says

    Hmmmm.......few houses on the market....yet rents are falling. Strange how that works when the strings start to come unraveled.

    I know a handful of people that moved to downtown LA a few years back telling me just how cool it is - well...they have all moved away again.

    It sucks living there ...thats why rents are falling there.

    LOL, no it doesn't. Its actually incredible and getting even more incredible by the day. Walking to work is awesome...get my exercise without using extra time in the day, not to mention I rarely drive my car so gas costs are minimal and there is no commute or parking cost. TONS of really pretty ladies. I live just down the street from Staples. So I can slum it up on stub hub and buy tickets at rock bottom prices to see my Clippers or the Kings for minimal cost and walk there in 10 minutes. Oh, and if I wanted, I could walk to and eat at a different restaurant every single night. And walking to the grocery store is pretty damn cool.

    The reasons people leave DTLA are because they lose their $65-120K a year job and can't afford it, because they just have to buy a SFR, or they intend to have kids.

    And oh, they might have moved from the Santee Lofts. The rocket scientists that owned that place gifted their tennents with $500-600/mo rent increases. I'd have moved too. Seems their owners were listening to ol Roberto and IWOG a bit too much. Wonder how that worked out for them.....

    http://losangeles.craigslist.org/lac/apa/3589350026.html

  6. pkennedy


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    6   9:38am Mon 4 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    This isn't the best time to rent. Although in LA it's warm year round, it's more than just the climate. Many businesses shut down during Dec in terms of hiring, finances, etc.

    What you could also be seeing is rents being pushed up massively on people, and people bailing.

  7. Philistine


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    7   10:29am Mon 4 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    dodgerfanjohn says

    Its actually incredible and getting even more incredible by the day.

    We love having DTLA as our backyard playground. It's very slummy, but in an awesome, warm fuzzy way. And when you want high polish things to do, Dorothy Chandler is up the street or you can crash a company shindig/Jewish wedding party at the JW Marriot for the awesome open bar. It's almost what I would call, Vibrant, although, Endearingly Ramshackle might be more honest.

    People who knock DTLA don't belong in cities, which is a controversial term in LA since it's not really a city once you leave the downtown area.

    FWIW, I've only observed rents tracking inflation in LA. Definitely no sky rocketing unless it's just a select few a-hole property managers that are losing occupancy.

  8. dodgerfanjohn


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    8   12:09pm Mon 4 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    pkennedy says

    This isn't the best time to rent. Although in LA it's warm year round, it's more than just the climate. Many businesses shut down during Dec in terms of hiring, finances, etc.

    What you could also be seeing is rents being pushed up massively on people, and people bailing.

    Well that premise could be correct save for the multi examples I provided demonstrating that it isn't.

  9. Nobody


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    San Jose, CA

    9   12:52pm Mon 4 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

    Damn, I am tired of pansies in Los Angeles complaining about the rents. I live in Silicon Valley. The price in L.A. happens only in my dreams in Silicon Valley. I wish I can go where there is no Chinese immigrants cranking up the price of everything.

  10. SiO2


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    10   1:31pm Mon 4 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Nobody says

    Damn, I am tired of pansies in Los Angeles complaining about the rents. I live in Silicon Valley. The price in L.A. happens only in my dreams in Silicon Valley. I wish I can go where there is no Chinese immigrants cranking up the price of everything.

    The Midwest has few immigrants in general. It's way cheaper than SJ. And some people do prefer four actual seasons.

  11. FunTime


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    11   3:50pm Mon 4 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Nobody says

    I wish I can go where there is no Chinese immigrants cranking up the price of everything.

    You can. Please keep trying.

  12. SubOink


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    12   4:57pm Mon 4 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    dodgerfanjohn says

    LOL, no it doesn't. Its actually incredible and getting even more incredible by the day.

    You can't convince me that living downtown is great. From what I have heard from others it sucks. Ok, if your job is there...2 choices...massive commute in and out of downtown (yikes) or...live there. So you really have no choice. For me that would be a deal breaker for the job.
    I work from home so my commute is even shorter than yours :)

    - Can't raise kids well there, no safe outside playing, no parks, swings
    - smog
    - too far away from mountains, ocean and everything that makes CA living great and special
    - you may walk to the grocery store...but where can you hike without first getting in the car and driving far out
    - bums and homeless all over the place
    - restaurants? There are soo many amazing restaurants between Studio City and Thousand Oaks...pretty much everywhere is a wide variety of places...so thats not exactly special
    - how's the grocery market variety? we have whole foods, gelsons, Ralphs, Vons, Trader joes all within 5 minute drive
    - where is a decent daycare center? how many of them are there...and would you put your kids in those?

    So it may work out for you personally because you are not raising kids / have a big family and love walking around downtown but most people just are not into it. If they are into walking around they move to Santa Monica where its nice, beach vicinity and you can walk around everywhere OR they move to NY or SF - lol
    Downtown LA = just Downtown LA ...you are alienated when you live there

    Realtors are pushing the whole hipness factor but I think we are 15 years away from it being somewhat cool again. Maybe.

  13. mdiablo


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    13   8:55am Tue 5 Feb 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    According to data just released by a major RE market research firm, DTLA asking rents rose 1.8% in Q4 and 4.3% for 2012. Vacancy, however, also rose from from 5.3% in Q4 2011 to 7.2% in Q4 2012. They project vacancy to remain around 8% for 2013 and 2014 and rents to increase around 2%. I'm in the business and typically rents do not increase when vacancy is over 5%, so I'm not surprised you are seeing some decreases. There are about 2000 new units coming online from 2012-2014, which is the main reason for the higher vacancy projections IMO.

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