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U.S. housing recovery bogus

By tovarichpeter   Follow   Tue, 12 Mar 2013, 3:39pm   640 views   23 comments
In South San Francisco CA 94080   Watch (0)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/03/08/us-housing-is-the-recovery-real/#.UT-rOgWdr9o.email

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1. errc Follow Befriend (7) 29 threads 1,203 comments 31 male Premium

   1   4:39pm Tue 12 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Ten million empty housing units? Is this true?

2. David9 Follow Befriend (3) 28 threads 747 comments Tarzana, CA

   2   4:46pm Tue 12 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   "Only the connected crony capitalists on Wall Street are getting a piece of this action. The Wall Street big hanging dicks have screwed the American middle class coming and going." One of the most honest articles I have read to date. Only Cash Investors have had ANY opportunity in Southern California for years now.

3. donjumpsuit Follow Befriend 9 threads 402 comments

   3   5:06pm Tue 12 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   The information, or as I like to call it "Facts" in this article are known by most in these forums, except for a few. The article puts them down in a very concise manner. But the very few, and the public still believes everything is OK with housing. Especially in the higher priced areas. They don't see that there are no move-up buyers, and historically low first time buyers. They ignore the manipulation, even support it. They have limited understanding of what is happening in an investment sense, and just see their own few properties increasing in value, and don't worry about the health of the overall market.

4. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,762 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

   4   5:15pm Tue 12 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (4)   yeah this article is great research and information... if you are a freaking idiot who can't think, and you are desperate to reinforce your prior notion that you didn't screw up by waiting last year!!! Let us have an example of a few of the contradictions in here: 1. If rates rise, the investors will scurry for the exists. 2. 1/3 of all homes are bought with cash. sure thing. people like me who bought many homes with cash, will NEVER be the weak hand selling. NOPE! if rates rise, and prices started down, I and the other investors will sit on them forever. and ever and ever. Next contradiction: it isn't a recovery, because new building hasn't kicked back up. SORRY, but that actually is a good thing for the recovery. Here in Phoenix, even after all the price increases of the last two years, existing homes are STILL CHEAPER than new construction; To a smarter investor, that is called a VALUE PLAY. buying a company below book value as it were; If you buy a home below manufacture cost, well it stands to reason that new builds can't compete with your price. Not today, not ever. So, you wait out all the foreclosures, all the short sales, all the flips of auction homes, and guess what? prices have to revert back to a reasonable value. that was one of my motivations for buying, simply put, everything that can't go on forever, doesn't go on forever; applaud this article all you like, because it agrees with what you wish and pray was happening; it is just as wrong as the many other forms of it were last year! and the year before that!! Even more wrong today, as inventory is lower, foreclosures are much fewer, and the market fundamentals have improved markedly. Watch prices continue to climb.

5. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,762 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

   5   5:52pm Tue 12 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   chanakya4773 says there is an exception to this. Lets assume there is a BIG Housing bubble in Phoenix for next 10 years due to extremely low rates. Of course prices sky rocket. In few years , new construction picks up big time and the place is flooded with new homes. Its then over built.then the interest rates rise and the home values revert to the historic long term shiller index values. Now in ten years, phoenix has excess inventory which will depress rent values.by excess inventory , i mean more houses per capita than needed. So you end up with a house which is giving mediocre rents. You cannot escape from the effects of stupidity of the others unless you sell your home at the right time..which i think you seem to be perfectly capable of. so, my big fear... is that my home values skyrocket? I'd sell a few off near the peak then!!! Please, don't continue... I'll start having nightmares about piles of money falling on me, and I'm getting smothered!!! maybe there will be a bubble; but we aren't there yet; today, for an owner occupant, a 200K home that would rent for 1200 a month still makes quite adequate sense to buy an live in... at 300K, not so much unless we are starting to see consistent inflation. That is still another 33% up in prices from today. I'd say the first 10% is damn near sure, given the current supply/demand imbalance, it will happen quite quickly... the next 20%... I'm not betting on. I think the market will likely start to slow down after this year, perhaps by next fall.

6. Mick Russom Follow Befriend (2) 7 threads 530 comments Belmont, CA

   6   12:08am Wed 13 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   robertoaribas says I'll start having nightmares about piles of money falling on me, and I'm getting smothered! yes, because its completely sustainable to have piles of money showered on people who do nothing to earn it. society works that way. every time, right? You would have been a good plantation owner.

7. donjumpsuit Follow Befriend 9 threads 402 comments

   7   6:56am Wed 13 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Once again, as I stated in the previous comment in this thread ... EVERYTHING ISN'T ABOUT YOU. JESUS CHRIST. It's like a virus that wipes out 90% of the population, but you survive. Some (me especially if I am a 10%er) might like this scenario, but most won't. At some point you are going to have to learn how to look at the entire picture and not the tip of you fucking nose. Can we all agree that you are a shrewd real estate investor? Yes, we can all agree. Nobody is disputing this. Can we all agree that your methods are sound, and built to last through mild to moderate recessions? Yes, we can agree. But this is what the idiot says. Phoenix will go first. It seems to have 'risen from the ashes', but it will be the first to go. No jobs, no industries, no income, it will be the first to go. It doesn't really matter if you have 100% occupancy. You have minimal carrying costs. Just don't plan any vacations or early retirement buddy.

8. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,762 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

   8   9:01am Wed 13 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   donjumpsuit says Phoenix will go first. It seems to have 'risen from the ashes', but it will be the first to go. No jobs, no industries, no income, it will be the first to go. yeah, except that it isn't true. Phoenix has been ranked #3 to #5 for US cities job growth for the past 3 years... whenever you idiots want to use facts in your analysis, feel free to start!

9. APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich Follow Befriend (28) 169 threads 4,153 comments Premium

   9   9:03am Wed 13 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike   RIght and Somalia is #4 in maritime safety in Africa.

10. yup1 Follow Befriend 10 threads 379 comments

    10   9:03am Wed 13 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I just read a great line that poor Roberto has trouble understanding. "being overly pessimistic may cost you a short term gain but being overly optimistic may cost you a long term loss of capital."

11. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,762 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    11   9:19am Wed 13 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   yup1 says I just read a great line that poor Roberto has trouble understanding. "being overly pessimistic may cost you a short term gain but being overly optimistic may cost you a long term loss of capital." says the guy who said, "don't buy" 1 and 2 years ago... You losers are just getting funnier and funnier! T-minus 4 years till I retire, and travel the world on my passive incomes! keep working hard on your job yup1!

12. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,826 comments Monterey, CA

    12   9:20am Wed 13 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   yup1 says I just read a great line that poor Roberto has trouble understanding. "being overly pessimistic may cost you a short term gain but being overly optimistic may cost you a long term loss of capital." For some reason, the phrase clutching at straws came to mind when reading that.

13. yup1 Follow Befriend 10 threads 379 comments

    13   9:27am Wed 13 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   robertoaribas says says the guy who said, "don't buy" 1 and 2 years ago... You losers are just getting funnier and funnier! T-minus 4 years till I retire, and travel the world on my passive incomes! keep working hard on your job yup1! And if it collapses again you will post how you sold everything before said collapse and you are posting from your retirement villa, or you just let the homes go back to the bank! No losses for Roberto EVER!

14. yup1 Follow Befriend 10 threads 379 comments

    14   9:30am Wed 13 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Bigsby says For some reason, the phrase clutching at straws came to mind when reading that. Really? I guess I should have put....I just read a great line that poor Roberto and Bigsy has trouble understanding...

15. donjumpsuit Follow Befriend 9 threads 402 comments

    15   1:53pm Wed 13 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   robertoaribas says yeah, except that it isn't true. Phoenix has been ranked #3 to #5 for US cities job growth for the past 3 years... Sorry buddy, I got Phoenix as 45 out of 65 in terms of Large city rank. And it's not even given but a passing glance in the "Best cities for Jobs" article. http://www.newgeography.com/content/002807-the-best-cities-jobs-2012 SO good luck with Go-Daddy and your Copper Mine. Sounds like it's gonna lead to your increase in rents!

16. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,762 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    16   3:07pm Wed 13 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-10-us-cities-with-the-best-job-growth-right-now-24430599.html one of the top 10 areas... phoenix... i guess you get san jose... http://www.businessinsider.com/cities-with-the-highest-job-growth-2012-career-builder-emsi-10?op=1

17. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 228 threads 2,748 comments

    17   6:23pm Wed 13 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   robertoaribas says yeah, except that it isn't true. Phoenix has been ranked #3 to #5 for US cities job growth for the past 3 years... whenever you idiots want to use facts in your analysis, feel free to start! robertoaribas says one of the top 10 areas... phoenix... i guess you get san jose... I can hardly wait to move to this exotic location!!! *

18. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,762 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    18   7:00pm Wed 13 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Dr. Case predicted phoenix prices would drop 8% in a year, about 9 months ago... wasn't it you that quoted it at me? then deleted the post?? hmmm...

19. donjumpsuit Follow Befriend 9 threads 402 comments

    19   7:28am Thu 14 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Phoenix is a SLUM. Who wants to live in a place that get's to 125 degrees? AND see's snow occasionally. PHOENIX. Type 3Br houses for UNDER $750/mo for rent into Craigslist = 1910 listings SF Bay area? ZERO

20. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,762 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    20   9:47am Thu 14 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I guess that explains why Arizona and Phoenix population have continued to grow, while Californians leave...

21. IDDQD Follow Befriend 22 threads 409 comments

    21   10:32am Thu 14 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   donjumpsuit says Type 3Br houses for UNDER $750/mo for rent into Craigslist = 1910 listings Like it's a bad thing for anyone who's not a landlord.

22. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,762 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    22   10:54am Thu 14 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   craigslist is full of spam adds. click through a few of those 1910 adds, and see how many are 1. the same add over and over 2. go to realtors with "we can find you a rental valleywide" 3. obvious scams. I still advertise on craigslist, but it has been years since i've gotten many tenants from them. I get renters from: 1. rentmint.com 2. zillow 3. hotpads 4. realtor.com 5. once in a while, from the mls with an agent. Using craigslist to make a point is silly, use realtor.com or zillow. zillow is very inaccurate as in many will have rented and still show active, but at least it was a real listing at one time. Or use rentometer.com...

23. IDDQD Follow Befriend 22 threads 409 comments

    23   12:15pm Thu 14 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   robertoaribas says craigslist is full of spam adds. It's full of spam adds everywhere.