US home prices surge. Will it hold on


By Tim Aurora   Follow   Tue, 26 Mar 2013, 9:58am   3,517 views   117 comments
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http://news.yahoo.com/us-home-prices-rise-8-130850000.html

US house prices jumped at the highest clip since 2006. So here we are . Let us debate if the prices increase is valid or just another bubble.

Here are the reasons why the prices may go ups

- Unemployment is down. Stock market is at record high ( though not inflation adjusted). Banking crisis is 5 years old
- Builders did not build enough houses in last 5 years.
- Prices are still low compared to the mean
- Lot of pent up demand. Basement kids are coming out
- Inventory is down as currently underwater folks cannot sell anymore
- Jingling mail homeowners are weeded out. Underwater folks who wanted to foreclose are done doing so
- Shadow inventory not high in desirable areas
- Population still increasing and they are not building land anymore.
- US house prices are the lowest in the world ( Ok not the lowest but compared to income vs affordability US cities like Atlanta and Dallas may be in the top 1%)

Why they will not go up
- Unemployment still high
- Investors may cash out bringing recently sold properties back to the market.
- As houses come out from underwater those homeowners will now be able to sell those home
- Shadow inventory still high at some places.
- Baby boomers ready to retire
- Renting culture is in vogue. These folks usually rent apartments and not houses.
- Europe still looking dicey

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  1. iwog


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    78   7:26am Sun 31 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Protected  

    thomaswong.1986 says

    It is the "Republican free market insanity" as Iwog calls it that created California being in the Global top GDP... 2nd to Texas... heck 50 years ago we were exactly like Texas.

    You mean 50 years ago when the top tax rate was 80%? When banks had severe restrictions on interstate commerce? When we had the fairness doctrine in media and corporations could only own a single station or newspaper in any market? When anyone who charged interest over 10% was put in jail?

    I find that Republicans are extremely ignorant when it comes to economics, but perhaps this comes from a near total ignorance of history. Seems likely.

  2. upisdown


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    79   9:28am Sun 31 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Philistine says

    Did you read the rest of his post where he said this already?

    You mean like these quotes from the exact same post?????

    The Professor says

    The argument that investers buy homes that nobody loves and then fixes them up
    so that renters will have a place to live is getting old too.

    And,,,,,

    The Professor says

    I blame investers and their ilk who are trying to make a fortune without
    producing anything real. I also blame the system that makes it profitable to be
    a rentier. There are way too many people not producing anything but making
    fortunes manipulating markets.

    Was that the points that were covered?

    Philistine says

    I would have had no problem buying a $300k gut-and-rehab 3 years ago, and living
    the nightmare that is Remodeling a House and Corralling the Contractors (see:
    'The Money Pit').

    Well, here in the Midwest there's a few less zeros on that amount. And, us useless "rentier" investors have taken properties that were previously priced too high to renovate, and now due to low prices it allows some long overdue upgrades and changes. About 75% of the properties that we've bought over the last 5 years didn't even have insulation in the exterior walls. Plaster along with Celotex, and under-built roofs(1X6 ridgepole), galv pipes and even some tube wiring. The inflated market kept properties like that artificially high, which was mainly for tax reasons, and now that they're out on the open market they can be bought and updated because the price is in line with reality and makes it possible.

    Yea, us useless "rentier" investors have bought and imporoved properties to where they are far better than when the properties were new, and now the rental income is justified(no rent subsidies or section 8 which was the norm prior), along with the higher(and realistic)assessment. The local public school that is in high demand has no problems due to us "rentier" investors concentrating within the parameters of that school district, compared to budget problems before.

  3. The Professor


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    80   9:44am Sun 31 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    upisdown says

    us useless "rentier" investors have taken properties that were previously priced too high to renovate,

    ...
    The inflated market kept properties like that artificially high,

    ...
    and now the rental income is justified

    Who inflated the market?

    My argument was that the rentier blew up the market to unaffordable levels in an effort to profit. Now they want to get more rent than they "invested". The average person wants to own a home. The investers have made this unfeasable.

    If you want to justify gouging the renter for "double the PITI" because you have "bought and imporoved properties to where they are far better than when the properties were new", I don't buy it.

  4. The Professor


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    81   9:47am Sun 31 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    upisdown says

    The local public school that is in high demand has no problems due to us "rentier" investors concentrating within the parameters of that school district, compared to budget problems before.

    But if the school district says you're cool, who am I to argue? Do you volunteer at the homeless shelter and rescue orphaned squirrels too?

  5. upisdown


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    82   10:08am Sun 31 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    The Professor says

    Who inflated the market?


    My argument was that the rentier blew up the market to unaffordable levels in
    an effort to profit. Now they want to get more rent than they "invested". The
    average person wants to own a home. The investers have made this unfeasable.


    If you want to justify gouging the renter for "double the PITI" because you
    have "bought and imporoved properties to where they are far better than when the
    properties were new", I don't buy it.

    Investors weren't even in the market here then. Irrational buyers and the "exuberance" that went along with it, coupled with banks and their BS lending convinced people to buy, refinance, or whatever because prices that went up in a very short time, would somehow continue. In less than 4 years, a couple bought a small(2br, 1 bath)bungalow having cashed out a couple of times, then tried to sell for $102,00, only to walk away and we picked it up for $31,000.

    How do you somehow know "what the average person" wants? And, just how have investors not made that possible, or that they(investors) may even encourage/enable that the "average person" to buy a house, whereas they couldn't through a conventional loan/bank?

  6. upisdown


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    83   10:11am Sun 31 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    The Professor says

    If you want to justify gouging the renter for "double the PITI" because you have
    "bought and imporoved properties to where they are far better than when the
    properties were new",

    The Professor says

    I don't buy it.

    I don't care. Jealous?

  7. upisdown


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    84   10:40am Sun 31 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    You know, you could just grow up and quit bitching... the market is what it
    is...

    His position in life is his fault, not someone else's.

  8. Bubbabear


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    85   10:49am Sun 31 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    curious2 says

    Watch Consuelo Mack interviewing Robert Shiller. In such uncertain times, the most informed and thoughtful people can sound the least certain.

    Thanks C2 , that was very thoughtful of you to post a comment of uncertainty and impending reversion

  9. The Professor


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    86   6:01pm Sun 31 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected  

    Patnet posts have given me insight into how "investors" think. They imagine themselves the genius who swoops down on a great deal, sweats equity into it, flips or rents, and makes a fortune, or at least enough money to eventually retire to a nice little tropical beach.

    The real owners would not waste their time bragging about their economic prowess on the Internet.

    upisdown says

    Irrational buyers and the "exuberance" that went along with it, coupled with banks and their BS lending convinced people to buy, refinance, or whatever because prices that went up in a very short time, would somehow continue.

    yep

  10. thomaswong.1986


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    87   6:51pm Sun 31 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)  

    iwog says

    I find that Republicans are extremely ignorant when it comes to economics, but perhaps this comes from a near total ignorance of history..

    only ignorance from you, our high interest rates and tax rates, were paying to rebuild
    the world economies and keep inflation in check . after they were all destroyed during WWII.... ring a fucking bell ?

    the constriction over business came from FDR idiotic policies...

    and as for FDR and SEC act of 33/34 ... what good did it do to prevent the public from
    speculating into the stock market, ignoring all past best practices and acting with
    'irrational exuberance' on future profitability. Clearly, the New Deal failed in the new century as it has failed today.

  11. thomaswong.1986


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    88   6:58pm Sun 31 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)  

    robertoaribas says

    housing prices have momentum, once they start going, they tend to keep going. they could for a year or even more

    as Shiller has stated well.. much of the country has corrected except for LA and SFBA.

    the term Permabear doesnt apply here. The correction back to the mean has validated Shillers statements he made since 2005.. its only time for LA and SFBA to make there final correction, after all.. we started our bubble back in 1998, for all the wrong reasons. The hype is thick in SFBA !

  12. Tim Aurora


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    89   7:09pm Sun 31 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  
  13. yup1


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    90   7:31pm Sun 31 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    housing prices have momentum, once they start going, they tend to keep going.
    they could for a year or even more

    I am in the Sacramento area and home prices have been going up for 6 months or so. Yesterday, for the first time in 6 months, Zillow shows my home value decreasing. Not good when the spring buying season is just beginning. I am also noticing more price drops than price increases, this despite having a low inventory compared to the last several years. It will be interesting to see just where prices end up this summer. Only time will tell.................

  14. thomaswong.1986


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    91   7:36pm Sun 31 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    yup1 says

    Yesterday, for the first time in 6 months, Zillow shows my home value decreasing. Not good when the spring buying season is just beginning. I

    you want the moon and sky and the buyer can only give you sand...
    whats the point of selling a home when too expensive for buyers.

  15. yup1


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    92   7:47pm Sun 31 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    thomaswong.1986 says

    you want the moon and sky and the buyer can only give you sand...
    whats
    the point of selling a home when too expensive for buyers.

    No I was just commenting on the market price and I was suprised to see a drop with all the hopium out there of ever rising prices again.

  16. thomaswong.1986


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    93   7:50pm Sun 31 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    yup1 says

    No I was just commenting on the market price and I was suprised to see a drop with all the hopium out there of ever rising prices again.

    well that may well be the volatility Robert Shiller was talking about some time ago. we may see equal drops and once again equal increases equal drops repeating .. all going side ways.. somewhere sanity has to kick in hopefully.

  17. yup1


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    94   7:55pm Sun 31 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

    thomaswong.1986 says

    well that may well be the volatility Robert Shiller was talking about some
    time ago. we may see equal drops and once again equal increases equal drops
    repeating .. all going side ways.. somewhere sanity has to kick in
    hopefully.

    Sanity would be good. Unfortunately in markets where investors have been the "market", if the price heads south I believe it has the potential to get really ugly again. Investors are fucking vultures and would love to pick through the dead bodies. Wouldn't it be sad for Roberto if Phoenix re-crashed boofuckinghoo!

  18. yup1


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    95   8:09pm Sun 31 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    patnet reminds me that loser a-holes, when proven wrong, will take a personal
    attack as their last pathetic line on those who did well...

    All you do is personal attacks!

  19. yup1


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    96   8:20pm Sun 31 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    not really, I'd pick up some more bargains...

    You are all in so what are you going to use to pick up bargains? Oh you will magically liquidate that easy to move housing if the market slumps. You are small two bit player in a much larger market with much bigger players who might just eat you as a small snack. You caught a falling knife /golfclap. You are now holding the knife, if it falls again you are fucked. You are leveraged to 1 million bucks, no LLC nothing. Good luck surviving a fall should it happen. Hell you are fucked if the student loan bubble bursts I am sure most of your rentals are to students living off uncle sam handing their borrowed federal dollars to you as rent.

  20. yup1


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    97   9:03pm Sun 31 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Roberto non of that changes the fact that if the Phoenix market starts to turn and burn you are fucked.

  21. yup1


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    98   9:13pm Sun 31 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    hmmm, so, my home at 1405 E atlanta, 85042, bought for $46K, seems to be
    worth about $120K now, and climbing... inventory around it is dropping to zero,
    foreclosures ending... maybe I'll sell it when it get to $140K, suck on
    that!

    If you really believe all that why are you not still buying up inventory?

  22. The Professor


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    99   9:20pm Sun 31 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike   Protected  

    robertoaribas says

    patnet reminds me that loser a-holes, when proven wrong, will take a personal attack as their last pathetic line on those who did well...

    yep

  23. yup1


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    100   9:52pm Sun 31 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    how so? i'm collecting well over twice in rent compared to my expenses...

    How come that number keeps going up? A couple weeks ago you said you had 6K/month in passive income, now 15k in income and it is well over twice the rent to expenses. So over twice would be at minimum 7.5k in passive income. We all know how much you like to brag, why didn't you brag about 7.5k in passive income it is far more impressive? Oh the tales we weave.........

  24. yup1


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    101   10:31pm Sun 31 Mar 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    You can't even keep up on your own shit that you post. Earlier today you said you collect $14,500 in rent. You must have rented out one of your slums for that extra $500 just this afternoon.

    You also said "Also, I have six mortgages, and 15 properties... so 9 are debt free."

    But you said this too "Even with 30% down, tremendous cash flow, 8 paid off properties, and a salary of $100K, plus ulta high credit scores, I got denied multiple times."

    So is it 8 or 9?

    But you also said "single family homes:

    60K rented 825, worth 100K today
    76k rented 950, worth 120K today
    80K rented 1100, worth 140K today
    85k rented 1150, worth 150K today
    142K rented 1500 worth 225K today
    140k rented 1500 worth 150k today
    47k rented 950 worth 120k today
    87K rented 1100 worth 150k today

    condos
    26K rented 825 worth 70K today
    31.5K rented 775 worth 70K today
    42K rented 875 worth 100k today
    42K rented 775 worth 80K today.

    Home that I know live in 230K worth 330K today, would rent for $1900+"

    That equals 13? I mean your bragging aren't you, you would think you would not fuck up your bragging and deflate the numbers......

    Fuck Roberto that is 1.1 million in purchased property you have said you have 1 million in loans what gives? Also that appears to be 12,325 in income not 14,500 and not 15,000. Unless of course you are counting the 1900 in rent that you dont get on your house?

    And that is all from March 26 to NOW. 5 fucking days and you have posted that you own 8 and 9 with no mortgage and 13 and 15 properties, rental income of 12,325, 14500, and 15000?

    For being a math professor, err Juco math tutor, your math sure sucks, or your story sure doesn't add up, which is it?

  25. thomaswong.1986


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    102   12:30am Mon 1 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)  

    yup1 says

    Sanity would be good. Unfortunately in markets where investors have been the "market", if the price heads south I believe it has the potential to get really ugly again. Investors are fucking vultures and would love to pick through the dead bodies. Wouldn't it be sad for Roberto if Phoenix re-crashed boofuckinghoo!

    lower housing costs for Silicon Valley would attract jobs/employment. which we have
    seen as Phoenix Az, and Omaha Nebraska will benefit from SV jobs. so price crash
    does benefit lower cost areas. Once gone, difficult as hell getting it back.

  26. The Professor


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    103   9:20am Mon 1 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected  

    robertoaribas says

    do your own math; additionally, I STILL get: spring break, 1 month at christmas, and nearly 2 months off in the summer. Enjoy your job at the power company, skippy.

    But are you happy?

  27. David9


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    104   9:48am Mon 1 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    For whoever wants to know, from this mornings listings of articles from here, I got this quote from a Mortgage Banker in San Francisco who describes a house via the article as an undiversified bond investment.

    "My humble advice to prospective homeowners is to buy a house you will not need to sell. Buy and hold your Bond (I mean home) to maturity. Locking in once and a lifetime interest rate will have the most benefits if you’re not forced to sell your house to future buyers that may face interest rates twice as high as today."

    What is this telling me?

    1.) I see why Realtors are inclined to lie.
    2.) This person implies prices could fluctuate with an interest rate increase.
    3.) True, not much is likely to change tomorrow.
    4.) I'm to just suck it up and be happy with my low interest rate and shut up.

    Also, the personal factors that weigh on my viewpoints are:

    1.) I did make out favorably from Housing Bubble 1.0, but that was after being upside down for 10 years.
    2.) If I search for Real Estate in other parts of the Country, many times I instantly find properties at a price, location, and features I would be inclined to purchase.
    3.) My current employment limits my geographical range of properties to purchase in California.

  28. Tim Aurora


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    105   10:29am Mon 1 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    thomaswong.1986 says

    lower housing costs for Silicon Valley would attract jobs/employment. which we have

    seen as Phoenix Az, and Omaha Nebraska will benefit from SV jobs. so price crash

    does benefit lower cost areas. Once gone, difficult as hell getting it back.

    I think you are barking at the wrong tree. As a percentage of incme US housing cost is probably the lowest in the world. If you are looking at any culprit look at health care cost and social security and medicare taxes. Those are going to be the future libilities.

  29. gsr


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    106   7:24pm Tue 2 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike   Protected  

    Tim Aurora says

    As a percentage of incme US housing cost is probably the lowest in the world

    Cannot include the west coast in general, and SFBA in particular.

  30. Tim Aurora


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    107   7:15am Wed 3 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    gsr says

    Cannot include the west coast in general, and SFBA in particular.

    If you compare SFBA with other high profile cities like Manhatten, downtown London, Mumbai, Tokyo, Paris, Shanghai, SFBA is still much cheaper.

    My point being that as compared to income Bay Area is still reasonable( now you can claim that the entire world real estate is unreasonable but that is an extreme point of view)

  31. David Losh


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    108   7:21am Wed 3 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)  

    Tim Aurora says

    If you compare SFBA with other high profile cities like Manhatten, downtown London, Mumbai, Tokyo, Paris, Shanghai, SFBA is still much cheaper.

    I agree, and think San Francisco is one of the best places on earth to live. You can't put a price on the quality of life San Francisco offers.

    In terms of price per square foot, the comparison to other cities is a very reasonable argument.

    For a lot of the country prices of housing are still high, continues to be high, and people would need to be high to think that the residential housing market is a good investment.

    It's just housing, just a place to put your crap while you are at work paying off debt.

  32. Tim Aurora


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    109   3:41am Mon 8 Jul 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    I see that the prices are holding on but I believe soon it wil taper, lets say after this summer which is another 2 months

  33. mmmarvel


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    110   5:02am Mon 8 Jul 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    David Losh says

    I agree, and think San Francisco is one of the best places on earth to live.
    You can't put a price on the quality of life San Francisco offers.

    While I can't exactly agree with you (sanity and limited money resources corral me). It seems there are far too many people who do agree with you. Hey, it's only money, right??? Y'all want to bid up the price to insane levels, have at it. I'll sit here and wait for the fall out, which always happens (to one degree or another).

  34. kmo722


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    111   6:24am Mon 8 Jul 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    >
    Tim Aurora says

    I see that the prices are holding on but I believe soon it wil taper, lets say after this summer which is another 2 months

    agreed.. late summer, fall or early winter it tops out then the slow taper begins as all that hot QE money starts to work out of residential RE.. the slope of that taper will be directly proportional to the Fed's actions and published planned actions relative to QE, which will also be reflected in bond prices.. then there are the upcoming Sept debt limit talks and sequestration cuts to add fuel to that taper with their impact on jobs and income .. sounds like a dandy time to purchase a home at practically their alltime high prices..

  35. Philistine


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    112   9:13am Mon 8 Jul 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    David Losh says

    In terms of price per square foot, the comparison to other cities is a very reasonable argument

    As we have globalized, cities like SF have become international (or near-international). Question is, however, is how does commuting 90 minutes daily from a tract house suburb factor in to the quality of life offered by a city like SF?

  36. Tim Aurora


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    113   9:59am Sat 14 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    I predict a quiet Winter. Price increase holds but barely as booth sellers and buyer go back to trenches. Come spring , we may see another spurt and house prices increase another 10% nationwide.

    Of course Fed is an X factor

  37. mbSFBay


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    114   10:12am Sat 14 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Tim Aurora says

    I predict a quiet Winter. Price increase holds but barely as booth sellers and buyer go back to trenches. Come spring , we may see another spurt and house prices increase another 10% nationwide.

    Of course Fed is an X factor

    It may not be quite quiet and sanguine. The Fed and free money has a lot to do with the surging prices. Incomes have not gone up - but prices are almost back to what was considered an unprecedented bubble. I think deflation and correction is probably more likely than another spurt.

    http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_24089191/bay-area-housing-market-cooling

  38. APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch


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    115   2:03pm Sat 14 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Tim Aurora says

    If you compare SFBA with other high profile cities like Manhatten, downtown London, Mumbai, Tokyo, Paris, Shanghai, SFBA is still much cheaper.

    That's right. Living in Stockton is exactly like being able to walk to the Victoria and Albert museum or pop on the Tube for a couple of stops for the Proms.

  39. dunnross


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    116   6:46pm Sat 14 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected  

    Tim Aurora says

    If you compare SFBA with other high profile cities like Manhatten, downtown London, Mumbai, Tokyo, Paris, Shanghai, SFBA is still much cheaper.

    Notice how he said "Downtown London". So he is now comparing SFBA to downtown London, not even Kensington or Chelsea. Hmm, let's see what we are talking about over here:

    Typical Spread in Downtown London:

    And a typical one in SFBA which is purportedly much cheaper:

  40. APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch


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    117   7:22pm Sat 14 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Living in a development Santa Clara is just like living in Kensington. Everyone knows that. Or next to Notre Dame in Paris. Everyone knows that.

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