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We're On The Cusp


By Bubbabear   Follow   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 5:34am PDT   820 views   18 comments
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http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/history-tells-us-that-a-gold-crash-an-oil-crash-guaranteed-recession

Is the United States about to experience another major economic downturn? Unfortunately, the pattern that is emerging right now is exactly the kind of pattern that you would expect to see just before a major stock market crash and a deep recession. History tells us that when the price of gold crashes, a recession almost always follows. History also tells us that when the price of oil crashes, a recession almost always follows. When both of those things happen, a significant economic downturn is virtually guaranteed. Just remember what happened back in 2008. Gold and oil both started falling rapidly...

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yup1   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 5:35am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 1

SELL, SELL, SELL!

thunderlips11   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 5:36am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 2

Really?

In the early 80s, the price of gold and oil collapsed - while the stock market boomed after going pretty much sideways from 1968 to 1981.

lostand confused   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 5:52am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 3

Gold and oil are still pretty high-just lower when compared to recent prices. Stocks are close to life time highs, as is housing with boom 2.

While fundamentals are not that good, lets see what the FED does.

CDon   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 6:22am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 4

Were on the cusp - hmmmm, sounds terrifying.

Out of curiosity, do you ever vet your sources before you decide who to listen to and or/ post their content here?

I ask because a conclusion that we are "on the cusp" of another major economic downturn, sounds an awful lot like when he told us we were on the verge of a "devastating economic collapse" a full 3.5 years ago

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/is-the-world-about-to-experience-a-devastating-economic-collapse

Bubbabear   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 6:32am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 5

CDon says

sounds terrifying.

We're accelerating on the cusp ...

Goldman Confirms Slowdown Accelerating
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-18/goldman-confirms-slowdown-accelerating

CDon   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 6:54am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 6

Bigbubbabear says

CDon says



sounds terrifying.


We're accelerating on the cusp ...


Goldman Confirms Slowdown Accelerating
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-18/goldman-confirms-slowdown-accelerating

I see.

So the Goldman per ZH "swirlogram" shows that we are now at -0.10%.

Yet, in March 2011, the swirlogram showed that we were then at -0.20%.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/step-aside-business-cycle-presenting-business-swirl

So -0.20% = the flat to slightly up economy we've had March 2011 - April 2013

Yet the -0.10% of today = the "cusp" of a "major economic downturn"?

David9   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 7:01am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike     Comment 7

Perhaps, unless more Trillions get printed by Mr. Bubbles or someone dreams up new bank laws to be passed.

Just my thinking, this has always seemed like predatory, marauding, and pillaging vulture capitalist investor activity before the carcass gets too old.

"Something is rotten in the state of Denmark"
Shakespeare

CDon   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 7:34am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 8

robertoaribas says

You'd think at some point, after say the 30th time you went to bed sure the world would blow up that night, and you woke up the next morning to another day, you'd change your strategy, but no. Go figure.

Agreed - and its not like everything is hunky dory now. Its just that you cannot stay in full-on-hysterics-screaming-with-your-hair-on-fire mode forever.

This tone was warranted, and quite useful in 2008. It was even more useful if it was used in 2007. Still, if you use it every day, day in and day out for 3.5 years, how is that useful?

Its the chicken little paradox. Lets say history proves that the next kaboom moment is Oct 2021. If he sees it coming in 2020, how can he effectively "warn" anyone when he has been at level 10 hysterics nearly every single day from 2009-2020?

HEY YOU   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 11:58am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 9

B-b-b, Do you know where some people can find info on something called the Great Depression? lol

Bubbabear   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 12:01pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 10

robertoaribas says

Go figure.

ZH update

Lol! McDonald's hikes burger prices by 20% in Japan. This is what happens when their central bank pushes too far. McDonald burgers are used by economists to measure inflation. McDonald's focuses on price and works to keep their burgers from getting expensive. So they fight inflation and also their menu is uniform globally. Yet even McDonald's can't beat the bank of Japan.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-18/mcdonalds-hikes-japanese-burger-prices-20

adarmiento   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 12:51pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 11

Bigbubbabear says

History tells us that when the price of gold crashes, a recession almost always follows. History also tells us that when the price of oil crashes, a recession almost always follows. When both of those things happen, a significant economic downturn is virtually guaranteed. Just remember what happened back in 2008.

True, history (i.e., Fall of 2008) may be repeating itself in Spring 2013. HOWEVER, valuation or the P/E ratio (trailing 12 months) for the S&P 500 is currently (http://www.multpl.com/table?f=m) a lot lower than it was in late 2008.

adarmiento   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 1:05pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 12

lostand confused says

Stocks are close to life time highs

But the valuation, measured by P/E ratio (http://www.m ultpl.com/table?f=m) seems to be still in fair value range. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price%E2%80%93earnings_ratio#Interpretation

So, there may be more room for the S&P 500 to rise before it peaks.

CDon   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 1:53pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 13

Bigbubbabear says

Lol! McDonald's hikes burger prices by 20% in Japan.

Thats nice...

So anyway, as I asked earler:

So the Goldman per ZH "swirlogram" shows that we are now at -0.10%.

Yet, in March 2011, the swirlogram showed that we were then at -0.20%.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/step-aside-business-cycle-presenting-business-swirl

So -0.20% = the flat to slightly up economy we've had March 2011 - April 2013

Yet the -0.10% of today = the "cusp" of a "major economic downturn"?

iwog   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 2:18pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 14

The slowdown is accelerating??? Who writes this stuff?

Check this out. It's from Nov. 1st, 1995:

http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=B7Q_AAAAIBAJ&sjid=z1YMAAAAIBAJ&pg=4013,144411&dq=leading+economic+indicators&hl=en

WASHINGTON (AP) - The government's main forecasting gauge of future economic activity fell 0.1 percent in September, its second decline in the last three months.

The Commerce Department said today its index of Leading Economic Indicators, which is about to be turned over to a private group, has advanced only two times this year.

The index's surprisingly weak performance seems to contradict other evidence that the economy is expanding.

Bubbabear   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 3:10pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 15

CDon says

Yet the -0.10% of today = the "cusp" of a "major economic downturn"?

It's Kinda like what happens when I flush my toilet.

CDon   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 11:02pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike     Comment 16

Flushing your toilet causes a major economic meltdown?

joshuatrio   Fri, 19 Apr 2013, 12:54am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 17

Bigbubbabear says

CDon says

Yet the -0.10% of today = the "cusp" of a "major economic downturn"?

It's Kinda like what happens when I flush my toilet.

Nice. Dig it.

Goran_K   Fri, 19 Apr 2013, 1:14am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 18

When indicators are up, bulls will argue why they cannot go down, when indicators are down, bears will argue why they cannot go back up.

That toilet graph fits so well in this thread.

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