We're On The Cusp


By Bubbabear   Follow   Thu, 18 Apr 2013, 12:34pm   626 views   18 comments
In Yorba Linda CA 92886   Watch (0)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/history-tells-us-that-a-gold-crash-an-oil-crash-guaranteed-recession

Is the United States about to experience another major economic downturn? Unfortunately, the pattern that is emerging right now is exactly the kind of pattern that you would expect to see just before a major stock market crash and a deep recession. History tells us that when the price of gold crashes, a recession almost always follows. History also tells us that when the price of oil crashes, a recession almost always follows. When both of those things happen, a significant economic downturn is virtually guaranteed. Just remember what happened back in 2008. Gold and oil both started falling rapidly...

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  1. yup1


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    1   12:35pm Thu 18 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    SELL, SELL, SELL!

  2. thunderlips11


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    2   12:36pm Thu 18 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected  

    Really?

    In the early 80s, the price of gold and oil collapsed - while the stock market boomed after going pretty much sideways from 1968 to 1981.

  3. lostand confused


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    3   12:52pm Thu 18 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Gold and oil are still pretty high-just lower when compared to recent prices. Stocks are close to life time highs, as is housing with boom 2.

    While fundamentals are not that good, lets see what the FED does.

  4. CDon


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    4   1:22pm Thu 18 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Were on the cusp - hmmmm, sounds terrifying.

    Out of curiosity, do you ever vet your sources before you decide who to listen to and or/ post their content here?

    I ask because a conclusion that we are "on the cusp" of another major economic downturn, sounds an awful lot like when he told us we were on the verge of a "devastating economic collapse" a full 3.5 years ago

    http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/is-the-world-about-to-experience-a-devastating-economic-collapse

  5. Bubbabear


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    5   1:32pm Thu 18 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    CDon says

    sounds terrifying.

    We're accelerating on the cusp ...

    Goldman Confirms Slowdown Accelerating
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-18/goldman-confirms-slowdown-accelerating

  6. CDon


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    6   1:54pm Thu 18 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Bigbubbabear says

    CDon says



    sounds terrifying.


    We're accelerating on the cusp ...


    Goldman Confirms Slowdown Accelerating
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-18/goldman-confirms-slowdown-accelerating

    I see.

    So the Goldman per ZH "swirlogram" shows that we are now at -0.10%.

    Yet, in March 2011, the swirlogram showed that we were then at -0.20%.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/step-aside-business-cycle-presenting-business-swirl

    So -0.20% = the flat to slightly up economy we've had March 2011 - April 2013

    Yet the -0.10% of today = the "cusp" of a "major economic downturn"?

  7. David9


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    7   2:01pm Thu 18 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike  

    Perhaps, unless more Trillions get printed by Mr. Bubbles or someone dreams up new bank laws to be passed.

    Just my thinking, this has always seemed like predatory, marauding, and pillaging vulture capitalist investor activity before the carcass gets too old.

    "Something is rotten in the state of Denmark"
    Shakespeare

  8. CDon


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    8   2:34pm Thu 18 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    You'd think at some point, after say the 30th time you went to bed sure the world would blow up that night, and you woke up the next morning to another day, you'd change your strategy, but no. Go figure.

    Agreed - and its not like everything is hunky dory now. Its just that you cannot stay in full-on-hysterics-screaming-with-your-hair-on-fire mode forever.

    This tone was warranted, and quite useful in 2008. It was even more useful if it was used in 2007. Still, if you use it every day, day in and day out for 3.5 years, how is that useful?

    Its the chicken little paradox. Lets say history proves that the next kaboom moment is Oct 2021. If he sees it coming in 2020, how can he effectively "warn" anyone when he has been at level 10 hysterics nearly every single day from 2009-2020?

  9. HEY YOU


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    9   6:58pm Thu 18 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    B-b-b, Do you know where some people can find info on something called the Great Depression? lol

  10. Bubbabear


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    10   7:01pm Thu 18 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    robertoaribas says

    Go figure.

    ZH update

    Lol! McDonald's hikes burger prices by 20% in Japan. This is what happens when their central bank pushes too far. McDonald burgers are used by economists to measure inflation. McDonald's focuses on price and works to keep their burgers from getting expensive. So they fight inflation and also their menu is uniform globally. Yet even McDonald's can't beat the bank of Japan.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-18/mcdonalds-hikes-japanese-burger-prices-20

  11. adarmiento


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    11   7:51pm Thu 18 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Bigbubbabear says

    History tells us that when the price of gold crashes, a recession almost always follows. History also tells us that when the price of oil crashes, a recession almost always follows. When both of those things happen, a significant economic downturn is virtually guaranteed. Just remember what happened back in 2008.

    True, history (i.e., Fall of 2008) may be repeating itself in Spring 2013. HOWEVER, valuation or the P/E ratio (trailing 12 months) for the S&P 500 is currently (http://www.multpl.com/table?f=m) a lot lower than it was in late 2008.

  12. adarmiento


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    12   8:05pm Thu 18 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    lostand confused says

    Stocks are close to life time highs

    But the valuation, measured by P/E ratio (http://www.m ultpl.com/table?f=m) seems to be still in fair value range. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price%E2%80%93earnings_ratio#Interpretation

    So, there may be more room for the S&P 500 to rise before it peaks.

  13. CDon


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    13   8:53pm Thu 18 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Bigbubbabear says

    Lol! McDonald's hikes burger prices by 20% in Japan.

    Thats nice...

    So anyway, as I asked earler:

    So the Goldman per ZH "swirlogram" shows that we are now at -0.10%.

    Yet, in March 2011, the swirlogram showed that we were then at -0.20%.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/step-aside-business-cycle-presenting-business-swirl

    So -0.20% = the flat to slightly up economy we've had March 2011 - April 2013

    Yet the -0.10% of today = the "cusp" of a "major economic downturn"?

  14. iwog


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    14   9:18pm Thu 18 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    The slowdown is accelerating??? Who writes this stuff?

    Check this out. It's from Nov. 1st, 1995:

    http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=B7Q_AAAAIBAJ&sjid=z1YMAAAAIBAJ&pg=4013,144411&dq=leading+economic+indicators&hl=en

    WASHINGTON (AP) - The government's main forecasting gauge of future economic activity fell 0.1 percent in September, its second decline in the last three months.

    The Commerce Department said today its index of Leading Economic Indicators, which is about to be turned over to a private group, has advanced only two times this year.

    The index's surprisingly weak performance seems to contradict other evidence that the economy is expanding.

  15. Bubbabear


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    15   10:10pm Thu 18 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

    CDon says

    Yet the -0.10% of today = the "cusp" of a "major economic downturn"?

    It's Kinda like what happens when I flush my toilet.

  16. CDon


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    16   6:02am Fri 19 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike  

    Flushing your toilet causes a major economic meltdown?

  17. joshuatrio


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    17   7:54am Fri 19 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Bigbubbabear says

    CDon says

    Yet the -0.10% of today = the "cusp" of a "major economic downturn"?

    It's Kinda like what happens when I flush my toilet.

    Nice. Dig it.

  18. Goran_K


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    18   8:14am Fri 19 Apr 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    When indicators are up, bulls will argue why they cannot go down, when indicators are down, bears will argue why they cannot go back up.

    That toilet graph fits so well in this thread.

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