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The Coming Real Estate Supply/Demand Inventory Reversal


By smaulgld   Follow   Sat, 22 Jun 2013, 1:02am PDT   6,744 views   109 comments   Watch (0)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike (1)  

This was written last week. Looks like demand may drop soon with rising interest rates due to the threat of the Fed's tapering.

Or we may get a final rush to buy before rates go higher(and lots of inventory coming on line to sell before the drop in prices)

Take a look and provide comments

http://smaulgld.com/the-coming-supplydemand-real-estate-inventory-reversal/

« First     « Previous     Comments 70-109 of 109     Last »

iwog   befriend   ignore   Sat, 24 Aug 2013, 10:27am PDT   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 70

David Losh says

Last, but not least, is just because some idiot pays too much for a property doesn't make that a reality.

I just posted an extremely compelling argument (complete with data) to indicate that American real estate isn't "too high". You may not agree with my standards, however what standards are you measuring it by?

David Losh says

I'm saying we have plenty of housing.

Based on what?

bob2356   befriend   ignore   Sat, 24 Aug 2013, 10:49am PDT   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike (2)     Comment 71

iwog says

This is year #2 of a new bull market.

What new bull market is that? By your own chart you keep posting US real estate is barely beating inflation since the crash. Only CA and some of the cities that crashed to 1980's prices and are still struggling to get back to pre bubble prices are moving up.

iwog says

Obviously American wages CAN support these prices because people are doing it all over the world INCLUDING in places were gasoline is $8 a gallon and fresh fruit needs to be imported from Africa.

You have spent how much time living abroad to understand how other economies work? Oh that's right you spent a week in Ireland and are now an expert. I live in one of these countries and the economics aren't even close to what you pretend they are. I can and do carry a 500k house here easier than a 150k house in the states on the same income.

How is that? Let's see, I pay zero for medical insurance for a family of 4 as opposed to 2000+ a month in the states. That's a 200k+ mortgage payment right there. I am putting nothing away for each child's college education since it's only a couple k year. I pay $1900 property taxes on a 500k house. I pay $2900 each on my 120-130k properties in TX. My mother pays 4k on 160k in NJ and my mother in law pays 18k on 440k in NJ. No state income tax here. Gas is over $8.00 a gallon but it's totally irrelevant., Everyone lives in towns, suburban sprawl doesn't exist. A 5 mile commute is considered huge. My kids walk to school and I grocery shop on a bike. If I drive 100 miles a week it's a really big week. I've put 5-6k a year on the car tops. That's common here and very common in most of Europe. I don't have a clue what importing fruit has to do with anything. Fruit is exported and imported all over the world every day including large quantities imported into the US.

Each country has it's own economics. Some like Germany people prefer apartments so house prices don't reflect what people pay to live. Others like Portugal and to a lessor degree France have almost no population growth so lots of houses get passed down generation to generation. Then there are countries like Italy, Argentina, and Greece the income numbers are meaningless since half the economy is underground. Some like Oz and parts of Canada are in a commodities driven bubble. Easy to tell since people there are playing all the usual bubble real estate financing games. These will be coming down. Not crash, since crashes don't happen where you can't lose the debt no matter what.

So your chart is pretty much worthless since each country has totally different real estate markets, economic systems, and living conditions.

David Losh   befriend   ignore   Sat, 24 Aug 2013, 11:14am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 72

http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/new-home-sales-tumble-raising-recovery-worries-6C10984422

These are the stats putting the number of new construction at 900K units, and sales at 400K units.

There just isn't the demand for the housing units, and apartment construction is the highest since 1986.

Come on, get on board. Housing units are different than stocks, but are subject to intense speculation in assets.

iwog   befriend   ignore   Sat, 24 Aug 2013, 11:32am PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 73

bob2356 says

So your chart is pretty much worthless since each country has totally different real estate markets, economic systems, and living conditions.

Nice work. Let me paraphrase:

"All countries are different so comparing them is useless. I replace what you posted with absolutely nothing"

How come you posted a laundry list of social benefits without talking about the tax burden?

bob2356 says

Oh that's right you spent a week in Ireland and are now an expert.

I didn't become an expert on California real estate because I live here. I became an expert on California real estate because I read everything I could get my hands on.

This is the second time in recent memory where some moron attempted the "I live here so I must know more than you". This is every bit as fucking stupid as an astronaut claiming to know more about cosmology than Stephen Hawking because Hawking is stuck on earth in a wheelchair.

Grow up.

Ironman   befriend   ignore   Sat, 24 Aug 2013, 2:25pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (2)     Comment 74

iwog says

Really? Like what? How do sales numbers impact anything whatsoever in your life right now or any other time?

Here Ducky..... Since you have a hard time understand words, I'll give it to you in a picture...

*

So I'll repeat what I said previously:
Call it Crazy says

Total sales gives a better read on the whole housing recovery, it's direction and what it adds to the economy. Prices don't give any benchmark, unless you peg them against how many sold... Get it??

So see if you can answer it again...

So, now you can use the above graph as a cheat sheet:

Quiz: Which is better for the economy and housing recovery, selling 10 houses that appreciated 12% in the year or selling 50 houses that appreciated 2% in the year?

bob2356   befriend   ignore   Sat, 24 Aug 2013, 2:56pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 75

iwog says

Nice work. Let me paraphrase:

"All countries are different so comparing them is useless. I replace what you posted with absolutely nothing"

How come you posted a laundry list of social benefits without talking about the tax burden?

Yes I did replace it with nothing because without doing a comparison of all factors country by country it is useless to compare.Comparing Greece to Germany for example is just a joke. It's not possible. I know you love to throw up random charts and say that's it I'm right, but in real life things are much more complex.

I thought I did mention tax burden but I don't see it. Thanks to the only country on the planet requirement that US citizens pay taxes while non resident I get to compare exactly what the Federal tax burdens are every year. I actually pay less in federal here but it's close overall. The tax rate is 5% lower in the US from 50,000 to 85,000 then 3% lower from 85,000 to 185,000. BUT, big but there is no FICA so there is a 7.3% added in the US on every dollar of earnings up to 103,000. It's much easier to give social benefits if you don't piss away over 1 trillion dollars a year in military spending.

iwog says

I didn't become an expert on California real estate because I live here. I became an expert on California real estate because I read everything I could get my hands on.

This is the second time in recent memory where some moron attempted the "I live here so I must know more than you". This is every bit as fucking stupid as an astronaut claiming to know more about cosmology than Stephen Hawking because Hawking is stuck on earth in a wheelchair.

Grow up.


Ha, Ha, Ha. Straw man anyone, the IWOG specialty of the house? Astronauts wouldn't know more about cosmology nor would they claim they did. They do know a hell of a lot more about the mechanics of space travel than Hawking, something I'm pretty confident Hawking would gracefully concede. I'm sure you could become an expert on flying by reading books but I have serious doubts about your ability to land a 747 based on that knowledge. Theory and practice are two very different things.

If you are claiming you could have made and managed your investments in the Bay Area without having ever lived anywhere close then you are just a liar. You may have made investments from afar, but they wouldn't have been the ones you made by being on the ground. That's just being in another state. Being in another country is an exponential increase in complexity. I've lived long term in three other countries and it takes a minimum of a year, if you're lucky, to know the system well enough begin to consider housing.

David Losh   befriend   ignore   Sat, 24 Aug 2013, 3:24pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 76

egads101 says

Buying a house in 2006... you thought the price would go up, but it went down.

You did not pay the bank...

I see you sayin in 2010 that prices would go down more.

You were wrong again.

The house we bought in 2006 we made a $64K profit on by selling it.

What you mean is we refinanced our personal residence for $570K which we bought in 2003 for $300K.

Bank of America bought our $70K HELOC from Countrywide, but didn't have a clear title, they are still trying to sort that out.

We always have the option to walk away from any property, but we've decided to keep this mill stone, because it is now worth more than the total owed.

In 2010 no one saw the 1% mortgage rate drop in 2011. The Real Estate market should have been allowed to correct, but it didn't.

So pretty much you are wrong about everything, the way most Real Estate amateurs are.

I'll stick with my strategy, because so far I'm making more in my market place.

egads101 says

That is the housing word.

The word is prices will drop like a rock. I have a different point of view given how much has been invested in Real Estate. Prices will deflate, the same as wages are deflating now.

Bring data next time.

David Losh   befriend   ignore   Sat, 24 Aug 2013, 3:37pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 77

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/26376-multifamily-construction-pushes-housing-starts

More about apartment building:

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/home-front/2013/02/13/multifamily-housing-growth-poised-to-continue-in-2013

Housing units are a mix. One chart shows residential new construction dropping, but apartments are catching up to where they were before the Real Estate bubble.

I should write a post about that, but no one wants to hear about Real Estate.

David Losh   befriend   ignore   Sat, 24 Aug 2013, 3:40pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 78

egads101 says

The oracle is sad for you.

I do feel sad for all the people in the past three years who over paid. I'm not one of them, because I have enough money tied up in properties that are losing value.

The bears have been right all along.

Next time, bring data.

David Losh   befriend   ignore   Sat, 24 Aug 2013, 3:41pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 79

egads101 says

you should meditate on your error for at least one hour a day.

You're a nut job.

Next time bring data.

Also, the way the market is turning, right now, as we type, many people who listened are grateful they waited until the Fed stops fooling around.

David Losh   befriend   ignore   Sat, 24 Aug 2013, 3:54pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 80

egads101 says

data? such as that released this week that home prices are up 14% in the past year?

Price spikes are irrelevant.

Let's see, I buy a house at these outrageous prices, pay to get a mortgage, then pay the selling costs to get out of the mess, plus what ever I have to put in to make the place pretty.

Where's the profit?

Price spikes don't mean anything until you collect.

I just showed you we made $330K in 2006, 2007 in my spare time. How much did you make?

Next time bring data, and try to make some sense out of it.

David Losh   befriend   ignore   Sat, 24 Aug 2013, 3:56pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 81

Yeah, we're done. You've got nothing here but a Case/Shiller, Zillow, and Trulia price bump for 20 metro areas.

You should get out of the house more.

How are things doing in Wyoming?

iwog   befriend   ignore   Sat, 24 Aug 2013, 4:22pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 82

David Losh says

The bears have been right all along.

You're being dishonest. A bull market approaching 2 years is not a price spike nor is it a bear market rally.

What are you going to say next year when prices keep going up?

Bigsby   befriend   ignore   Sat, 24 Aug 2013, 8:10pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 83

David Losh says

egads101 says

data? such as that released this week that home prices are up 14% in the past year?

Price spikes are irrelevant.

Let's see, I buy a house at these outrageous prices, pay to get a mortgage, then pay the selling costs to get out of the mess, plus what ever I have to put in to make the place pretty.

Where's the profit?

Price spikes don't mean anything until you collect.

I just showed you we made $330K in 2006, 2007 in my spare time. How much did you make?

Next time bring data, and try to make some sense out of it.

How did you make $330k in 2006/2007 when you've spent a good amount of time talking about being underwater, having tax liens against you etc..?

And I don't follow how your property/ies have been losing value if they've been going up in price.

David Losh   befriend   ignore   Sun, 25 Aug 2013, 1:03am PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 84

iwog says

What are you going to say next year when prices keep going up?

I'll continue to say the same thing, that this is speculation in assets.

The bigger problem is you are competing with hedge fund money which is as fickle as the Fed.

Bigsby says

How did you make $330k in 2006/2007 when you've spent a good amount of time talking about being underwater, having tax liens against you etc..?

Talk to your very good buddy Bob about how he cyber stalked me to refute what I'm saying about the price of Real Estate.

I do follow the market and know that our Wyoming property is losing money by the minute.

The 14% gains are according to the Case/Shiller Index. Real Estate has been hyped by the government as proof of our economic recovery. The Case Shiller Index is targeted to 20 Metropolitan areas.

It's a load of propaganda.

Even if it weren't a bunch of BS where would my profit be if I had more money tied up in Real Estate?

My buddies in the business are just now starting to see daylight, but my returns from the service business are much higher than theirs.

CDon   befriend   ignore   Sun, 25 Aug 2013, 1:33am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 85

Call it Crazy says

Quiz: Which is better for the economy and housing recovery, selling 10 houses
that appreciated 12% in the year or selling 50 houses that appreciated 2% in the
year?

I can answer that. And let me say, point to you, yes the volume of transactions is a very clear indication of a struggling economy - going up nonetheless - but struggling to do so.

So now that we have put that into the "asked and answered" column, lets move on to what most (not all but most) ordinary buyers care about --- prices.

So let me ask you In nominal terms, have prices bottomed? Yes or No??

I put this to you as a test of your candor and intellectual honesty. You can continue to maintain that prices will continue to struggle to move upward, and point out what a terrible investment homes can be, but again its a yes or no question -

In nominal terms, have prices bottomed? Yes or No??

The Professor   befriend   ignore   Sun, 25 Aug 2013, 1:37am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 86

egads101 says

In old times, david would just be the village idiot

Is that you Roberto?

David Losh   befriend   ignore   Sun, 25 Aug 2013, 2:35am PDT   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 87

The Professor says

Is that you Roberto?

I agree, but these are much more childish comments than Bob's.

David Losh   befriend   ignore   Sun, 25 Aug 2013, 2:37am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 88

egads101 says

David will always lose money.

I make money every day.

You must have missed the parts about the property in Wyoming. Maybe the great oracle can tell us how much prices have gone up in Wyoming.

David Losh   befriend   ignore   Sun, 25 Aug 2013, 2:45am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 89

egads101 says

you make money, then you quote a house in wyoming that is losing you money?

I want to sell the property, all of our property. I want my cash out of losing propositions so it can be invested in making more money.

Wait a minute, at least I have those options, what is it you've got? Let's get them out and measure, shall we?

hanera   befriend   ignore   Sun, 25 Aug 2013, 3:07am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 90

Call it Crazy says

Quiz: Which is better for the economy and housing recovery, selling 10 houses that appreciated 12% in the year or selling 50 houses that appreciated 2% in the year?

50 houses, 2% appreciation?

David Losh   befriend   ignore   Sun, 25 Aug 2013, 4:25am PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 91

egads101 says

You are still trying here?

So, you've got nothing.

I want to sell my properties rather than buy more. Anyone buying property today is buying at the recognized top of the market. So, I want to sell at the top of the market or as close to a top of the market as we will ever get.

It's explained here every day.

iwog   befriend   ignore   Sun, 25 Aug 2013, 4:28am PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 92

David Losh says

Anyone buying property today is buying at the recognized top of the market.

Recognized by who?

This is a fascinating comment. How can you be in such denial?

hanera   befriend   ignore   Sun, 25 Aug 2013, 5:06am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 93

David Losh says

Anyone buying property today is buying at the recognized top of the market.

Reversal is the most difficult to identify. Could you point out some evidences? The obvious ones are Fed's talk of tapering and rising mortgage rate. Asking prices are no longer outrageous and in fact, have declined in some places, but could be seasonal, inconclusive.

iwog - Historically rising prices are associated with rising rate because of increased demand for money. However, current rising rate is due to Fed's hint of tapering, not due to increased demand of money. Fed has been depressing the rate. It may not be a time to sell your investment property but the reward/risk is not favorable for buying.

Call it KKKrazy   befriend   ignore   Sun, 25 Aug 2013, 5:08am PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 94

David Losh says

at the recognized top of the market.

A little caution will serve you well at this point. It's one thing to describe an overbought condition, but it's much different to call the top and say "this point and no higher". YOU JUST DID THAT, and however fractionally incorrect you may be in the future you have to be perfect to have been right. Given the length of time you have been calling the current overbought condition "about to top out" you must be feeling especially lucky at this very moment.

iwog   befriend   ignore   Sun, 25 Aug 2013, 5:16am PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 95

David Losh says

So, you've got nothing.

The really cool thing about Pat.net is that even when the entire thread is deleted, old comments are still able to be recalled. (to our delight)

David Losh   befriend   ignore   Sun, 25 Aug 2013, 5:44am PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 96

iwog says

Recognized by who?

iwog says

The really cool thing about Pat.net is that even when the entire thread is deleted, old