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The 2013 housing market and my prediction for 2014


By iwog   Follow   Mon, 12 Aug 2013, 2:45pm   14,133 views   507 comments
In Lafayette CA 94549   Watch (0)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike (8)  

Prices are going way up from here.

This is going to be a well supported analysis of the current housing market conditions and the implications for the future. Please put equal thought and support into your rebuttals. Most of this concerns California and although I'm not familiar with the rest of the country, California is generally a leading indicator of all things economic.

Being heavily invested in real estate, there are three things of particular importance to me at the present time. All three lead to my prediction of significantly higher prices:

1. How is the spike in mortgage rates impacting the market?
2. How is the spike in home prices impacting supply?
3. How does past market action in late summer compare to prior years?

To answer these questions, I require the most real time data source available. Case-Shiller and most other indices lag the true market by months so they are mostly useless except as a good measure of where we've been. As many know, I'm a fan of Redfin charts so I will concentrate on Redfin market data. I've pulled up the most populous 20 California counties to find out what is going on.

1. How is the spike in mortgage rates impacting the market? Mortgage rates crossed into the 4% territory at the end of May. Since a typical closing takes 15-45 days, there has been ample time to determine if higher mortgage rates have put a damper on listing and sales. There is no such blip in the data. Both listings and closings are well within 2013 trends. Mortgage rates are not relevant.

2. How is the spike in home prices impacting supply? For this we have an entire 18 months of steady price appreciation across almost all California markets. The number of listings in some markets have slightly increased, but in most cases those increases were either less than seasonal norms or have since reversed. The spike in home prices is not pulling more supply into the market.

3. How does past market action in late summer compare to prior years? In my opinion, this is the most important predictor of what will happen in 2014. Does late summer market conditions match years prior to a bull market, years prior to a bear market, or years prior to a flat market? The answer is unequivocally that market action in July and early August of 2013 matches the years leading up to the biggest gaining years both during the bubble and 2012.

I'm going to be using San Diego as my reference since posting 20 different California counties would be redundant. Almost all charts for all areas match what his happening in the San Diego market.

We are going higher in 2014. Probably much higher. Most California counties look like San Diego. Not only are the price gains continuing but new inventory is NOT forthcoming. Here is Los Angeles county just to demonstrate how consistent this is:

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  1. David Losh


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    468   6:53am Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Bigsby says

    I thought you said you had no idea what those cases were.

    Why would I, and why would I care?

    The debt settlements are all the same, if that's what these lawsuits are for.

    Maybe Bob can tell us.

  2. Bigsby


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    469   7:13am Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    David Losh says

    Bigsby says

    I thought you said you had no idea what those cases were.

    Why would I, and why would I care?

    The debt settlements are all the same, if that's what these lawsuits are for.

    Maybe Bob can tell us.

    Why would you know what cases were brought against you? Why would you care? Really?

  3. The Professor


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    470   7:25am Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    egads101 says

    1. He was a victim of a cowardly criminal act, from some asshole on this board. A phoned in threat to his place of employment

    That really is dickishness.

  4. David Losh


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    471   8:00am Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    Bigsby says

    Why would you know what cases were brought against you? Why would you care? Really?

    Yes, really, why would I care?

    What's so hard to figure out?

    One of the great things about the United States, I've heard you're not from here, is the rule of bankruptcy.

    While many, many of my counter parts bankrupted LLCs we chose to pay our debts, even to the banksters.

    Everybody is getting paid, but in Bob's mind we maybe should have had those LLCs, bankrupted them, and moved on.

    So what's the problem here? We pay, and we're wrong, people who don't pay are smarter than me. Hmmm...

  5. SiO2


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    472   8:01am Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    thomaswong.1986 says

    kashif313 says

    If I buy a house in SoCal: $500,000 with 20% down, 30 year mortgage,

    why pay $500K if you can buy cheaper $250-300K and bank the savings.

    Why pay $250k if you could pay $100k? Maybe you can get the seller to give you money in addition to the house.

  6. Bigsby


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    473   8:07am Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)  

    David Losh says

    Bigsby says

    Why would you know what cases were brought against you? Why would you care? Really?

    Yes, really, why would I care?

    What's so hard to figure out?

    One of the great things about the United States, I've heard you're not from here, is the rule of bankruptcy.

    While many, many of my counter parts bankrupted LLCs we chose to pay our debts, even to the banksters.

    Everybody is getting paid, but in Bob's mind we maybe should have had those LLCs, bankrupted them, and moved on.

    So what's the problem here? We pay, and we're wrong, people who don't pay are smarter than me. Hmmm...

    There is no problem, but you did say you didn't know what Rob was talking about, which would appear not to be the case.

  7. kashif313


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    474   8:10am Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    >>>I think 5 years from now, a hell of a lot of people are going to have seen enough rent increase, that they are going to look back at the mortgages they could have locked in for life today, last year, the year before, and seriously wonder what the hell was wrong with their thinking, and why they ever listed to the permabear idiots on this site.

    This is not true. My rents have not changed over the last 4 years. What makes you believe that they will over the next 5 years? Also if my rent is 30% cheaper than a comparable mortgage, why would I buy? In fact, my rent was cheaper than a comparable mortgage even when the market crashed. I save more by renting - why is that a problem with anyone.

    If you choose to pursue a different strategy than me and make more money while doing so, good for you. My piece of mind lies in renting. I may buy when my price range is met based on my calculations. You may not agree with my criteria - that's fine. I dont agree with your analysis..you go your way I'll go mine...nothing wrong with that.

  8. David Losh


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    475   8:11am Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    Bigsby says

    There is no problem, but you did say you didn't know what Rob was talking about, which would appear not to be the case.

    I don't know what he's talking about, or if it's true.

    Why would I?

    Just answer the question, why would I know or care about law suits filed against me?

    Sorry, I've got to get back to work now, but this has certainly been entertaining.

  9. Bigsby


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    476   8:16am Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)  

    David Losh says

    Bigsby says

    There is no problem, but you did say you didn't know what Rob was talking about, which would appear not to be the case.

    I don't know what he's talking about, or if it's true.

    Why would I?

    Just answer the question, why would I know or care about law suits filed against me?

    Sorry, I've got to get back to work now, but this has certainly been entertaining.

    Why would you know or care about lawsuits filed against you? Errmm...

  10. Flux


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    477   10:53am Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    kashif313 says

    >>>I think 5 years from now, a hell of a lot of people are going to have seen enough rent increase, that they are going to look back at the mortgages they could have locked in for life today, last year, the year before, and seriously wonder what the hell was wrong with their thinking, and why they ever listed to the permabear idiots on this site.

    I think you are right. Rental nation is gonna get squeezed.

  11. David Losh


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    478   11:52am Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Bigsby says

    Why would you know or care about lawsuits filed against you? Errmm...

    That is the question, why would I know or care?

    I think what you are trying to say is that I should care, but you never offer any reasons for that.

    The banking system is so screwed up that I don't ever expect to take on more debt.

    I never had debt before, so I don't see using it in the future.

    The good times for credit are gone.

  12. David Losh


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    479   11:55am Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    egads101 says

    Everybody, say hello

    Nothing to say Bob? No deep insight into how screwed up the Real Estate market is?

    Did you read today's report of how banks are confident people will hold onto mortgages, because the new crop of home buyers have to actually Promise to Pay the loans.

    Yeah, that's the ticket. It has nothing to do with the value of the asset, it's all about that very important Promise to Pay.

  13. Bigsby


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    480   11:56am Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    David Losh says

    Bigsby says

    Why would you know or care about lawsuits filed against you? Errmm...

    That is the question, why would I know or care?

    I think what you are trying to say is that I should care, but you never offer any reasons for that.

    The banking system is so screwed up that I don't ever expect to take on more debt.

    I never had debt before, so I don't see using it in the future.

    The good times for credit are gone.

    So in the US they don't inform you of a lawsuit against you? That's an interesting approach.

  14. David Losh


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    481   12:04pm Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Bigsby says

    So in the US they don't inform you of a lawsuit against you?

    Evidently not, but that doesn't answer the question of why I should know, or care.

    It's all the same thing. They ask for money, they get paid.

    However the reason I don't care any more is that even if these blood suckers get paid you, the individual, have to ensure that you get a release.

    So as far as I know those lawsuits are filings of satisfaction.

  15. Bigsby


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    482   12:05pm Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    David Losh says

    Bigsby says

    So in the US they don't inform you of a lawsuit against you?

    Evidently not, but that doesn't answer the question of why I should know, or care.

    It's all the same thing. They ask for money, they get paid.

    However the reason I don't care any more is that even if these blood suckers get paid you, the individual, have to ensure that you get a release.

    So as far as I know those lawsuits are filings of satisfaction.

    If they don't inform you and you know nothing about them, how come you are paying them?

  16. David Losh


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    483   12:21pm Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Bigsby says

    If they don't inform you and you know nothing about them, how come you are paying them?

    All of the creditors? have the same offer. amount owed, no interest, no fees.

    egads101 says

    sure thing.... you get served for a lawsuit....

    Really Bob?

  17. David Losh


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    484   12:25pm Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    It's always interesting to me how threads become about me rather than the bad decisions people make when they purchase properties.

    I think it's because you guys have nothing to contribute, nothing to say, no real insight into the housing market.

    To answer your question Bob, people listen to me because I make money.

    Evidently something is working because the traffic to my websites keeps growing.

    You just don't want people to have information.

    If you didn't see 2008 as an opportunity to clear debt, then you missed an opportunity.

  18. David Losh


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    485   1:11pm Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)  

    egads101 says

    that is the reason when you insert yourself, you become a central theme.

    You're just hoping to be a central theme.

    What I have demonstrated is that Real Estate is losing value, with a correction due in the coming weeks, months, and years.

    You've never proved anything except Zillow has bad data, which they admit. They are after all a web based business model to sell advertising.

    Real Estate across the country has lost value, and continues to lose value.

    The high price of Real Estate is a problem because it is tied to the over all financial markets. These little Promises to Pay are the backbone of our financial system.

    It's a pretty darn shaky equity market considering the consumer is strapped, borrowing more just to pay the bills they already have.

    I pay lip service to Iwogs contention that owning a home will only be for the very rich, but we have tons of housing. We already have a glut of housing that no one wants to liquidate because they are uninformed.

    "Investors" can hold onto those 6% returns on housing until something better comes along, like capital improvement in job creation industries.

    You lost this one Bob, the same as you always do.

  19. David Losh


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    486   1:27pm Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)  

    egads101 says

    You really believe home prices haven't gone up over the past 2 years?

    No Bob, they haven't. If you were in the business of Real estate you would know what was going on.

    That's why you don't sound real to me, you bring nothing to the table to prove anything.

    Wyoming isn't the same market as California, the same as Chico California isn't the same as Phoenix Arizona.

    Atlanta Georgia can increase in pricing because it dropped as far as it did.

    You just haven't figured out that we are all in deep poop unless our economy changes from phantom property equity to generating real dollars in terms of goods, and services.

    Real Estate is the easy fix, it just takes a little hype. That's why both George Bush, and Obama promoted the idea that housing would lead our economic recovery.

    Bill Clinton on the other hand promised a personal computer in very home, and that was what we fondly refer to as the last strong economy.

    You've got nothing here Bob, you should move along.

  20. David Losh


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    487   1:35pm Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    egads101 says

    you really are the patrick.net village idiot!

    As fun as this is Bob, you've demonstrated again that you have nothing but a redfin sales blurb as your basis of analysis.

    We're in deep doo doo economically Bob, and you should move along, and let people get some information from this blog site.

  21. SoftShell


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    488   2:00pm Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (2)  

    Oh looky! The Illiterate Professor speaks!
    * start a sentence with a CAP....
    * "were", not "where" you dumb shit....

    egads101 says

    did you suffer a terrible head injury or something, or where you always this way?

  22. SoftShell


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    489   2:12pm Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (2)  

    Again:

    * Start a sentence with a CAP

    * "higher order thoughts" begin with a minimum of 3rd grade grammar...maybe one of your renters can tutor you on the side...

    * "Douchebag", not "douche bag" you Douchebag....

    egads101 says

    SoftShell says

    Oh looky! The Illiterate Professor speaks!

    * start a sentence with a CAP....

    * "were", not "where" you dumb shit....

    oh look the grammer nazi douche bag shows up! If you can't form a higher order thought, you can always nitpick grammer, right?

  23. David Losh


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    490   2:20pm Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (2)  

    egads101 says

    If you can't form a higher order thought, you can always nitpick grammer, right?

    or personally attack people on the internet.

  24. SoftShell


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    491   2:32pm Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike (3)  

    It is the height of entertainment watching Roberta attack the intellectualism of other posters while simultaneously displaying the English prowess of a Rosetta Stone dropout...

    David Losh says

    egads101 says

    If you can't form a higher order thought, you can always nitpick grammer, right?

    or personally attack people on the internet.

  25. David Losh


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    492   4:34pm Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (2)  

    egads101 says

    "housing is done

    It's done Bob, and you have brought nothing to the table except redfin, and Zillow hype.

    Your delusions of an economic recovery have been discussed Bob, and proved wrong.

    You have no idea what you are talking about. You live in a box Bob without windows.

  26. David Losh


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    493   4:56pm Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    egads101 says

    Yes david Losh, housing prices have fallen by 50% over the past two years.

    It's always amusing when you make stuff up Bob, or do you have some data to go along with your assertions?

  27. MrEd


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    494   5:10pm Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike (2)  

    A....horse is a horse of course of course..
    But no one has heard of a talking horse..
    Have you evvvver heard of a talking horse??
    Well listen to this..dadadadada..
    I..AM ROBERTA SLUMLORD.....

  28. freak80


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    495   5:12pm Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    We should personally attack each other while discussing the FCOJ market, not the RE market.

  29. David Losh


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    496   6:03pm Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    egads101 says

    Your the moron who keeps claiming "home prices are down over the past two years" you've NEVER once backed anything up with anything

    Well, Bob, I'm a seller in today's market, and as you keep pointing out those sales are less than what was paid for Atlanta, Wyoming is down at least 25%, and the Seattle house is down about 6% from just a few months ago.

    So yeah Bob, I'm saying that not all sellers are getting multiple offers.

    Let's see what happens tomorrow shall we?

  30. David Losh


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    497   6:05pm Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    BTW Bob, I copied this link for you.

    It shows some people use time constructively: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101040521?__source=xfinity|mod&par=xfinity

  31. iwog


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    498   7:04pm Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)  

    9/16/13 Update

    Today marks 5 weeks since I posted the original thread. Prices in nearly every single California RE market are up. All the predictions of higher interest rates causing a sell-off have failed.

    Closings are generally 30-60 days and the Mortgage rate market reached a 4.25-4.50 plateau in June. This means that virtually ALL closings posted on September 16th were initiated after interest rates spiked. Those who are counting on higher interest rates to force prices lower now have a substantial amount of evidence that this isn't happening, at least not in California.

  32. Bellingham Bill


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    499   10:00pm Tue 17 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    iwog says

    Today marks 5 weeks since I posted the original thread. Prices in nearly every single California RE market are up. All the predictions of higher interest rates causing a sell-off have failed.

    it took 2 years of lower rates to build the move up, it's going to take more time to eat at that forward momentum.

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=mvk

    When I was first in the housing market in the late 90s I had simply no clue about the macro picture.

    Few people understand this now.

    Plus the economy is kinda OK now for most people. This may change, for the better, or worse.

    Taper taper taper. Droughts affecting food supplies (my bacon from TJ's is now 12oz when it used to be 16oz, and comparing my receipt this week to 2012 I do see other 10%+ price rises). Fiscal Cliff II.

  33. dodgerfanjohn


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    500   1:00am Wed 18 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    Well I've rarely found an attorney who understands statistical analysis or the concept of standard deviation, so short snapshots of markets are probably a duck forte.

  34. iwog


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    501   8:15am Wed 18 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (2)  

    dodgerfanjohn says

    Well I've rarely found an attorney who understands statistical analysis or the concept of standard deviation, so short snapshots of markets are probably a duck forte.

    1. I'm not an attorney
    2. My degree was genetics
    3. I took statistics at UC Davis and got an A

  35. freak80


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    502   8:52am Wed 18 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Looks like the duck wins. CA markets are up.

  36. cloud15


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    503   11:19am Wed 18 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Here you go , Fed just supported Iwog's prediction

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/18/us-usa-fed-idUSBRE98G1D620130918

  37. Flux


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    504   2:14pm Wed 18 Sep 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Duck wins.

    Why??

    Because he realizes the game is manipulated, it's not organic, it's contrived. The bank are still holding inventory and hanging on to distressed squatter properties, they need prices to stay up so their losses are minimized. I doubt all the investors would enter the market like they have if a crash was coming.

    The game is rigged and the Fed just confirmed it. Learn to play or just be happy you are not in it.

  38. iwog


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    505   4:20pm Wed 6 Nov 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)  

    UPDATE: Much of this thread concerned inventory. Back in August it was insisted by several that inventory had bottomed and therefore new supply was coming into the market which would moderate/reverse price increases.

    The following California counties have LESS inventory today than November 5th, 2012:

    Los Angeles county (significantly less)
    Santa Clara county
    Marin County
    San Francisco county (10% fewer)
    Yolo County
    San Mateo

    The following California counties have MORE inventory today than November 5th, 2012:

    Contra Costa
    Alameda
    Sacramento
    San Diego
    San Bernardino (barely)
    Orange County

    Source: Redfin

    It is by no means clear that inventory has bottomed. Right now it seems to be flat-lined with the huge California price increases doing nothing to encourage sellers. In addition, foreclosures are continuing their downward trend which should also put pressure in inventory numbers.

  39. iwog


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    506   4:27pm Wed 6 Nov 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)  

    PRICE UPDATE: Back in August there were lots of people insisting that the mortgage rate spike would depress housing prices and scare away buyers. Some even insisted that the crash would shortly resume.

    Obviously this never happened. 30-year mortgage rates crossed into the 4%+ territory in May 2013. It is now 6 full months after the rate spike and virtually ALL escrows that were locked in May of 2013 have now closed. Furthermore nearly ALL of the loans locked in at 4%-4.5% have also closed.

    The result? There is absolutely no evidence from any source to indicate the 1% spike in mortgage rates depressed the California real estate market. In fact prices going into the fall slump have remained flat or in many cases kept increasing.

    NO ONE should hold out hope that rising interest rates will squash this market. Rates will lag the housing recovery like they always do. By the time higher rates start having an effect, you should be selling anyway.

  40. Rew


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    507   7:51pm Tue 4 Mar 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

    iwog still sitting well with predictions as far as I can see.

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