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The Public Be Suckered (that's you)


By ttsmyf   Follow   Fri, 18 Oct 2013, 12:11pm   15,275 views   13 comments
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“The Public Be Suckered” is (1) these histories,
and (2) keeping them out of sight.
(See latest magnitudes
in table at end.)


SUMMARY
This page shows multiple track records of collective economic foolhardiness by the USA people. These pasts are nearly never shown to the people by the powers that be. This allows ignorance instead of learning, and it enables further fooling of the people.

First two charts Stocks and homes are assets priced in US$ -- so, their soundly shown price histories are inflation-adjusted ("real"). But such are seldom seen, because: Well apparent therein are our nation's serial, massive mispricings. Recently and unprecedentedly, both have been contemporaneously far above extrapolated history.

Third chart Contemporary with the preceding have been (1) the downward drift of the personal saving rate for three decades (11%→3%), and (2) the accompanying doubling, over two decades, of the household debt/income ratio after 25 years in the narrow range 0.51 - 0.60. "More consumption now!!"

Fourth chart The preceding two traces of annual data each broke trend after 2007, coinciding with a huge jump in U.S. governments' debt, shown here. "Recent debt jump is 2/3 of that for World War II".


Asset price histories that look like cocaine intoxications:

Longtime overconsuming:

Recent debt jump is 2/3 of that for World War II:

http://www.showrealhist.com/RD_RJShomes_PSav.html
http://www.showrealhist.com/debtGDP_whys.html
The MEDIA know:
Wall St. Journal
N.Y. Times http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.html


The Public Be Suckered, Magnitudes (Data are avgs for calendar yr/qtr/mo shown)
Ought
Latest To Be* Change
Real 67.7 54 20% drop
Homes 2013Q4

Real 101.7 49 51% drop
Dow 2/2014

Personal 4% 11% Tripling
Saving 2013

Debt/ 0.92 0.56 39% drop
Income 2013

Debt/ 1.0 0.6 40% drop
GDP 2013
*From extra-
polated histories
(First 2 URLs above)

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  1. Entitlemented


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    1   2:36pm Wed 15 Jan 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Wow, Montesquieu says the same thing in the book written years ago.

    Smart Guy!

  2. tatupu70


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    2   3:06pm Wed 15 Jan 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Where in the heck do you get the real Dow "should" be at 49?? What extrapolated history are you basing that on?

    And I would strongly argue that home prices rise correlate much better with real income instead of inflation. So, your extrapolated history is wrong, IMO.

  3. ttsmyf


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    3   3:53pm Wed 15 Jan 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    49 is from curve shown here
    http://www.showrealhist.com/RD_RJShomes_PSav.html
    origin of curve herein
    http://www.showrealhist.com/
    Note that 1.64%/yr is just long term average of bubbles-dominated past, NOT necessarily anything 'natural'. I use it to 'estimate' future.

    See BOOM TIMES note in NYT chart here
    http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.html
    for my real homes reckoning. Idea is (same!) home prices just follow CPI-U in recent decades, because we are NOT running out of land (Shiller) -- EXCEPT FOR BUBBLES!

  4. ttsmyf


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    4   12:25pm Fri 17 Jan 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Hello Entitlemented,
    Thank you very much for your brief Comment #1 here.
    http://patrick.net/forum/?p=1230886

    I am supposing that your Montesquieu reference is to this summary point.
    "Montesquieu's philosophy of history minimized the role of individual persons and events. He expounded the view in ... that each historical event was driven by a principal movement ..."
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montesquieu
    And I further suppose that my "The Public Be Suckered" corresponds to M's "a principal movement".

    This status quo sure is profoundly UGLY, especially by Red, White & Blue standards. How can we end "The Public Be Suckered"???

  5. ttsmyf


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    5   2:50pm Fri 17 Jan 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Entitlemented says

    Wow, Montesquieu says the same thing in the book written years ago.

    Smart Guy!

    My reply to #1 is #4.

  6. ttsmyf


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    6   2:52pm Fri 17 Jan 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    tatupu70 says

    Where in the heck do you get the real Dow "should" be at 49?? What extrapolated history are you basing that on?

    And I would strongly argue that home prices rise correlate much better with real income instead of inflation. So, your extrapolated history is wrong, IMO.

    My reply to #2 is #3.

  7. Tilt


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    7   2:05pm Sat 1 Mar 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

    What these charts chart is theft by Quantitative Easing. The banksters print themselves money and buy valuable things, including the government and justice system. The money "trickles down" on the little people, devaluaing the currency by the time they get any. Taxation of income and basic essentials (mostly gas/workers) completes the cycle of wealth transfer from the increasingly poor majority to the bankster minority, preventing the printed surplus from hyperinflating the serfs into stampeding.

  8. ttsmyf


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    8   5:30pm Sat 1 Mar 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Tilt,
    Thank you, seems credible, did not follow 100 percent. I try to get this content
    http://www.showrealhist.com/RHandRD.html
    apparent to the people, thinking it a cure for gross irrationality, which I reckon our basic flaw. I know how to be ignored! Be glad to hear any ideas for being effective ...

  9. ttsmyf


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    9   1:49pm Sun 2 Mar 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    For convenience, dates added to table at end.

  10. ttsmyf


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    10   3:40pm Fri 14 Mar 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    All the histories now updated thru 2013, at least.

  11. ttsmyf


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    11   12:02pm Tue 8 Apr 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    SUMMARY section added at beginning.

  12. Ormondroyd


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    12   10:23am Sat 12 Apr 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Semms sad but true to me. Now that everyone and his brother has been forced into a 401(k) for his retirement the dividend yield on the broad market has shrunk to just about the inflation rate. The excuse used to be that dividends were taxed twice, but now that dividends are taxed less than previuosly the payout remains anemic. So the stock market becomes a Ponzi scheme where your only real gain is if others are willing to pay more for your shares than you did. (The dividend yield being zero after inflation) Sucker sure seems like the appropriate term to me.

  13. ttsmyf


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    13   2:12pm Sat 12 Apr 2014   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Ormondroyd says

    Semms sad but true to me. Now that everyone and his brother has been forced into a 401(k) for his retirement the dividend yield on the broad market has shrunk to just about the inflation rate. The excuse used to be that dividends were taxed twice, but now that dividends are taxed less than previuosly the payout remains anemic. So the stock market becomes a Ponzi scheme where your only real gain is if others are willing to pay more for your shares than you did. (The dividend yield being zero after inflation) Sucker sure seems like the appropriate term to me.

    I reckon that deceptionS by omission dominate, so let's get these compelling, historical charts in everyone's face, all the time! I suppose that the big con will expire if the truth is everywhere! Take a look at the bottom of this page:
    http://www.showrealhist.com

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