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Permalink Like Dislike (1) So home prices are down, gold price is up, and Europe is facing economic collapse...
What should we do? What are the best investments? What stocks/currencies/bonds/commodities should we short?
We must think for ourselves because nobody else will care.
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Not very sophisticated at all I know, but it has served me well the past few years.
Hey, simplicity works. :)
Do you trade every down swing or do you tend to hold on for weeks?
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Do you trade every down swing or do you tend to hold on for weeks?
No general rule there... depends on the name and circumstances at the time.
For instance, SKF was a great buy recently at ~120 and is a good buy right now with the [almost] inevitable nationalization of Citi and BofA on the horizon (and don't forget all the smaller banks yet to go under).
S&P500 at 800 is just plain insane and I feel comfortable holding SDS for as long as it takes to realize at least an additional 50% increase from here.
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phantom housing inventory are those houses technically in foreclosure but kept off the foreclosure through re-org, interest forgiveness, government buy-out, or simple neglect by the banks. They won't be auctioned off.
It is like the bad corporate loans in Japan. As long as the debtor doesn't fold, even if he is not paying a cent, banks will still classify such as a "performing loan". By the same token, US banks will try their best with the help of government to classify all near default or already-defaulted mortgage as "performing mortgage". That's why all the TPTBs are talking about "KEEPING people in their homes". The verbage is very interesting here, why not encourage, why not facilitate, but keep?
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Stainless steel: It should perhaps be pointed out that stainless steel is not inherently radioactive. The background story appears to be that there have been three batches of *contaminated* stainless steel that was manufactured in India, and now has to some extent spread around the globe.
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Apologies for not following the original link before posting.
I read the rest of the posting (by OO) as being a complaint about the quality of German Geiger counters. I realize now that was not the intent :-).
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There have been cases in the USA where a radioactive source was "scrapped" and created a huge mess. The amount of money required to clean up these big messes are much larger than what most companies could afford to pay for.
It is like taking a big smelly piece of dog shit and throwing it in with the peanut butter mixing equipment. It just gets mixed up in the batter and contaminates the whole batch.
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I was watching Charlie Rose earlier and they were talking about the 75B bailout for housing. A couple of the guests on the show agreed that they will eventually write down the principle of the mortgage but first there will be a push to get folks into a better loan. Common sense tells most people that this wont work but it's clear that it's a political move by Obama. He plans to move fast enough that people wont have time to think.
I'm starting to think that we are watching the colapse of capitalism.
Obama is starting to look like a very dangerous man.
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The smug Obama loving liberals that like to throw money at their problems are going to get a lesson on how to really throw money around.
It's ironic that the middle to upper middle class liberals are the ones that will pay the bill for this.
Within the next two years, the goverment is going to step in and forgive the debt owed on houses that is above the value of the home. House that are "underwater" will be re-valued at whatever the current market is. The owner will be issued a new mortgage based on that current market value.
It seems to me that by then, the goverment will own the banks and therefore own the housing. It will be the way Russia was in that you will pay for government housing. Instead of living in the projects, like the south side of Chicago, you will live in the suburbs of Pheonix(Mesa) or the central valley of California.
So why buy a house now?
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empty_houses:
Dude, it was the Republican party that presided over, and indeed brought on, the collapse of capitalism. Obama unfortunately got the ugly job of cleaning up the mess and healing a very sick patient.
And there is nothing smug about it. There are VERY few people that are pleased about what happened. It is an absolute disaster, and I for one would much rather have seen the housing bubble never occurring in the first place.
Nationalizing the banks? Yes, it appears to be the only way out that does not permanently stick the taxpayers with the bill. Even "Easy Al" Greenspan and prominent Republicans are now talking about following the swedish model.
The losses of the banks must be paid from future profits. When banks have worked off their losses, they can go private again, but this time under proper regulation.
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Carlsbad, CA
Malcolm's website
Not to mention the new private banks that will naturally be formed.
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What I've always been thinking is, where did the scrap metal for Russian nuclear plants go? Particularly after the USSR breakdown, like someone was going to enforce the safety guidelines in the cleanup?
The Indian contamination was obviously caused by their sloppy enforcement, and noticed the iron ore price just a year ago? Scrap metal price went through the roof and I won't be surprised that someone there just thought reselling scrap metal from nuclear plants was a "profitable" idea.
Now, if iron ore price was going to rise again (for some strange reason) in the not-so-distant future, with a global depression in place, you can count on nuclear plants scrap metal going into circulation in a big way again, and the US won't be spared, not because we import, but because there are enough poor people out there stealing rail track, public signboard for the scrap metal value.
Maybe switching to clay pot is not a bad idea
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in firefox: ctrl- +
Thanks!
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Summerland, CA
This guy says that if we let Citi and BofA die, we could bail out the rest of the banks with the original TARP funds:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/121245-rating-the-top-12-u-s-banks-from-hidden-gems-to-zombies
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Anyone who wants to discuss the Irresponsible Homedebtors Act of 2009 is invited to my Capitalism 2.0 thread on it.
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The only thing we should do about the flood of foreclosures is to speed up the processing of foreclosures. Get the National Guard involved and throw non-paying homedebtors on the street.
The only way we can see a bottom soon is for us to allow the market to face reality as quickly as possible.
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As I have said before, 8 more years of Bush would be vastly superior to 4 years of Obama. But anyway...
Can we fast forward to 2012 please? I rather have Prez Palin.
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Justme
I just think that the market would equalize on it's own. Obama is playing a game that is going to make things worse. His idea's wont work and they've been tried before. Politics have taken over. It's all about paying people off and securing the next election. He's going to have trouble soon though. He blew his chance to reach across the aisle. He's got some major programs coming up soon that he will need support for from the republicans.
I realize that as a politician he had to do something. He could not set back and watch the laws of economics take their course. The people that elected him had too many expectations. Now, people are trying to figure out where the handouts are. They want to know what line to get in and where the line is going to be.
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I gave up Obama after he agreed to vote on TARP without any safeguard to tax payers. Of course he is already talking about 2012. That is his only job.
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The responsibility for the big holes in the TARP lie with Henry "3-page" Paulson and George Bush. Lest anyone forgets.
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OO Says:
> Btw, I found Valentine Day weekend to be extraordinarily
> busy both at shopping mall or restaurants, is it an indication
> of short-term bottom, or an indication of desperation of
> our kind to secure good sex?
I was up in the Napa Valley over Valentine's Day weekend and I have never seen it this dead. We were at Meadowood and the place felt about 25% full with very few diners with us for lunch in the grill and dinner upstairs on Friday night. There was a good crowd at Martini House on Valentines Day, but not a lot of people around on Saturday and Sunday in St. Helena and Yountvill (even with the extra people out to watch the TOC roll through)...
P.S. Welcome back Randy (and it would be nice if we got new threads more than twice a month)...
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Of course he is already talking about 2012. That is his only job.
This is why I don't know why everyone was so excite about him last year.
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We were at Meadowood and the place felt about 25% full with very few diners with us for lunch in the grill and dinner upstairs on Friday night.
Haven't been there for a while. Are they all renovated yet?
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FAB's observation fits with the general picture that recessions cause people to stay closer to home. Junkets to Vegas, Napa, and the like will be down. Local destinations will be up, at least for the time being.
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Napa is close enough to home. No flying required.
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The problem with the whole cramdown/assistance picture is that it is fundamentally intractable and unsolvable.
Homedebtors are not on the hook in most states and most cases, because of non-recourse loans, option of bankruptcy and the lack of old-school debtor's prison.
Banks are not on the hook, because in reality it is the bank depositors that are. That is, until FDIC steps in and places the banks in receivership (keep in minf that that receivership is one step beyond what is typically known as "nationalization").
The whole big song-and-dance about mortgage rework is all about keeping the homedebtors and the banks in the game long enough to work off some of the losses, and in parallel prop up prices by inflating the monetary base.
I think everyone knows that the above is true, but it does not hurt to repeat it every so often.
Mind you, I am not defending any of the above, especially the part about inflating the monetary base and propping up house prices. I'm simply reciting what the big picture is.
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PP, so then why did the people show up in Napa for a "romantic weekend"?
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I thought FAB said Napa was dead during that weekend.
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The responsibility for the big holes in the TARP lie with Henry “3-page” Paulson and George Bush. Lest anyone forgets.
I didn't mean we are good with these guys. We already know what these guys are, just had some hopes on the new guy. What I am tired of is digging new holes to fill the hole we are in. He throws a Trillion around and talks about bringing deficits under control (or starting a discussion about it). He talks about helping responsible home owners and we all know it can be gamed easily. He does all the nice talk and his actions are far from his talk. His pay restrictions on executives just covers a few top guys who will be compensated different ways at a later time.
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To save money, this is the best romantic suggestion...
Let's be spiritual and meditate. You and me. Close our eyes. I see roses...
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Politicians, and their voters, must understand that inaction is often the best course of action.
The "let's do something about it" mentality must change. It only reflects the arrogance and ignorance of humanity.
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Hampton, VA
Let’s be spiritual and meditate. You and me. Close our eyes. I see roses…
Yeah Pete, that'll get you laid.
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Yeah Pete, that’ll get you laid.
It is all in the mind. ;-)
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Correction:
PP, so then why did the people NOT show up in Napa for a “romantic weekend”?
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PP, so then why did the people NOT show up in Napa for a “romantic weekend”?
Napa is quite expensive. Perhaps people want to save money.
Need to market my "Mind, Body, Spirit - How to date a girl for free" video. :)
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Well, if you don't consider so-called "fine dining" an expense, then you may be correct, or at least up to a point.
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Close your eyes, and imagine you are geting a spoonful of Creme Brule...
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I taste vanilla.
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Only one event this Bank Failure Friday?
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Only one event this Bank Failure Friday?
Yes, only vanilla creme brule.
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/806418a0-0140-11de-8f6e-000077b07658.html
Citi is trying to force the US taxpayers to convert the taxpayers ownership of preferred shares (purchased under TARP-1 in Oct/Nov) into common shares.
The motivation is obvious:
1. Citi does not want to pay back the preferred shareholders (THAT's YOU!!) the principal, nor the interest.
2. Citi wants to convert the preferred into essentially worthless common stock
3. Citi is going to ask for another capital injection in the form of selling preferred stock to the public (US taxpayers), but not until the previous batch of has been made worthless.
JUST SAY NO !! Under TARP-1, Paulson overpaid tremendously for the preferred stock, thereby shifting the losses to the taxpayers.