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Asset prices and depressions


By Peter P   Follow   Thu, 26 Feb 2009, 10:49am   4,844 views   165 comments
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under water

Two questions:

1. Should asset prices be managed?
2. Are depressions necessary to the business cycles?

If depressions are necessary, then fighting them is a mere exercise of populist reaction. If depressions can safely be avoided, should it be done through artificial support asset prices? Or should we focus on frequent and substantial technological or productivity gains?

Peter

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  1. Malcolm


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    46   10:26am Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    BTW, I would recommend a visit to anyone who just wants to visit the 80s. It is a beautiful place where you can pay your respects to a great leader and walk the grounds or have a meal with an awesome view. It is a fun full day which costs next to nothing.

  2. justme


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    47   10:27am Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Well, whatever the motivation is for a business jet, it sure did not motivate any big bank CEO sufficiently to make the right decisions on behalf of even their own shareholders.

  3. Malcolm


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    48   10:28am Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Yeah, but they are really cool. I used to work near Palomar airport and seeing those big shiny Gulfstreams coast in made me smile.

  4. justme


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    49   10:36am Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    >>A corrupt and/or incompetent free market entity will not last long (absent government intervention such as with BAC or C).

    Well, I suppose you would have to get rid of the FDIC, and then let the depositors take the loss. I don't see much satisfaction and correction stemming from that.

    Still, Vikram the bandit Pandit and Ken kenny boy Lewis would only lose their jobs, but keep their riches.

    Does your imagined version of the free market have clawback provisions for ill-gotten gains?

  5. justme


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    50   10:38am Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    At some point, every Queen or King had to own a Faberge gold egg and have colonies in order to feel important. Right now business jets is what turns everyone on. There's nothing new here. Personally, I 'd like to have my own nuclear reactor (only kidding).

  6. HeadSet


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    51   10:49am Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Personally, I ‘d like to have my own nuclear reactor

    Light water only, right?

  7. Peter P


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    52   10:50am Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    It is a beautiful place where you can pay your respects to a great leader and walk the grounds or have a meal with an awesome view.

    I absolutely agree. Well, I had to fly into John Wayne though.

    I used to work near Palomar airport and seeing those big shiny Gulfstreams coast in made me smile.

    Aren't they the cutest things. :)

    Private jets symbolize freedom the same way automobiles did. Also, they are a essential business tool for large companies. I do not understand the outcry against them. Companies should be able to keep their jets to receive TARP. You cannot tie people's hands and expect them to improve.

  8. Peter P


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    53   10:53am Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    Right now business jets is what turns everyone on.

    Well, also megayachts. Nowadays, 300-ft yachts (larger than some smaller cruise ships) are considered small.

    Now, the trend is that people will build both a yacht and a support ship for the helicopter (and all the toys) so that the downwash from the blades will not ruin the fine teak decks of the mothership.

  9. justme


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    54   10:57am Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Actually, I'd like to have my own nuclear submarine. I'd go out in the Atlantic and play underwater footsie with the Brits and the French, just for the thrill of it. Yeah, that's the ticket.

  10. Peter P


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    55   11:06am Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Not sure about nuclear but you may be interested in this:

    http://www.ussubs.com/submarines/phoenix_1000.php3

    It is over 200-ft long and not much more expensive than a new BBJ.

  11. Peter P


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    56   11:18am Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  
  12. sa


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    57   11:44am Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Private jets symbolize freedom the same way automobiles did. Also, they are a essential business tool for large companies. I do not understand the outcry against them. Companies should be able to keep their jets to receive TARP. You cannot tie people’s hands and expect them to improve

    I agree completely. Give them back their jets and get back our Trillions.

  13. Peter P


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    58   11:45am Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)  

    Give them back their jets and get back our Trillions.

    Absolutely! Bailouts are bad anyway.

  14. HeadSet


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    59   11:56am Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)  

    Peter P,

    What will we see first, private subs or private space flights? US Subs or Virgin/Rutan to lead in actual production?

  15. Malcolm


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    60   12:09pm Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Atlantis Submarines operates private submarine tours in Hawaii. These aren't Disney ride submarines, but real ones that go to 125 ft. It is a pretty interesting sensation to be 120 feet at the bottom of the ocean, especially in that clear water.

  16. kewp


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    61   12:28pm Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    What will we see first, private subs or private space flights? US Subs or Virgin/Rutan to lead in actual production?

    This is on my shopping list...

    http://www.ussubs.com/submarines/phoenix_1000.php3

  17. Peter P


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    62   12:36pm Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    What will we see first, private subs or private space flights? US Subs or Virgin/Rutan to lead in actual production?

    I think Paul Allen's Octopus carries a small submarine already.

    You can't pay me to go to space.

    Honestly, I am not thrilled about having a private submarine. I need breathing room. Besides, I am practical. I am more interested in something that will get me to Europe whenever I want at mach 0.85.

  18. kewp


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    63   12:47pm Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    A corrupt and/or incompetent free market entity will not last long (absent government intervention such as with BAC or C).

    Will a government that is self-serving, corrupt and incompetent last long? History would indicate no, but whatever the outcome, government corruption and incompetence have far worse consequences as is shown with the current crisis.

    Uh, and what interests have corrupted the government, exactly? Other than corrupt and/or incompetent free market entities?

    What other entities exist that could corrupt the government other than private interests? Aliens?

    You need to read this book:

    http://www.amazon.com/Contagion-Financial-Epidemic-Sweeping-Economy/dp/0470442212/

    The entire book deconstructs your supposed free-market nonsense completely and finally.

    A central tenet is that behind every supposed governmental free-market intervention (or lack thereof) is a powerful industry lobby fixated on maintaining that status quo; particularly of its corrupt and/or incompetent management.

    The current crisis is *entirely* the product of private interests seizing control of the Federal Government/Federal Reserve and destroying the regulatory measures that would have prevented this meltdown.

    Your entire position is bankrupt because for the last eight years there hasn't been an independent government in the United States. Just crony capitalists and their industry handlers.

  19. Peter P


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    64   12:51pm Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    What other entities exist that could corrupt the government other than private interests? Aliens?

    This cracks me up.

    "A government is a body of people, usually notably ungoverned."
    -- Some Quote

    There is no such thing as a public person. Behind every governmental figure there lies the same human weaknesses as exibited in every other private, self-serving entity under the sun.

  20. Peter P


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    65   12:54pm Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)  

    But don't get me wrong. I believe government needs to exists, only just so to protect my interests.

  21. DinOR


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    66   12:55pm Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Whether or not you're a fan of Limbaugh's ( and actually I'm *not, it just moves e-n-t-i-r-e-l-y too slow for me ) he's been doing the show for years.

    @SSHOLES like John Devaney ( anyone remember the 210' motor yacht "Carry Trade"? ) were by any comparison, a mere flash in the pan. Kind of like my @SSHOLE neighbor 'thought' he was a "bigshot" ( have I told you guys about how his bank went under and the lights are OFF at his condo..? )

    There's leverage... and then there's longevity. 'That' is what "I" respect! No matter 'what' you do for a living.

  22. Peter P


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    67   12:57pm Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    I thought his yacht measured only 142-ft...

  23. Peter P


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    68   12:58pm Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    Sad... is length, in inches or feet, the only measurement of a man?

  24. DinOR


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    69   1:00pm Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    I... stand, corrected. O.K, so he was 68 foot LESS @SSHOLE!

    In any regard it was enough to land him a spot in the Housing Bubble Hall of Shame. Cripes Peter?

  25. Peter P


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    70   1:02pm Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    Sure. ;)

  26. DinOR


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    71   1:03pm Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Oh, my point was that his now defunct and useless firm "U.S Capital Markets" simply sprouted up like a mushroom -solely- to exploit the MBS Securitization Model. Had it not been for that, he'd of been peddling Muni's to "widows and dentists".

    Sorry f@cker.

  27. DinOR


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    72   1:07pm Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    Oh yeah, and buying up precious and priceless "works of art". Maybe I was thinking he went belly-up OWING $210 mil!? Where'd that 210 # come from? Oh well, doesn't matter.

  28. justme


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    73   1:53pm Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Kewp,

    Seems we agree on certain things after all :).

  29. frank649


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    74   6:36pm Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Malcolm, at the risk of stating the obvious, I'll offer the following rebuttal for the benefit of those who might be swayed by your [imo] flawed views. I also have no interest in discussing this further with you as I tire of hearing arguments given in the face of an avalanche of evidence to the contrary, such as is the case with the crisis now at hand.

    Private industry doesn’t have the time or resources to conduct fundamental research (Lyons-Johnson, 1998).

    Firms have an incentive to share their technological advances through arrangements such as licensing, exchange agreements and the joining of technology exchange consortium. Firms that engage in such exchange give themselves competitive advantages over firms that attempt to go it alone. Many firms then have access to the best technology, but have an incentive to innovate to collect royalties from licensing, and to have valuable technology to trade with other firms. This favors entrepreneurship over bureaucratized R&D (which is much more costly in comparison) [Baumol 2002].

    In essence, Lyons-Johnson argues that the inefficiencies evident with R&D can be solved with government intervention. What he doesn't prove is that government intervention is the optimal solution. As Baumol illustrates however, no government solution could possibly be better than the best free market solution.

    Stiglitz is spokesman for pro-government and believes market imperfections can be avoided with government intervention but he completely fails to prove this. I know this because I studied his Nobel prize winning paper on imperfect information and incomplete markets. I do agree with him in a recent article in Vanity Fair where he calls the bailouts a mistake so he's not a complete crony.

    Public private partnerships have existed in the United States since its beginning

    Well then it must be a good thing [sarc]. Hasn't crime and corruption existed since the beginnings of civilization too?

    As for patents, the question that needs to be asked from a utilitarian perspective is whether the benefits exceed the costs. These monopolistic privileges certainly impose costs on society and are meant to compensate the inventor for his investment. But is the award of a monopoly privilege really the most appropriate and effective form of reward? Here again, the free market offers a better solution. Is it any surprise that most things the government does can be done better by private enterprises that stand to profit or lose? For those interested in better alternatives, I refer you to "Patents and Copyrights: Do the Benefits Exceed the Costs" by Cole, 2001.

    For those of you who wish to be enlightened, I refer you to mises.org for some excellent free articles, papers and books.

  30. frank649


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    75   6:43pm Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Kewp, I had mistaken you for a free market advocate. Oh well...

    Uh, and what interests have corrupted the government, exactly? Other than corrupt and/or incompetent free market entities?

    This argument has been rehashed so many times that I have to wonder whether you're an alien recently come to Earth. The point you fail to see is that it is government policy that enabled these crooks (both inside and out of the government) to get as far as they did. In a nutshell, bullshit regulation gave false security to and caused otherwise cautious individuals to lower their guards while policies and long-standing institutions such as low interest rates, bankruptcy reform, Fannie and Freddie and fractional reserve banking (etc) favored certain behavior like buying a house (instead of renting), going into debt, borrowing without regard to paying back, loaning without regard to ability to pay back causing the current crisis. This couldn't have happened without the help of government intervention.

    The current crisis is *entirely* the product of private interests seizing control of the Federal Government/Federal Reserve and destroying the regulatory measures that would have prevented this meltdown.

    This is an excellent argument against those who would call for more regulation in answer to the crisis. Regulation does not work! Eliminate government meddling and let the free market do it's thing.

  31. justme


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    76   6:59pm Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Frank,

    By that same argument, why should we have criminal law? Apparently, these laws do not stop crimes from being committed, so we may as well get rid of them. Laws do not work, they only provide a false sense of safety.

  32. Malcolm


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    77   7:38pm Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    I have to say that I retract my original assertion that Frank was just regurgitating dogma. Although I strongly disagree with him I respect the rebuttal. I will happily participate in friendly engagements on the subject with you.

    How about the story of the Concorde, what's your take? I assert that society has taken a huge step backwards because the pulling of a small investment by government.

  33. frank649


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    78   8:08pm Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    Justme, great question...

    Law and liberty are necessary conditions for a free market system. Hayek believed that under the enforcement of laws governing just conduct, human activities of much greater complexity will form than could ever be produced by deliberate arrangement and so interventionist activities of the government should be limited to the enforcement of such laws. Where government leaves off then, market solutions can take over...

    http://mises.org/story/2423 and http://mises.org/journals/jls/5_4/5_4_3.pdf.

  34. frank649


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    79   8:09pm Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Justme, my reply is in moderation for some reason

  35. frank649


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    80   8:11pm Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    Thanks Malcolm, but Concorde on another day... it's late for me.

  36. Malcolm


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    81   8:11pm Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    Also, since you have a very pure opinion seemingly dismissing PPPs I have to ask, what in the world could be wrong with the commercialization of government discoveries?

  37. Malcolm


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    82   8:12pm Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Ok, but you have an open invitation. I find my polar opposites interesting when I encounter them.

  38. Paul189


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    83   8:19pm Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html

    Excuse me but why is Citigroup not on this list? As much as I can tell it is a failed bank and that is what FDIC is to address:

    http://www.fdic.gov/about/learn/symbol/index.html

  39. thenuttyneutron


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    84   9:31pm Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    If we are going to discuss delusions of grandsire, I will share what I want.

    I would love to travel in my own Ha'tak Star Ship from the Series Star Gate.

  40. justme


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    85   9:40pm Fri 27 Feb 2009   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    Frank,

    I have to say you (or Mises) didn't really resolve the inconsistency that I pointed out.. If government is performing 2 societalal functions, call them A and B, why should one apply different standards of perfection to them? Even to the point when A is deemed worthy (although quite imperfect) whereas B is deemed unworthy (at the slightest imperfection, even if caused by corruption that is avoidable).

    A= criminal law and prosecution

    B= financial regulation and prosecution.

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