408 El Salto Dr, Capitola, CA 95010
By Patrick Follow Mon, 25 May 2009, 5:51pm 5,817 views 29 comments
In Capitola CA 95010
Watch (0) Share
Quote
Permalink Like Dislike Viewing Comments 1-29 of 29 Last » See most liked comments
|
Premium member Patrick is moderator of this thread. |
Follow
Befriend (54)
5,239 threads
6,173 comments
46 male
Menlo Park, CA
Premium
Posted for reader F:
There's a two bedroom, one bathroom, single garage, 878 sq ft house on a 3,267 sq ft lot around the corner from me in Capitola, CA that is for sale. Asking price is $899,500. No ocean view or anything remarkable for that matter, but "it's on Depot Hill, which traditionally supports these valuations" according to the open house dude when I strolled by the other day to sample the Kool Aid. I said to him "That's $1,000 / sq ft - like Manhattan." His response "Well, I'm not really up on the New York real estate market." Here's the sale history.
MLS: 80904836
10/22/2003 $704,000 Grant Deed Resale Matiasevich, Bradford D Martin, Tina V 1995 Trust 167894135
5/31/2001 $535,000 Grant Deed Resale Gianelli, Joseph W Matiasevich, Bradford D 167894375
11/17/1997 $330,000 Grant Deed Resale Edward Trust Gianelli, Joseph W 167893061
If it's true that we're back to 2003 levels, they're asking almost $200k too much. If it's true that we're back to 2001 levels (or will be shortly), they need to drop the price by 40%...
Follow
Befriend
6 comments
The worst kind of person is someone who gained wealth by doing nothing and has convinced themself that what they did was worth all of the money and then had the tap shut off. Realtors have been making way too much for too long for doing essentially nothing. Now that the bottom has dropped out they will do anything to including lie to you to bring back their unsustainable life style. As long as they work on a commision they will do whatever they have to to get you into the house at the highest price possible. Essentially, they will do whatever it takes to seperate you from your money. More is yet to come just sit on your hands while the get rich quick crowd buys up these early crisis homes. A couple years from now buy at an even greater bargain.
Follow
Befriend
6 comments
On the surface, it seems overpriced, and it may very well be...
But that is an awfully nice little neighborhood, and I'd expect it to be among the last to crash. So what I'd wonder more about is other recent sales in Depot Hill and if they support 2003, the asking, or an in-between price. I'ld bet the latter myself.
I do agree of course that the bargains are only going to get better for the immediate future.
Follow
Befriend
2 comments
One thing is for sure, there is no abundance of six-figure salaries in Capitola. So whoever can choose to live in this home will need to have some independent wealth.
Follow
Befriend
1 threads
21 comments
Patrick,
That area of Santa Cruz County along with anythign near West Cliff Drive is the pinnacle of fortress areas. Depot Hill is as about as expensive as it gets anywhere in the country. The houses are all old, but in an adorable neighborhood above one of the cutest beach communities on the West Coast.
Check out the sales...
1997 - $330k - expensive for a 2 bedroom, but great area so the price seems reasonable. It is also the bottom of the last down-turn in CA.
2001 -$535k - wow... 200k profit in 4 years! In May of 2001, there were still lots and lots of internet millionaires living off the dot com bubbles teat. How much you wanna bet the new owner cashed in some stock and paid cash?
2003 -$704k - 2 more years and $100k+!! Housing Bubble on its way to the top. I bet if they sold in 2006 they would have got almost a million for this place.
We are heading back down still of course so I bet the price this will ultimately be worth is the '97 price, $330k, adjusted for inflation. Probably around $400k... The seller has got to be praying someone that is flush with cash wants to waste $900k on a cute beach home. They are still out there (though I wish they would all go away) and that is why this RE agent thinks they can get it too.
Follow
Befriend
2 threads
53 comments
Speaking for a diff area that ive been following....seeing prices that once sold for 3x the now asking, and knowing that the greater many of them were indeed NEVER worth the high price paid for them, during the 'boom', I am still stunned that anyone would LEND on these places for the boom price.
Its not even the buyer buying them, imo it was more WhoTF was the seller
thinking the place was worth that.....Or the bank who lent that much.
Ive been a GC before...I have some knowledge of land and construction costs. Values.
Im seeing 350-400k boom prices on RE that is worth 250k.
IN A GOOD YEAR.
Now I see why the appraisers were so involved.
Follow
Befriend
2 comments
Disclosure: I'm not a RE agent and I think like the fact that they make 4-6% on the sale of an average home is too much.
Clearly the price is grasping for straws but in reality the agent, in this market would rather price the unit to sell before he starves his family and goes into foreclosure on his own home. There's many a deluded homeowner out there that just doesn't quite get it yet and is telling the RE agent what to list at. It's all part of the slow death process let it happen and wait for the bottom in 2011-12
Follow
Befriend
2 threads
53 comments
I mentioned the 'third wave' looming to a realtor today, asking why some of the silly prices arent lowered for sales before....the next wave.
I was told the banks prefer to wait it out til they get their price.
Ok. You do that.
...tho Im not sure who they will sell to as unemployment rises.
Follow
Befriend
117 comments
330K x 10 years of inflation gets you to 441K.
One should be careful about buying "next to the waters or ocean view" in Santa Cruz.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ys3_9RG1CIs
If you saw Santa Cruz storms from 1988-1990 you would think twice about paying $1000/sq ft.
But excellent surf spots... i did my share back in the day at steamers and at the hook.
Follow
Befriend
117 comments
This is too funny! Its been true for decades... I guess you cant say the UCSC is a contributing factor to higher prices.
UCSC named the worst university in the US
http://www.michnews.com/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi/403/18049
Follow
Befriend
1 threads
973 comments
Patrick says
That pretty much nails it. Yeah, the nabe is OK--but I ask this: how can a house with such tiny BRs be over $1K/sqft? That's some pretty serious Koolaid there, especially since there are nice homes on the MLS at $400-500/sqft.
Follow
Befriend
1 threads
973 comments
ptiemann says
Of course it's OK--if it's worth your while to spend that $. :) In this case, the buyer would spend $900K up-front for a tiny 2BR on a lot size that doesn't have much working room. When I looked around Marin, there were many 2BRs at ~$1K/sqft in Sausalito, Tiburon, etc....but that was 2004 prices, not now. If you can still get that in Santa Cruz/Capitola...I'd say sell!
Follow
Befriend
15 threads
356 comments
CRAZY, in the late 1990s my friend bought their gorgeous ocean front home on a HUGE lot right on the point of Pleasure Point for 800k. Now for that price you get a tiny 2 bedroom cottage on a tiny lot without even a view?
Follow
Befriend
6 comments
zetabeos says
Horowitz is a hack... Ignore the treehuggers, crossdressers, and lesbian radicals, UCSC is a science mecca... And science and technology is where the money is... I regularly parasitize their most excellent technical libraries...
That said, the lefty PC NIMBYs do use the campus as a rallying point for a plethora of ridiculous crusades and quests that negatively impact the town's shot at anything but brute force big brick retail in its economic future. But that doesn't change the fact that Horowitz is a hack. I mean if you think Ralph Nader, Glenn Beck, Alan Dershowitz, and/or Tom Tancredo are maximum supergenius prodigies, you'll probably disagree, but um, whatev...
Follow
Befriend
3 threads
18 comments
Proof that $900k was not reasonable for 878 sq ft 408 El Salto, which is tiny and has no ocean view:
From Zillow:
104 1/2 Oakland Ave, Capitola, CA
Recently Sold: $826,000
3 Beds
2.0 Baths
1,600 sqft
Sold On: 09/30/2009
Credible ocean views, third house from the cliff.
Follow
Befriend (54)
5,239 threads
6,173 comments
46 male
Menlo Park, CA
Premium
Wow, I love the red arrows pointing to the duplex units. What program did you use to make those?
Follow
Befriend
3 threads
18 comments
In this case proximity to the ocean, partial ocean views, and square footage of the house trump a bigger lot size. And remember, Oakland actually sold for $835 while El Salto didn't sell for $900k.
And, Oakland is a 3BR/2BA house you could live in, while El Salto is a 2BR/1BA weekend-only cottage. Sure, you could expand on the lot, but how much more are you going to put in over and above the $900k!
I've been in both and concluded both were overpriced, but I'd buy Oakland before El Salto. And that's assuming the prices were equal!
Follow
Befriend
3 threads
18 comments
Agreed - both places are worth maybe $500k in my book. But ultimately the value is whatever the market will bear and the market spoke and Oakland sold and El Salto didn't!
Follow
Befriend
1 comments
Central VA 3300 sq feet 3/3, on 4 acres, built in 2005 on Lake Anna, VA. 2nd largest lake in VA with 250mi of shoreline. Deeded use of covered dock with boat lift, $350K hmmm ok it doesn't have water frontage or water view it's a lake access house which means you have to walk or drive a couple of blocks to get to your boat you could of course take your golf cart stored in your 3 car garage. One drawback...HOA fees are over $300 per year, hahahahaha, yeah $30 per month $360 per year, no I'm not missing any zeros! And property taxes are less than $3K per year. They are on their own well and septic so no water or sewer bills.
No doubt about it Californians are crazy!
Follow
Befriend
35 threads
5,700 comments
Bellingham, WA
zetabeos says
And 441K on a 15yr 4% loan pencils out to a carrying cost of under $1700. With amortization that's $3500 a month for 15 years, after that the monthly expense drops to ~$600/mo. Will rents on Depot Hill be higher than $600/mo in 2025?
Follow
Befriend (3)
34 threads
696 comments
Alexandria, VA
Troy says
PG&E would be the same after 15 years? Property tax? no inflation?
Any chance of major renovation like roofing at all? water/sewer/trash bill will be the same with that of 15 years ago? Not gonna take care of lawn at all? Pipe, door, cabinet and etc will be the same good condition after 15 years? I woud be surprised when it is lower than $600.
Follow
Befriend
3 threads
18 comments
Now listed (mls #81005046) as REO owned with an asking price of $703k, which is back to the 2003 price. It'll be interesting to see what happens now. If Depot Hill is as immune as the realtors and residents (I'm a resident, but a renting resident) say, then this little "charmer" will be snapped up. If not, let's see how close it gets to the 2001 level. So, if this is sold by the bank, does that sale become a comparable or is it ignored because it wasn't a "real" sale by a "real" owner?
@ptiemann - if this was a steal at $900k are you going to jump in at $700k?
Follow
Befriend
4 comments
Its funny but I couldn't help but notice the comparable commissions another bunch of highly paid guys make - Investment Bankers. The standard commissions of 7% +/- a few hundred bps on IPOs and M&A deals IBs charge are almost the same as the 6% charged by realtors. With the difference being you get a college degree worth $250K, then work for a number of years, drop another $250K (including opportunity cost) for an MBA then work 24hour days as an IBanker whereas all you need is your high school diploma and pass an easy exam to be a realtor. Only in America :-)
localsavage says
Follow
Befriend
3 threads
18 comments
On June 29th, 2009 ptiemann said "in absolute terms - a steal at $900k." Let's see how close he came...
Follow
Befriend
1 threads
20 comments
hmmm
Follow
Befriend
3 threads
18 comments
Back on the market again at $702,900...
I guess the bank being a "tough negotiator" is realtorspeak for "unwilling to accept lowball offers." Either that or the "more than half a dozen offers" is realtorspeak for "one modest offer on shaky legs..."
Follow
Befriend (31)
34 threads
2,612 comments
San Jose, CA
Premium
@ ptiemann,
Estimated for $730k. Sold for $670k. Off by 8%. NOT BAD. Deal closed in 2 weeks; more than likely a cash purchase. I agree.
Follow
Befriend (31)
34 threads
2,612 comments
San Jose, CA
Premium
@ ptiemann,
Sounds like you know your territory pretty well :-)
So what did the agent say? I'm interested in what (s)he said to you. I've seen a strategy where the buyer came back to the bank after inspections and ask the bank to drop the price by the $$ amount it required to fix/repair per the inspection reports such as termites and etc. In the last case I know of, the inspection reports came back with $65k worth of fixing. the bank dropped $25k just to close the sales. Yeah I know. She got herself really good inspectors.
Follow
Befriend
3 threads
18 comments
OK, so let's recap. My original post (reader F) stood for the proposition that asking $900k for this property was ridiculous. ptiemann disagreed, saying that the "original listing sound(s) reasonable and actually - in absolute terms - a steal at $900k." He (I presume from the "mann") then justified his at-least-$900k valuation for the 2BR/1BA 878 sq ft El Salto house with no ocean view by comparing it to the 3BR/2BA 1,600 sq ft house with ocean view house at 104 Oakland, that actually sold for $825,750. The basis for this comparison eludes me - real house with ocean view vs. tiny weekend cottage with no ocean view. But I digress - the market spoke and El Salto didn't sell for $900k nor at auction for $688k. Ptiemann, ever the expert, then predicts a post-auction sale of $730k, which he misses by $60k after crowing "let's see how close I got!" Wow, only 8%! But he has of course conveniently forgotten about his June, 2009 $900k valuation, which means he is in actual fact off by close to a quarter of a million dollars, or about 35%. As predicted in the first post, El Salto is worth somewhere between the 2001 and 2003 prices, especially adjusting for inflation and considering that El Salto is as neat as a pin and probably had at least $100k dumped into it between 2001 and now. At least $100k! And finally and even more bizarrely, despite his recent and massive overvaluation of El Salto, ptiemann declares himself happy with the final sale price, saying that this sale "make(s) my own properties look more valuable, so I’m ok with the numbers." Wow. Comparable property sells for 35% less than he thought it was worth and it makes his properties look more valuable? Wow.
Relentless optimism in the face of all evidence to the contrary? He can only be... A REALTOR! You heard it here first folks!
Sorry to rag on you ptiemann, but sometimes you just have to grow a pair and fess up that you got it wrong.