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If housing gets cheaper, will the sushi also?
If sushi gets cheaper will Peter P buy me some?
The perfect sushi order:
2 orders $anta Barbara Uni
1 order ama-ebi
2 orders kampachi
1 order hotate
1 order teka maki
1 large Asahi.
and if Peter P. is buying
1 order tobiko w/quail egg and
1 more order Uni.
Trolls need not bother.
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"in effect, prices have been booming for 18 years now, with the last 12 years being one definable cycle…"
Hmm, the intangibles must be darn good...
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Jimbo,
I'm not sure of the situation now, but in the past my family could not invest in foreign stocks. They all keep their savings in RE or in bank deposits. They all did a little gambling in the Chinese stock market, but eventually the losses just became too depressing.
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Rat_patrol Says:
> Any thoughts on employers requiring employees
> to live within a certain distance from their office ?
I won't hire anyone with a long commute since it never works out...
SF Woman's post about the young atty. that fell asleep driving home reminded me of the time I fell asleep at 80 mph on 280 and woke up when I hit the ice plant (and somehow was able to get back on the road and make it home)...
My goal is to have a commute of
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FAB,
Well, someone with an insane commute usually tell other people something, either about their sanity or their persistance. However, I think the young attorney falling asleep had a lot more to do with her insane work schedule. I wouldn't be surprised if traffic accidents were a leading cause of death amongst medical interns.
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yes, thanks, FormerAptBroker, i've posted john reed's links a couple of time in here now ;)
i would start my own guru debunking pages, but i'm too afraid of being sued on some technicality...
e.g. www.jenman.com.au
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This is the MOTHERLOAD of commutes:
ps Says:
…speaking of monster commutes - just a couple of days ago, there was a piece in the San Jose Mercury about some guy who works at Cisco and lives somewhere on the fringes of Yosemite, I shit you not. I don’t remember the exact numbers, but it was like 350 miles a day… five days a week. I was surprised he doesn’t have a tele-commuting arrangement…
He puts 90,000 miles a year on his Honda Accord, and has one fillup a day. The guy has been doing this since 1989…
_____
Wow!
I don't know what to say...I'm speechless; I'm struck dumb...dumbstruck!
I feel a sense of awe and wonderment, almost a mystical feeling of
childlike credulity, amazement and respect.
Heroic commute?
No, this is much, much more than that. This is an EPOCHAL commute. A once in a century occurance. Only a spiritual master or saint could pull of that kind of commute. And only a Honda could withstand that kind punishment, that kind of milage.
I bow and courtsey in deference to this Zen-like discipline!
Is this guy for real? Are you shitting me?
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Different Sean,
if you don't mind, can you tell me if the following grocery price sound reasonable for Sydney? My parents are telling me some unbelievable grocery prices in Queensland (Gold Coast area) which I found hard to believe. Things are like 1/4 - 1/3 of what they cost here in California, I wonder if they are too good at saving money :-)
Everything in AUD
Navel oranges: .99 / kg
Watermelon: 25c / kg (summer) 50c/kg (winter)
Seedless grapes 1.8 / kg
Apples 89c /kg
Strawberry 2.2 /kg
Free range chicken breast 8.99 /kg
Salmon (Australia) 8.99 /kg
Yellow Tail: 6.5 / kg
organic tomatoes 1.99/kg
lobsters (Tassie) 25.99/kg
I probably am not the best shopper when it comes to grocery, but these prices sound incredibly cheap to me.
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Different Sean's website
I think your info has some unit of measure problems...
interestingly, Qld just had a hurricane of their own which destroyed a lot of crops, so there was a price blip - it's exactly analogous to the patterns in N.Amer. now but in the southern hemisphere at about the same latitude - global warming effect?
apples are typically about $3-$4 a kg here though, and i think they grow in cooler climates. therefore they would be 89c each, i.e. per apple. strawberries are $1.38/100g ($13.80/kg) or $5.18 for a 375g punnet.
you can check prices online at http://colaph.colesmyer.com.au/ and put in a postcode of '2000' for sydney prices...
1 kilograms = 2.2 pounds for comparison...
i dunno, i live on corn chips and salsa, heh. altho a lot of pubs offer incredibly cheap $5 steaks etc when i eat out, heh...
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Thanks for the link, DS
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DS,
But what about lobster? Is there any hope of $9 USD/lb lobster sashimi?
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wot? do i look like i know from sashimi? fuhgeddaboudit...
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Fewlesh,
nope, I am also in the same neck of woods, just keeping a tab on how many are on the downward trend already. I won't be shopping until after 2009, but I'd like to see when it starts sliding badly for my other investments :-)
I am actually looking for a larger piece of land to build when we are in a full crash mode, because I believe that one can get a far better deal in snapping up land than houses (land is more illiquid and require full payment in cash in down times).
That Monte Sereno property is fine, once you get above lexington reservoir and into the 95033 zip code, that's where the fault line is, cutting right across the summit drive area, and of course the Loma Prieta area is high risk.
If you know the neighborhoods well, you should look out for the land deals. Some amazing pieces of land already on the market, but going for 1.3-1.6M per acre, for now. Land drops much more than a house, especially those land that are in zones forbidden by the city to divide into several parcels. Be patient, wait till after 2009.
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Interesting stuff on my hometown of Alhambra, rather sorry I missed the debate. Personally, I'm leaning closer to Joe Schmoe's nominal drop of close to 50% than Jimbo's more moderate fall (with most of the "correction" coming in the form of inflation, while RE prices stay flat). My rationale is I just don't see wages here rising that fast enough to stimulate much non-RE price inflation over the next several years.
We've all seen (or posted) stats here showing anywhere from 50-70% of CA jobs created in the last 5 years related to housing. Once it's obvious to all that the 20% YoY price gains are history, the RE market will fall off a cliff and take these jobs with it. Flat to negative job creation (recession) is just not conducive to broad-based wage or price inflation. If we really are past peak oil, energy may be one notable exception to the rule. Of course, the Fed has stopped reporting M3 and may have other plans with regards to currency debasement, though in a severe recession this may prove no more effective than pushing on a string. Only time will tell.
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HARM,
Excellent point about RE jobs.
If DinOR doesn't post a negotiation post soon, would you consider a post about the impact of RE job losses in a post-bubble burst economy?
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If DinOR doesn’t post a negotiation post soon, would you consider a post about the impact of RE job losses in a post-bubble burst economy?
realtors can always go back to their old jobs of being slime-mould around the edge of ponds and other stagnant bodies of water... or political advisers... or used car salesmen - there's a wealth of choice...
some RE agents supposedly closed their doors in the 'downturn' of the last 2 years or so in sydney. some also started taking 1% commission on the sale of expensive properties of $1M and up, instead of the usual 2½ - 3% commission. Note the concept of a 'buyers agent' is a novelty here, I know of one woman only who started doing it, where it was reported in the press as a bizarre and unusual occupation like a chicken sexer...
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nomadtoons's website
Whoa... Lotta posts here. Anyhow, I had an interesting weekend. First of all, I was driving to the Goodwill to pick up a lawn mower. I was listening to Live 106- that FM station that's pretty much for beer-drinking, football-watching men. Anyhow, they had this Real Estate show on there, where callers would ask questions. I've heard this show once before about 4 months earlier. Last time, everyone was buying and the sky was the limit. The hosts are all associated with various loan and RE agencies, so in reality, the show was pretty much one big advertisement. This time though, the tone was really diffrent. I only drove long enough to hear 3 callers, but all 3 were very distressed individuals. 2 of the 3 had taken out IO loans, and one had taken out an ARM, IO, and fixed 30 on 2 seperate properties. One caller claimed that he had bought one residence in Florida, one in Sacremento, and his own primary in the Bay Area. He said that even if he sold the one on Fl and Sac, he would lose a ton of money from the original costs, so in essence, he was sunk. The two previous callers were simply given generic answers- basically call their loan office and see if they could rework their finances. The other guy... well they didn't really have an answer. Jesus. I know that we sit on this site and mention all the people we know who are F*cked, but to actually hear them on the radio is amazing. To me it sounds like a LOT of people genuinly did not consider a potential downturn, or how they would be able to pay for the houses once those loans started to get kicking.
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Nomadtoons-
Well, I think there are two answers to that issue. The first one I understand, the second I don't.
The first is that Boomers are unprepared for retirement. They have always spent prolifgately and haven't saved much at all. That is why they are taking on these crazy risks; they have no choice. If you are 48 and have only $10,000 in your 401(k), putting aside an extra $500 per month isn't going to cut it, not when the mortgage on your primary residence will have a balance of $300,000 when you reach age 65. You've pretty much got to start trading tech stocks or flipping houses.
The second thing is that Boomers seem incapable of downsizing. I am only 34, but I could live on Social Security quite easily. It would be no problem at all. You'd lead a simple life, but it could still be very pleasant. For whatever reason, Boomers shudder at the thought of this. I don't understand why, but they do.
Finally, this sort of crazy optomism has generally worked out for Boomers. They really have led a gilded existence for the most part, aside from life's usual tragedies nothing bad has really ever happened to them as a group. Well, the ones who had the balls to go to Vietnam saw plenty of horrors, but the ones who stayed home just kept on leading a comfortable middle class life. This has never changed. For this reason, the Boomers see no reason to be risk averse; there has never been a downside for them.
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"If you ask me, it was the thought that even though we can buy anything we want, if something such as a house got too expensive, then it would be one item we would have to deny ourselves, and in our minds as American consumers, this is unacceptable."
Hmmm, is there a cool German term for eyes bigger than stomach? :)
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Joe Schmoe,
Good points. It's truly bizarre to think that many Boomers are less financially ready for retirement compared to their kids, even though they the opportunity to buy into education, housing and the job market at a dramatic discount compared to us.
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Joe,
I guess I didn't mean to go off on the boomers. I tend to do that from time to time, but for boomers like my parents who taught me to save, work hard, and be thankful for what you have, I can't say they're all like that. That said, I can't help but think that they are major contributers to the last 2 major messes we've had economically, and all for the same reasons you mentioned above, which is that many were irresponsible with their savings and out of sheer desperation must do whatever they can to grab ahold of some money.
While in the library, I also saw a book called "defending the greatest generation", which was basically a book blabbing on and on about how great the boomer gen was. That right "was". I'm greatly appreciative of what they did for us, for without them many of the social institutions we have now are a result of some of the things they did, but enough is enough.
Living with less can be less stressful. But you can get away with having stuff and living more simplistically as well. I do it by always looking for quality used things. For example, I bought a large 1950's kitchenaid mixer with 3 bowls, all the attachments, a meat grinder, and dough hook for $5 at a church sale. These things are still made the same exact way as they were then. All the attachments are still available. The cost new is over $250, and honestly, the new ones are built like crap. Most of the things I own are old, used, and either cost nothing, or very little. So if I had to get rid of them, it wouldn't be any skin off my nose, and in fact I could sell the stuff on Craigslist and actually make money. People aught to think about the time it takes for them to be excited over something new and the time they aren't. They'll see that the new car feeling only lasts a little while, and the same for everything else. So in essence, many are just chasing that " new" feeling all the time. If people just used stuff until it was totally worn out and irrepairable, I bet they'd save a TON of money.
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Nomad,
I'd add another thing that contributes to profligate spending and unhappiness. Advertising and mass entertainment. People always compared themselves to the Joneses, but now the Joneses we see are Donald Trump and rappers. Turn onto HGTV and see 5,000 sq. ft houses being passed off as a nice little summer cottage. Media has made Americans believe we can never be too thin or too rich, but their attempts to live up to that image has made them fatter and poorer.
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Astrid,
Actually, that was a chapter in itself in the book. It mentioned that TV shows, movies, and magazines tend to always portray upper middle to upper class citizens. Because there is no diversity on the prgramming, Americans see it as the norm, and therefore adjust their own self image to what they see. Speaking of house related shows on cable TV, here are just a few:
* HGTV's "House Hunters"
* HGTV's "What You Get for the Money"
* HGTV's "Designed to Sell"
* BBC America's "Location, Location, Location"
* HGTV's "Buy Me"
* Discovery Home Channel's "Double Agents"
* Bravo's "Million Dollar Listing: Hollywood", "a six-episode original series chronicling the high-stakes, cutthroat world of real estate in a thriving market."
* Fine Living to release a show in 2006 on home architecture
* Fine Living to release a show in 2006 on "the anatomy of the real-estate deal".
* The Learning Channel's "The Adam Carolla Project" in which the host of Comedy Central's "Too Late With Adam Carolla" (a former carpenter) "guts his childhood home with the goal of flipping it for more than $1 million."
* TLC's "Property Ladder"
* A&E's "Sell This House"
* A&E's "Flip This House"
* TLC's "Flip That House" (not to be confused with A&E's "Flip This House")
Kinda scary isn't it?
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New Thread?
While theories as to why we are in a bubble abound I've got to believe that one of the primary reasons is the total inability on our part as Americans to NEGOTIATE! We've completely lost it. In years gone by there certainly were those that clearly were better at negotiating than others but for the most part all Americans had at least SOME negotiating skills! Now after years of standing in check out lines and paying what we are told to pay we've lost some of the most basic "self preservation" skills one can have. How did we get here? How did we lose the simple primal ability to say "I don't like the deal, here's what I propose?" Why have we become so compliant when making an offer? Any offer? Why are we losing one of the most basic survival skills?
People, we ALWAYS make our money on the buy! If we don't "buy it right" don't look to make any money any time soon!
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Randy H, SQT, Harm,
Is there a way we can get this posted as the new thread while I figure out how to get my password changed? Many thanks!
DinOR
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Ooooh,
I know, we can pin the blame on CarMax and no haggle supermarkets. In much of the World, people take pride in their ability to lower that head of lettuce by an extra shekel. Americans have been born with no such skills. Whose who retain them, such as lawyers and car salesmen, are frowned up as low life snakes...
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The obvious solution?
Free law school for everybody!
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SFWoman,
This blog is a pretty nice community. I now spend so much time here talking about consumption that I don't even have time to go out and buy stuff :)
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Mr. Vincent,
Why do boomers see work as self actualization? Do they dislike work as a group or think they're too good for work? Do they think of retirement as the ultimate in freedom?
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nomadtoons's website
I think what is disctinctivly missing from the American lifestyle is a sense of pride in ownership. What I mean by this is that while many Americans may go out and buy a nice, expensive, or latest model-something car, very few actually take care of it. It is a model "X" and that's all there is to it. Never mind that people forget to change the oil, maintain the engines or do other basic maintence. They'll keep it for 5 years then sell it to buy another. If you take care of something, whether it be a house, car, bicycle, or toaster, then you will have pride in yourself. I can recall my grandfather at the age of 80. He had an 84' Ford Crown Victoria with a 5.0 Liter V8. It was a pretty igly, old, grey battleship of a car, but he babied the hell out of it. He cleaned the engine, changed the oil, and when I came over, we would go to the local diner in it and every once in a while mention that it had a " 5.0 Ford Boss engine under the hood." It was the nicest car he ever owned and he kept it until he died. You could eat off of it too. He was the same with his lawn mowers, one being a vintage 60's Sear's garden tractor. Every time we mowed the yard, he carefully parked it in the driveway, checked the oil, cleaned the air filter, made sure not to spill gas when filling it up. All very careful and concious of the fact that it was a machine and without care,it would break. He was fully aware that things cost a lot of money, and it was better to simply take good care of what you had instead of shelling out more money for something possibly not even made as well. I respected him for that. So when I see my brother beat the crap out of his truck and only remember to change the oil whenever I happen to visit once a year, it seems like it's a big waste, and I know that MANY americans are the same way, prematurely throwing away whatever they've worn out from lack of care, concern, or appreciation.
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SFwoman,
the shame of some of this is that as a part-time mechanic and person who tinkers with a lot of things, it seems that many things these days are just crappy and cheap. Even the "good" stuff. It isn't that technology hasn't improved, but that there was a culture attached to things that no longer exsists. For example, the fan in my kitchen from the 30's has 2 grease cups on the side of the motor and a screw where you remove the old brushes. It is meant to be oiled and maintained. They were put there because that's what most people did- they would actually get out the can of 3 in 1 oil and oil their table fans on Sunday afternoons, as silly as that may sound. Same with electronics. I have a bunch of radios from the 40's, and all the parts are easily replaceable. Most of them have pencil scrawled all over the backs where repairmen of the past serviced them. I don't know many people who would keep a radio or TV for over 30 years, even if they didn't have to have things replaced like these did.
Maybe I'm being a little unfair since I have a natural inclination to old stuff, but as mentioned, I do go to Wal-Mart but scarecly buy anything ( with the exception of my bicycle)non-perishable because the rest of the stuff they sell is garbage. How people fail to see how poorly made things are is a mystery to me. Industry slowly but surely cheapen things up enough to where eventually, people won't know the diffrence.
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SF Woman,
My grandparents lived through the 30's. The concepts of disposability and functional obsolescence hadn't been invented. When you got a new coat or a suit or pair of shoes you took care of them because you might not ever get another one.
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Johnnymo,
My folks in TN say that they are getting an insane amount of people from Fl moving into their area. They're similiar to the New Yorkers and Californians who sold a home for 500+k and move there for 150-200k. I wonder what this influx will do to "my" hometown.
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Johnny,
I view the recent influx of people from out of state to TN as somewhat good. Downtown Knoxville was DEAD when I was growing up. The freeway basically cut off all the traffic. So there it sat, with 50% of the buildings vacant and all the growth on the oukskirts of town. In the last 2 years, the amount of people starting to move back into and live in Knoxville is at the same level as the 1930's. Most of the buildings are being fixed up, and there is a lot of artistic things going up too. Basically, people are calling it the Knoxville Rennaisance. What I fear is that with rejuvination comes gentrification, less affordable housing, and basically- the creation of a bubble zone not disimiliar to those in the NE and West Coast. I believe that the housing boom will fall enough to impede this direction before it gets to a gentrification level, but you never know. All in all, TN would greatly benefit from the culture, money, and investments from the incoming.If people do it carefully, the area could be truly beautiful.
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DinOR,
Would it be okay for me to start a new thread on utilizing a McMansion? PS reminded me of something that always puzzled me about McMansions, how do many of the owners ever use so much space?
Everybody can talk about whatever they want, like they always do. It's just a holdover til your negotiation thread gets started. This thread is getting a little long.
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Oops,
Nevermind, new thread already created.
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SFWoman,
I was thinking of the post as a "what if"?
ex:
Your cousin Becky recently passed away and left you with a 5,000 sq. ft McMansion free and clear. The McMansion is held in trust and you are not allowed to sell it. You can take up to 3 paying boarders and use the McMansion in any other way you like.
Here are the specs:
2 floors
no basement
1st floor: large two level great room, two level entry, 1 powder room, 1 office/library, large kitchen, dining room, formal living room, power room
2nd floor: large master suite over the garage, master bathroom with shower and soaking tub, 4 other bedrooms and three other bathrooms
3 car garage
house structure stand on .1 acre of land
What would you like to do with the house. Please be as creative as you can...
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SFWoman,
LOL about the "dead zone." My parents never used either the dining room or the formal living room. They also never used two of smaller bedrooms. And they never added a deck or finished the basement. Basically my dad just wanted to live the 2 garage American dream and never thought about what he'd do with all that extra space.
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One of the great things about living in a 1250 sq ft house is that you have to curb your junk buying impulse.
I have a firm rule with my wife: one piece of furniture in, one piece out. She thinks I am an ogre for enforcing it, but she sees the wisdom of it or she would just ignore me.
I still have my old college textbooks in the attic, which I should probably throw out, but mostly we do a good job keeping down the clutter. A new child makes it much harder though.
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Jimbo,
Congrats! Is this baby your first?
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Jimbo,
Yes, congrats! She is beautiful.