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In the bleak future wasteland that is 3rd quarter California 2006, one has to ask “Where have all the Realtwhores gone?” .
Have they gone to the Hummer dealer?
Have they gone to have more plastic surgery?
Have they gone to buy more lube?
Did they run out of Viagra and/or gas for their SUV/Muscle Car?
Where did they all go?
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tsusiat's website
Hey, don't normally get to post at the start of a thread.
Cool.
Last major real estate correction on Vancouver Island saw the main real estate board go from around 2000 realtors to around 800. And only the top 20% of those were making much money.
Got that stat from the GM of Coast Realty, where I worked as an intern for a few months way back then.
Expect something similar in the next two years...
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Idyllwild, CA
Aren't they just going to roll with the rolling bubble?Like the nomadic RVs in 'Independance Day' they'll follow the bubble, wandering to Texas, the Carolinas, around the country, until, like the boomers, they just die off.
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Dead Money.
Isn't that what it's called when you cannot extract that money from an asset?
When the stock market closed for 3 daya after 9/11, The money in the market was dead.
How long will the equity in the housing market remain Dead?
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Are realtor's experiencing a hard landing in their commissions?
I'm so happy that their happy that their commissions are coming down to a more sustainable level.
How much, in total dollars combined, were their commissions in March 06, compared to their total dollars combined in March 05?
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Mike/a.k.a Sage,
I don't have 1Q 2006 Commissions but I recall reading in January 2006 that TOTAL realtor comm. for 2005 broke 60 billion dollars! Realtors insist that the seller pays the comm. Randy H and I know better. Considering that such a large percentage of buyers over the last several years have put ZERO down they are in essence "financing" the realtors commission. So basically that's 5 to 6% of purchase price X 30 years of interest. Such a deal!
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It's important not to get OT early but isn't also imperative to remember the realt-whore's best friend? Remember? Mr. "Free Money" the mortgage broker. Sure, the crooked appraisers, title companies that sell your name (and mortgage loan information) and blind inspectors are all party to the sham but it's really the mortgage brokers that are the "enablers" here. Without access to loan programs that don't even begin to put a dent in principal and their constant "realt-whore refrain" that it "only goes up!" how many homes would these clowns really have been able to "sell?"
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First thing, let's kill all the Realtors.
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Vulgar invective is to intelligent discussion as Juicy Fruit is to Cherries Jubilee. Fun, maybe, but not especially interesting or satisfying.
And Surfer-X is Bazooka Joe.
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Look, as much as it pains me to admit it the "old realtor recruitment model" wasn't all that bad (in retrospect). At least they were local people that had to live with their actions. Now? They work for 5 different firms in a 3 year period! Many truly have become migratory and this is where omniscience crept into their sales model. Show me a realt-whore that doesn't know everything! Let them talk long enough and you'll hear things like "when I was selling homes back in Texas" and your ears perk up, they're careful not do add "during the last boom".
When all else fails, try real estate.
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Garth Farkley!
So stipulated.
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nomadtoons's website
"Aren’t they just going to roll with the rolling bubble?Like the nomadic RVs in ‘Independance Day’ they’ll follow the bubble, wandering to Texas, the Carolinas, around the country, until, like the boomers, they just die off."
Linda, what you said up there is seeming to become frightfully true in some respects. I've been watching the RE stats in TX and NC, which are 2 of the states I am heavily considering a move to. TX home prices rose 16% in the last year. That's almost BA levels. At the pace it is going now, it will start to outpace my savings rate, totally wiping out my plan to save until I could simply buy there. Carolina is just as bad, but worse because they have a growing tech market, which means more people that can actually afford higher prices.The few other blogs I visit are full of investors asking questions about these states, and where they should invest, how much the homes go for, and where the business is. Basically, they're really scoping these places out. They aren't dumb and know Cali is played out. Something has got to change. We can't have the whole country get speculated to death.
It would be tragic that I move away from here only to step into another bubble zone. My biggest hope is that with things rapidly deteriorating with our relations with Iran, gas will go sky high, putting a halt to price increases in those regions since many of them are very far flung, and the vehicle of choice are F-150's.
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Generation-X:
Get off your knees; remove the knee pads; put away the lube; drop that silly little frilly-laced French Maid outfit you wore in shame; take out that book you put in your pants to prevent another a-- pounding; drop the Brillo pad and toilet scrubber...for your redemption draweth nigh!
The Housing Bubble is collapsing! The Housing Bubble is Collapsing!
The Housing Bubble is collapsing!
Shout it from the rooftops with tears of joy and liberation!
Free at last! Free at last! Free at last!
Halleluja!
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Joe Schmoe,
HUGE SOX win last night! Might yet try to get up to "drizzle town" if I can get out of here early enough. Wish me luck.
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nomadtoons's website
Boy, I saw one sign of desperation yesterday. I work downtown not too far fro m the baseball stadium. You'd think that nothing is for sale down here, but as soon as there started to be a crowd of people walking to yesterday's game, out came a plethora of for sale signs, many with hastily made printed paper sheets taped to the front.Trying to sell to drunken baseball fans?-" sure( hick) honey, we'll slap down 700k for that i bedroom hotel room overlooking the freeway."- At that point, I really, really wished I'd had a marker in my pocket so I could've written something clever like " bubble-bursting sale extravaganza!" on one of the sheets. Too bad.
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nomadtoons2,
This is what made David Lerah's comments so suprising yesterday. While conceding that some major metro markets had "cooled" he was quick to point out markets like Albuquerque and Cincinnati still showing sales growth. Well yeah, these are all the people that decided they'd had enough and went home OR figured that if they sold their dump in a so so neighborhood in CA or wherever they could afford a really nice home in a decent neighborhood. There have been several articles regarding this trend of "reverse migration" where people "rediscover" places like Iowa. You're not the only guy thinking like this.
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nomadtoons's website
Liz,
It irks me because many of my relatives live in that region and are starting to get concerned over this sudden influx of people. My parents tell me they see CA, Fl, and NY plates lined up at the grocery store. More than once, my dad has run into a couple that just moved there and are overwhelmed at how "cheap" it is there- after spending 350k on a house. The average small home in the area is 150k or less, yet there's a lot of expensive houses being built for nobody except out of staters who don't know any better. I think builders and RE agencies are overselling homes to people who don't know the area well. If I were you, I would move there first and rent before you buy. Otherwise, you migh be paying way more than you should. Be aware that NC and TN are riddled with tiny towns somewhat close together up and down the Appalachians. Asheville and Raleigh are the 2 most expensive, but boon, hickory, chappel hill, and blowing rock are all somewhat close to those areas, so be aware of your options. I get a gut feeling that come a national housing bubble burst, these areas will probably have very rapidly falling prices. Again, NC is turning more into what Silicone Valley was, with more tech stuff, so it may be a tad more resilient, but only the immediate Raleigh area.
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nomadtoons2,
Good point. If I DO make it up to Seattle for tonights game (where I will not be driving back) I'll make sure not to make any offers! (hick)
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nomadtoons's website
Dinor,
It just pisses me off. Ya, maybe I was a little ignorant in thinking that I could be the smart guy, save until I had enough, and skidaddle out of here. I started thinking about this very thing 3 years ago, and I even remember telling myself that sooner or later, everyone else would probably make the same conclusion and "rediscover" the giant lake coasters call flyover land.I never believed it would actually happen. Well, now they are, and god-dammit, I am NOT about to be screwed again. If the equation of wage vs cost gets as out of whack everywhere else as it is here, I guess I'll just suck it up and stay here.
I have a bad feeling that right now, as in within the next year is the time to make a move to another state if you want to take advantage of the severe cost diffrences, but after that, it's going to be all downhill. arg!
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DinOR,
Is what you mean by the "old realtor recruitment model" the housewife who does real estate once the kids are in school, or the old local duffer who wants to work a little in the neighborhood? What the hell has happened since then? Now realtors all need to drive BMW's to the open houses, have their silly head shot photos for their web sites and brochures, and act with disdain towards you when you show up at an open house. The obvious answer is the quick money lure: the amount of perceived commission money has suckered in a lot of people into the industry, combined with a low entry bar.
Don't get me wrong - I have no sympathy for them, but it is true that the profession is itself a pyramid scheme of sorts. The "Freakonomics" guys did a piece in their book on crack dealers, concluding that contrary to popular myth, the vast majority of dealers are not making money (they live with their mothers), and it's only the top-dogs that rake it in. It's the same for realtors - the entry bar is about the same as for a crack dealer - ability to speak English and the ability to hold money, and so most aren't qualified, able, or in a position to make lots of money. These are the ones who will be purged in the next few years.
I can't wait for this crap to end. It'll hopefully go from Alec Baldwin in "Glengarry Glen Ross" to Annette Bening in "American Beauty." That wouldn't be so bad in more ways than one.
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nomadtoons2,
Whoa there big guy! There will be plenty of time. I sat on the 9th floor in downtown Portland cold calling for six years of my life. Believe me when you're cold calling you have nothing but time to think. Mostly thinking about how did my life come to this and how do I get out? What made it worse was that you are interfacing with people that have "financials" that are the EXACT opposite of so many on the west coast. Some guy in Keokuk, IA that's self employed, makes 40K a year, his house is worth 90K (and it's quite nice I'm sure) and his net worth is 750K+! Most of it liquid. And you find yourself thinking, what am I doing wrong here? I made 1 1/2 ha ha's last year, I owe everybody and my net worth is closer to 75K?