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In the bleak future wasteland that is 3rd quarter California 2006, one has to ask “Where have all the Realtwhores gone?” .
Have they gone to the Hummer dealer?
Have they gone to have more plastic surgery?
Have they gone to buy more lube?
Did they run out of Viagra and/or gas for their SUV/Muscle Car?
Where did they all go?
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nomad/astrid,
I was somewhat disappointed that Randy H dismissed my suggestion yesterday afternoon almost off handedly. Many people have to "transplant" b/c of their careers. This doesn't mean that they're not a Texan at heart or keep a White Sox schedule in their wallet. When I was in the service a lot of guys made arrangements to have a place "back home" paid off by the time they retire. Kind of a prerequisite b/c most of them would have modest pensions. It's worked for generations of sailors so I can't see why it shouldn't work for you folks as well.
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Dinor,
Yup, my favorite musicians come from Austin. The Gourds, James Mcmurtry , the South Austin Jug Band, B4549, and tons more to name a few. Many of them play at the continental club in central Austin. What's more, TX BBQ is freakin' awesome. There's a lot of lakes around Austin, so I'd probably get a crappy little boat, hook it up to the truck, and me and the wife would boat around and drink beer wondering why we hadn't done it sooner. Course I'm getting a little too carried away. I'm still here in SF!
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Ryan,
I haven't looked much into San Antonio, but you're the 3rd person I've heard say the same thing. What's the big industry there? How far away is it from other major metropolitan areas? Just curious.
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nomadtoons2,
I'll check w/Mike. He may have been in some of those bands over the years. He's a very solid and versatile guitarist but he's an even better singer. High blood pressure and a less than understanding wife has sidelined him but he still is the guest of honor at the annual Elvis Impersonator shindig. Funny guy! Now he fixes pools and golfs 3 days a week.
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Nomad,
I lived in Oklahoma and suburbs of DC, so somewhat approximate to where you lived and where you'd like to live. And I'll take DC weather with it's high humidity/high temperature potential over Oklahoma's near certainty of its 3 month streak of nothing but 100 degree weather. The winters in Austin are probably nicer though.
I love BA weather. I can grow just about everything there except for peonies. I actually like torrential rainfall, I find it very dramatic against the skyline. -- having said that, I won't buy unless the prices become a lot more reasonable or there's some major changes to how California is run.
As I said, nothing wrong with Texas, just be aware of the downsides.
As for BBQ, I prefer Carolina BBQ myself.
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Astrid,
Are you referring to the NC vinager based Sauce? That's an age-old argument back home. People get all worked up over whether the red sauce of vinager sauce is better. I personally like both. Best BBQ I had in my life was in Asheville at a resturaunt right above the farmer's market called the moose inn.
Dinor, Ask your friend if he goes to the Memphis BBQ cookoff in July. They have Elvis impersonator day. One year, something like 10,000 elvis's showed up. The next day is "impersonate Miss Piggie" day- but you can't participate unless you're a man. Near my aunt's house is the Elvis Barber Shop- which has a large elvis shrine that activates when you put in a quarter through a slot in the front of the building. If he loves elvis- he has gotta go there!
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DinOR,
Home for me is Shanghai. Luckily, my parents already have a nice flat there. When I have a bit more money, I'd like to get them a vacation condo near Hong Kong, so they can winter there when they retire.
The land idea is just a way to lock in a nice property without overleveraging myself. I really don't want the risk and responsibility of carrying a nice home for 20-30 years til I retire. This scheme also allows me to build the perfectly shaped retirement home when I'm about to retire, rather than fix up a place someone else lived in for 20 years.
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astrid,
Um, you've never seen REAL torrential rainfall unless you've lived in the P.I! You have to "time" crossing the street and then make a mad dash for it! Rainy season in SE Asia is nothing like the rain we get in the PNW. Here, shortly after Labor Day (or during) the drizzle starts like a slow motion chineese water torture that turns colder until Feb. and sometimes sticks around until the 4th of July. Great...... In P.I the mornings are still, quiet and ample to get work done. Clouds form around 10:00am and around 1:00pm the sky opens up until 4:00 or 5:00pm. The clouds disperse and things heat up drying up everything to where you couldn't even tell it had rained. I LOVE the rainy season!
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nomadtoons2,
Mike has played and recorded in Nashville and Memphis, (Vandy grad) and I would visit when I could. Um, the guy's house is a "shrine" to Elvis!
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astrid,
MOST financial planners create obstacles any time a client brings up the topic of "raw land". Most rugus trash the notion, and I'm fine with that. If done in an IRA (yes it's entirely legal and possible) then it can be a wonderful tool b/c you could position the property (post bubble prices) and it makes your retirement more concrete. More tangible. I find that folks that have done this are more motivated to contribute to their savings and can put themselves in a better place b/c they don't have to break up their investments to buy some condo from their IRA and show it as a distribution all in one year.
NIA
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Dinor,
I looked into doing exactly what you were mentioning- buy a place somewhere else and rent it out. Bascially, you would break even. Hiring a management company to take care of it would eat up 30% of the rent, the rest would go towards the mortage and taxes. Im fine with that, but something like a fire occured, that could be an issue. Also- who knows what could happen in that area in the next 30 years? It could become a total dump, or turn into NYC, or DC, which I am afraid is what is going to happen to NC.
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nomadtoons2,
I didn't say that it was without risk! And I never use the "G" word, as in guaranteed. One thing I can say is that as long as there is a NYC and a DC there will always be someplace worse than NC.
I'll give you an example though. One guy here in OR bought an 18 acre parcel. He agreed to the purchase but asked the seller to break it up into a 17.5 acre parcel and a .5 acre parcel. He built his dream home on the .5 and his IRA owns the 17.5. This way, no conflict with the IRS and he assures he won't have any J.O neighbors to contend with when he fully retires.
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ryan,
If you liked La Nina you're gonna LOVE the PDO! nomad, hip him to it!
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Ryan,
Actually, I miss those crazy thuderstorms as well. We had a big yard, and there were times when it was hot as hell, sunny, and dry. then lo and behold, big, black, rolling clouds, lightning, then the smell. Then you stopped whatever in the hell you were doing and run for the house where you could sit and watch it go crazy for about 20 minutes. Then it'd dry up, blow away, then everything felt clean and new.
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DinOr
PDO?
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DinOR,
I would be looking for big parcels (20+ acres) in a rural location with old water rights or a high water table NOT ON A FLOOD PLAIN. Barring a Rhodesia type takeover situation, those places should keep their value okay. I'm not interested in urban lots. Shanghai is plenty urban and family togetherness for me. It's either one extreme or the other for me. If I live in a city, I want to live a city life. If I live in the country, I'll have my spread (and if necessary, my vicious guard dogs, electric fence, and gun collection).
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Okay, I do miss Oklahoma's summer storms. Dramatic lines of clouds going for miles and miles. But there's way too few of those in an otherwise HOT and dry summer. The grass there was green for only 3-4 months out of the year.
One thing nice about those hot summers though, the lakes are heated up to be just right for swimmming.
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Cooling for a 4000 sq ft, poorly constructed McMansion must be as much as the mortgage!
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astrid,
I like where you're going with this thing! Not sure about the dogs though but overall the idea is that, yes we all realize we're in a bubble. However; scrounging through the rubble after the bubble there will be some good values. Land is already correcting in a more meaningful fashion as witnessed by the "auction" in Port St. Lucie and the Treasure Coast in FL. Even if your IRA is modest you should well be able to put together terms that a seller will agree to here shortly. If you do outside of your IRA that's fine too!
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SQT,
Now there's one thing very few clients take into account. Utilities! They never go away. 1K per month? Does this guy run an aluminum smelter on the property? Our bill runs about $95 (even in winter).
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LiLLL,
PDO refers to a theory by the head weather guesser at UW. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation can spell a 10 to 20 year cycle of cooler and wetter weather for the PNW. After seeing the BA's last 2 winters it must start there. Hello Texas!
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newsfreak,
Clean & Green?
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SQT,
Heli-Ben mentioned something this morning about "financial literacy" while being questioned. Translation? Y'all on your own! My idea of a "dream home" is one that takes it's own garbage out and I get a check (not a bill) from the power company! What are some of these people thinking?
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newsfreak,
I have a good friend that lives in Verona, PA just outside of Pittsburgh and he now has the family farm. He's mentioned C&G on several occasions but I always took it to mean simply, rural. Now I know!
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SQT,
No kidding. The sorts of things people forget when they make big ticket purchases. The "oh, I didn't know 12mpg + 100 mile commute = PB&J" and "utilities bill + tax bill = liens." It's really pretty unbelievable that these people are trusted with their regular paying jobs.
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Clean and Green
I like the sound of that.
I'd like to put solar shingles on my next house. And radiant heat in the floors. MMMMmmm....warm feet.....
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SQt,
Sounds like your husband's client bought the sizzle, not the stake. And I quitely grind my teeth every time I see an entire hillside of McMansions! I saw an episode of This Old House and a family built a vac. home where all of the utilities were against one wall. During the winter they could set the thermostat at 40 deg. so nothing would freeze in this area and leave the rest of the house more or less ambient as it was "sealed off". Given it was in Vermont I thought it was a good idea. Then on weekends, they'd heat (or cool) the balance.
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stake = steak? In this case, about the same thing.
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I have thought about buying a vacation condo first. Prices are already dropping in an area of CA that we like very much called Imperial Beach, and I have considered buying a place there even before we buy a house in LA.
Imperial Beach is on the very southernmost tip of San Diego; you can see the Tijuana skyline from there. It is surrounded by gritty industrial areas, slums, and 40 year-old motels ("King Motor Lodge -- Color TV in every room!"). However, Imperial Beach itself is nice, it has no crime or street people, it is just surrounded by decidedly un-scenic areas.
Most SoCal beach communities have been yuppified. From Laguna Nigel all the way north to San Luis Obispo, there are nothing but million dollar homes, expensive restuarants with full wine lists, and aging Boomers driving Porsches and restored muscle cars.
Imperial Beach, however, is sort of stuck in a time warp. It is still a middle and working-class beach community. Families vacation there, there is lots of surfing and fishing; it is sort of like what Manhattan Beach and Redondo Beach were probably like 30 years ago. It's got sand, surf, and fun, but no wealthy Boomers.
I think Imperial Beach would be a perfect place for a weekend/summer home. The kids would love playing on the beach, and San Diego and its many attractions are right there, so there'd be lots of other things to do. It seems like a great place for family time. It would be more of a summer home than a retirement home, we'd probably want to retire to someplace nicer and retirement is still a very long way away. It would also be nice to have a place where our friends and relatives can stay for free when they come to CA, vacations can be pretty expensive when you have several kids.
Today you can get a spacious 2BR/2BA condo in Imperial Beach -- right on the beach, your patio opens out onto the Pacific Ocean -- for $450k. If prices were to fall to, say, $250k, I'd be sorely tempted to buy there even before getting a house in LA. It would be a real stretch -- a real stretch -- to afford two places, but perhaps it would be worth it.
I think it's only a matter of time before Imperial Beach yuppifies. In the San Diego area, it and Oceanside are pretty much the only old fashioned beach communities left. Oceanside is slowly yuppifying, and I suspect Imperial Beach will go that route too one of these days. Therefore, I am sort of tempted to get while it is still affordable; once the restraunts start offering wine lists instead of cheeseburgers and fried fish, it'll probably be too late.
I wouldn't do this unless I started earning more, but if that happens, man, it would be really tempting. And San Diego prices are falling faster than those in LA, so it could happen.
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Ed Begly Jr. lives across from my son's old elementary school. He does tours through his house and claims to create only a glove compartment full of garbage each week. Composts and recycles the rest. Has workout bikes that add to his solar storeage batteries...etc. Has a fence made from old milk cartons.
A little extreme....even a little weird....but I like weird....maybe I'd like Austin. :)
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astrid,
"12 mpg + 100 mile commute = PB&J"
Too funny!
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DinOR,
I'm in no hurry on a retirement land purchase. I'll probably poke after 2010. One reason I like raw land (actually, I'd prefer former sustainable farm land, but that's probably asking for too much) is that I have pretty specific and eccentric architectural tastes, so I'd rather build myself.
Long term capital gain is pretty low, so I'd prefer not to use retirement accounts for purchase.
Meanwhile, this is an excuse to take vacations to check out places. No way I'm going to buy a place and then find out that it's unliveable for 9 months out of the year.
As for vicious guard dogs...only if they're needed. Just in case I end up with white supremacist neighbors. :) I do want country dogs and cats though, to keep the rodent population down.
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Joe Schmoe,
Now were talking! While in the Navy we had an apt. there right off of Palm Avenue. The reason it hasn't been yuppified yet is b/c it was "sailor town" for many years. The officers tried to buy places in Coronado and the enlisted guys just rented in I.B. Great place, great strategy! Oh and in Coronado the "upper crust" used to have signs, "Sailors and Dogs Keep Off the Lawn". We thought about going back this past summer to show our daughters where the used to live and the hotels were too slummy for Mrs. DinOR but if that's what it takes to keep prices down (along with sailors) then more power to ya! PB* of course.
*Post Bubble
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Joe Schmoe,
This is just my opinion and not an informed advice, but I'd say wait a couple more years on the beach front vacation property. They tend to sink like a rock after every bubble cycle. Meanwhile, there'll probably be a lot of good rental bargains from desperate owners, so your family can sample the different beaches and pick one you really like.
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Astird, DinOR-
Thanks. Yeah, we will wait.
Forgive me if I am thinking like a flipper here, but one of the most interesting things about places like Imperial Beach/Oceaside/San Pedro (to some degree) is that they are among the few places in CA with true upside potential.
CA beach communities have slowly yuppified over the years. Manhattan Beach used to be a middle class community, and places like Dana Point were basically beachfront exurbs. You can tell that a lot of those places were originally middle class communities becuase the houses still have tacky 1970's siding, there are lots of public parks with playground equipment, etc. But over the past 15-20 years, all that has changed. Today there are precious few bargains to be had in beach communities. They are slowly yuppifying.
The thing is, I think that CA beachfront property SHOULD be expensive. It IS desirable, very much so. Accordingly, I believe that places like Imperial Beach will probably appreicate over time.
I sort of think that a place like Imperial Beach may be a good long term investment. One might even be able to speculate and make money there over the medium to long term. I mean, seriously, a 2BR condo right on the Pacific Ocean but still near San Diego for $250k seems like a real deal to me.
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DinOR-
When my aunt was in the Navy and stationed in San Diego, she and her roomate rented in Point Loma. Now THAT is a NICE PLACE. We went to visit her there in the mid 80's and I could not beleive how beautiful it was. LA is overrated in many ways, but San Diego really is all that.
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Goober-
Yeah, see, it is already happening. Oceanside SFH prices have skyrocked. A lot of those former timeshare condos are still affordable, but they really aren't suitable family homes. I think Imperial Beach will be next. Parts of Long Beach are already gentrifying, although it is so big that betting on Long Beach gentrification involves a significant degree of risk IMO.
I am fascinated by San Pedro. The part adjacent to Long Beach is extremely seedy, but not dangerous. The northern part is black -- the only black beach communitiy I have ever seen (the teenage girls all dress in surfing clothes, it is really something.) It seems like a prime candidate for gentrification to me, but there appears to be absolutley no activity toward that end.
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New thread: All About Renting!
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Joe Schmoe,
While in San Pedro please visit "Ma Walkers". It's a small place at the end of Gaffey Street right by Point Fermin. Coldest Coronas in town. Make an afternoon of it. In I.B there was a place right on Palm Ave. called The Little Bonanza, a dive to be sure but we never saw any yuppies in there. I've heard horror stories from folks that "bought" in Ensenada and Rosarito. Besides you could get a hotel room there cheap if you really wanted!
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How Farkley met Surfer-X the Bear:
apologies to parrotheads
Now, I ain't no drinkin' man. I tried it once, and it got me highly irregular -- swore I'd never do it again. But I promised my brother-in-law I'd go up and watch his still while’st while he went down into town to vote.
It was up there on the mountain where the map said it would be. But Friends let me tell you, it weren’t no ord’nry still. It stood up that mountainside like ... like a huge gold’n opal. God's yellar moon was a' shinin' on the cool, clear evenin' …. God's little lanterns just a' twinklin' on and off in the heavens….
I ain't no drinkin' man, but temptation got the best of me. I took a slash ... Wshew! Woah!
That yellar whiskey runnin' down my throat like honeydew vine water. And I took me another slash. Took another and another and another. 'Fore you knew it I downed a whole jug … and commenced to get hot flashes. Goosepimples runnin' up and down my body.
And a feelin' came over me like … somethin' I'd never experienced before.
It's like … like I was in love. In love for the first time. With anything that moved... animate … in-animate … it didn't matter. It's like there's a great neon sign flashin' in my brain sayin, "FARKLEY, THERE’S A GREAT DAY A COMIN’.”
‘Cause I was drunk.
Now I weren't, knee-crawlin', slip-slidin', Reggie-Young’in, commode-huggin' drunk. I was GOD’s OWN DRUNK, and a FEARLESS MAN…..
And that's when I first saw the bear.
He was a Kodiak lookin' fella 'bout 19 feet tall. He rambled up over the hill 'spectin' me to do one of two things -- flip or fly.
I didn't do neither one.
It hung him up.
He starts sniffin' 'round my body tryin' to smell fear, but he ain't gonna smell no fear. 'Cause I'm GOD’s OWN DRUNK and a FEARLESS MAN.
It hung him up.
He looked me right in the eyes. And my eyes was a lot redder’n his….
It hung him up.
So I approached him. And I said, "Mr. Bear, I love every hair on your 27 acre body. I know you got a lotta friends over there on the other side of the hill. There's ole' Rear Bear, Tall Bear, Freddy Bear, Kelly Bear, Jelly Bear, Smelly the Bear, Smokey the Bear, Pokey the Bear. I want you to go back over there tonight and tell 'em I'm feelin' RIGHT! You tell 'em I love each and every one like a brother and sister. But if they give me any trouble tonight, I'm gonna run every Goddamned one of 'em off the hill!”
He took two steps backwards and didn't know what to think. Neither did I. But, being charitable and cautious, well hell, I approached him again. I said, "Mr. Bear, you know in the eyes of the Lord, we're both beasts when it comes right down to it. So I want you to be my buddy, 'Buddy Bear.'"
So I took ole' Buddy Bear by his island sized paw and led him over to the still. Now, he's a' sniffin' ‘round that thing 'cause he's smellin' somethin' good. I gave him one o’ them jugs of honeydew vine water. He downed it upright (looked like one of them damn bears in the circus sippin' sasparilly in the moonlight.) I gave him another and another and another. ‘Fore I knew it, he'd downed eight of 'em and commenced to do the "bear dance." Two sniffs, a snort, a fly, a turn and a grunt. And it was so simple -- like the jitterbug it plumb evaded me.
And we worked ourselves into a tumultuous uproar, and I's awful tired, went over to the hillside and laid down. Went to sleep. Slept for four hours.
And dream’t me some tremulous dreams.
When I woke up, oh, there was God's yellar moon a' shinin' on the clear cool evenin'. And God's little lanterns just a' twinklin' on and off…. But my buddy the bear was a' missin'.
Yeah. You want to know somethin' else friends and neighbors?
So was that still….