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If there is anything truly unique about this housing bubble, it's the amount of information that is available to all of us who are interested.
Patrick.net posts links to news sites daily that gives us details on virtually anything any of us want to know about the bubble in our hometown.
This blog allows us to compare news and trade ideas on how fast/slow the bubble is bursting.
How do you think this incredible access to information is going to change how this housing bubble bursts? Is this bubble going to be less "sticky" on the way down because the average homebuyer will have quicker access to all the relevant data?
What do you think?
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People are very lazy as a whole regarding current events.
You could hand them the knowledge but most will demonstrate profound
ennui and disinterest.
I think for the astute observers (presumably us), near perfect, real-time information will serve us well and allow us to make better financial decisions.
Haiku time:
Housing Bubble Hippy
See the butterfly
So high away. Take a toke
As housing crumbles...
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Different Sean's website
what's SILSIH mean?
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Re: Hippy Haiku
I don't write the song
I just sing the tune...
:-)
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Different Sean's website
and I don’t think Surfer-X means the bong.
i think you're right. probably means a sherbet stick, they're quite nice....
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nomadtoons's website
I agree it's a psychological chain reaction going on here, and unfortunatly, housing is a very emotional object. The feeling I get from everyone these days are:" Oh crap, everyone's getting rich except me!", or- I wanna' have that old-fashioned American lifestyle."
I've noticed a rather recent upswing in new babies these days, and it seems to be from a lot of people who just bought houses. it's almost like a fashion show. Oh thank god! They just barely bought a house, have the golden retriever, and now since they're desperate to at least appear to be yappy-happy middle class apple-pie eating Americans, then why not pop out a few kids?The picture is now complete!They are soo privelages to be able to be able to pay for it, no matter how much it was. Thank god now they're safe, while all those poor sucka's that haven't bought have to be priced out. At least they aren't priced out... right?
I think people truly believe that the middle class is going to going out of style, and they had better get in on it or be one of two classes: rich or poor. Perhaps the news should report how much people are actually making. As I see it, people are not just trying to keep up with the joneses, they're trying to also keep up with the wealthy.
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Call me crazy, but I am glad to see all the bad news.
The "good times" (good for the Boomers, anyway) of the 90's and early 00's couldn't last.
50 year old tract homes are not gold mines.
Middle class families cannot afford $800,000 McMansions.
Finally things seem to be returning to normal.
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Different Sean's website
every week a new problem arises
jack abramoff, scott mclellan, wolfy -> world bank, etc...
Will anyone be able to fill Scotty's shoes? Who can master the art of "we don't comment on ongoing investigations?" Who has the stamina to repeat day after day, week after week, that Saddam "was a grave threat"? Who has the skill to weave the words "terrorists flew planes into buildings" into at least one question per briefing? The nomination floor is open.
Buh-bye, Scotty.
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nomadtoons's website
All I know is that when I mention the fact that RE has slowed, or that it could potentially even go down signifigantly in the BA to anyone that has bought, especially in the last few years, I get some very nasty looks, and even nasty replies. The common reply is that at least in the BA, there has never been a signifigant drop in RE ever. They are partially right to an extent, but I can't help but wonder what the implications of a runup in prices never before seen in BA history will do to those historical "facts".
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Different Sean's website
the new press secretary
who's the new guy, someone even worse?
i saw Mary Matalin in person on a newscast the other day, it's frightening how the irish have been denatured into something truly horrible, eveything that is sweet and good and feminine has been stripped away...
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astrid's website
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George,
As I understood it, much of Florida's speculation (as was the case in AZ and CA's central valley) was on pre-construction contracts. It seems to me that the home builders will be hit very hard by cancellations and back-on-market houses.
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Los Altos, CA
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Is this bubble going to be less “sticky” on the way down because the average homebuyer will have quicker access to all the relevant data?
I'm not so sure. It will be very interesting to see if available, immediate access to information changes the stickiness at all.
One one hand, it certainly affects buyer sentiment. Sites like Zillow, blogs like this and all the other bubble-blogs, and the ability to self-research probably will have a big affect on buyer psychology. As the bubble bursting comes on the radar of more and more people, the volume of Googling will increase, and I'd suspect housing demand will cool. This will probably be a faster cooling than previous episodes.
But as for sellers, I'm not so sure they are forced down the price curve any faster. There are significant fundamentals that cause seller price stickiness, not the least of which is pure and simple timing. Not all sellers are looking to sell at any one time. Some have flexibility, others just ignore the market and sell purely for life-event reasons. I'd suspect that new-home sales may be less sticky by a bit, but existing home sales will be just as sticky as they always have been. In fact, there's a good argument that the internet and blogs could makes sellers behave even _more_ stickily (is that a word?).
If I'm a seller in a down market I can use the internet, monitor blogs, get a pulse of market sentiment which I couldn't do before. Before, I had to rely upon my agent, who would do anything to get me to sell for their commission. Now, I can monitor this blog and get a better feeling for the "real" market; that is, the people to whom I want to sell. I might well be inclined to not sell until I perceive some change in sentiment, if at all possible. If I'm a FB, then likewise I'll just try to ride it out with some other exotic refi, or leave the keys on the counter top and head back East.
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HARM's website
People are very lazy as a whole regarding current events.
You could hand them the knowledge but most will demonstrate profound
ennui and disinterest.
I think for the astute observers (presumably us), near perfect, real-time information will serve us well and allow us to make better financial decisions
Yes. Technology can be a wonderful, useful tool in the right hands, but in the hands of a complete idiot...?
In the years leading up to the bubble's peak, I saw no evidence of people becoming any better informed, or improvements to their critical thinking ability (being able to USE information better). Whenever I would try to politely/meekly "educate" my perma-bull family members and friends about evidence of the bubble, typically one of two things would happen: (a) their eyes would glaze over, or (b) they would vehemently deny it and cite selective "evidence" --usually from MSM or industry articles-- justifying/rationalizing their own personal bias. Rare was the case when I won over any "converts".
Information may travel faster for those who know WHAT to look for and HOW to use it, yes. Unfortunately, the Internet has also enabled crap to travel much faster too. There is still no technological substitute for critical thinking ability.
Apologies in advance if this sounds elitist, but giving internet access to sheeple is like giving a blind man glasses.
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Different Sean's website
I already forgot his name, but someone from Fox News.
you ARE joking, aren't you?
no surprise fox cover rising fuel prices, you can't blame the govt for that -- at least not directly...
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Different Sean's website
-internet
+anarchy
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astrid's website
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Randy,
I don't know about communications. I simply see the fundamental numbers creating a lot more foreclosures this time around. Compared to the early 90s, the price to wage ratio is higher, the interest rates are trending up, there's a lot more risky loans and a lot more speculative activities at all levels of society. If prices even dip 10-20% for a few quarters, these people will be forced into foreclosure.
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nomadtoons's website
Just as online resources can be readily available to those who are pro-housing, so too is it for people like us. I suspect that as soon as the first big, red warning signs start popping up, the myriads of those on the fence, whom I think are a broad range if people will garner info from sites such as CL, this site, and others,stop buying cold turkey thus causing a dramatic halt to home buying faster than it would've been prior to online resources. The result could be a very rapid decline, causing a hard crash.
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astrid's website
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newsfreak,
I see a lot of people voluntarily quitting their jobs and go live with family/work under the table, just to get over the bankruptcy issue.
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Different Sean's website
Could it be that “getting the word out” on the bubble from blogs
yes, patrick.net has saved the world... once again...
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astrid's website
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skibum,
Good point! It's hard to be a bear alone in a sea of bulls, but with easily available online information and informed communities of bears, it is psychologically easier to resist the temptation of buying in and becoming the last fool.
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astrid's website
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Wow, slvr already up 6%