Patrick.net

I'm Too Tired To Think

By SQT15   Follow   Wed, 10 May 2006, 9:11am   4,798 views   272 comments
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I have come to the conclusion that it is impossible to suitably follow up on the last thread posted by Randy.

I do not have the economic chops to try, so I won't even attempt to fake it.

Besides, after reading this blog for more than a year, my head is swimming in all the stats, facts and predictions everyone has made. I can't decide what direction to go to next, and I'm too tired to try. Is that bad?

Besides, if we can post 401 comments on the "Duh" thread, we can talk about anything, can't we?

Most Liked Comments

1. Randy H Follow Befriend (5) 44 threads 4,602 comments Los Altos, CA Premium

   1   11:16am Wed 10 May 2006   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Protected   Conor, I like your "tipping point" theory too. That's a good metaphor for the conceptual simulation and algorithms we were brainstorming on my blog a while back. The idea is that stuff builds up, a lot of it not really internalized by the mass herd of sheeple, then all hell breaks loose. It's funny that in the last thread some folks were taking issue with my facts implying that I was supporting a "soft-landing" outcome. I believe that on 3/26 the title of my entry was More macro evidence of hard landing for US home prices. I'm still biased towards a harder, rather than softer, landing. And the problem with tipping points is that there isn't a lot of room for grey. My guess (and that's a guess, not prediction) is that even a little bit hard will be a lotta bit hard.

2. GallopingCheetah Follow Befriend 536 comments

   2   12:46am Thu 11 May 2006   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Wait. Beside Randy H and SQT, who else has editorial power here?

3. surfer-x Follow Befriend 23 threads 2,038 comments surfer-x's website

   3   4:27pm Thu 11 May 2006   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   The recent troll is same ole crap, shit coming out of the mouth, I say wipe and flush.

4. nomadtoons Follow Befriend 819 comments nomadtoons's website

   4   9:50am Wed 10 May 2006   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   I think that after all the finageling, fidgeting, discussion, predictions, assumptions, guesstimations, and blogging concerning the hopeful fall of housing in the BA, what will happen will happen, and what is happening isn't terribly drastic.What we're all teetering on our heels for is the dramatic soap-opera teleplay to reveal itself in all of it's full glory. The bad guys will get it in the end, and all the good guys gets the girl- or the house in this case.But what if that doesn't happen?It isn't really happening now. I see no bargains, and bargains to me means under 300k. Again- I'm not tying myself to this area. If the prices don't come down, I'll move. If they do, I might consider even though it'll still mean paying out the ass for overpriced property in an overpopulated state because as any realist knows, property will ALWAYS be overpriced here. Perhaps more would be accomplished by focussing not just on the BA, but other areas as well that might serve your intrests as places to live. In other words, use this opportunity to explore new regions and cities that can foster such new communties that will provide all that one could want without the silly politics of California. I know that I'm eyeing my chosen relocation areas with care to make sure they are still ideal in every respect. I see people here basically covering their asses. Making investments, saving like madmen, making choices to rent even after owning.All in the name of someday buying a home in California.It would seem to me that making more options available, like the possibility of other states should be included. You need not make your life revolve around a freakin' house.Most in this country would find some of the behaviour exhibited by some californians and their infatuation with houses scary. The way I can see it, prices may come down, but they'll just go right back up again in the next cycle, for if the foundation of the cause of these bubbles isn't fixed, then it will happen again, again, and again.It won't change with the climate as it is, with people so fiercly against any kind of new changes adopted in ownership laws. Ask yourself: Do you want to spend a lifetime fighting legislation, bubbles, and all that other crap that makes living here a royal pain? I know this sounds very broad, and yes- I too wouldn't mind staying, but only because moving in general is a pain in the ass. Just my simplistic 2 cents for now. Perhaps I redeemed myself earlier, but maybe now I have sunk bak into the pit. Just voicing my opinion on paper.

5. Different Sean Follow Befriend 2 threads 2,944 comments Different Sean's website

   5   10:20am Wed 10 May 2006   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   no, i was being sarcastic... just a few cliches for fun, altho the mainstream centrist paper here wrote an article to that effect recently...

6. DinOR Follow Befriend 1 threads 6,749 comments Premium

   6   10:51am Wed 10 May 2006   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   Conor, I kind of liked your analogy. For the longest time we've been spoon fed that it's ridiculous to think that the housing market can crash. There is no "national housing market". All real estate is local. Stock markets crash. Not housing markets! Well if we look back at the peak of the NASDAQ in MAR 2000 it took until almost OCT 2002 to find support. To find the floor. That's overnight? Believe me, I wish it had been. Over what, a 30 month period? I maintain that right now the HC is outpacing the NASDAQ and just starting to gain momentum! What would change MY thinking? Uh, well, uh...... nothing.

7. Randy H Follow Befriend (5) 44 threads 4,602 comments Los Altos, CA Premium

   7   11:20am Wed 10 May 2006   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   That said, wages are increasing at the fastest rate in 5 years; now outpacing the growth of new jobs. This probably means wage inflation, which would support rent inflation, which are critical components of any possible soft-landing outcome. I don't think it's enough, yet (what I read is that it will take 3 years of this trend to correct housing prices). But anything is possible.

8. DinOR Follow Befriend 1 threads 6,749 comments Premium

   8   11:48am Wed 10 May 2006   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   SGVPatience, 15K is 15K! What do want me to say? Even after things implode I would still exercise caution. There will be several "false bottoms" along the way but no, I don't have anything against making an honest buck. Since I've already weighed in on the "flipper issue" I would ask that any one contemplating this route to be considerate of neighbors while they are in the renovation process. Taxes will be due on STCG and it would probably best to at least form an LLC (which is another expense). NIA

9. Randy H Follow Befriend (5) 44 threads 4,602 comments Los Altos, CA Premium

   9   11:52am Wed 10 May 2006   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   SVGPatience, All my prognosticating and pontificating aside, you'll learn much more about what you might do (or shouldn't do) from the experts here like George, FAB, and Zephyr (if he delurks for you). I know very little about how to actually pursue Foreclosure deals. I didn't even know that a "short-sale" wasn't "selling short" in real-estate until last week. This is why I don't own residential real-estate as FAB does; I stick with what I know.

10. astrid Follow Befriend 15 threads 5,071 comments astrid's website Premium

    10   12:29pm Wed 10 May 2006   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   SP, "The vet explained that he has other darts that can drop a charging elephant in less than six steps, but he prefers to use gentler ones to reduce risk of permanent damage." What if the elephant is heading towards a cliff?

11. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    11   1:39pm Wed 10 May 2006   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   Should homes have urinals installed? I have seen that only once in an open house.

12. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    12   1:58pm Wed 10 May 2006   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   I spend at least twice as much time trying to wash the shampoo out of my hair using a low flow shower head. I bet people shave their heads out of frustration with their low-flow shower heads.

13. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    13   3:05pm Wed 10 May 2006   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   Peter P, how do you know this? I do not see shows like "Shinny Yellow Metal" or "Flip That Gold Coin" yet.

14. GallopingCheetah Follow Befriend 536 comments

    14   3:08pm Wed 10 May 2006   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   -I know +You know

15. GallopingCheetah Follow Befriend 536 comments

    15   3:12pm Wed 10 May 2006   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Thank you.

16. Randy H Follow Befriend (5) 44 threads 4,602 comments Los Altos, CA Premium

    16   3:24pm Wed 10 May 2006   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   I do not see shows like “Shinny Yellow Metal” or “Flip That Gold Coin” yet. Listen to more AM radio. Dumb money is going in. You can hear the gold-investment-expert right before the bigfoot sightings guy.

17. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    17   3:27pm Wed 10 May 2006   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   You can hear the gold-investment-expert right before the bigfoot sightings guy. But I have not heard statements like "gold always goes up in value" or "last opportunity to buy this 1oz gold coin for only $1000".

18. requiem Follow Befriend 337 comments

    18   3:34pm Wed 10 May 2006   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   If I were Bernanke I'd keep an 8-ball on my desk an consult it for answers to the stupider questions. "Are you going to stop raising rates?" "I'd like to direct that to our honorary committee member here... Outlook not so good, he says."

19. GallopingCheetah Follow Befriend 536 comments

    19   3:37pm Wed 10 May 2006   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   vi user.

20. requiem Follow Befriend 337 comments

    20   3:40pm Wed 10 May 2006   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (1)   You say that like an you're an emacs user. I like vi. Saves me having to use my nose to type those ctrl-alt-meta-hyper-shift combinations.