Okay, let's just disregard all the knowledge of economics, history, logic, etc.
So what if the market does exactly what David "Lerah" Lereah said it would do and continue to go up?
astrid
What if they're right?
By astrid Follow Thu, 25 May 2006, 4:54pm 2,207 views 74 comments
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Peter P Says:
If you think boomers will win, so be it. Design business models to profit from them.
Cocaine-coated adult diapers?
Led Zeppelin-branded walking canes?
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LILLL,
Check your mailbox for a longer explanation. There's two separate issues. One has to do with a possibly poorly phrased observation by me. The other is with my thread policing policy.
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So X…if I post on the Haha thread, you will delete it?
As long at it is pro-Ha Ha, regaling his magnificence, it stays, any anti ha ha blather will be deleted. Ha Ha makes a lot of money, he deserves this.
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SQT,
I guess I'm trying to gauge how we'd feel if the *worst case scenario* happens and if we'd still be able to live with the possibility.
I have my lottery winning scenario all plotted out too. However, my rudimentary math skills prevent me from actually buying a ticket. This is also why I make for a horrible Las Vegas tourist. Damn!
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LILLL, I sent it to your info@... box.
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John,
I know they'd notice and I make no attempt to hide it. However, there are just areas I'd rather my threads not go into.
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John-
I haven't posted many threads, but I will go back and delete the occasional spam that turns up in the ones I have posted.
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Image courtesy HARM-X ® Industries, Inc.
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Excellent! However, now I'm going to have Harris's leathery face in my nightmares.
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who is the woman next to Lereah? She needs a stylist to fix her hairdo.
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Katherine Harris
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katherine_Harris
I'm really shocked that she's only 49. She looks like hell.
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Once again I am going to be amazingly cliche'. After reading all of these posts, along with all the other topics we've discussed, I've determined that the best medicine for anyone in CA thinking of buying a home is to get in the car, pack some bags, get a few maps, and drive across the country. They should stop in a few towns, cities, and places in many diffrent states. They should look at how people live, where their kids go to school, and what cocktail conversations are like.
They should drive through neighborhoods, suburbs, and city streets. Then they'll find that outside the confines of the CA borders, none of the housing bubble crisis is ever mentioned. Why? because they don't have a crisis. This issue is only in a select few areas, and in most cases except california, is closely linked to a number of popular cities. Once people get that notion, then the stupidity and belief that housing is precious, limited, and worth paying a zillion dollars for will evaporate. Frenzied animals in small cages usually go bazerk.
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Panicearly,
I wonder who the target audience on that realtytimes article is. Who does he think will believe that pathos laden garbage? He is really saying he wants to "punch in the nose" anyone who gives advise to potential buyer that will cost a realtor money, regardeless of how good that advise is for the potential buyer.
Maybe it was just a bad stand up comic routine.
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panicearly,
What a load of crap! I read about half of it and had to stop. The best parts were about how that " owning a home brings people out of poverty." If I had more time, I swear I'd write that guy a reply because there's simple too much stupidity in that article to let it be passed off as ligitimate journalism.
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burbed,
Sorry, I got sidetracked.
You're right, that 5% increase will likely lead to people burning tires in the streets, chronic unemployment, gang problems, lots of people throwing their fists in the air, revolution, and so forth. Before you know it, there will be trustafarian kids with Free Mumia t-shirts on the streets and every other store will be a Jamba Juice outlet.
Actually, and I know this sucks for you and Peter P and my boyfriend(I think his rent is going up by about 7% this year), I'm actually okay with this in a macro sense. Rents have already dropped a lot from late 90s highs, and this could be the signal of an improving job market and more real demand, as opposed to bubble demand.
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newsfreak,
I fear not. Desireable parts of Wyoming got bidden up in the last ten or fifteen years. However, if prices can drop in densely populated places like Tokyo, there's still hope.
The last five years is just such a bizarre ride. I'm not that old but I certainly remember a time in California when people treated their house as a place to live and not an "investment." I just don't know how everybody just suddenly got amnesia.
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newsfreak,
The good thing with renting is that the price is only limited to term of the lease. As WWII says, response to higher prices is to pick up and leave. And if the prices go lower, yippee!
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I'm okay with speedos and midgets, as long as it's fully dressed and fully hypothetical.
You guys will have a hard time actually offending my sensibilities (I enjoyed Felix the Cat and the Cook, the Thief, His Wife and Her Lover). I just thought my small corners of this blog could do with a little less sexually explicit content, given the uproar that GC managed to stir up.
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The best thing I ever did was drive from Boston, to Tennesee, to California. There are miles and miles and miles and MILES of NOTHING. People in cities I believe tend to forget that the country is absolutly masive and for the most part, sparsly populated. I read some statistic that something like only 3% of the US is populated with residential construction.
That leaves only a few reasons as to why people feel they have to stay in crowded areas. One is sheer economic pressure. Jobs and education are in large cities. I can understand that. If you're a liquid xeon rocket scientist and the only company in the world is in San Jose, then you have little choice. But truthfully, most other jobs are exsistant in most other cities both large and small. Many of you are lawyers, and I can't tell you how many times I've driven into teeny-tiny little towns and pass by a small law office. Lastly, comes stigmas and attributes that people stick to other areas or the area that they live in. " The people are smarter here"- or- " People are more outgoing there." or perhaps loads of bible thumpers live in one area, and loads of self-righteous hippies live in another. That basically translates to the fact that no matter who you are, you want to live where people think-act-talk-walk-and eat like you do, and more than likely you'll pay a huge price if you have to just to have the privelage.
I view the housing bubble as one based in this stigmatism. "people will ALWAYS want to pay a lot of money to live here." - apply statement to your pick: NYC, SF, LA, Boston, Austin, ect ect.
This is to the most part true. Jack the rents, jack the RE prices, jack the gasoline because we'll pay WHATEVER it takes to stay... until we're run to the snapping point, at which I think we are. The reason is that as I mention every day, I hear and see people moving out of here to states like NC and TX. I can gaurantee that if you asked many of these same people if they would've considered NC 5 years ago, they would've thought you were insane. " Of course not- everyone there is racsist, the weather stinks, and they're too republican" would've been the reply. But now that the prices have left people with little choice, some of these places look downright rosy in comparison. So there they go in swarms, leaving california's shores leaving behind a sea of overextended mortage debters insanely rich fat cats, young folks ok with renting forever, and boomers with little to no retirement.
Perhaps in 10-15 years, the stigma attached to California will be vastly diffrent.
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SP,
I had the same kind of idea. I thought about putting a realty-looking sign in my yard, printing some fake RE company on the front with a weasly-fuck looking picture of myself holding my cat, then put on the front: FOR SALE! then in small letters below so they would have to get out of their car and looks would be: " housing bubbles" I even thought about perhaps putting a bubble blowing machine next to it for an even greater dramatic effect. My landlord would probably NOT be happy.
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SQT,
Yeah, I know. :-/ I was trying to be fair and consistent, and keep potentially offensive and prejudicial materials to a minimum. I figure if I want to put myself in a position to delete GC's posts, then I need to moderate stuff by more "acceptable" posters as well. And I try to moderate only what I think may be offensive and give a reason why I moderated.
(okay, and I do have a thing against the Jukubot because his primary objective is to blog-whore the futurist and he keeps changing identities)
I've moderated quite a few of Surfer-X's posts and he took it well. I really respect him for that. I hope I can respond with that level of equanimity if someone decides to take off my posts.
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SQT,
Your last two comments really brightened up my day. That's a great way to make lemons into lemonade. :)
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As for Katherine Harris. I guess she belongs the same camp of people as Joe Schmoe's former partner and the partner's wife. She was born rich and has pretty okay features, but then she ruins it with her big hair and her abuse of tanning beds.
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George,
I think for California, where the real price settles will determine who stays and who goes.
High prices = retirees who has an incentive to pass their prop 13 tax valuation to their kids
low prices = young families
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SP,
Yup, never underestimate the government's ability to appropriate.
Also, there's plenty of things one can do to respond to government fiscal policy changes, ie buying gold, Swiss bank accounts, moving abroad. The fool with some money will at least have those options. The fool who goes bankrupt will be left high and dry.
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BTW, according to wikipedia, Katherine Harris used to be a VP for a Florida RE firm. So using her picture on a faux realty ad seems to be fair use. It's definitely not defamation.
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George,
That's an interesting point indeed. Realtors are supposed to be fiduciaries of the buyer, like lawyers and managers (okay, so those groups haven't had a spotless record either), but in reality they act like sales people. While percentage of sale works for some principal-fiduciary situations, I think the principal must be relatively sophisticated, otherwise, an hourly fee system just makes so much more sense.
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goober,
I might buy that line of thinking if she wasn't wearing that heavy jacket. Plus, if she's gonna be in front of a photo-op, maybe she should have stopped at the bathroom first and brushed up. Her personal fortune + congresswoman salary should certainly buy her a hair brush and a blow dryer. If if her hair flops too much, maybe it's time to brush it down or tie it in a ponytail.
Also, sunscreen and hats are available, even to Southerners. Tipper Gore and the Gore daughters all have pretty big hair, but they look fetching and beautifully groomed. John Edward's daughter and wife are both Southerners, but they too manage to look attractive and not scary. To excuse Katherine Harris is an insult to all the well groomed and not scary tanned Southern women I've met.
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SQT: What future, upholstery or melanoma?
BTW, MovedToAugusta and MT, thanks for the recommendations!
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Actually, and I know this sucks for you and Peter P and my boyfriend(I think his rent is going up by about 7% this year), I’m actually okay with this in a macro sense.
Rent in local area can go up 20% - 25% a year for a few years. Moreoever, rent for SFHs can swing wildly.
I think the absolute number of available rental SFHs are not very high, the balance of supply and demand can swing wildly.
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What if they are right?
What if the sun does not shine?
I do not know.
Most RE bulls who believe in a perma boom will certainly be proven wrong.
Will there be a softer landing for some selected few? This remains a distinct possibility.
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goober,
Sorry :( I didn't mean to offend. But it's just really hard to excuse Katherine Harris, she could beautify her environment simply by wearing a Halloween mask or a burka.
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SP,
I do wonder about that. I've met plenty of conscientious and smart people in real life, and I know sales jobs pay great. So I wonder why more conscientious and smart people go into sales, since there's evidently a big demand for them.
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goober,
I'm not too purty either, but I think Ms. Harris could improve her looks 300% if she stopped visiting tanning beds, tie her hair back, and get some bangs to cover her forehead...and thousands of children would be spared nightmares involving her.
Hell, I'll make it even easier for everyone. Howabout passing a law that says Katherine Harris must wear a Sandra Bullock mask while she is seen in public?
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SP,
Thanks for sharing your observation. I agree that the ability to understand and meet other people's needs is a wonderful skill for most people oriented professions. I actually find that to be something that can be learnt.
What really amazes me is the ability of some people to project empathy and immediately put people at ease. It's always amazing watching these people work a room. And really wish I had that or could learn that, but it's probably a born skill.
I guess the other thing to remember is to resist being a shark, even though it is more effective upfront. That's actually a very tough thing to do, esp. when a person is relatively young and inexperienced. I know a couple engineering types who went into sales late in life and did pretty well. They're just able to project competence (since they were competent) and comparative integrity, and their customers really love them for it.
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SP and SQT,
Fabulous odes to K.Harris's ugliness!
I agree. Katherine Harris level ugliness takes effort. People just can't be born that ugly, they need money and hard work to get it, gosh darn it!
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"Well, my comments were referring to ugliness in a quasi-abstract sense - putting a name to it makes it uncomfortably personal…"
Sorry. And here I was, plotting to get a picture of Mr. Britney Spear onto Peter P's new thread, just so I can hear your ode to skeeve. :)
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I think I'll take K.Fed off. Shrinking K.Harris's image really reduces her scariness.
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Buffett finds parable in sale