No need to expound, it only goes up. This is temporary. I repeat, this is temporary. Wells Fargo thinks so, you should also. Buy more. Get in now before it is too late. It only goes up.
Oh, sorry, trolls need not post.
It only goes up.
By surfer-x Follow Sat, 17 Jun 2006, 8:07pm 4,075 views 193 comments
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yeah, there will be a bounce or support or resistance effect as prices drop, as all the people who were on the verge of buying will finally commit. the resistance will cause much self-doubt and wailing and gnashing of teeth on patrick.net, but ultimately, once all the stupid and desperate money is exhausted, you may well find a significant collapse in prices taking place.
there will be the 'reverse psychology' of the panic effect of 'i must buy now before prices go up even further' converting to the panic effect of 'i can't buy now, prices are about to crash, and i don't want to be the sucker holding the negative equity' -- so there will in fact be a de facto 'market boycott' as many people wait that bit longer to see if prices are going to descend that bit further...
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I almost choked on my food.
Good thing you brought your own food, they would have likely stuck you with a huge tab.
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Allah's website
It only goes up,,,very true! Inventory is going to keep on going up. Remember when they said, "They're not making any more of it"! That's a good thing because we have way too much of it already!
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There will certainly be price stickiness, that’s the nature of RE.
That may be the nature of RE in a REAL market....but not one that's built on no-money-down-interest-only-neg-am loans. Sure, they may try to hold on to the property and as the monthly payments grow ever so bigger they can try to sell to at least break even....but most of these are foreclosures waiting to happen!
We already are starting to break all time foreclosure records all over the country. The inventories are going to keep on rising and all the houses are going to vomit equity! Many people have accepted the ridiculously high prices and bought....when the bottom completely falls out (which by the way is starting to happen right now) many people will accept the new REAL prices. Right now RE is suffering from the "leaking can effect";the liquid inside the can (equity) is leaking through a hole in the bottom and the owner can sell for what is left in the can or he could get greedy and try to sell for the full price....but the longer the owner holds on to the can, the less liquid will be in it. When the can is completely empty, he is in foreclosure.
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A good agent will almost demand that the potential buyer make an inspection a contingency on the offer.
A good agent? Where? Where?
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Girgl's website
I wonder why my comment got censored. Am I a troll?
Hm. Whatever.
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In case anyone's wondering why DOM stays so low...
An email question I asked a realtor on a house that keeps getting relisted.
> Linda,
>
> I am interested in this house. However, it seems that
> on ziprealty, it keeps getting relisted even though it
> has been on the market for some time now.
>
> Why is that?
>
> Thanks in advance,
Realtor's answer
Thank you for your interest in my listing. Agents frequently relist a
property if there has been a price reduction, or if they are going to
have it on tour for agents again (which I did this week), or if they
just want to try to bring it to the attention of their fellow agents.
There is what is called a hotsheet that agents check daily that shows
all of the "new" homes on the MLS; when a property is relisted, it
automatically goes on the hotsheet.
I hope that answers your question. This is a very nicely updated home
with a terrific, large, private backyard that backs to open space. The
sellers are motivated to sell! Please call me if you would like to see
it if you haven't already. I have been having open houses most
weekends, but am taking today off because of Father's Day. However, I
am in the area if you would like to see it today. Just give me a call.
Regards,
Linda
--
Remember, I'm never too busy to make time for you and your referrals!
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Austingal,
(or anyone else in Austin).
Which part of Austin do you live in ? I am interested in exploring moving to Austin. I have 3 kids and good schools are very important for me.
I live in the Cupertino area (San Francisco South Bay). I can work remotely (I can move pretty much anywhere in the country where I get broadband connectivity at home :) ). I've lived in the Bay Area for 17 years now and would like to move. The Bay Area totally sucks if you have a family.
My main requirements are :
- Good schools
- Liberal community. I am South Asian (Indian). So a liberal, somewhat diverse community is important for me. I would not move to (say) Houston/Dallas, or most of the South East (because of concerns of racism/bias against foreigners - especially against my kids in school). But I hear Austin is quite liberal and progressive. Is this true for most communities in/around Austin, or are there pockets that are worth avoiding ?
You mentioned 300K for a starter home, now that would be quite a steal coming from the Bay Area. The monthly payment on that would be lower than the rent I pay here.
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You mentioned 300K for a starter home, now that would be quite a steal coming from the Bay Area. The monthly payment on that would be lower than the rent I pay here.
Property tax is more than 3% though. So a house of the same price is quite a bit more expensive. Watch out.
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Just to add to my own comment, from what I’ve been hearing, people from China (that’s PRC, not Taiwan) have been pouring cash into real estate here.
They are now pouring cash into real estate there. Moneyed people are never stupid.
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Sadly despite all the bust stories of Sacramento, etc… Palo Alto, Mountain View, Sunnyvale, Cupertino have largely remained untouched.
It only goes up here in the (nice parts) of the Pennisula and South Bay.
My dream location is an upscale neighborhood with horrible schools. I like to be around empty nesters (average age about 65). I am not too crazy about kids and I want my serenity. It must have trees and slow traffic. A view of the mountains is a big plus.
Any suggestion?
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Peter P says
"Property tax is more than 3% though. So a house of the same price is quite a bit more expensive. Watch out".
Thanks. Good piece of information to have.
Still, a move from CA to Austin would come out ahead. (home price about 1/3 or less of here) and no state taxes.
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Still, a move from CA to Austin would come out ahead. (home price about 1/3 or less of here) and no state taxes.
True. Just do not buy a 600K manson in Austin because it looks "cheap" :)
Have you considered Dublin and Pleasanton? It is too far to commute but it is still fine for occasion meetings (less flying).
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Huh?
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John Haverty Says:
"Ever think that excessive liberalism is intolerant? Ever think that’s the reason it sucks here, it sucks to raise a family here?"
Sorry, I just can't agree with that at all. But since our views are so divergent, we just have to agree to disagree on this.
Are you denying that sublte racism (towards foreigners) exists in the South East ? Are you denying that the degree to which it exists in Coastal California is less that the South East ?
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we don’t want people who commit felonies (breaking immigration laws) getting free passes and get out of jail free cards all the time while if you had a 15 round magazine for a pistol you would be thrown in jail for many years.
Many immigration violations are not felonies yet. But it is more effective to make hiring illegal aliens a felony.
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Racism is correlated with poverty, tribalism is a defense mechanism.
Absolutely true!
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surfer-x's website
Not to mention, as RE prices partly are tied to wages, and wages are also very sticky, that will be a factor.
I'm sorry but what the fuck does that mean exactly, "sticky" take san diegho, where an astounding amount of condos are coming onto the market in an already flooded market, how fucking exactly are the prices going to be "sticky". What happens when massive foreclosures start? Sticky? The only time prices would be sticky is when someone who has ~50% equity, who hasn't HELOC'd themselves into a new escalade, boat, trip etc, decides to sell because their specuvestor neighbor made _____ last year. And now many McDebtors haven't cashed out their house atm?
Sticky, maybe from all the realtors jacking off in their leased lexus' but otherwise the term needs to be retired.
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Sorry, I meant gooey. Prices will be gooey. In some markets, possibly chunky.:lol:
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In the last couple of years even younger folks without kids are increasingly heading back to India and China. One lady even told me with all these 20 year projections her kids stand a better chance of coming out ahead if they grew up in China than in the US!
I commend you and your friends, please pass the word that a better life is to be had back home. Why not move it your lifestyle is better?
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If you’re old enough, Rossmoor near Orinda might be your place. I think you have to be 55 to move there, though.
Too bad I am only 29. :(
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For less than $300K you can buy someting very nice…
Amazing!
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One lady even told me with all these 20 year projections her kids stand a better chance of coming out ahead if they grew up in China than in the US!
Will not be surprised. But will you eat sushi in China?
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BillF,
Thanks for the info.
Amazing what the average CA downpayment buys in Austin !
Need to fly out there with the family to check it out.
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Bap33,
Thanks for providing the amusement of the day :)
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surfer-x's website
S) no more 1/2 way houses, if you fuck up, you go live in your parents basement, first offense 1 yr, second 10 years. walla no more crime.
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Just got back from reconnecting with roots in Northwest Indiana, West Central Indiana, NW Ohio, but mostly SW Ohio.
All I have to say to those bemoaning how terrible CA is for all its liberalism is that your brand of Libertarianism, no matter how conservative, wouldn't fly back there any more than big L liberalism. Values back there are about conformity, and you certainly are not assumed to have a "right" to much privacy at all. Things haven't changed much in the decades since I grew up, except that people there are even poorer now.
But you can buy a cheap house there and get away from the big scary liberals. You know I actually had my 87 year old uncle explain to me that gas prices in Ohio are high (they're nearly the same as CA) because of gay marriage. This would just be a mere curiosity except that he is the chair of the county-wide district school board. I'm sure they'd love to have any CA refugees move on in though...oh wait. No, they wouldn't. I'm not even so sure I could pull off moving back anymore.
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Homeowners should think of themselves as the captain's of their ship. It is more noble for a captain to go down with the ship, than to abandon it before it sinks. This mentality should be stoked as long as possible.
Pressure from neighbors not to reduce the asking price too much should be kept on, in order to maintain property values. Keep letting sellers know that demand will be coming back soon. Homeowners with equity who are selling or not should be of the mindset that they are not going to give their house away. This mentality too, should continue to be stoked. Sellers who must sell or who are upside down, should hold out as long as possible and go down with the ship. A short sale, and tapping into a 401k to cover the loss would be bailing out. A captain would not dishonor themselves by doing this. These are the mentalities, I hope, the news media continue to promote.
This will create the maximum number of foreclosures possible, creating the largest number of stupid buyers to be taken out of the market for the next ten years. Their credit will be shot. This will also create the maximum number of foreclosures being dumped on the market at the same time, by banks. These two factors alone will cause the biggest and fastest drop in home prices possible. And the greedy boomer's with their big fat nest eggs will be cut down to size, as their equity shrinks, and still, refuse to "give it away".
This, in the end, will be of greatest value to average future home buyers, who just want to put a roof over their families heads, with their average salaries.
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You know I actually had my 87 year old uncle explain to me that gas prices in Ohio are high (they’re nearly the same as CA) because of gay marriage. This would just be a mere curiosity except that he is the chair of the county-wide district school board.
heh. the world's going forward in leaps and bounds, isn't it?
the hypothetico-deductive method never really took off in some areas...
welcome back, randy, things have been fairly quiet while you've been gone, nothing much happening... i think there were some reports of property crashing everywhere, but that's all...
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Just so you know…you’ve been dubbed Lord Randolf while you were gone…
oh yes, and you've been promoted...
all correspondence must now commence with:
Your Lordship, Keeper of the Faith, Guardian of all Noble and True Statistics of the Realm, Protector of the Royal Domain of Patrick.Net, &c, &c, Your Humble Servant Doth Beseech to Indulge Your Consideration of... [body goes here]
or just: To Whom It May Concern, depending...
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Bap33 Says:
jesus wept
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DS, I knew you would toss some poop my way. The bright spot is, you did it in less than 500 words.
i started to, but words failed me...
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Again OT, but might be useful.
What do you people think about FXE ? It's as close to investing in pure Euros as I could find. It gives a 2% yield, and pure Euro exposure, if that's what you are after. Rydex is going to come up with new ETFs to track many more currencies. I am interested in Canadian $, so I am looking forward to it.
Good way to hedge against US$. Of course, standard forex trading risks apply.
NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVICE. Not ANY advice whatsoever.
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but you said nice things about my writing :cry:
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Los Altos, CA
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Hi DS & LiLLL
Good to be back. I will say that I am a bit more disillusioned about the housing bubble after touring the deep rural Midwest. I saw people putting 3BR McMansions in rural Indiana on the market for $800K, and not with 50 acres either, just tiny little yards. I talked to old high school friends who think they've discovered the golden goose because they're flipping homes in little towns of 5,000 people making $10K per pop. People are using the same toxic loans as we are in the BA, second mortgages, negative amortization, interest only and all. There are still nice old homes for $150K, but they haven't been updated since 1940, have 1 bathroom for every 5 bedrooms, and about 20 cubic feet of total closet space. The biggest boom business is flippers moving into these old homes and turning them into faux McMansions with some cheap, creative drywalling and pergo, then trying to sell them for 150% return.
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Randy H Says:
People are using the same toxic loans as we are in the BA, second mortgages, negative amortization, interest only and all.
nothing good will come of it, i have a feeling in my waters...
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I believe realtors® are manipulating zillow the same way the manipulate the MLS.
it's somewhat specific to oz, but realtors have a trick like this at property auctions (which were very a common sales method before taking false bids became illegal). they can still take vendor bids ('dummy bids') as they please though, as long as they announce them.
if a property is passed in without reaching reserve, say at $500K, they take a vendor bid or bids from the air to close bidding at $700K. effectively, the vendor just bought their own property for $700K, whereas no-one was prepared to give them more than $500K for it in the market. what does this do? it means that when the results are reported in the paper, they can say the property passed in for $700K without selling, maintaining the impression to the public that properties are still really expensive, and keeping the conditioning effect of high prices going in the community. that way, other buyers will be grateful to get a place for $600K at auction next week, and they'll think they got a bargain...
you can see why governments implictly trust realtors in the important social task of allocating housing with minimum regulation and scrutiny...
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LifeLongRenter,
Check out Chapel Hill, North Carolina. It is probably the only place in North Carolina I would live. And yeah, I have spent some time in the South, I was stationed there for three years.
I went back with my Asian wife and everyone was very nice. Except for the antique shop where they had a picture of the Klan up, they were kind of frosty. But people are actually very nice in The South, much nicer than they are in the Bay Area. Just be polite when you visit. Politeness is a huge virtue there.
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nomadtoons's website
As someone from the south, who's lived in the Northeast, and California now for over 7 years, I have to say that denying there are diffrences between these regions would be ignorant. On the other hand, who would you want somewhere totally diffrent to be the same as the area you were moving from?
I hear it all the time: People from California just hoping, praying, wishing that Austin will be just as progressive as San Francisco, or that chunks of North Carolina are slowly changing into modern metros full of Californian expatriots. Perhaps one area has similiar weather. Maybe the people will tolerate you if you're gay. Maybe not.
This is wrong on many levels.When I moved to Boston, I never thought to myself: "Boy I sure hope there's some rednecks and good ole boys in Boston." When I made the move to the BA, I didn't hope for snow in the winter as it had in Boston. I walked into these places expecting nothing except for it to be diffrent than where I had previously been. This is where the biggest mistakes in judgement occur. You cannot move to another region and compare it to anywhere else. It is a totally diffrent place with diffrent people molded into a belief system they are accustomed to. I have no problem moving to a new place and immersing myself in their culture.
Prior to moving here, I had very little interest in politics, economics, culture, food, or any of the other bastions of liberal society. The main reason was that back home, the bigger concerns were about your family, community, and mowing your massive yard that grew a foot a day thanks to summer thunderstorms. After moving here, I learned all about politics( mostly from bumper stickers) food, of which I have sampled as many ethinic types as possible, and diffrent cultures from around the world. I can appreciate what people are into here, but when people here can't accept that there are people who are diffrent than themselves living lives that are just as sucessful in another state, it really frusturates me.
I watch people here basically waste half of their lives saving up for a small house, bitching about the taxes, bitching about the government, bitching about the gas, the traffic, the neighbors, the cost of living, the schools, and on and on and on.
Then they have the gaul to explain that everywhere else in the country just totally SUCKS and they're so lucky to have the good fortune of living in the BA, where the aforementioned problems above take more prescedent over the positives. Many states are simply lumped together as " red states."
I'm not going to say that where I am from is better than California. At the same time, Californians need to stop thinking that they are better than everyone else, because that's the vibe they give everyone.
I actually find it refreshing to go visit my family that lives in the sticks. It's nice to be able to experience the contrast, where shooting fireworks in the back yard is ok, where drinking cheap domestic beer is cool, and conversations that have less to do with poltics and more to do with silly stories.
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Randy H,
Glad to see you back. To echo newsfreak, the bubble's bad when people are flipping homes in rural Ohio, especially since it's a state with a particularly depressed economy overall. I guess this is the "rolling boom" David Learah was talking about a few months back???