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Here's your chance, have at it. The grumpiness level is rising. Longtime readers probably have sensed the subtle shift in discourse here at Patrick.net. We do have a lot more readers now, and this will only continue to grow as the correction proceeds. But us authors are also increasingly disagreeing over issues that before seemed minor, but now seem more fundamental. In the beginning it was easy: do you believe there is a real-estate bubble or not? But now debate is mired in details of sticky this, hard or soft that, or inflation/deflation the other.
So, take this opportunity to whack-the-authors. Let us know what each of the "on-air personalities" here does that annoys, disturbs or bores you. Is it Randy H's never ending econobabble? Or HARM's fundamentals fundamentalism? Maybe Peter P's metaphysical contrarianism? Surfer-X's descriptive suggestions to select commentors? Maybe even SQT's unshakable reasonableness pisses you off, or astrid's philosophical introspection. Perhaps it's just the daily digressions on sushi and kitchen knives...
If we can't laugh at ourselves then we'll never hope to improve upon the lot we've drawn. Consider it a roast. Help us to see ourselves as you see us. (Obviously, the definition of "Troll" will be a bit different for this thread. Feed surfer-X at your own risk.)
--Randy H
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Mountain View, CA
bank repo men
will they be Men in Black?
They would probably have ill-fitiing suits and no style
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bank repo men
will they be Men in Black?
More like Emilio Estevez and Harry Dean Stanton.
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will they be Men in Black?
In black helicopters?
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HARM!
Good one! At first I thought it was a "cut-away" to show the ample mag capacity, then in the write up you find it's real. I guess I was wondering why the hi-tech show and tell? A 1/4" slot or "window" might work just as well.
*not design advice
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Mountain View, CA
So when do you thik they are going to start calling? The MIB that is?
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A 1/4″ slot or “window” might work just as well.
It is made of plastic... I mean polymer. May just as well make it translucent.
It does look cool.
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Mountain View, CA
Okay, joking aside - when do you guys forecast the foreclosures?
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People are getting so worked up over that UCLA report. They had started changing their tune a while back.
I see a parallel. Greenspan first warns of "irrational exuberance". Then 3 years later says, "productivity gains" support the new valuations. Then just before the bubble is going to burst forever, says, "bubbles can be identified only in retrospect".
I trust my common sense far more than economists, analysts etc.
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http://www.dqnews.com/RRBay0606.shtm
Northern CA DQ numbers are out - we've got some negative YOYs.
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Peter P,
Oh don't get me wrong I like it and it may even be a nice safety feature as well.
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lunarpark,
NICE! Not only are some YoY median $$'s down, but every single BA county has YoY sales declines. Also, a side observation is that this data is confirmation of how much median prices are a lagging indicator - it's the outlying areas that continue to show median price gains. Santa Clara cty is the exception, although I bet if you broke it down by SJ and south vs. more established northern SCC the trend would be confirmed.
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skibum -
Yes, that is what I'm seeing - I've been tracking inventory in parts of SC County since last year. While Cupertino is only showing a slight inventory increase, other "less desirable" areas are showing large increases in inventory. I'm actually surprised by the small .3% gain in SF - could we see negative YOY in SF by next month?
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To BA or not BA,
Agreed! I'll admit the A/R and LA-Y response were anything but candid about the current state of affairs, but suprised? No not really. I firmly believe that so many in RE are convinced that we can not have an economy without RE as the primary engine that to lie in it's defense is not to lie at all! Who cares if the comments and observations don't make sense? If it "buys" us another quarter, another month until they can figure out their next 11th hour move then it was a "good lie". It's just another glaring and obvious sign as to how desperate things have become for them.
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T Lynch,
Before you go off and finish the last 10min of your daily workload, try this:
http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPSACB.shtm
The DQ site has all of Cali's numbers accessible via the left panel.
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Mountain View, CA
So I have a friend who I asked if she thought house prices would go down in our area (Mountain View) - she is a realtor - and of course she said - it never goes down in this area. For the sake of friendship I left it at that, but I'm wondering how many are completely deluded or just desperate?
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SP,
bated? I've seen it both ways so I wasn't sure which was more proper.
Anyway, has anyone else noticed that? I think we'll see many an instance where analysts and economists are willing to bend over backwards to give RE every benefit of the doubt. And why not? Since 69% are "homeowners" and if they can sign their life away for a mortgage they can potentially vote so where's the sin in trying to "protect" them.
Well gee, uh had you guys not contorted to craft and justify the bubble on the way up, would we be in this mess now? Some of the rationalization has come from blogs just like this one. Incomes will rise to fill the hole? Yeah, right.
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Mountain View, CA
"A lot of the angst, bitterness and stupidity seems to be caused by people thinking that they cannot have a home unless they buy a house."
For us, it is the fact that a landlord means: restricted pets; no painting and decorating; - wait a minute - this sounds like a good deal.......
I guess it galls us that we have to be careful of someone elses property and he could do what he wants with it (i.e sell) without consulting us.
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DinOR Says:
Anyway, has anyone else noticed that? I think we’ll see many an instance where analysts and economists are willing to bend over backwards to give RE every benefit of the doubt. And why not? Since 69% are “homeowners” and if they can sign their life away for a mortgage they can potentially vote so where’s the sin in trying to “protect” them.
A major flaw with MSM reporting of RE news is that more likely than not, the analysts and reporters own property, ie, have conflicts of interest in reporting and analyzing RE news. It's a fundamental flaw and one that's difficult to get around.
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skibum,
It would be pretty silly on my part to deny that! Maybe when we have RE analysts appear on CNBC they should have to disclose that they have an interest in real estate, (partially not kidding). Was it Ed Leamer (Anderson Report) that disclosed that he had sold his Los Angeles area home not long ago? Perhaps CAR brow beat him into making "atonement"?
I'm perfectly serious though, I'll bet right now housing bears are being coerced into "seeing the bigger picture".
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Surfer-X: Some great one-liners. Too often they're lost in a sea of fuck.
HARM: Much higher yield on the funnies along with good commentary.
Randy H: Maestro
Peter P: RH Sidekick. Needs more meat and less sushi.
Astrid: MIA
SQT: Sorry, I know I've seen some good posts from you, but during my usual quick scan read, your TLA (Three Letter Acronym) gets smacked with SP etc. I guess I haven't been reading long enough.
As a general rule, the quick repartee doesn't work as well for me personally as the 3-5 paragraph posts. WW2's heartfelt musings, DinOr's negotiation suggestions, RC's Free Market Position papers or JH's angry bearish commentary are usually more coherent and enjoyable than the quick back and forth banter. Randy's remarks are not obfuscatory. If you don't understand them, you should probably stick with Vanguard Investment Funds or ask him for clarification. He's always quick to reply.
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tsusiat's website
Sir Rick of Shmend Said:
"hey, I would highly recommend ‘Confessions of an Economic Hitman’. Its interesting because the author describes the tactics America uses on third world nations. It interesting because those are exactly the tactics they use on us!"
Thanks for the democracy.org link, I found the transcript very interesting reading indeed.
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Claire,
I'll take it that you've never been a "homeowner" then?
Take it from me, it's not all it's cracked up to be. From crummy neighbors that you are now stuck with to a whole laundry list I will spare everyone else from for the 569th time!
Let's just say that Oregonians believe in their "propitty rights".
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http://www.mercextra.com/blogs/realestate/
Mercury News now has a real estate blog.
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This is not really a complaint about the authors, but I would like to point out that some of you blame the baby boomers for just about everything.
I actually like the boomers.
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Mountain View, CA
DinOR,
Yes, we did own a property, but found it to be a real moneypit - we couldn't afford a perfect house, so bought a fixer-upper....
My husband took a job in CA because the pay was better, but we still can't afford a house, so we rent.
But I worry that our landlord (as happened to a friend of ours 2 times in 6 months) decides to sell and cash in and we have to move out.
BTW - just visited craigslist - didn't post - they are not civil at all, won't go there again. I much prefer you guys.
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We DO hold all the strings however - we own the best stocks, have the highest paying jobs, and bought our houses in the 70s, 80s and 90s. Prop 13 is more important to us than God.
True.
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Mountain View, CA
MercuryNews Blog - but whose side is he on?
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We DO hold all the strings however - we own the best stocks, have the highest paying jobs, and bought our houses in the 70s, 80s and 90s. Prop 13 is more important to us than God.
Hmm - don't know about the best stocks shit head. I had a good laugh after the tech bubble which was largely held by BB pensions. Your gloating makes me sick. Prop 13 is BS and everyone knows it. I am to come over to your house and plop a big brown turd in your gold toilet. As a non BB it is my intention to get back everything BBs have taken and more. Prepare for a rough landing mr bitch. Maybe not tomorrow but it is coming.
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surfer-x's website
Mr. Vincent, you guys are great, I love the Boomers, shit I can't get enough of the Zep, can you please tell us some stories from your still present past? I love hearing how ya'll changed the world. Man it must be nice to have the world cater to your every whim. Trouble getting it up so you can bang your 3rd trophy wife, walla, no problem we'll throw the weight of the pharma industry at it. No savings? No problem, debt = wealth.
Shit, The Who was so wrong, I hope I did before I get old my ass.
60 is the new 20. Party on my fiend you so deserve what is coming to you.
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>>bated? I’ve seen it both ways so I wasn’t sure which was more proper.
It's a common mistake. Your breath is bated, not baited, unless you've been eating worms.
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surfer-x's website
whooops -did
=DIE
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Different Sean's website
265 posts in 7 hours! (all working hours too, i note :P)
time zone's got me again, everyone is 'sausted and the thread is played out...
and i'm meant to be writing a nasty letter to the Minister for Planning... oh, and getting to work...
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>>Blog…hmmm….not sure what that word means. See, us boomers are not technically savvy as many of you have pointed out.
Well, I'm a boomer and I know that blog is a shortened form of weblog.
Don't forget that some boomers are nerds. ;-)
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>>Shit, The Who was so wrong, I hope I did before I get old my ass.
Hey, half the Who is dead. Half the Beatles too. Half the Beach Boys. You forget how many dead boomers there aren't.
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surfer-x's website
Man, what I love more than anything, and believe me here in $anta Barbara more than get your chance, is walking down the sidewalk and moving over my 1/2 but no more and when Mr. Vincent and his buddies approach I dip a fucking shoulder and knock them on their ass. Oh how fucking quickly a Boomer realizes their age when faced with a proper fucking ass whipping. You can watch the arrogance melt right out of them, it is quite fulfilling. A fat assed boomer bitch was approaching one day at the local You Crave Liquors, I was looking at Port, I said hello, she said "oh I wasn't looking at you", whatever, she goes into the cooler to get her overpriced chard and on the way out hits me with the door and replies, "oh I guess you didn't see me coming out". I looked at her and said very loudly, "I guess you should consider losing some weight off your big fat ass", she said "what"; I looked her in the eyes and said "get the fuck away from me". Equally as fat assed boomer husband says "is there a problem here". I recommend the following reply (oh be sure to twist your bottle of 20 yo port sideways in club fashion), "there is going to be if you don't back the fuck up". He decided not to play.
Fuck you boomers. I pissed of your fucking shit and I'm not afraid to pop you upside your fat arrogant faces. Oh, "I'll call the police" yeah fuck off, I have initials after my name and am well aware of what mutual combat means. For you boomer fucks it means that if you swing first, it's oh so fucking on. That's the beauty of the boomer fucks, they cannot accept anyone telling them to their faces "get fucked you fucking asshole".
Do it daily. I highly recommend it. Nothing, I mean nothing takes the wind out of their arrogant fuck fat asses like insults backed up with the threat of incredible violence.
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surfer-x's website
Mr. Vincent, you have not lived until you have beaten the fucking shit out of a mid 50's boomer fuck. I highly recommend it. Think of me next time your pushy fat fucking ass gets to thinking you are actually 20.
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surfer-x's website
But I digress.
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Mr. Vincent,
You are a vile piece of shit.
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>>Michael Anderson, ummm….ok…..yeah, I DO know what a blog is and many of my comments where kinda made off the cuff to rattle some cages.
Heh. My bad. Five people asked me what a blog was this week, so I missed your humor.
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RW,
Mr. Vincent, You are a vile piece of shit.
Come on, dude. X graces us with a Bukowski inspired vignette of sizzling rage, one of his best yet, and this is all you can offer in response to BB teasing? You're letting us down, man!
Vincent is right. Life is wonderful. Statistically speaking, we Gen-Xers have 20 more years of la doce vita than Cruise Ship Vince. The icing on the cake is that they're good years in strong young bodies. He can repent with healthy living all he wants for the next 10 years, Mr. V chief skill is his Keith Richards impersonation.
Watch the step when getting helped onto the boat Vince. Bon Voyage!