Watch
Here's your chance, have at it. The grumpiness level is rising. Longtime readers probably have sensed the subtle shift in discourse here at Patrick.net. We do have a lot more readers now, and this will only continue to grow as the correction proceeds. But us authors are also increasingly disagreeing over issues that before seemed minor, but now seem more fundamental. In the beginning it was easy: do you believe there is a real-estate bubble or not? But now debate is mired in details of sticky this, hard or soft that, or inflation/deflation the other.
So, take this opportunity to whack-the-authors. Let us know what each of the "on-air personalities" here does that annoys, disturbs or bores you. Is it Randy H's never ending econobabble? Or HARM's fundamentals fundamentalism? Maybe Peter P's metaphysical contrarianism? Surfer-X's descriptive suggestions to select commentors? Maybe even SQT's unshakable reasonableness pisses you off, or astrid's philosophical introspection. Perhaps it's just the daily digressions on sushi and kitchen knives...
If we can't laugh at ourselves then we'll never hope to improve upon the lot we've drawn. Consider it a roast. Help us to see ourselves as you see us. (Obviously, the definition of "Troll" will be a bit different for this thread. Feed surfer-X at your own risk.)
--Randy H
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T Lynch,
From an asking of $299,000 to comparable (if not identical) homes selling for 230K? Whoa! That's a 23% hit. "Do you know how much that hurts a guy?"*
Guys, this is why I'm not a fan of down payments. At least not anymore than is absolutely necessary than to get the deal done. 20% downpayment (which btw virtually no one does any more) foof! Kuh-rispy!
*Vin Diesel's line in the movie "Boiler Room".
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surfer-x's website
Claire, have you considered apprenticing with HaHa, he makes 160K/yr. Spread as much good juju as you can, counter the "it only goes up" crap with facts and data. You should familiarize yourself with the Chewbacca Defense and you'll soon see how ridiculous a 800K house in San Hosebag is.
Cochran: Ladies and gentlemen of this supposed jury, Chef's attorney would certainly want you to believe that his client wrote "Stinky Britches" ten years ago. And they make a good case. Hell, I almost felt pity myself! But, ladies and gentlemen of this supposed jury, I have one final thing I want you to consider. Ladies and gentlemen, this is Chewbacca. Chewbacca is a Wookiee from the planet Kashyyyk. But Chewbacca lives on the planet Endor. Now think about it; that does not make sense!
Gerald Broflovski: Dammit!
Chef: What?
Gerald: He's using the Chewbacca Defense!
Cochran: Why would a Wookiee, an eight-foot tall Wookiee, want to live on Endor, with a bunch of two-foot tall Ewoks? That does not make sense! But more important, you have to ask yourself: What does this have to do with this case? Nothing. Ladies and gentlemen, it has nothing to do with this case! It does not make sense! Look at me. I'm a lawyer defending a major record company, and I'm talkin' about Chewbacca! Does that make sense? Ladies and gentlemen, I am not making any sense! None of this makes sense! And so you have to remember, when you're in that jury room deliberatin' and conjugatin' the Emancipation Proclamation, [approaches and softens] does it make sense? No! Ladies and gentlemen of this supposed jury, it does not make sense! If Chewbacca lives on Endor, you must acquit! The defense rests.
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Mountain View, CA
surfer-x
Huh? Is that a compilment or an insult?
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surfer-x's website
Huh? Is that a compilment or an insult?
Claire, we do not insult newcomers ;)
Just trying to let you know that there are many of us that feel similiar to you.
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surfer-x's website
I’ve got 20 minutes worth of work left to do for the day, yet 3 hours still left to go.
Ahh the 20/3 rule, my friend works for the fed and it's 20/8
Nice. good times.
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Mountain View, CA
Check out http://www.sfgate.com
The top of the page "Elk Grove - Super Hot Spot"
Wonder if the author of that just bought a hous there?
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surfer-x's website
I'm 37% less offensive in person.*
*Not investment advice.
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surfer-x
I wasn't really insulted - I just never bother with the :-) signs, and I do not know the chewbacca defense well enough to work it out.
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newsfreak,
I couldn't take it and bailed, I was GS-11, but couldn't do nothing all day. I guess I'm not cut out for guberment work. I gave the job to my friend who is perfect for it. I should have stayed. But what is life if not filled with regret?
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Mountain View, CA
I've just had an idea - let's get Google and all the other tech firms to relocate;-) Then there'll be more housing available and no one with stock options to bid up the prices (here).......
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surfer X,
I don't know how much regret there could be. When I got off active duty military I felt the obligation to make my years "count" by transitioning to the GS side to "salvage" my career. Well I would have been about 5 years shy of a full retirement and they transferred the whole operation to FL. The days felt like an eternity. I still run into some of the folks that worked there and they just look and sound utterly defeated. I get depressed just talking to them.
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surfer-x's website
When we lived in Humboldt, geologists were a special class of people since there are so many faults lines ther I guess. Must have been alot of jobs for the USGS?
Not to mention all that weed, whoops, I meant hemp. You can make rope out of it.
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bikes2work,
Here's the CNN version of this same story:
http://tinyurl.com/z3nbq
It has the entire list of cities. Here are some bubblicious cities with population declines (these are over 1 year's time):
Boston -1.52%
Salinas -1.17%
DC -0.67%
Cambridge, MA -0.66%
SF -0.51%
Costa Mesa -0.51%
Oakland -0.46%
Glendale -0.42%
Here are some (+) population growth bubblicious cities:
Sacto +0.54%
Sunnyvale +0.89%
San Josebag +1.06%
Mesa, AZ +1.29%
Santa Clara +1.54%
Miami +2.05%
Santa Clarita +2.31%
Roseville +2.76%
Rancho Cucamonga +6.44%
N Las Vegas +11.41%
Elk Grove +11.57%
What's interesting to me is not the areas with growth, which are generally in regions without land restrictions for development (minus the Google sphere you see), but what's interesting is all the bigger bubble cities LOSING population. So how do these "fundamentals" support prices in these places?
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Mountain View, CA
Maybe the reason the population growth is declining is because people are cashing in and getting out. I have one friend who sold their fixer-upper in San Jose and bought a brand new (much bigger) house in Arizona, and had some change left over!
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Sir Peter P, Lord of Crustaceans, is also very fond of ceramic knives.
Actually I prefer steel. :)
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LILLL,
You know things are screwed up if your friend thinks it's better in Switzerland. Now there's a place where they truly are not making any more land. The wife and I went to a wedding there about 4 years ago, and I recall checking out some real estate listings in papers for the fun of it, since we were in a ski resort area (Interlaken, Wengen, Murren). We thought prices were expensive back then. Since then the dollar has declined against the Sui Franc last I checked.
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Who needs fundamentals when the realtors are still maintaining that the housing market is good.
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we made rope,
the invisible rope of the mind.
sshhhh - one of them evangelical bible thumpers might hear you....
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surfer-x's website
As my Dad believes, he almost lost his house a few years back because he doesn’t understand that taking out loans against your home is a bad thing.
Whaaaaat? Now this is bizarre, how can I be your Father if your Father is my Father? Just plain odd. Easily explained if we lived in the South though.
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I guess it would be good to mention that he has a nice sized arsenal of weapons, so it probably would have happened if the bank hadn’t worked with him to find a solution. Crazy bastard!
Sweeeeet!
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HARM's website
But he actually told the bank that if they try to foreclose on him they had better send the national guard cause there ain’t no way he’s leaving.
I guess it would be good to mention that he has a nice sized arsenal of weapons
Expect to see a lot more of this in the months & years to come. Perhaps the next bubble will be in guns & ammo. Better stock up!
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Robert Cote'
Your very accurate description of "Mom and Dad San Diego" deserved nothing less! It's just so hysterical to me that Ameriprise runs these repulsive ass smooching commercials about how the 60's generation was sooooooo unique and what individuals they were and it only took you about three sentences to sum up their intentions, designs and "bail out" plan. It was like, "hey I know these people!"
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My personal foreclosure "negotiation" tool of choice:
http://www.carnwyffa.u-net.com/GUNS/G36.html
It's too bad they're illegal here in the P.R.C. :-(
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Posse HELOC?
HELOC Posse?
Hang
Every
Last
Owner of
Crapboxes
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Newsfreak,
I approved your comment. Certain common spammer keywords will automatically trigger moderation, inlcuding: Paxil, Viagra, Zocor and Lipitor (and you used all four). Because CIALIS is also on the list, any post with the the word soCIALISm also gets moderated as well.
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Posse HELOComptus
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Mountain View, CA
drop in home values, but not in prices - perhaps they are refering to inflation
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Yes, I went to the doctor in Elko and he had a clock on the wall with the big V. Too funny.
Yes, we get innundated with plastic pharma crap all the time. At least the Viagra folks have a sense of humor. They've sent out calculators that "rise up" when you push a button, and retractable pens...
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T Lynch:
Inflation. It's as if the 5¢ loaf of bread your grandparents talked about still cost 5¢ today, only not quite so extreme. The price stayed the same, but the "value" dropped. It would be nice if the article used terms like real and nominal, but that's be too far above their target audience.
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PRC sucks!! I’d hate to live with 1.2 billion other people…bad enough I have to deal with the 300 million idiots in America!
T Lynch,
Are you being sly here ? ;-) P.R.C. = People's Republic of California. Or perhaps that should be P.R.K. (Kalifornia).
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ahahahahah it's the Chewbacca defense,
It just doesn't make sense, if value falls but prices stay the same how can there be a crash, it just doesn't make sense.
The economists cautioned that the projected dip in home values is not a decline in prices. They actually expect home prices in California will stay flat and inflation will push values lower. The forecast is for the state overall -- some areas may fare better, some worse.
But Brown, a 26-year veteran of the local market, recently cautioned that buyers who plan to stay in a home less than five years need to be careful. Real estate moves in cycles, he said.
Ratcliff writes that there are a number of variables that could still upend his soft-landing forecast, and even lead to a statewide recession. One is the potential for another large drop in manufacturing employment, another the unknown effect of the adjustable rate mortgages that became popular with buyers in the past few years.
Sounds a lot like talking out both sides of ones mouth. I hear capitulation. Nice usuage of the Chewbacca defense.
Value down, prices flat, doesn't make sense, walla soft landing.
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HARM,
What would the purpose be of having translucent mags? Just curious.
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Actually I have been to a few states where I felt like I should add, “I am speaking English here, excuse me?”
I felt that way in Boston all the time.
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One is the potential for another large drop in manufacturing employment
Or the potential for a large drop in housing employment?
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What would the purpose be of having translucent mags? Just curious.
Think of the translucent mag as the 26" Spreewells* for guns.
*Wheels with the stupid spinning middle part that continues to rotate when Escalade is stopped. Named after Latrel Spreewell, thugball playa best known for choking his coach when playing for golden state.
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But when you see all the spam that comes in from people selling pharmaceutical drugs, then you realize how important that spam filter is.
I'm thinking of adding the following to our blog's spam filter:
"_____ only goes up"
"they're not making any more of it"
"Everyone wants to live in _______"
"I know a guy who sold his house in ______ for $__,000,000.00 over asking."
"David Lereah/Leslie Appleton-Young/Gary Watts/anyone from Harvard says ________"
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The mercury news is a total rag of a paper. It makes the Chronicle read like Shakespeare.
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Mountain View, CA
From the Mercury news report....."Ratcliff writes that there are a number of variables that could still upend his soft-landing forecast, and even lead to a statewide recession. One is the potential for another large drop in manufacturing employment, another the unknown effect of the adjustable rate mortgages that became popular with buyers in the past few years."
I'm picking reason number 2 for a big bubble burst here!
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What would the purpose be of having translucent mags? Just curious.
Actually there is a pratical reason for this: you can quickly see how much ammo you have left without having to remove the magazine. Comes in very handy when fending off wave after wave of oncoming bank repo men.
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I just can't get past The economists cautioned that the projected dip in home values is not a decline in prices. Amazing.
Might as well have written, consequent contraction of the liquid was not sufficient enough to return the product to a post-manufacturing condition upon removal from storage*
In an actual report submitted to the FDA by a labmate when I worked for an evil German company.