Miscellaneous Forum
List your Real Estate/Economic Predictions here.
Millions of homes will continue to sit in limbo. Starter Homes and Fix’er Uppers will bottom in most areas by mid-year at 2.5x Median Income (discount from 3x Income due to bad economy and employment uncertainty and tough credit access), but “standard” suburban properties will continue to decline in price until they reach at least 4x Median Income, $200k in most places.
Retail Sales predictions will not pan out in January. Sales will be more or less flat relative to 2008. Expectations are very, very low, so “beating expectations” doesn’t mean much.
Gold to $1400 or more by the end of the year. Dollar Rally will end by mid-February, by April at the very latest.
S&P500 to decline to $1000 by April-May.
REAL Unemployment numbers (U-6 ex-seasonal adjustments, ADP’s numbers) not to improve until the late Spring at the earliest.
4 comments on “Predictions Thread - 2010”
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Joined: 18 Sep 2009
Posts: 60
Comments: 773
More Bi-Polar economic stories in our daily news.
There will be reports of adjusted last quarter earnings, along side sales at all time low.
GDP is up, Two major auto makers go under or get acquired by Renalt.
Home prices are up and so are mortgage aps, Obama is suing the banks for not lending.
Hell I think the Fed and Banks have got their groove on now. They are just learning this new system. And you know Goddamnit they like it! This is some easy money, they’ve been making money hand over fist all year. And as long they can continue like this they will indefinitely. For them the economy is fixed, well actually it’s economy 3.0, it’s nothing they nor we’ve seen before. But it affords them the ability to shuttle Billions and Trillions around the globe, it might not put a penny in your or my hands. But it makes them enough to pay back debts that would have taken nations years by the old system.
For lack of a better phrase, “We’re stuck in stupid”
and as long as they can get away with it, and the Fed chairman has to be “ASKED” to step down. Then this party is on!
Joined: 24 Aug 2007
Posts: 161
Comments: 2818
I predict that someone - a normal American - will rise to greatness when he/she takes part in a reality tv show. This person will experience a meteoric rise as a celebrity, only to hit rock bottom soon after and retire into relative obscurity. Only to take part in a “where are they now” show like Big Brother, and regain his/her career.
Oh - and I predict more foreclosures.
I’m sure that no one saw either of those coming…
Joined: 28 Apr 2007
Posts: 34
Comments: 106
It will be a tough year.
I think by the time 2010 is done, Iran get the bomb and Citibank goes bankrupt.
The government continues to props up market, prices stay mostly flat, or decline slowly.
No economic recovery in sight.
Joined: 18 Nov 2009
Posts: 5
Comments: 1371
Bellingham, WA
Bernanke does not abandon QE but doubles down with QE2, pushing 30-year fixed mortgage rates to 2.5%.
2010 Affordable Homes Act turns mortgage interest from a deduction to a straight tax credit, raises the FHA limit to $2M, sets required down payment at 2%, which is provided directly by the Fed not the buyer.
This results in a $750,000 property having a PITI of under $3000 and thus raises 2009 values up $200,000 across the board. And the housing market is saved as nobody is under water any more, not even Casey Serin.
Unfortunately, only the lower middle class and the middle upper class need to pay income taxes any more and the $1T deficit becomes $2T.