When will residential real estate hit bottom?


By RayAmerica   Follow   Wed, 17 Feb 2010, 2:42pm   59,013 views   956 comments
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Please do not comment about your local real estate market. Nationwide, when and why do you think residential real estate will bottom out and begin to rebound to the point where prices not only stabilize but actually begin to appreciate?

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  1. gameisrigged


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    877   5:55pm Wed 9 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    iwog says

    Wow, more Iwog obsession. I’m honored.
    I suppose I should make it clear when I’m talking about short term cyclical changes or a long term trend. It’s not really my fault since I’m responding to crap like “THE MARKET IS CRASHING!” when we get a 5-10% drop in the indexes near the end of every year, but I’m sure most people get it. It’s never my intention to “cover my ass” by claiming two things at once.

    Typical Iwog misdirection. What anybody ELSE allegedly did or did not say has nothing to do with whether your own predictions are incorrect or contradict each other. You weren't "responding" to anything when you predicted prices would go up; it was your own thread.

  2. iwog


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    878   6:32pm Wed 9 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected  

    gameisrigged says

    Typical Iwog misdirection. What anybody ELSE allegedly did or did not say has nothing to do with whether your own predictions are incorrect or contradict each other.

    Gotcha! "What are real estate prices going to do this winter" and "What are real estate prices going to do over the next 5 years" should receive EXACTLY the same answer!

    I only have one question. Do you now or have you ever understood what you were writing? I only ask because someone who claims what you did..............that the context is irrelevant...........can't possibly have any idea what anyone is saying any of the time.

    gameisrigged says

    You weren’t “responding” to anything when you predicted prices would go up; it was your own thread.

    Then perhaps I defined my own context. "I think prices will go down this winter then go back up starting January" is what I said and the context is so clear a caveman can understand it. "I think real estate will remain flat for 5 years" is also what I said and the context is so well defined a Republican can understand it.

    Any apparent contradiction is ONLY you trolling and nothing more.

    Even in the quotes YOU POSTED I make it clear!!! The first one talks about a few months during the winter. The second one involves years. WTF is wrong with you?

  3. gameisrigged


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    879   7:00pm Wed 9 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    iwog says

    gameisrigged says

    Typical Iwog misdirection. What anybody ELSE allegedly did or did not say has nothing to do with whether your own predictions are incorrect or contradict each other.

    Gotcha! “What are real estate prices going to do this winter” and “What are real estate prices going to do over the next 5 years” should receive EXACTLY the same answer!

    Gee, usually your strawmen have some sort of vague connection to the subject, but this one is just completely unrelated to what I said in any way.

    And again, "answer" to what? You STARTED the thread that said prices would go up.

    I only have one question. Do you now or have you ever understood what you were writing? I only ask because someone who claims what you did…………..that the context is irrelevant………..can’t possibly have any idea what anyone is saying any of the time.

    Strawman count: 2

    gameisrigged says

    You weren’t “responding” to anything when you predicted prices would go up; it was your own thread.

    Then perhaps I defined my own context. “I think prices will go down this winter then go back up starting January” is what I said and the context is so clear a caveman can understand it. “I think real estate will remain flat for 5 years” is also what I said and the context is so well defined a Republican can understand it.
    Any apparent contradiction is ONLY you trolling and nothing more.

    Prices will go up AND prices will remain flat. Nope, no contradiction there. Maybe you aren't clear on what "up" and "flat" mean? And then your usual deflection tactics: Call anyone who points out your errors a "troll". Wouldn't a troll be someone who just out and out fabricates strawman positions and then attributes them to others, like you did to me above?

    Even in the quotes YOU POSTED I make it clear!!! The first one talks about a few months during the winter. The second one involves years. WTF is wrong with you?

    So "flat for 5 years" doesn't mean the WHOLE 5 years? It only means whatever portion of the 5 years you choose? Why the fuck would you say "flat for 5 years" if you meant, "goes up and THEN stays flat"? And no, you didn't say anything about "a few months during the winter", you said prices will START going up at the end of the year or January at the latest. You said START going up; now you are trying to revise history as though you were describing only a temporary condition.

    This kind of mealy mouthed, say something and then back way the hell off garbage is the reason so many people have a low opinion of you here. You absolutely won't stand by any of the arrogant posts you make. That is unless by random chance something you predicted actually comes true, then you're all over it.

    Real estate will remain flat - unless it goes up or down. :D

  4. iwog


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    880   7:07pm Wed 9 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected  

    Wow, you wrote a lot without saying anything.

    I also said real estate would go down back in September. Do the math:

    Down a little + up a little = flat.

    It's also painfully clear that you have no idea what a straw man is.

  5. iwog


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    881   7:12pm Wed 9 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected  

    gameisrigged says

    This kind of mealy mouthed, say something and then back way the hell off garbage is the reason so many people have a low opinion of you here. You absolutely won’t stand by any of the arrogant posts you make. That is unless by random chance something you predicted actually comes true, then you’re all over it.

    I've stood by everything I've ever wrote. The total lack of examples by you is proof of that.

    When you have mentioned specifics, I simply clarified the context a little. It made you frustrated, but that's no reason to have a temper tantrum.

  6. gameisrigged


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    882   7:15pm Wed 9 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    klarek says

    His definition of flat is such that he’d call the housing market from 2003 to 2011 “flat”, like nothing ever happened.

    iwog says

    Down a little + up a little = flat.

    Wow, klarek - I thought you were half kidding, but you're right. Iwog actually believes up + down = flat. That is too funny.

    iwog says

    It’s also painfully clear that you have no idea what a straw man is.

    It's when you argue against a made-up position that I never took. Perhaps YOU don't know what it means.

  7. iwog


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    883   7:25pm Wed 9 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected  

    Yup. Up + down a little is a flat market.

    See the graph? See that flat area after 1st quarter 2009? Flat.

    graph

  8. tatupu70


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    884   7:28pm Wed 9 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    game--

    You realize that when someone says they expect the market to be "flat", that doesn't mean that median price or Case Shiller price will remain EXACTLY the same for 5 years, right? There will obviously be some up and some down during that time period.....

  9. iwog


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    885   7:32pm Wed 9 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected  

    gameisrigged says

    iwog says

    It’s also painfully clear that you have no idea what a straw man is.

    It’s when you argue against a made-up position that I never took. Perhaps YOU don’t know what it means.

    LOL.....like I said, you have no idea what it means. You said context has no relevance to the answer one gives. Shall I remind you?

    gameisrigged says

    "What anybody ELSE allegedly did or did not say has nothing to do with whether your own predictions are incorrect or contradict each other. "

    Now THAT is a straw man! You're basically interpreting my answers the way you want and then claiming the context was irrelevant.

    "The market is going up" cannot be understood without context. Next month? Next quarter? Next year? Next decade? Who knows. You certainly didn't care because you took two statements said in different context and pretended they contradicted each other. THEN you married this stupid analysis with whatever someone else was talking about at the time.

    Understand now? You ASSUMED the context the way you wanted, then you ignored anything that might contradict your disingenuous comprehension in order to be right. Very childish, but pretty much par for you.

  10. bubblesitter


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    886   7:46pm Wed 9 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    toothfairy says

    thomas.wong1986 says

    toothfairy says

    so higher inflation could take us back to the trend

    Yes, everyone is gonna get a 25% raise in salary/wages because of inflation.

    I’m just pointing out what it means when “real” housing prices are falling.

    So if there’s no inflation then prices will fall another 15%-20%
    (That’s usually not how it works thanks to government attempts to smooth out the cycle).
    sorry if it’s not what you want to hear but that’s just how it goes.

    Forces of nature applies to economics as well. So no matter what government attempts, prices will go down. Debt reduction has to happen, no matter what!

  11. lurking


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    887   8:04pm Wed 9 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    This is a dumb question. No one knows where the bottom is and no one will know the answer to this until it has already happened.

  12. B.A.C.A.H.


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    888   8:10pm Wed 9 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    toothfairy says

    So if there’s no inflation then prices will fall another 15%-20%

    Gasoline cost to jump $700 for average household
    By Tom Doggett – Wed Mar 9, 4:18 pm ET
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) –

    "...The average U.S. household will spend about $700 more for gasoline in 2011 than it spent last year, bringing total motor fuel expenses up 28 percent to $3,235, based on an annual pump price of $3.61 a gallon."

    The way I see it, dunno about "inflation" but we do have rising prices for some things, which means less money for other things. Like housing costs.

  13. klarek


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    889   8:24pm Wed 9 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    gameisrigged says

    Wow, klarek - I thought you were half kidding, but you’re right. Iwog actually believes up + down = flat. That is too funny.

    I wish I were kidding. He also believes that winter seasonal trends can happen during the summer.

  14. bubblesitter


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    890   8:34pm Wed 9 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    lurking says

    This is a dumb question. No one knows where the bottom is and no one will know the answer to this until it has already happened.

    Yes you can know the bottom if you wanna. I don't know what other people feel about this but start the price of a CA home from 1995 and keep adding average inflation(typical income increase of a person per year,IMO) to it up to today. Is it where the prices are now? No where close that inflation adjusted numbers in most parts of BA,Orange county and other so called fortress area. Once the income level starts supporting the home prices and banks feel comfortable giving loan to average person with good credit, that's where the bottom is....of course one can hide the reality behind the recent CS indices.

  15. gameisrigged


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    891   8:46pm Wed 9 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    tatupu70 says

    game–
    You realize that when someone says they expect the market to be “flat”, that doesn’t mean that median price or Case Shiller price will remain EXACTLY the same for 5 years, right? There will obviously be some up and some down during that time period…..

    You realize that when someone starts a whole thread based on the premise that prices are going to go UP, and then later says prices will stay flat, that it is a contradiction, right?

  16. thomas.wong1986


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    892   9:14pm Wed 9 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    iwog says

    There are actually three political movements in modern day America.
    Democrats
    Republicans
    Fascists pretending to be Republican. (wing nuts) Many identify themselves as the Tea Party.

    The only Fascists I see are the Left especially in Bay Area.

  17. thomas.wong1986


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    893   9:20pm Wed 9 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    lurking says

    This is a dumb question. No one knows where the bottom is and no one will know the answer to this until it has already happened.

    The bottom, the the fall in the stock market ?

    Fundementals! when your paying cash for highly liquid assets of your target investment.

    Cash for Cash!

    Housing ?

    Long term trend line... updated for Q4 2010...

    http://www.housingbubblebust.com/OFHEO/Major/NorCal.html

  18. gameisrigged


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    894   10:29pm Wed 9 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Stockton looks like a buy, finally.

  19. thomas.wong1986


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    895   10:44pm Wed 9 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Just look at the prior decades 80s-90s... and the rest will follow.

  20. toothfairy


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    896   6:23am Thu 10 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    FHFA graph do you even know what you're looking at?

    it only counts loans backed by Fannie and Freddie. Which is fine for low
    end Stockton but San Jose especially since
    in 2008 they raised conforming loan limit it now includes higher priced
    properties. So the numbers are skewed at best.

  21. maxweber


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    897   7:37am Thu 10 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    When this thread has been silent for a month! :-)

  22. RayAmerica


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    898   8:04am Thu 10 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    klarek says

    I wish I were kidding. He also believes that winter seasonal trends can happen during the summer.

    Klarek,

    With all due respect, I must correct you and stand up for Iwog. I think it's a sign of maturity, intelligence and character to admit when you are wrong. Iwog did not say what you claim. He did not say "winter seasonal trends can happen during the summer." You owe him an apology, and the sooner the better. "Faithful are the wounds of a friend."

    Thank you.

    PS: I just checked into this a little further. Iwog said winter seasonal trends can start in "August." August is a "summer" month. My sincere apologies are offered (not to Iwog), but to Klarek. I was wrong .... klarek is right.

  23. LAO


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    899   1:55pm Thu 10 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    tatupu70 says

    Los Angeles Renter says

    I call bullshit on this statement…. Interest rates have fallen a full percent! That and the huge stock market rally from 6000 have stalled a drop in housing. People went from losing half their invested wealth to gaining it all back again in the past few years. (My stock portfolio is UP since 2008 crash). They also can afford to buy about $30,000-$60,000 more house with interest rates at 4%. Yet home prices didn’t rise by that same variable… So someone that waited until now to buy were able to afford more HOME than the person who tried to buy a home in early 2009 at higher interest rates. I don’t know how you don’t call that effectively a drop in price. (If you were a minority all-cash buyer in 2009 maybe you got a better deal.. but that’s a fraction of the home buying population.)

    tatupu70 says:
    That is the dumbest post I’ve seen in a while. You don’t call it a drop in price because prices didn’t drop.

    Hey Tat,
    My statement makes perfect sense... Home prices for average first time home-buyers did fall if the monthly payment for those average americans fell! It's pretty simple...If you're rent drops from $1800 to $1600 a month... Then your rent dropped in price. The monthly payment is primarily what people calculate when deciding on affordability.

    THE COST OF BUYING A HOME ON A MONTH to MONTH basis dropped between 2009 and 2010 as interest rates dropped to near 4% from 5%.

    I don't know how you don't understand this translates to a drop in home prices for those who sign up for fixed rate mortgages in at 4% in 2010.. vs. those that bought at 5% in 2009? This is what stalled the drop in housing. Now that interest rates are rising again we shall see what the market can really handle....

    Should be an interesting summer buying season this 2011.... If interest rates hold steady at 5%-ish all summer... I"m predicting a pretty brisk market for Los Angeles area. If we climb to 6% I'm seeing up-front demand as rates are rising.. Then an avalanche of cancelled loans and hard stall out as rates settle around 6%.

    People are STILL maxing themselves out to afford in the Los Angeles area....

  24. gameisrigged


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    900   6:09pm Thu 10 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    toothfairy says

    FHFA graph do you even know what you’re looking at?
    it only counts loans backed by Fannie and Freddie. Which is fine for low

    end Stockton but San Jose especially since

    in 2008 they raised conforming loan limit it now includes higher priced

    properties. So the numbers are skewed at best.

    So Stockton isn't a buy?

  25. tatupu70


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    901   6:26pm Thu 10 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Los Angeles Renter says

    I don’t know how you don’t understand this translates to a drop in home prices for those who sign up for fixed rate mortgages in at 4% in 2010.. vs. those that bought at 5% in 2009? This is what stalled the drop in housing. Now that interest rates are rising again we shall see what the market can really handle….

    I guess I'm just old school. A drop in home prices is when the price of homes goes down.

  26. toothfairy


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    902   7:15am Fri 11 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Stockton is not a buy for me because there's nothing there. You can find good deals even in San Jose
    it just takes a little more work.

    i wouldn't base my buying decision on that chart

  27. zzyzzx


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    903   8:25am Fri 11 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    iwog says

    A famous example is right-wing nuts mocking Al Gore for claiming he invented the internet. It’s a lie, but that never stops anyone with an agenda.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Gore_and_information_technology

    I took the initiative in creating the Internet

  28. iwog


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    904   8:51am Fri 11 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected  

    zzyzzx says

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Gore_and_information_technology

    I took the initiative in creating the Internet

    That's fine but that's not the way it's reported on Clusterfox or any other neoconservative propaganda outlet.

    http://mediamatters.org/research/200912160010

    Here's a good documentary about how Fox and the RNC simply manufacture lies wholesale and no one in the "liberal" (that's another lie by the way) media ever calls them on it.

    http://www.dailyhowler.com/dh120302.shtml

  29. klarek


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    905   12:08pm Fri 11 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    RayAmerica says

    I just checked into this a little further. Iwog said winter seasonal trends can start in “August.” August is a “summer” month. My sincere apologies are offered (not to Iwog), but to Klarek.

    An honest mistake. Given his absurd explanation about the winter patterns warping several months back, one could easily assume that there's no way anybody would be dumb enough to say such a thing and I was making it up. But he did, that's how desperate he is to ignore and revise reality.

  30. iwog


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    906   12:57pm Fri 11 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected  

    klarek says

    An honest mistake. Given his absurd explanation about the winter patterns warping several months back, one could easily assume that there’s no way anybody would be dumb enough to say such a thing and I was making it up. But he did, that’s how desperate he is to ignore and revise reality.

    Do you know what a waveform is? I'm betting no.

  31. klarek


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    907   1:11pm Fri 11 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    iwog says

    Do you know what a waveform is? I’m betting no.

    Yes I know what it is. My background is in statistics, physics, economics, and math. Your condescension doesn't at all take away from the stupidity behind your arguments.

    Seasonal variation is predictable based on commonly recurring societal trends. Beyond that, it's statistically proven in a number of consumer and economic models.

    Tell me something, birdbrain, what would you think if a major retailer had devastating sales figures for a quarter that took place - say - in summer, and attempted to quell investor unease by saying it's "due to the usual post-Christmas shopping lull which happened to come earlier than usual"?

    That is how stupid your argument is. That's why RayAmerica assumed I was making it up, because he wrongly extended the benefit of doubt that you weren't that dumb.

  32. gameisrigged


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    908   1:14pm Fri 11 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    zzyzzx says

    iwog says

    A famous example is right-wing nuts mocking Al Gore for claiming he invented the internet. It’s a lie, but that never stops anyone with an agenda.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Gore_and_information_technology
    I took the initiative in creating the Internet

    What Gore said is true. The right-wingers claimed he said he "invented" the internet, which is false, and is something that Gore never said.

  33. RayAmerica


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    909   6:55pm Fri 11 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    The news keeps pouring in on housing, and it keeps going from bad to worse. The "bottom of 2009" is looking more and more like an old Twilight Zone episode.

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/03/five-years-of-housing-supply-and-5-or-6.html?source=patrick.net

  34. thomas.wong1986


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    910   7:38am Sat 12 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    gameisrigged says

    What Gore said is true. The right-wingers claimed he said he “invented” the internet, which is false, and is something that Gore never said.

    Example how sound bites dont work.

    "Invent" or "Create" which is interchangable was a poor choice of words.
    Had he stated.. "I took the initiative in creating 'legal framwork in Congress' regarding Internet" would not have been a big issue. But he overstated his contribution. Anyway the question was regarding his Demo Opponent Bill Bradly.

  35. thomas.wong1986


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    911   7:46am Sat 12 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    RayAmerica says

    more like an old Twilight Zone episode.

    Pretty much well state ... or more like Charlie Sheens soberity.
    Like a mass addicts getting off heroin and getting back to normality.
    It will take some time for the public to kick their irrational thinking regarding RE costs and deep inpact on all of us.
    But there will always be enablers like Iwog running around... hustlers and pimps!

  36. RayAmerica


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    912   9:09am Sat 12 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    thomas.wong1986 says

    But there will always be enablers like Iwog running around… hustlers and pimps!

    Don't forget, our little Duck friend has, as they say "feathers in the game." In human terms, that's "skin." He's one of those evil capitalists that just keeps on consuming properties in order to collect his evil rent profits, while poor, poor teachers are having a difficult time even buying pencils for all the chilren they gots to teach. I wouldn't be a bit surprised the name of his corporation is Daddy Warbucks, Inc. or something similar.

  37. gameisrigged


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    913   12:09am Sun 13 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    thomas.wong1986 says

    gameisrigged says

    What Gore said is true. The right-wingers claimed he said he “invented” the internet, which is false, and is something that Gore never said.

    Example how sound bites dont work.
    “Invent” or “Create” which is interchangable was a poor choice of words.

    Had he stated.. “I took the initiative in creating ‘legal framwork in Congress’ regarding Internet” would not have been a big issue. But he overstated his contribution. Anyway the question was regarding his Demo Opponent Bill Bradly.

    I think that's splitting hairs. It's obvious he wasn't claiming to have created the technology; he was claiming to have taken the initiative in allowing the internet to be created. The crux of the matter isn't whether there's a difference between 'invent' and 'create', it's the difference between "I took the initiative in creating" and "I created". Those aren't the same thing. I suppose he could have used more passive wording such as "I took the initiative in the internet being created", but what do you want? It was an interview, so he had to come up with something off-the-cuff (which he is much, much better at than George W. Bush, by the way).

    I mean, if I said, "Roosevelt took the initiative in building an atomic bomb", wouldn't it be fairly obvious that he didn't actually INVENT the atomic bomb, but rather put things politically in motion that resulted in it happening?

  38. RayAmerica


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    914   12:21pm Mon 14 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    I wonder what impact the collapse of the first time home buyer market will have on home prices? Maybe it's time for Obama to enact another "1st. Time Home Buyer Stimulus" con? The first two programs were abysmal failures, maybe the third one will be the charm? What do you think Duckie Dude?

    http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2011/03/07/report-first-time-buyers-fade-from-market/?source=patrick.net#blognav_next

  39. bubblesitter


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    915   12:44pm Mon 14 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    RayAmerica says

    I wonder what impact the collapse of the first time home buyer market will have on home prices? Maybe it’s time for Obama to enact another “1st. Time Home Buyer Stimulus” con? The first two programs were abysmal failures, maybe the third one will be the charm? What do you think Duckie Dude?
    http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2011/03/07/report-first-time-buyers-fade-from-market/?source=patrick.net#blognav_next

    Nah! Remember he said "money to buy the homes is already in the system","middle class does not matter" ? So investors will keep the system running without any expectations of decent return. :)

  40. RayAmerica


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    916   8:37am Tue 15 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Very good article on the "Double Dip in Housing." Take particular notice of the photo of the Polar Bear on his back. It contains a message for our friend the Duck.

    http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/as-house-prices-double-dip-pundits-debate-how-low-it-will-go/?source=patrick.net#blogtitle

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