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When will residential real estate hit bottom?


By RayAmerica   Follow   Wed, 17 Feb 2010, 6:42am PST   64,748 views   956 comments
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Please do not comment about your local real estate market. Nationwide, when and why do you think residential real estate will bottom out and begin to rebound to the point where prices not only stabilize but actually begin to appreciate?

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RayAmerica   Thu, 5 May 2011, 12:42pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 917

Attention Iwog .... it's now official. Housing has dipped below 2009 nationally. I guess you were wrong after all (as if we didn't know).

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42904204

klarek   Fri, 27 May 2011, 11:00am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 918

Iwog is taking a break. He'll be back when prices start rising again. Guaranteed.

Hysteresis   Fri, 27 May 2011, 11:35am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 919

i noticed bulls on other RE forums are posting less or gone entirely.

they were around for years and poof, suddenly gone.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   Fri, 27 May 2011, 11:37am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 920

Sometime after cannibal anarchy sets in and America dissolves into a couple of thousand theocratic fiefdoms, like sometime after 2350.

SubOink   Fri, 27 May 2011, 1:19pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 921

MyPunanyIsBiggerThanYourPunany says

i noticed bulls on other RE forums are posting less or gone entirely.
they were around for years and poof, suddenly gone.

That's because the bulls have all bought houses and have moved on to bigger and better...so a once a month read here is all that is interesting.

Hysteresis   Fri, 27 May 2011, 7:27pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 922

SubOink says

MyPunanyIsBiggerThanYourPunany says

i noticed bulls on other RE forums are posting less or gone entirely.

they were around for years and poof, suddenly gone.

That’s because the bulls have all bought houses and have moved on to bigger and better…so a once a month read here is all that is interesting.

no.

they had already owned houses when they joined the forums so that's not it; and they were around for years regularly posting about how housing was a great investment.

i suspect, instead, even they started to realize housing isn't the amazing investment they were bragging about.

klarek   Fri, 27 May 2011, 11:38pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 923

MyPunanyIsBiggerThanYourPunany says

i suspect, instead, even they started to realize housing isn’t the amazing investment they were bragging about.

Agreed. Hard to keep claiming housing prices are going up or that the bottom was two years ago when every month is a new post-bubble low.

Maybe they aren't posting these days because they sink every penny in their bloated, underwater mortgages and can't afford an Internet connection:)

¥   Sat, 28 May 2011, 1:28am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 924

klarek says

Hard to keep claiming housing prices are going up or that the bottom was two years ago when every month is a new post-bubble low.

Krazzykelly   Sat, 28 May 2011, 3:04am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 925

Realestate will recover as soon as the jobs return and excess inventory including shadow inventory is exhausted. My guess is 2013 to 2014 we will see small appreciation.

bubblesitter   Sat, 28 May 2011, 3:14am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 926

Krazzykelly says

will recover as soon as the jobs return

Nada. Jobs with pay that supports the bubble prices and even that is not enough, we need to see return of some kinda exotic loans, of course backed by tax payers.

¥   Sat, 28 May 2011, 5:24am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 927

Krazzykelly says

Realestate will recover as soon as the jobs return

This is the mistake the Obama economic-political team made in early 2010, that the jobs "would return" like the butterflies of Monterey.

They were even seeing the census-driven hiring as a forward indicator of job recovery. Idiots.

The economy of 2006-2007 was receiving TWO TRILLION of private debt injection EACH year.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=CZ

Notionally, that's supporting FORTY MILLION $50,000/y McJobs.

So yeah, dump $160B of new credit a month into the private economy and we'll see some broad consumer demand and hiring return.

Otherwise, we're going to slip into cross-default hell, right where we were in late 2008 and early 2009.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   Sat, 28 May 2011, 5:34am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 928

We need to get the jackboot of stalinist regulatory terrorism off of the throats of the financial services industry so that mortgage brokers can write yards of no-doc loans per minute and housing prices can double every week and America can return to prosperity!

FREEDOM is on the march!

MarkInSF   Sun, 29 May 2011, 7:26pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 929

ChrisLA says

you are right, exotic loans won’t exist unless taxpayers are on the hook for them.

ChrisLA,

You do realize that no option-ARMs or subprime loans with 2 year teaser rates had taxpayer backing right?

Do you care at all about reality?

jpd   Mon, 30 May 2011, 2:33am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 930

thomas.wong1986 says

Or when people learn how to make a deal. Ever watch “Pawn Stars” on history channel. Some guy waltz into a pawn store and thinks he can get $10K for some item. The owner laughs and says “not gonna happen, but I will give you $$2K for it”.

http://www.history.com/shows/pawn-stars/videos/no-stolen-goods#the-art-of-the-deal

Hey Thomas -- love Pawn Stars!

Have you ever seen "real estate intervention"? Basically the show is premised on the idea that sellers are priced wayyyy too high...and the intervention guy (Mike Aubrey) has to convince them (by showing comps, local prices, etc.) to drop their prices. He can be pretty harsh. :) Really a great show on seller psychology:


http://www.hgtv.com/real-estate-intervention/show/index.html

Usually I hate hgtv shows b/c they seem to be in bed with realty industry, but this one is great...

klarek   Mon, 30 May 2011, 2:39am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 931

That is a good show, probably the only one on that dumb channel that I enjoy. It is fun to watch people wake up from their delusional fantasies, and hear the sort of bizarre shit they use to form their mentality (this house/street/town is special, etc). I also like it cuz it is in my area, and there are TONS of ppl here who think it is still 2006.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   Mon, 30 May 2011, 2:43am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 932

My Realtor told me it is 2006 - and it's never been a better time to buy.

PockyClipsNow   Tue, 31 May 2011, 9:08am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 933

It appears to me that:

1. Most/All of 'Flyover' is at 1990's prices. AZ,NV, stockton, palmdale, etc.

2. Coastal CA is at 2000 or 2003 prices depending upon distance from jobs and how ghetto that area is.

3. THEREFORE it appears Coastal CA may in fact be following the lead o flyover down.

We are possibly headed for 1996 prices 5 years from now. It takes forever because the Feds have added 3-5 years to drag out the crash with HAMP,TARP, Loan Mods, cash for clunkers, cash for homes, etc and on an on.

The broke ass/underemployed squatters will eventually move to Vegas or Phoenix for the cheap rent. They won't be replaced by immigrants due to no jobs here. Also elderly cashing out is a LONG term drag.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   Tue, 31 May 2011, 10:04am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 934

In ten years, we will be back at 1972 pricing.

Then the oil runs out.

Food becomes 100x more expensive before it vanishes.

Then.

Cannibal anarchy.

FredEx   Tue, 31 May 2011, 10:04am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 935

I have read a few books that I tend to agree with (on a general level) and they are 'The Devil Takes the Hind Most', 'The Great Depression Ahead', and another that was about the stock market and that one escapes me right now. I think the economic chaos hasn't even begun yet. The following needs to occur before the housing market will stabilize...much less appreciate for any extended duration (a two-year of appreciation at minimum):
- Unemployment must decrease to below ~5%
- The many millions of bad home loans must be resolved
- Government entities (cities, municipalities, etc) need to go belly-up and re-establish (i.e. City of Bell, Compton, and maaaaaany others I'll bet).

My guess is we won't see stability til 2017. Really, my guess is the US housing market will become much like so many other developed countries. The majority of the middle class will need to resort to living with family and eventually inheriting a house because they will not have the means to buy on their own. I am a Realtor and the last three buyers have had to get (significant) help from family to buy a home here (in Southern California).

xenogear3   Sat, 7 Apr 2012, 9:45pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 936

What is really scare me is that Ben Bernanke keeps saying that no double recession during his watch?
He will print money to save it.

Now ALL banks will stop lending and get more free money.

We will get a double recession, and the second one will be as big as first.

Nomograph   Sun, 8 Apr 2012, 1:25am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 937

xenogear3 says

What is really scare me is that Ben Bernanke keeps saying that no double recession during his watch?
He will print money to save it.

What is really scary is the people who have been reading and following Patrick.net STILL have no idea what the Fed does.

HINT: The Fed doesn't print money.

xenogear3   Sun, 8 Apr 2012, 2:35am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 938

He is printing money during a meeting.

TMAC54   Sun, 8 Apr 2012, 2:53am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 939

Nomograph says

What is really scary is the people who have been reading and following Patrick.net STILL have no idea what the Fed does.

&feature=related

RentingForHalfTheCost   Mon, 9 Apr 2012, 1:07am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 940

Mr.Fantastic says

When is Stockton ever a buy? I guess if I was a gang member of latino descent.

In that case why buy at all. Just move into an abandoned foreclosure. There are whole blocks empty right now. Think of all the places to hide you stash.

RentingForHalfTheCost   Mon, 9 Apr 2012, 1:23am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 941

We will hit bottom when realtor commissions are not percentage based anymore. There will be a time in my life, when I will tell my kids about an organization once called NAR and the story will sounds very Mafia. Instead of breaking someone's knees, though, they just broke the savings of good families. It couldn't happen at a faster rate to me.

Rent4Ever   Tue, 29 May 2012, 5:34am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 942

Property taxes continue to rise at higher rates than inflation, in addition to the added burdens on towns to raise even more money because states are cutting costs and passing those expenses onto towns to fund themselves. The additional shadow inventory that is yet to hit the markets, the eventual rise in interest rates, growing student loan debts preventing 20 something's from buying until they become 30 somethings, and baby boomers just waiting to flood the markets and "cash-in" their homes to fund their retirements.

There are so many downward forces that have yet to affect the markets, we aren't even close to the bottom outside of Prime-markets in the US. I'm targeting 2018-2020.

Dan8267   Tue, 29 May 2012, 5:41am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 943

FortWayne says

To put it all in perspective, 1993 - everything was around 150-200.

Than bubble happened everyone decided their house is worth 1 million+.

bubble started going down, now everyone thinks their old shack is worth at least half a million or more. we got several years of this stupidity to go through before all the stupid money is out of real estate and finally back in economy producing something positive.

Quality Auto Repair Since 1979

So true.

duckhead   Tue, 29 May 2012, 5:50am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 944

“2018-2020.” Ahhh are you insane??? I’ll never be able to hang that long--- my rentals are eating me alive… er I mean…
HAHAHA! my Real Estate holdings will blossom into a DONALD TRUMP LIKE EMPIRE BY THEN while you pathetic renters wait forever to paint your walls any color you like!!! So sad.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   Tue, 29 May 2012, 6:01am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 945

Mr Duckhead,

Tell us about the refrigerator box in the alley behind your office trailer in Concord you rent for $1000 per *month*!

It is such an inspiration!

bubblesitter   Tue, 29 May 2012, 6:05am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 946

APOCALYPSEFUCK isFrank Sinatra says

Mr Duckhead,

Tell us about the refrigerator box in the alley behind your office trailer in Concord you rent for $1000 per *month*!

It is such an inspiration!

Well,it is like 200K fantastic one - with granite counter tops and rents for 2400/month - at least that's what the claim(boast) is!

Call it Crazy   Tue, 29 May 2012, 7:56am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (6)     Comment 947

Rent4Ever says

Property taxes continue to rise at higher rates than inflation, in addition to the added burdens on towns to raise even more money because states are cutting costs and passing those expenses onto towns to fund themselves. The additional shadow inventory that is yet to hit the markets, the eventual rise in interest rates, growing student loan debts preventing 20 something's from buying until they become 30 somethings, and baby boomers just waiting to flood the markets and "cash-in" their homes to fund their retirements.

There are so many downward forces that have yet to affect the markets, we aren't even close to the bottom outside of Prime-markets in the US. I'm targeting 2018-2020.

Ding... Ding... Ding... We have a Winner!!! Give the man a cigar!!

You Lowlife   Sun, 10 Jun 2012, 11:14pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 948

RayAmerica says

do you think residential real estate will bottom out

When prices reach early 1990's levels.

RayAmerica says

actually begin to appreciate?

Housing DEpreciates. Why would it magically stop depreciating and even more magically start going up?

FortWayne   Mon, 11 Jun 2012, 1:00am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 949

You Lowlife says

RayAmerica says

do you think residential real estate will bottom out

When prices reach early 1990's levels.

RayAmerica says

actually begin to appreciate?

Housing DEpreciates. Why would it magically stop depreciating and even more magically start going up?

In a free market it won't until price points hit reality. In our government ran economy it's going to be heavily manipulated until the wealthy cash out. Rich people play margins with real estate, and when things go down they either take losses, or wait for a bailout.

ArtimusMaxtor   Fri, 22 Jun 2012, 9:11pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 950

xenogear3 says

He is printing money during a meeting.

That can be controlled and the prices inflated so easily its obvious. First only a GD fool would trade Gold for paper to begin with. I have over 300,000 dollars worth of gold. I bought in the 70s for 30,000. I'm not selling it to any gold dealer understanding what they are doing. Very few people understand gold. They think its like pork futures or rye. Gold is a simple thing. Iron and bauxite are just a precious. Whats contained in them is not very complicated to me. However most people don't understand. Whats being played now is a game for fools. Gold unlike cash is not a measurement of time. Money is time. Time that is measured to favor someone else. Gold really belongs where it is. Taken by people who are greedy. Who don't realize there the trail of their destruction begins.

New Renter   Sat, 23 Jun 2012, 5:12am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 951

Go Ask Alice says

"When will residential real estate hit bottom?"

Simple.

When prices reach early 1990's levels, inflation adjusted. We're a very long way from that level.

Prices Are falling.

Word!

pazuzu   Sat, 23 Jun 2012, 5:44am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 952

Never. We have entered the new age of contraction.

The end of growth. A good thing since we have finite resources.

But the economic pain, including a house slowly declining in value forever, is part of it.

Call it Crazy   Sat, 23 Jun 2012, 6:13am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (5)     Comment 953

pazuzu says

Never. We have entered the new age of contraction.

The end of growth. A good thing since we have finite resources.

But the economic pain, including a house slowly declining in value forever, is part of it.

I believe there will be a bottom, we just ain't there yet.... Now, if I could find where I put my crystal ball, I would be happy to tell you when that will be....

KILLERJANE   Sun, 24 Jun 2012, 5:39am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (3)     Comment 954

12-22-12 shhh.

dannybsmith   Thu, 19 Jul 2012, 8:57am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 955

91604 (Studio City, CA) has 136 properties for sale. There are 527 Bank-owned properties in the same zip code. 527! And that's not even including delinquent borrowers. Studio City is a pretty ritzy area. I wouldn't look for a housing bottom anytime soon - MUCH LESS any appreciation.

FortWayne   Thu, 19 Jul 2012, 9:09am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)     Comment 956

No one is going to buy into a losing proposition. So RE won't start to appreciate until it is worth it to buy into real estate.

American RE market priced America out of it and hence you are seeing this prolonged slump. Slump of people who bought into it waiting for a bailout, dicking around with banks. And buyers obviously in no hurry to waste their money as there is no good reason to buy right now.

On a positive note, at least capital won't be tied up in unproductive real estate flipping and might move into business ventures.

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