Post jobs and track applicants with Jobbered, our Applicant Tracking Software (Advertisement)

San Francisco Bay Area Rent/Buy Ratios


By Patrick   Follow   Mon, 22 Mar 2010, 3:09pm   25,301 views   147 comments
Watch (2)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

San Francisco Bay Area rent/buy ratios from the housing calcualtor at patrick.net show that housing is still greatly overpriced in most zip codes.

The following average rent vs buy ratios were calculated by considering 97,537 rents and 58,171 asking prices throughout the Bay Area from January to March 2010, comparing properties with the same number of bedrooms and same single-family vs multi-family status. The results generally show that more expensive neighborhoods remain very overpriced, since annual rents are running at 2% or 3% of asking prices for the same size and type of house in the same location. Such low rents are not much more than property tax and maintenance. This means that in wealthy neighborhoods, the use of more than a million dollars in housing capital can be had essentially for free by renters.

Conversely, cheaper Bay Area neighborhoods now show some real bargains for sale, with annual rents running at 9% or 10% of the purchase price. Landlords are buying these places because they are clearly profitable as rentals as long as rents hold up.

A few zip codes such as Menlo Park are split, having both a poorer area and a richer area with very different rent/buy ratios. The average in this case masks large local differences. Zip codes with fewer than 10 rentals for each housing size category were ignored.

The hightest ratio was 14.8%, in Vallejo, making this area the most promising for new house buyers and for landlords. The lowest ratio was 2.1%, in the Berkeley hills neighborhood with zip code 94705, making this real estate the worst deal for buyers in the Bay Area, on average.

City Zip Ratio
Alameda 94501 3.5%
Alamo 94507 3.8%
Albany 94706 4.6%
Antioch 94509 11.6%
Antioch 94531 9.1%
Aptos 95003 3.9%
Belmont 94002 4.0%
Belvedere Tiburon 94920 2.8%
Benicia 94510 4.7%
Berkeley 94702 5.2%
Berkeley 94705 2.1%
Berkeley 94709 4.4%
Berkeley 94710 4.2%
Boulder Creek 95006 5.4%
Brentwood 94513 4.9%
Brisbane 94005 4.3%
Burlingame 94010 3.3%
Campbell 95008 3.5%
Capitola 95010 2.7%
Castro Valley 94546 5.1%
Castro Valley 94552 4.1%
Cloverdale 95425 5.1%
Concord 94518 6.7%
Concord 94519 5.9%
Concord 94520 9.1%
Concord 94521 7.2%
Cupertino 95014 2.9%
Daly City 94014 5.1%
Daly City 94015 5.4%
Danville 94506 3.4%
Danville 94526 3.1%
Dublin 94568 5.4%
El Cerrito 94530 4.0%
El Sobrante 94803 5.9%
Emeryville 94608 5.3%
Fairfax 94930 2.8%
Fairfield 94533 7.8%
Fairfield 94534 4.4%
Fremont 94536 4.5%
Fremont 94538 4.7%
Fremont 94539 3.2%
Fremont 94555 3.9%
Gilroy 95020 3.8%
Greenbrae 94904 5.9%
Half Moon Bay 94019 4.1%
Hayward 94541 6.5%
Hayward 94542 4.4%
Hayward 94544 7.2%
Hayward 94545 5.3%
Healdsburg 95448 3.0%
Hercules 94547 6.2%
Hollister 95023 8.5%
Lafayette 94549 3.5%
Livermore 94550 6.2%
Livermore 94551 4.7%
Los Altos 94022 2.7%
Los Altos 94024 2.7%
Los Gatos 95030 2.4%
Los Gatos 95032 3.4%
Martinez 94553 5.9%
Menlo Park 94025 5.3%
Mill Valley 94941 3.4%
Millbrae 94030 3.2%
Milpitas 95035 4.8%
Morgan Hill 95037 3.7%
Mountain House 95391 5.9%
Mountain View 94040 3.5%
Mountain View 94043 4.7%
Napa 94558 3.6%
Napa 94559 4.6%
Newark 94560 5.3%
Novato 94945 3.1%
Novato 94947 6.0%
Novato 94949 3.6%
Oakland 94601 10.1%
Oakland 94602 4.8%
Oakland 94603 10.6%
Oakland 94605 6.7%
Oakland 94606 6.4%
Oakland 94607 5.2%
Oakland 94609 7.1%
Oakland 94610 5.7%
Oakland 94611 4.8%
Oakland 94612 4.0%
Oakland 94618 3.2%
Oakland 94619 5.9%
Oakland 94621 13.8%
Oakley 94561 7.9%
Pacifica 94044 4.7%
Palo Alto 94301 2.9%
Palo Alto 94303 3.6%
Palo Alto 94306 2.7%
Petaluma 94952 2.2%
Petaluma 94954 3.6%
Pinole 94564 4.0%
Pittsburg 94565 7.4%
Pleasant Hill 94523 5.4%
Pleasanton 94566 4.5%
Pleasanton 94588 5.0%
Redwood City 94061 3.5%
Redwood City 94062 2.7%
Redwood City 94063 6.4%
Redwood City 94065 3.9%
Richmond 94801 12.9%
Richmond 94804 8.4%
Richmond 94805 10.4%
Rodeo 94572 6.6%
Rohnert Park 94928 6.1%
San Anselmo 94960 3.7%
San Bruno 94066 5.0%
San Carlos 94070 3.3%
San Francisco 94102 5.4%
San Francisco 94103 4.4%
San Francisco 94105 6.1%
San Francisco 94107 4.4%
San Francisco 94109 4.5%
San Francisco 94110 3.9%
San Francisco 94112 4.0%
San Francisco 94114 4.2%
San Francisco 94115 4.1%
San Francisco 94116 3.7%
San Francisco 94117 3.9%
San Francisco 94118 3.7%
San Francisco 94121 3.2%
San Francisco 94122 3.6%
San Francisco 94123 3.7%
San Francisco 94124 5.5%
San Francisco 94127 3.1%
San Francisco 94131 4.0%
San Francisco 94133 4.2%
San Francisco 94134 4.5%
San Jose 95110 4.9%
San Jose 95111 9.6%
San Jose 95112 5.2%
San Jose 95116 6.5%
San Jose 95117 3.7%
San Jose 95118 6.5%
San Jose 95121 6.3%
San Jose 95122 6.5%
San Jose 95123 5.8%
San Jose 95124 3.8%
San Jose 95125 3.9%
San Jose 95126 4.0%
San Jose 95127 4.7%
San Jose 95128 4.5%
San Jose 95129 3.3%
San Jose 95130 4.1%
San Jose 95131 4.3%
San Jose 95132 4.6%
San Jose 95134 10.4%
San Jose 95135 4.0%
San Jose 95136 5.2%
San Jose 95138 5.9%
San Jose 95148 4.3%
San Leandro 94577 5.9%
San Leandro 94578 6.8%
San Leandro 94579 5.6%
San Lorenzo 94580 7.1%
San Mateo 94401 4.3%
San Mateo 94402 3.3%
San Mateo 94403 4.1%
San Mateo 94404 4.4%
San Pablo 94806 8.8%
San Rafael 94901 4.0%
San Rafael 94903 4.7%
San Ramon 94583 4.5%
Santa Clara 95050 4.5%
Santa Clara 95051 4.6%
Santa Clara 95054 3.2%
Santa Cruz 95060 3.6%
Santa Cruz 95062 3.1%
Santa Rosa 95401 8.0%
Santa Rosa 95403 4.4%
Santa Rosa 95404 3.1%
Santa Rosa 95405 4.2%
Santa Rosa 95407 6.5%
Santa Rosa 95409 7.6%
Saratoga 95070 2.1%
Sausalito 94965 3.5%
Sebastopol 95472 3.3%
Sonoma 95476 3.1%
South San Francisco 94080 5.1%
Suisun City 94585 8.1%
Sunnyvale 94085 4.4%
Sunnyvale 94086 3.9%
Sunnyvale 94087 3.3%
Sunnyvale 94089 9.1%
Tracy 95376 8.5%
Tracy 95377 7.5%
Union City 94587 6.0%
Vacaville 95687 9.7%
Vacaville 95688 4.5%
Vallejo 94589 14.8%
Vallejo 94590 11.0%
Vallejo 94591 7.5%
Walnut Creek 94595 4.5%
Walnut Creek 94596 5.4%
Walnut Creek 94598 4.7%
Watsonville 95076 3.7%
Windsor 95492 5.4%

Permission is granted to the public to copy this article verbatim.

« First     « Previous     Viewing Comments 68-107 of 147     Next »     Last »     See most liked comments

  1. Rented through the downturn


    Follow
    Befriend
    33 comments
    Pleasanton, CA

    68   12:14am Thu 1 Apr 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Well, a colleague of mine just bought a condo in SF where the monthy rent comps were about equal to the monthly ownership costs.

  2. MarkInSF


    Follow
    Befriend
    14 threads
    1,118 comments

    69   1:17am Thu 1 Apr 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    SanMateoRenter says

    Well, a colleague of mine just bought a condo in SF where the monthy rent comps were about equal to the monthly ownership costs.

    Really? Could you be more specific? Not asking for addresses of course, but I would be very interested to hear general area and rent vs. ownership costs.

  3. pkennedy


    Follow
    Befriend (8)
    28 threads
    1,342 comments
    Redwood City, CA

    70   1:15pm Thu 1 Apr 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    @SanMateoRenter

    I think you've lucked out, as many rental places keep costs minimal by avoiding, deferring, or applying very cheap replacements.

  4. Rented through the downturn


    Follow
    Befriend
    33 comments
    Pleasanton, CA

    71   1:51pm Thu 1 Apr 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    I agree. I think it's the difference between renting someone's home and renting a "rental house." The latter will certainly have the problems you've described. Try to rent a place that was owner-occupied and just went on the market, but isn't selling. Or a place where the owner has just moved and doesn't want to sell yet due to the market, or is planning to come back in a few years. I've rented all of these scenarios and the key is avoiding the under-maintained rental homes. I think you can quickly sniff out those places. But the others are out there.

  5. pkennedy


    Follow
    Befriend (8)
    28 threads
    1,342 comments
    Redwood City, CA

    72   1:57pm Thu 1 Apr 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    I got one of those, it was pretty nice! But a total fluke.

    Only once! And it was from a realtor! Amazingly, they put up the WORST pictures on craigslist for this place, it looked like a total dump. When we got there, we just said we'd take it. We knew the next person who saw the place was going to grab it. It was 10X better than anything else out there. Unfortunately, I've only had that luck once! I spent a decent amount of time looking too.

  6. Rented through the downturn


    Follow
    Befriend
    33 comments
    Pleasanton, CA

    73   2:38pm Thu 1 Apr 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    I hear you -- you do have to search a lot. We've been very lucky -- three times in a row now. Though I do think, if prices become economical again, that our next move will be to ownership. But otherwise, we'll go for #4! :-)

  7. SiO2


    Follow
    Befriend
    3 threads
    189 comments

    74   6:39pm Thu 1 Apr 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    The SJ Mercury had a chart a couple days back which can help explain why prices have not fallen in "The Fortress" as they have elsewhere. Unfortunately I could not find it online, so please believe me.

    The highest unemployment rate in Santa Clara County was Gilroy, about 17%. Morgan Hill was 15. San Jose was 13.

    Cupertino was 7.1. Los Gatos was about 7. Los Altos, Saratoga, and Palo Alto were in the 6 range.

    Now, 6% unemployment is worse than it was a few years back, for sure. But it's a lot better than 15%. So there's fewer people forced to sell, therefore prices have not fallen the same way. Surely the lack of buy up market is going to prevent price increases but this factor helps explain why prices have not fallen as much in those places.

    SanMateoRenter, congratulations on a good renting deal. You seem to have hit the jackpot. Usually with rentals, they are one of the following:
    - long term rentals. Good point is, owner probably can pay the mortgage/tax from rent. Bad point is, appliances and stuff are low grade. But it's cheap which is important. I've lived in such a place, and it was the right thing for me at that time.
    - Recent rentals, such as "was owner-occupied and just went on the market, but isn’t selling." Will be nicer. Until the owner gets tired of paying more per month in mortgage and tax than he's getting in rent and sells or lets it foreclose.

    The best is to rent from someone who has a job assignment outside of the area for a few years and intends to re-occupy. Of course, by definition that's a limited-term deal which may or may not be desirable.

  8. Rented through the downturn


    Follow
    Befriend
    33 comments
    Pleasanton, CA

    75   12:07am Wed 7 Apr 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    MarkInSF says

    SanMateoRenter says


    Well, a colleague of mine just bought a condo in SF where the monthy rent comps were about equal to the monthly ownership costs.

    Really? Could you be more specific? Not asking for addresses of course, but I would be very interested to hear general area and rent vs. ownership costs.

    South of Market and mid 600's to buy (low interest rate) vs. ~3k/month rent.

  9. evs


    Follow
    Befriend
    2 comments

    76   1:40am Wed 7 Apr 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    Vallejo is a very dangerous city. It makes sense that it would top the rent to buy ratio. If you have to live in Vallejo, renting is clearly the best option, because you can always walk away from the property. But, if you own a house and can't convince a buyer that the guys hanging around dealing drugs and nice friendly neighbors, you have an asset that is not easily sold, and one that may take a serious price reduction to move. So, beware of basing purchase decisions on the rent to buy ratio.

  10. thomasmann6604


    Follow
    Befriend
    2 threads
    6 comments

    77   4:46am Wed 7 Apr 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Something tells me certain zipcodes will remain high for a long time on the basis of high incomes, high number of wealthy part-time residents, reversal of the flight to the burbs demand for living close to work and short commute distances is increasing), and/or high performing school districts. This will usher in a highly stratified society of islands of desirable areas and seas of impoverished crime-ridden crap. This trend is even more pronounced in the LA area. There are numerous "no-go" zip codes with dirt cheap real estate prices and then there are the still highly desirable zip codes that people fight to live in. As the "no-go" ares deteriorate the desirable areas will remain fairly intact with some spill over crime. There are very limited areas that are not "no-go" and many people will either endure the high cost areas or move away to another metropolitan area. Also look at Oakland, there is a HUGE disparity in prices of adjacent zipcodes and even areas within the same zipcode. Check out the disparity in prices between property in the "desirable island" east of 24, north of 580 in Oakland versus the prices outside this desirable island. There are many islands of desirability in seas of crap all over the Bay Area and CA.

  11. JohnTG


    Follow
    Befriend
    1 comments

    78   9:33pm Wed 30 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Doesn't Berkeley still have rent controls and wouldn't this skew the numbers there. If Berkeley were a free market I would think the ratio would be much more ownership favorable. The Elmwood area in Berkeley (94705) is very desirable and has very little supply of housing for sale.

  12. OO


    Follow
    Befriend
    1 threads
    3,248 comments

    79   10:32pm Wed 30 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    stocksjustgoup says

    Morgan Hill - 3.7% - Homes still massively overpriced, and some landlords are in la la land. I really don’t understand Morgan Hill sometimes. The schools suck, for the most part, and the commute in to north San Jose/Sunnyvale is horrible, too, although much better since they widened 101. It also takes forever to drive anywhere in Morgan Hill because they seem to have a signal light every ten feet, and they’re always red, it seems.

    Geographically, Morgan Hill is a part of West Valley. Did you check out the back of Morgan Hill on the west side? Stately mansions on multi-acres all the way to south San Jose's McKean Road, it is a very upscale neighborhood in the making.

  13. thomas.wong1986


    Follow
    Befriend
    16 threads
    4,426 comments

    80   10:48pm Wed 30 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    OO says

    Stately mansions on multi-acres all the way to south San Jose’s McKean Road, it is a very upscale neighborhood in the making.

    All built 10 years ago based on big stock options IPO cash outs. But as you can see havent had IPOs or big overvalued stock prices since. Its been the opposite we have shrunk in the number of public companies an back to more rational valuations. No Party like its 1999!

  14. OO


    Follow
    Befriend
    1 threads
    3,248 comments

    81   10:48pm Wed 30 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Not sure about whether one should buy or rent, everyone's expectation and circumstances are different.

    But I'd say the chart is a perfect illustration of crime rate distribution in the Bay Area. The rent/buy ratio is perfectly, inversely correlated with the crime rate of an area. I will never buy in Vallejo, Richmond even for investment purpose because I need escort of bodyguards to collect rent. Rent/buy ratio of 10 or above is a screaming sign of "STAY AWAY!".

  15. OO


    Follow
    Befriend
    1 threads
    3,248 comments

    82   10:52pm Wed 30 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    thomas.wong1986 says

    OO says

    Stately mansions on multi-acres all the way to south San Jose’s McKean Road, it is a very upscale neighborhood in the making.

    All built 10 years ago based on big stock options IPO cash outs. But as you can see havent had IPOs or big overvalued stock prices since. Its been the opposite we have shrunk in the number of public companies an back to more rational valuations. No Party like its 1999!

    It has reached a critical mass, all upscale communities are built this way. I checked out quite a few there, all paid with cash. Of course there will be some busts, but the place is inherently pretty, so I'd expect as time goes by, it will actually flourish to fully realize its west valley potential. Morgan Hill is one of the few places in the Bay Area where white middle class are displacing Hispanic illegal workers, who now have to commute from Gilroy or Hollister. Their schools are getting better, particularly at the elementary level as more white middle class with young kids move in.

  16. American in Japan


    Follow
    Befriend (28)
    149 threads
    1,398 comments

    83   1:22am Thu 31 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    I wonder why San Jose-95134 sticks out with such a good rental return % wise compared to the other San Jose Zips...

  17. OO


    Follow
    Befriend
    1 threads
    3,248 comments

    84   11:12am Thu 31 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Is 95134 East San Jose? If so, then crime rate explains the good rental return.

    There is no free lunch in the Bay Area, if the rental return seems too good to be true, then it is too good to be true.

  18. iwog


    Follow
    Befriend (48)
    274 threads
    12,577 comments
    47 male
    Lafayette, CA
    Premium

    85   11:55am Thu 31 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    OO says

    Is 95134 East San Jose? If so, then crime rate explains the good rental return.
    There is no free lunch in the Bay Area, if the rental return seems too good to be true, then it is too good to be true.

    95134 has a higher than average crime but not by a whole lot.

    My favorite zip code is Concord 94520 @ 9.1%

    Crime risk significantly lower than both state and national average: http://www.homefair.com/real-estate/city-profile/results.asp?Zip=94520

  19. FunTime


    Follow
    Befriend (3)
    38 threads
    801 comments
    San Francisco, CA

    86   12:46pm Thu 31 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    "The results generally show that more expensive neighborhoods remain very overpriced, since annual rents are running at 2% or 3% of asking prices for the same size and type of house in the same location."

    Patrick, I appreciate this site for its intent to use facts and reason as a basis for discussion. Your statement here shows a bias toward renting. I'm not sure what you mean by "more expensive neighborhoods" but the data suggests to me that annual rents in such areas are running at 3% or 4% of asking prices. Admittedly, as a resident of San Francisco, I might be showing my bias.

  20. Patrick


    Follow
    Befriend (54)
    5,191 threads
    6,158 comments
    46 male
    Menlo Park, CA

    87   12:48pm Thu 31 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Even 4% is a horrible deal for the owner. You're not going to get any mortgage at 4%, so you immediately pay more there. And then there's property tax, maintenance, insurance, etc. So the buyer gets royally screwed because the price is just way too high compared to the rent.

    I'm biased against losing huge amounts of money.

    Try the calculator for pretty much any nice neighborhood in the Bay Area and you'll see what I mean:

    http://patrick.net/housing/calculator.php

  21. FunTime


    Follow
    Befriend (3)
    38 threads
    801 comments
    San Francisco, CA

    88   12:58pm Thu 31 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Patrick says

    Even 4% is a horrible deal for the owner. You’re not going to get any mortgage at 4%, so you immediately pay more there.

    I agree completely. I just wanted to point out that 3% and 4% numbers seem to agree more with your list. Other people who read here might think the numbers not matching is an indication of bias and might miss all the helpful information here which will help them lead lives free of financial stress caused by lifetime debt commitments.

  22. tatupu70


    Follow
    Befriend (3)
    15 threads
    5,653 comments

    89   1:14pm Thu 31 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    uni6jon2 says

    Other people who read here might think the numbers not matching is an indication of bias and might miss all the helpful information here which will help them lead lives free of financial stress caused by lifetime debt commitments.

    I understand not wanting to overspend on housing, but you've got it all wrong here. If you buy, you have 30 (or 15) years of debt payments. If you rent, then you truly have a lifetime of payments.

    Additionally, when you buy (with a fixed rate) you establish some stability in your housing cost. When you rent, you are subject to more uncertainty in rental costs.

  23. pkowen


    Follow
    Befriend
    30 threads
    555 comments
    San Carlos, CA

    90   1:34pm Thu 31 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    tatupu70 says

    uni6jon2 says

    Other people who read here might think the numbers not matching is an indication of bias and might miss all the helpful information here which will help them lead lives free of financial stress caused by lifetime debt commitments.

    I understand not wanting to overspend on housing, but you’ve got it all wrong here. If you buy, you have 30 (or 15) years of debt payments. If you rent, then you truly have a lifetime of payments.
    Additionally, when you buy (with a fixed rate) you establish some stability in your housing cost. When you rent, you are subject to more uncertainty in rental costs.

    Oh for God sake. That 30 year timeline again. It just sounds desperate, really. I have yet to see a "bear" here ever advocate for renting "forever" or for 30 years. They advocate for not buying unless it makes fiscal sense on a reasonable timeline, like 5 years, the old standard. Why 5 years? Because more likely than not, you'll move within 5 years. If you buy an overpriced house and can't sell it - you are screwed.

    Or not. Just walk away like the rest of the jackasses who gambled and lost, and now cry "foul".

  24. FunTime


    Follow
    Befriend (3)
    38 threads
    801 comments
    San Francisco, CA

    91   1:35pm Thu 31 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Rent is much closer to a fixed cost than mortgage debt. There are almost no repair and maintenance costs. No taxes. No home associations. Rent can go up, but almost never has during the time I've rented apartments and houses in Portland, OR and San Francisco.

    I just know that I'm glad I've not had to absorb the cost of all the repairs/maintenance needed during the time I've rented.

    The main reason to buy is recognizing that you are unable to save money any other way. People find it so difficult to save money, that they accept the tiny amounts of money that can be saved by buying a house and paying incredible amounts of money to the lender. It sets up a regular payment system for them, of which they get a tiny amount back near the end of their life. If you're going to live a lifetime of debt, might as well do it all in one big chunk where, at least, you'll get a little back.

    Up to you whether you consider thirty years "a lifetime." That's a good chunk. Fifteen years is definitely a much more reasonable balance of how a person spends their life versus how much interest they pay to lenders. I'm happy to have lived, so far, exactly where I want to live and spend my time.

    Thankfully, I've always found it easier than others to budget my actual money/income and save some of it. So I'll rent until I know there's a house for sale exactly where I want to live for a price that does not mean spending a multiple of my income in interest.

  25. Rented through the downturn


    Follow
    Befriend
    33 comments
    Pleasanton, CA

    92   2:00pm Thu 31 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Thought I'd jump in on this one, particularly because my handle is going to be changing soon. After many years successfully renting very nice homes for half the cost of buying, and being an ardent supporter of renting and opponent of buying in places where the costs are ridiculously out of line with renting (eg. Palo Alto) we're about to close escrow on a house -- in one of the very nice tri-valley areas of the East Bay. More and more people are seeing the value there...

    The economics are interesting because while the annual rental to purchase price ratio will be about 4.2%, the neighborhood is very desirable, has top schools, very low turn-over, with people living there for many, many years, and therefore, very little inventory. And given our loan is at 4.75% for 30-years fixed, even the infamous NYT calculator says that we'll be ahead in just 5-6 years assuming normal inflation levels. With 0% house appreciation, we'd still be ahead in 20 years due to rent increases and such. And we are planning on living in this home for some 20+ years, so I'm banking on the fact that as more inflation creeps back, our debt will go down in real terms, and home prices will ultimately be flat to up over 20 years. Rents will go up in both real and nominal terms over that time too.

    And owning a house will give us the long-term stability we couldn't get renting houses. So it was the right time for us, and it looks like a reasonable enough deal to make sense now.

    Now I won't be living in the iwog world, and will still sneer at the 2.5% ratios in places like P.A., but I will have joined the owner side of the world... :-)

  26. tatupu70


    Follow
    Befriend (3)
    15 threads
    5,653 comments

    93   2:02pm Thu 31 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    pkowen says

    Oh for God sake. That 30 year timeline again. It just sounds desperate, really. I have yet to see a “bear” here ever advocate for renting “forever” or for 30 years. They advocate for not buying unless it makes fiscal sense on a reasonable timeline, like 5 years, the old standard. Why 5 years? Because more likely than not, you’ll move within 5 years. If you buy an overpriced house and can’t sell it - you are screwed.

    Did you read the post I was answering?

  27. EBGuy


    Follow
    Befriend
    4 threads
    2,099 comments

    94   2:07pm Thu 31 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    My favorite zip code is Concord 94520 @ 9.1%
    I have to admit I've got my eye on Richmond 94804 @ 8.4%. Either the Richmond Annex or Marina Bay for buying a rental if I can get one to pencil out.

  28. thomas.wong1986


    Follow
    Befriend
    16 threads
    4,426 comments

    95   2:10pm Thu 31 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    OO says

    Morgan Hill is one of the few places in the Bay Area where white middle class are displacing Hispanic illegal workers, who now have to commute from Gilroy or Hollister.

    You could have said the same some 20 years ago as well when many left for Central CA.
    But home builders didnt build mansion back than. The last 10-12 years was an anomoly,
    build on bubble mentality, which is being reset due to more realistic economic enviroment.

  29. tatupu70


    Follow
    Befriend (3)
    15 threads
    5,653 comments

    96   2:11pm Thu 31 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    uni6jon2 says

    The main reason to buy is recognizing that you are unable to save money any other way

    That is NOT the main reason to buy. That is about the dumbest reason to buy I have ever heard.

    uni6jon2 says

    I just know that I’m glad I’ve not had to absorb the cost of all the repairs/maintenance needed during the time I’ve rented.

    True, that is an advantage of renting. I don't think the maintenance costs are all that high, but they do exist. Probably less than the tax benefit, actually. But that's a different discussion.

    uni6jon2 says

    Rent can go up, but almost never has during the time I’ve rented apartments and houses in Portland, OR and San Francisco.

    You're very fortunate then, because rents do go up. I guarantee you that your rent will be much higher 30 years from now.

    Anyways--my main point was that if you buy, there will be a time in the future where you will have no housing payment (save taxes) while if you rent, you will always be paying. So, I would consider renter more of a slave than a buyer.

  30. OO


    Follow
    Befriend
    1 threads
    3,248 comments

    97   2:12pm Thu 31 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    congrats SMR, are you buying in Pleasanton or Danville? I have seen lots of friends and colleagues migrating that way since 2009. Except for commute, I have nothing negative to say about that area.

  31. OO


    Follow
    Befriend
    1 threads
    3,248 comments

    98   2:16pm Thu 31 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    thomas.wong1986 says

    OO says

    Morgan Hill is one of the few places in the Bay Area where white middle class are displacing Hispanic illegal workers, who now have to commute from Gilroy or Hollister.

    You could have said the same some 20 years ago as well when many left for Central CA.

    But home builders didnt build mansion back than. The last 10-12 years was an anomoly,

    build on bubble mentality, which is being reset due to more realistic economic enviroment.

    I am not talking about a general area. I am talking about the making of certain more upscale communities, and in the Bay Area, it has always been along the western foothills. If you will, the first critical mass of mansions in Atherton, Hillsborough, Los Altos Hills gotta start somewhere. The world is not all doom and gloom, no matter what kind of shit or reset that will come this way, there will always be affluent people.

    I don't believe that Silicon Valley will turn into Detroit, and if you think that is the future, you shouldn't be lurking around here anyway.

  32. OO


    Follow
    Befriend
    1 threads
    3,248 comments

    99   2:20pm Thu 31 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    EBGuy says

    My favorite zip code is Concord 94520 @ 9.1%

    I have to admit I’ve got my eye on Richmond 94804 @ 8.4%. Either the Richmond Annex or Marina Bay for buying a rental if I can get one to pencil out.

    The good news is, you don't need escort to collect rent in Marina Bay. What is the dividing line between Marina Bay and the rest of Richmond?

  33. thomas.wong1986


    Follow
    Befriend
    16 threads
    4,426 comments

    100   2:24pm Thu 31 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    OO says

    I don’t believe that Silicon Valley will turn into Detroit, and if you think that is the future, you shouldn’t be lurking around here anyway.

    Larry Ellison was the first to coin that phrase..."SV is becoming Detroit". Like many founders of well known companies in SV over the past decades they see the high costs of homes as deterent from hiring in the Bay Area and rather set up shop elsewhere. You can call them Doom and Gloom but they call the shots who works for them, where, and how much. To them it is a numbers game and the bottom line.

  34. Rented through the downturn


    Follow
    Befriend
    33 comments
    Pleasanton, CA

    101   2:26pm Thu 31 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    OO says

    congrats SMR, are you buying in Pleasanton or Danville? I have seen lots of friends and colleagues migrating that way since 2009. Except for commute, I have nothing negative to say about that area.

    Nailed it - Pleasanton. Can commute to Silicon Valley from there. You know, I can drive a little more to save some $90k/year in mortgage/tax expenses!! After watching the market closely the past several years, I can say with confidence that you pay about 50-55% less out there compared to a like property in Palo Alto. Seriously.

  35. FunTime


    Follow
    Befriend (3)
    38 threads
    801 comments
    San Francisco, CA

    102   2:41pm Thu 31 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    tatupu70 says

    Anyways–my main point was that if you buy, there will be a time in the future where you will have no housing payment (save taxes) while if you rent, you will always be paying. So, I would consider renter more of a slave than a buyer.

    The tricky part, thinking of the simple math involved, is your "time in the future." Compound interest has time in the exponent. So if you want a lot of money, getting the time part as big as possible is the most advantageous goal for a bigger number.

    Unfortunately, buying a home with debt(mortgage) means that you'll be, instead, paying that interest over time to someone else.

    By saving your own money, there can be a time in your future where you're the one loaning money to other people.

    Of course, if you can buy a house and save money, that could lead to a great level of financial independence too. That's been a tough picture to paint while home prices are at their current levels. Plus since the price/debt is only the beginning of house ownership cost, you're looking at a future of unknown financial planning. Mostly the lenders making money these days.

  36. FunTime


    Follow
    Befriend (3)
    38 threads
    801 comments
    San Francisco, CA

    103   2:51pm Thu 31 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    tatupu70 says

    True, that is an advantage of renting. I don’t think the maintenance costs are all that high, but they do exist. Probably less than the tax benefit, actually. But that’s a different discussion.

    Yeah, the mental state and planning this allows is probably the bigger benefit. Fixed costs are easy for finanical planning. Very few unexpected, big costs. Patrick also points out that you're also unlikely to sit around dreaming about how much bigger your house could be and then go spend more.

    Still, in almost four years of renting a house in San Francisco it's been painted, the downstairs laundry area has flooded twice, once just leading to a need for industrial driers and a bunch of (my landlord's)time spent pulling back carpet, pulling/replacing floor boards, the second time because of a hot water heater failure so the hot water heater was replaced, all downstairs carpet replaced, more industrial heaters, paying the difference in my electricity bill, an arborist, a gardener, recently repairing the gas heater($500), cleaning gutters and a bunch of other little stuff.

    Definitely only a few thousand dollars, but...what's next?

  37. leo707


    Follow
    Befriend (12)
    10 threads
    3,516 comments
    Oakland, CA
    leo707's website
    Premium

    104   2:54pm Thu 31 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    tatupu70 says

    I understand not wanting to overspend on housing, but you’ve got it all wrong here. If you buy, you have 30 (or 15) years of debt payments. If you rent, then you truly have a lifetime of payments.
    Additionally, when you buy (with a fixed rate) you establish some stability in your housing cost. When you rent, you are subject to more uncertainty in rental costs.

    I can buy into what you are saying if your monthly outlay for buying and renting was the same, but if you are paying 2, or 3 times more (not unusual at the current house prices) for housing each month renting is a much better option.

    Image if your rent was $1000, but to buy the same place was $2000 for a 30 year mortgage. Assuming that you could invest and stay even with inflation; by renting you would have $1,560,000 in today’s dollars saved at the end of 30 years of renting.

    I am guessing that the renter could throw down cash on a house that is quite a bit nicer than the one the “owner” just finished paying off.

  38. FunTime


    Follow
    Befriend (3)
    38 threads
    801 comments
    San Francisco, CA

    105   2:55pm Thu 31 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    SanMateoRenter says

    You know, I can drive a little more to save some $90k/year in mortgage/tax expenses!!

    I think these are the kinds of reasons that really make buying sensible. They're just not reasons that settle in my mind.

    I live a mile from the office where I work. I walked to work both of the last two days. The weather really has been nice in the Bay Area! I admit that I find this benefit much more valuable that most people.

  39. leo707


    Follow
    Befriend (12)
    10 threads
    3,516 comments
    Oakland, CA
    leo707's website
    Premium

    106   2:59pm Thu 31 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    uni6jon2 says

    tatupu70 says

    True, that is an advantage of renting. I don’t think the maintenance costs are all that high, but they do exist. Probably less than the tax benefit, actually. But that’s a different discussion.

    Correct me if I am wrong, but I think the rule of thumb is planning on an average of 1% a year to maintain a house.

    You could get several years of nothing then *boom* $20K for a new roof.

  40. leo707


    Follow
    Befriend (12)
    10 threads
    3,516 comments
    Oakland, CA
    leo707's website
    Premium

    107   3:01pm Thu 31 Mar 2011   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    uni6jon2 says

    I live a mile from the office where I work. I walked to work both of the last two days. The weather really has been nice in the Bay Area! I admit that I find this benefit much more valuable that most people.

    I live almost 2 miles from work, and I love my walking commute. However, if it is raining really bad I will bus it.

« First     « Previous comments     Next comments »     Last »

Patrick is moderator of this thread.

Email

Username

Watch comments by email
Home   Tips and Tricks   Questions or suggestions? Mail p@patrick.net  

Page took 241 milliseconds to create.