Another victim of the housing market. This home was bought by an investor/flipper in Dec. 2009 for $350k from US Bank and flipped it in Feb. 2010 for $595k. If I remember it correctly, it was listed for $580k. Not a bad profit for two months worth of holding. I am not sure if the new owner was aware of this information, or his realtor hid this information from him. I wouldn't buy it knowing this information because I would just tick me off so bad. Basically, the new owner paid 2005 price for the home. It is what it is. The market determines the price, not you, not me.
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Thanks for the stocks! Obviously being in tech, I've been drawn to them over the years. I've known for a long time they aren't the best area to be in, even though they get a lot of attention. They were in my "comfort zone" though, this is going to be the year I leave that zone. My investments have a potential to augment my income by 40-50+% this year and I do okay salary wise. I should really be spending a lot more time handling these investments, penny wise, pound foolish.
This is one stock we should all be watching:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=LULU
Unfortunately I didn't pay attention to it last year :( It's a killer clothing company, and every woman who gets conned into buying one piece, then drops 90% of their clothing budget into this company. Believe me, I've seen it repeated time after time. They're started to get larger and larger now, more celebs are wearing their clothing now too. If you doubt me, buy your wife/gf a piece and watch what happens. It might still be a good buy though.
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@ pkennedy,
LULU reminds me of CROX. This is a momentum stock. It's too pricey for me. Good luck with your bet.
It's time to load up on GS. It has a really strong support in the high $140's. I will double down or even triple down on it.
@ SF ace,
No homebuilders in the portfolio other than MDC?
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You've obviously never given a woman lulu lemon clothing :) This isn't a crox/brand thing, this is just a line of clothing that gets bought because it's extremely comfortable, and lasts. The only reason I know this is because the company was based in Vancouver, and when we visited family they started pawning this stuff off on my wife about 6 years ago. Every time my wife went back, she would get more. Then all of a sudden an IPO and they're down here. Now every time I go to the gym, I see more and more of this being worn on a daily basis. Last year, I noticed almost no one wearing it, this year, I"ve noticed about 30% of the people wearing it. The women who do wear it, slowly change their habits to wearing this all the time.
I haven't bought into this stock because I really don't trust my analytical skills yet on reading balance sheets, sadly. I've had the security analysis book on my desk for awhile now, along with 3-4 other books. I've relied far too much in the past on what I knew of a stock and less on the low lying fundamentals, more on product line ups, and how well they're executing.
I'm not really sure where the fundamentals sit on this company, because it does have momentum, but it's also growing at insane rate.
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I would tend to agree with you, and one reason I didn't invest in it. I looked at it and thought it had gone far too high in valuation already, even without digging into anything else.
The yoga side of things is where they get the women hooked. They make a killing off the fact that the women don't wear these items to yoga. I would normally agree that knockoffs would come, however every woman who has tried them says they fit so well! Others could copy this, but they don't seem to. If the "fad" gets large enough, I could see them easily holding onto this lead for a long long time and making a solid presence like nike. Just a name that isn't going away. It is slightly risky, there is a high premium. Without that premium, I would definitely jump on it, but you're right the 3B valuation is just out there.
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I have another question. I'm using you guys for a lot of information here, and thanks!
Any sites you would recommend for finding interesting stocks? The sheer number of stocks out there has always been fairly intimidating to me, and so I've only stock with some of the basic, ignoring sectors I didn't understand and sticking mostly to tech. While it's done me ok, it's probably a dangerous place to leave myself in for the next 5-10 years.
I'm always bombarded with montley fools news letter, gurufocus news offerings, and many others. Are there any worth reading/using/paying for? Like any system, they cherry pick their wins to show great profits. Like any large scale system, it becomes ruined by the sheer number of people doing the lemming walk. Essentially the level I would love is exactly what you just posted on lulu. Balance sheet looks good, high premium, slow growth. Niche markets will likely fill in the gaps if they get large enough.
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I was afraid you had far too many insider friends!
That is one reason I like tech, because that is where "my" insiders sit. I have a large holding with AMD, which has done !@#$ all for me for a long time. I held it forever it went up, but without reading the financials I didn't realize I should have sold :( Now I'm sitting on it, and waiting for a good push again. They have a major release coming out next year, and they're lining up wins left and right now with major competitors. When I called up Dell last, they pushed AMD on first, then after telling them I needed Intel, they pushed AMD again. I went to my managed hosting provider, and they're now pushing AMD, where as I couldn't get one AMD option with them before. The lineup they've got coming out looks very impressive, debt levels look ok now. And many more technical reasons. Anyways, I foresee about 18 months of potential growth for them. But that is all due to being fairly intimate with Intel, AMD, Nvidia, and the partners who resell their products. I was hoping to find an outside source for other companies!
The sheer number of stocks makes it fairly difficult to find and follow good ones. I'm hoping to investigate fully the list you gave me, because I figure that is probably better than whatever MSN is peddling for the day.
Gurufocus is fairly interesting, and I bought into C, when I saw Soros had taken a large position in it. Basically the same reason you went with DNDN. It's hard to tell if it will be a good bet or not. I'm going to look at other banks this month, and then look to construction for later in the year - as you pointed out, it will likely be the next to come out of the recession, so I would like to gain knowledge of that industry before that happens!
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Fantastic!
Although it's 10-K's look dreadful, but getting better. The losses have been astronomical, and for so long. However, I believe that could be changing next year. It profitability and stock price are completely cyclical. Next year there is a completely new architecture + new fab process + fusion chips (GPU+CPU). The netbook market looks great, but very low profit. But those would be something like 1W dual core, 64bit cpus with a GPU onboard.
With the whole litigation with Intel over with now, it looks like they have a decent chance of making some good inroads. I noticed in other countries that Intel was used almost exclusively in small shops, where as it's more better than 50/50 here.
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@ pkennedy,
GS got downgraded by S&P on Friday. If what SF ace said is true, it's time to load up on GS. I've already double down. Also, I've noticed you enjoy Zephyr's comments. I wish I could write like him. Short, precise and to the point.
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I suspect they are going to take a major trimming in stock value over the next couple of weeks. They're going to hurt a lot of stocks as well, but in the end they're going to be quite a value.
I'm just wondering if I should shed my citigroup for a few weeks and see where this all ends up.
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I wouldn't disagree. I know it has a strong support at the mid to high $140's. I wouldn't be surprised if it drops some more. I will triple down it that's the case.
I got my eyes on Citigroup too. My buying target is $3.85 to $3.90. We'll see whether or not it would come down to there. Typically, I let the stock drop to its support level before buying. I don't like to chase it. I added some more position in SCCO. My cost is $31.
I am so tempted to buy TOT. Dividend yield is 5.7% and it's sitting near its support level. There are so much clouds around RIG and BP right now due to the oil spill. BP is sitting right at the support level of $52 and yield is about 6%. RIG is a pretty good buy at this level too. I have a strike buy price for RIG at $66. We'll see whether or not it will get there.
Sorry, I don't have any insider info. DNDN exploded this past Friday. I hope SF ace didn't sell it yet.
Regarding some stocks to have in your portfolio other than techs, I think SBUX and COST are good ones. I own both of these in my IRA Account.
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@e-man,
I would avoid all drillers (offshore and even the ones that operates the lesser rigs) and probably upstream oil right now. There is already clear sign that instititions are lightening up, a mass exit among all drillers including the big four (RIG, noble, Diamond and forgot the other one) There are signs that the big money wants to exit these positions as fast as possible as orderly as possible. I feel there is a liklihood that institutions would not buy at support level thus we may see it penetrated. Insitutions generally take a few months to lighten up and will not come back for at least six months thereafter. I would wait for things to develop and believe opportunity is further down the road, not right now.
Hint,notice that no one is downgrading any oil, gas, drilling industry right now, when clearly the situation warrants downgrading. I see mass exiting for awhile. IMO. On the other hand, wait for the downgrades to come, that is a pretty good sign the institutions will load up thereafter. (I know it's counter intuative, but trust me on this one, this is how institution often buy millions of share at a time. Big $$ buys after downgrades and sell after upgrades in these kind of situations. It takes big $$ to move stock price of these companies so these are institution driven)
Dendreon was a ten bagger in three years. I was in Atlanta one night and I got a phone call that certain institution bought x amount. This was an institution that knew what they were doing, when provenge looked bleaked, they forsaw what was eventually coming, I just let the money ride hoping provenge will succeed and it did. I knew someone way smarter than me with way more information resource did all the homework already. It doesn't make me rich but it does pay for my next car. now Im trying to figure out how much that drug is worth and see where I should exit.
@pkennedy, I'm still looking into AMD. Preliminary I do not like AMD as an investment stock. They make too little money when times are good, Whatever money they make during good time are spent huge investment in capital and research. When times are bad they fall into debt and stock dilution. This is a classic company that does nothing to the shareholder but sustain huge paycheck to executive managers and employees. In other words, good to work for but bad to invest in. Just look at how much the shares have been diluted the last 20 years and you realized this is not an investor friendly company. Having said that, the company is a cyclical play so it would rise along with the semiconductor industry, but I suspect you can do better than owning AMD.
Actually, the only thing that AMD is good at is growing the capital account consistently, that is just a terrible and long history of dilution and I want no part of it. In a nutshell, AMD can double their market cap, but if they also dilute you in half as well, you're no better off as an investor. Essentially, this is pretty much the history of AMD thus far. I personally despise these sort of companies as a shareholder.
Caveat, My opinion only.
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@ SF ace,
Looking at the charts, institutions are definitely bailing. Thanks a lot for your inputs.
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@sface
Yes I want out of it, I have to take a loss on it to get out, but I believe they are in a decent cyclical pattern right now, with a good number of products lined up to bring the stock up more than others. It's been a poor investment, and I'm looking for a decent exit strategy. I am decently confident that it'll raise over the course of the year, less confident on my ability to find other good stocks.
@e-man
What exactly tells you an institution is bailing in a chart?
@sf/e-man
GS, what are you takes on this?
BP,, the drillers might be exiting, but what about BP? Seems like a good inflation company to be in, as OIL will follow inflation for sure. As the economy recovers, I suspect oil to become more expensive as well. Zephyr believes inflation is going to come into play, as the only real method to bring down the deficit, as it's at a high enough point that tax gains during the good times won't be enough, and tax increases won't be enough.
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@ pkennedy,
Disclaimer: I'm not an expert on this. This is only for entertainment purpose.
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@E-man
Always good to bounce ideas off people!
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Ok, look to the right of the last graph "Money Flow", you can see the money is flowing out of BP and RIG, but the big boys are still accumulating TOT. While we're at it, look at the first graph of TOT. In January, it gapped up to about $67 and then gapped down. The traders call this a shooting star, very bearish. However, if it's the other way around, where the stock is gapped down and then gapped up, traders call this island bottom, very bullish. Like I said, this is only for entertainment purpose. Consult with your attorney and advisor b/4 making any money move :o)
I love GS so I'm biased. I think this is a great place to buy/accumulate GS.
In the long term, China & India will require a lot more oil, so I'm bullish on the oil sector as well. I believe China exceeded the U.S. in terms of total car sales last year, and they will only getting bigger so more oil consumption.
@ SF ace and pkennedy,
Personally, I think the oil spill crisis like this is an opportunity to buy their competitors. I will wait for another week or two before making the move, but I think DO and TOT is not a bad bet at these levels. The beautiful thing about the stock market is they always give you a second chance to buy. I call this double bottom. I hope that make sense to you pkennedy. Again, this is only for entertainment purpose. I am somewhat of a gambler, but not a day trader :o)
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My brother in law is a trader at GS, I'll give him a call to see what he thinks about the internal workings of the firm currently. I already have enough shares of GS already. Looking from the outside, this security fraud things is quite a stretch (fraud is quite a hurdle), never-the-less, it is bad publicity to the commoners. To the rich clients, they love Goldman's so that is all that matters in the end and it will be business as usual.
The thing about the market is things change every day, every week. I rather generalize things than make it too specific.
For oil, I recommend PTR and PBR. Buffet once owned PTR but had to divest due to bad publicity only, I'll pick up where he left off.
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@e-man
Thanks for all those graphs!
I'm sort of a bumbling gambler, so semi rational gambling sounds like a step in the right direction!
Hence, why I want to get away from tech which is far too much gambling and get into more value investing. My hindsite is awesome.. I fully understand my mistakes afterwords..
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@ SF ace,
Thanks in advance for the info. I just regret that I didn't buy enough COP and WFC at a much lower level. Same thing with GS. If Warren Buffet owns it, that's good enough for me :o)
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PBR is one that I want to get into, but also one that worries me a little bit. I'm going to ask my wife a bit about this one, and perhaps her father. He is a big pusher of PBR as well.
It's a government owned entity, setting prices, etc. New found Oil but no new found "riches for the poor" is probably going to be a political band stand in this upcoming election. With promises to share the wealth with the poor. I'm not positive on this, but it is something I could see happening. Whether they would do anything, is unknown, but Lula won be making promises and payments to the poor. The next person up is likely to continue with those promises. I'm betting the conservative party won't stand behind this, but the workers party could push something like this.
Btw, turmoil like this is what I'm hoping for during these elections. :) Brazil has enough multi nationals + enough growth for the last decade that they won't give it up easily, but fear will be strong during these elections due to workers party members promising the world like lula did. Their political system has run offs, so if one party doesn't get a clear majority, then minority parties are kicked out and new voting happens with the new subset for the president. So we could get several rounds of this.
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hmmm
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How about answ? This one I quickly looked at once. Some one at my office pointed it out, and we were discussing it. It's small cap with limited volume. I'm not sure if it's track record for sales is going to continue, but it's a massive site on the internet according to quatcast. It's ranked #15 right now. Market cap of only 65M. p/s of 3.37.
I'm not sure if it will continue to make money, but it has so much traffic behind it, that they only need to come up with a small improvement in their business model to generate significant income.
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It's ok, not good not terrible. I don't like the 6% convertable (around 4-6 dollars) preferred's A and B hanging around as a common shareholder. That financing last year (not great timing) improved their balance sheet but the cost was too great. It will impair the value of the company signifcantly if someone else wants to buy it.
However, the variable cost is so low that growing the base and monetizing the user base would flow right into cash. The key is whether that could be executed and will be worth a lot of money for potential suitors. I have used answer.com to primarily seek/ask questions about fixing cars but the potential is limited as well. I'll wait until Q1 comes out to see where they are at.
The site im really bullish on is linkedin.com. It is going to destroy monster international and whatever yahoo, google and MSN has as equilvalant, someone will pay big bucks to acquire that one. That is a sure IPO buy for me.
Let's throw another similar one out there, thoughts on loop?
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That is funny, because i've ended up on answers for car repair issues as well!
Interesting, I'm going to look over their financials a bit more to pin point your concerns and see if I can see them (knowing they're there... see if I can even get it in hindsight...)
linkedin is interesting. It's very large internationally, almost everyone I know over seas uses it. It's highly used for consults I've found. All other job engines are just full of spam unfortunately. I've never used it for finding candidates, or for looking for positions, but I keep in touch with people there, who I would rather not keep in contact with on facebook :) I've been spammed by recruiters, trying to get me to introduce them to management, other than that I haven't really figured out to use it for anything beneficial for myself.
loopnet.com? Are you looking at this one, I've never heard of them. Quantcast shows they are heavily skewed asian and 100K earners. Traffic has been flat for the last 2-3 years, actually it's dipped by about 15%.
Traffic is low enough that hardware costs should be minimal, depending on the quality of their engineers it should be less than 10K/month. Probably 1 engineer to maintain it, maybe 2-3 if they're really sloppy. I'm guessing that programmers aren't a major expense either, as the site probably doesn't change that much.
Income looks good, 65M means they're making doing something correctly. I'm not exactly sure what they are selling. PE seems high? Year over year it doesn't look like much growth, maybe even a small decline due to higher expenses? 65M, 75M 62M?
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Ok, that would have totally gone over my head. I would never have seen that red flag.
I had a roommate that had a PHD in pharmacology, and basically drug making seemed like a bad investment. At best it takes about 12-14 years to get a drug out the door, that leaves a 6-8 years to recoup what is essentially 1B in R&D. If they're stalled for several years, that eats into the 6-8 window. I own a bad drug company, bought high, holding it still. I figure I'll hold it until I need a tax reason to sell - otherwise it's not worth selling, the money is so marginal. Ugh!
Anything else interesting to look into?
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If it's such a great product, one of the big firms would swoop in and grab it for pennies. If all they need to do is drop a bit of money into it to grease the wheels..
I used to watch the news with my friend, and essentially news advertising = drug companies. Every fancy looking drug that came up, he would say "so-and-so drug" essentially once he decoded what was in these ads they were saying "cure aids with asprin.. "
We're really scraping the bottom of the barrel now with drug manufacturing (actually drug discovery). We're taking what we have and trying to find new uses for it, new drugs are far and few between. I'm pretty skeptical on all drug companies now... Doing new studies takes time, if it requires "changes" good luck.
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It seems that they just need strong management at this point. Clinical trials are expensive, but hundreds of millions expensive? for a final stage? Time consuming, yes, but that expensive? That seems high. If they pare the company down, then the burn rate wouldn't be so bad. I don't know why the fda is concerned, but I would assume it's in one particular area not a "umm not good enough! do it all over!" type of failure.
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ITMN got murdered today. The key point is buying it when the volume is dried up. Yep, it's not for the faint of heart.
I think the back door to play on drug companies is TEVA, the generic drug maker. Other companies spent billions of $$ on research, and they get to use it when the patent is expired. Disclosure: I own this.
I like and own GILD, too. The numbers and everything look good, but it has been a dog for the past 2 years. At this price, I think it's 30% to 40% under its intrinsic value.
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Ugh, I'm always holding stocks when I should be selling. I have to learn to sell more efficiently!
Now that this sell off has been going on for a few days, I'm starting to wonder if we're heading down for a correction or if it's going to tapper off.
Even generic can be expensive. I learned that from my room mate too! Apparently there is a lot to be said about knowing what is in a cake, and actually putting the ingredients in the proper order and baking/cooling at each step, etc. Some are easy, some are extremely complex to make, even when you know what to copy. Although, I'm betting generics will fair very well over the coming decades.
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Personally, I have a gut feeling that this downturn will last quite a white.
Then again, I had that same feeling before it ran up so much in the last year. I was very wrong.
On the third hand, a lower market is just a buying opportunity for solid dividend-paying stocks, most of which seem to be drug companies.
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Buying opportunity is nice, I would rather have my money out, so I can have more fun during a buying opportunity though...
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Hm I asked Zephyr for some places for more balanced information, and he gave me www.rtable.net, have you guys read this site before? It's like patrick.net, but for economics. Having all that news in one place, so easily to sort through is nice! It seems to be linking to mostly quality articles as far as I can tell.
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pkennedy says
Ok, it sounds easy, but it's not. It takes discipline. You have to know when to take profit. Also, I only trade stocks that I don't mind holding for long-term. See 3 examples below.
1) COP. Buy or add to your position when it hits 200-day moving average (red line at around $48). Take profit when it looks frothy, 20% to 25% above the 200-day moving average. I typically sell 80% of my position and keep 20%. Basically, you're playing with other people's money. When it comes back down to the 200-day moving average, you buy again. Yes, it may go higher after you sold it, so what? How do you like to play with the house's money or would you prefer to give all of your gain back if the market were to go back to where you bought or the market tanked as a whole?
2) AGNC. I like to buy when the 50- and 200-day moving average converge. Sell when it looks frothy and diverge too much. If you buy at this level and it goes lower, you don't feel as bad because you bought "right" if you will. I hang on the AGNC because it pays 20% dividend. Oh yeah, it's nice getting $280 for 200 shares every quarter. Right now, it looks like the cash flow is adequate to support the dividend. NLY just cut its dividend by 5 or 10 cents a couple of days ago and the stock got murdered, I added it to my position. I think it pays something like 16%.
3) VZ. This stock goes sideway between $28.50 to $32.00 in every 2 or 3 month cycles. So I would buy it here and sell it when it goes to $32. In the mean time, collect the dividend. I spend about $60/month on coffee so trading 100 shares every quarter should give me plenty of $$ for my coffee.
4) Looks like GS, BP and GOOG are trying to put in a bottom at these levels. I just don't like the fact that the market (S&P and DOW) violated its 200-day moving average yesterday. If S&P breaks below 1,050, it's time to raise cash. I will buy Investor Business Daily (IBD) newspaper tomorrow and see what they say.
Hope that helps. Again, I am not an expert in trading. I enjoy reading and understanding how the market works. This info is only for entertainment purpose. SF ace should have a much more understanding on this subject because he's in the business.
I guess you could see the pattern. I like to buy stocks that pay big dividends.
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@ SF ace,
I don't like the action in the market yesterday. Now looking at the S&P chart, it looks like volume picked up on down days, and light volume for the up days, for the past couple of weeks. Big boys are bailing or taking profit?
I will keep close eyes on the S&P support levels of 1,050, 970, and 870. If it breaks 870 decisively, then we're going much lower probably 10% below March 2009 low in my opinion. Of course, it's way too early to tell now. Your opinion is greatly appreciated.
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Do either of you follow european politics?
I'm just wondering how the changes in germany might effect the euro. I'm wondering if the other side might try and sabotage the other side to gain seats at a huge expense to the euro.
Thanks for the updates guys, it's one thing to read about the market, it's another to try and figure it out yourself and have some feed back.
I had the same impression, that a few things had lined up, greece/germany/euro, bp, gs fraud news, and people were just looking for any reason to bail. I also feel that we might trade within a range this year. A couple of the rtrable.net articles said we were at around our 100 year average for stocks right now, and with this market i don't see us breaking through those averages that easily either. I believe they quoted 20:1 for the 100 year average, with us being around 20.3 or 19.6? with bubbles usually peaking around 23:1.
I don't see any reason to plummet, but I dont see any reason to make giant leaps forward either.
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Kennedy,
This reminds me of the Asian contagion in 1997. A few months before that contagion I had moved to all cash because I had got laid off. Then when I got another job it was right when the contagion hit and I went all in. It was a huge windfall. I am open minded that it is the beginning of a contagion like with Austrian debt default in 1931, but that took another almost two years to unravel to our shores. For the meanwhile there's some similarities (not the same thing as "it's the same situation all over again") to overreaction to Greek sovereign debt crisis.
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Well looks like we're heading up again for awhile. With 1T pumped into Europe, we shouldn't see too much instability over there.
That leaves BP, which isn't getting better, but isn't getting any worse either. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/8664684.stm
GS could cause problems with the banking side. In hind site, I ended up selling my C at the lows! Sigh. Not a huge loss there though, and probably a reasonable selling point anyways. I sold it about an hour before the 1K dip on thursday, I didn't see any good news coming out and things were heading down. Is there something I should have considered before selling then? Or just waited things out?
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Redwood City, CA
I agree with you SF. From what I've been able to gather, things appear fairly evenly priced. I was hoping last thursday that we might be entering into value territory.
That being said, I was just starting to get into things, and was hoping to continue learning a bit more. Now it's basically 'on hold' it seems :(
What examples do you have of high yield bonds? What are you looking at? What do you generally look at, and what do you avoid?
I assume bonds/preferred stock are fairly similar in terms of investing purposes? Is there a clear differentiator, other than bonds have a pay out date?
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28 threads
1,341 comments
Redwood City, CA
Btw, I'm glad I was able to "agree" with you before you posted. And I also appreciate that my ideas aren't insane.
Whenever I go looking for more indepth information on what is happening, I just get one sided biased media looking to drum up readers and fanatics. So it's nice to see you saying you think everything is fairly valued, that it's likely to go side ways for awhile.
What I couldn't figure out what to do, is where to invest. So your comments about switching to high yield bonds makes sense. Granted I've never looked at them before, so I have no idea how to value, judge them.
Btw, I received an amazon kindle from my wife last week. I used to think "waste of money, use a laptop, or buy a book", now I think, what a fantastic device this is. The screen is simply amazing, and if you do a lot of book buying, reading, especially lugging around books... this is the device for you guys!
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34 threads
2,545 comments
San Jose, CA
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I am selling into the close today to raise some cash. The market is up big, but there is a lack of buying conviction.
Thanks for providing the ticks SF ace. I will look at them after the close.