WatchObama took credit today for an "improvement in the U-3 unemployment numbers. He failed to mention that a whopping 50,000 "new jobs" in the government's figures are temp jobs for the Census. Far more telling is the U-6 unemployment rate, a rate the Obama administration never even mentions. This is looking more and more like we've become Oceania and Obama is speaking from the Ministry of Truth. It won't be long before we begin to see signs like War is Peace, Freedom is Slavery, Ignorance is Strength.
Broader U-6 Unemployment Rate Rises to 16.9%
Posted Apr 2nd 2010 4:30PM by Connie Madon
The Labor Department issued its monthly unemployment for March. The numbers were upbeat. The unemployment rate held steady at 9.7% and 162,000 new jobs were created. This is the official number and is labeled the U-3 unemployment report. The U-3 category includes people who are without jobs and who are available for work. Wonderful isn't it? Maybe not.
Let's dig a bit deeper into the darker side of the unemployment numbers. What is rarely published are the unemployment numbers under the category labeled U-6. Most people have never heard of the U-6 category because it is rarely cited in headline news.
What is U-6? This category includes everyone in the official rate plus "marginally attached workers" -- those who are neither working nor looking for work, but say they want a job and have looked for work recently. It also includes part time workers who took part time work because they couldn't find full time jobs.
The U-6 data may shock you. It shows that unemployment actually rose 0.1% to 16.9% in March. The highest number was 17.4% in October.
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U6 would be a lot higher if we counted all the people who have completely dropped
out of the workforce in total despair. I think it would be about 25 percent if the count was not
always being manipulated.
Also we can't forget that even those who are supposedly employed "full time" are only working 34 hours per week which means no new hiring will be needed until their hours have increased
significantly. 34 hours is actually only 85 percent of a full time job and that should be factored into the numbers.
The problem for the government is the short duration of the census jobs. When they all go away in a few months we will head into the election season with more job losses and the 5 million long term unemployed will be averaging almost 52 weeks out of work by then.
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SF ace says
Pardon me for being confused by your comment. You claim these unemployment numbers are a "sure sign the economy is on the path to recovery" and then say it will be a "slow undertain grind." Which is it? Sure thing or uncertain?
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Thanks for clearing that up. LOL
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SF ace says
That's what the lefty Supreme Court Justices say to the conservatives when interpreting the Constitution.
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More bad news for Obamabots:
Initial jobless claims increase unexpectedly
By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER, AP Economics Writer 1 hr 26 mins ago
WASHINGTON – The number of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment benefits rose last week, a sign that jobs remain scarce even as the economy recovers.
The Labor Department said Thursday that first-time claims increased by 18,000 in the week ending April 3, to a seasonally adjusted 460,000. That's worse than economists' estimates of a drop to 435,000, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters.
The report covers the week that includes the Easter holiday, and a Labor Department analyst said seasonal adjustment for Easter can be difficult since the holiday occurs in different weeks each year.
California also closed its state offices for a holiday March 31, the analyst said, which likely held down the claims figures. On an unadjusted basis, claims rose by 6,500 to nearly 415,000.
Economists closely watch unemployment claims, which are seen as a gauge of layoffs and a measure of companies' willingness to hire new workers.
The four week average, which smoothes volatility, rose to 450,250. Two weeks ago, the average fell to its lowest level since September 2008, when Lehman Brothers collapsed and the financial crisis intensified.
Jobless claims peaked during the recession at 651,000 in late March 2009.
The figures underscore that the job market remains weak even as the economy recovers. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday that high unemployment is one of the toughest challenges the economy faces.
While layoffs have slowed, hiring is "very weak," he said. "We are far from being out of the woods. Many Americans are still grappling with unemployment or foreclosure or both."
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RayAmerica says
I think it's bad news for everyone. Do you cheer when unemployment rises?
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tatupu70 says
I'm sure he does. It doesn't matter that the recession started before Obama took office and that his policies couldn't possibly have created it. It's unfortunate that our economic woes are a source of partisan rhetoric on both sides of the isle.
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The thing that gets me is that while we have such devastating unemployment the propaganda machine makes it sound like everything is all better now... How could we possibly have recovered from a 50% drop in home prices and massive unemployment?
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rileybryan says
I haven't seen those articles--do you have any links? Most of the stuff I see says things appear to be stabilizing or just slightly improving, albeit at a much lower level than 3 years ago.
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I wasn't jumping for joy either when I heard that that 162,000 new jobs were created. The same thing happened during the house decline, there was an uptick on housing sales one month and the NAR was quick to point out that the house crash was over and the housing recovery has started. If the job numbers hold up for another 2 months, then I say recovery has started, but there no reason to jump for joy over one month.
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I guess we have a different meaning for "everything is all better now".
Headlines such as "pickup sales could be an early sign of economic recovery" and "economic recovery slowly under way" don't scream all better to me.
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rileybryan says
The media did the same thing well into the Great Depression. Back then, the media kept referring to it as a "recession" that will "end soon" well into the mid 1930's! Numerous stories ran in all the newspapers back then that said things like: "Great Confidense in Chicago" "Cleveland is Recovering" Detroit is Picking Up Steam" etc.
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RayAmerica says
It sounds like you've given up on America.
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Nomograph says
I would love to be optimistic, unfortunately, realism keeps getting in the way. There are far too many sectors that are on extremely shaky ground financially, housing being the big one because of its cascading effect on so many other sectors, especially the financial sector. The next huge problem will be commercial real estate loans. After pumping in record amounts of paper money, we're now faced with potential inflation in major sectors while other sectors continue to deflate. Unemployment figures (U-6) remain extremely weak and show no signs of lessening. Housing inventory is at record highs, with more listings coming on the market due to the continuing increase in foreclosures, which will further push prices down, which will further weaken the financial sector, etc. To make matters worse, Americans typically owe more than they are worth and have an average of $9,500+ on credit cards alone. We are in for a long period of stagflation, the Fed has spent their bullets, trade deficits continue to rise and the Federal Government is technically bankrupt. Another huge problem; amnesty for millions of illegal immigrants which will drive overall labor costs down. You tell me. What is there to be optimistic about?
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tatupu, its true that it might not be ridiculously enthusiastic, but I'm seeing the word 'recovery' used 10:1 over 'disaster' or 'collapse'. It is clearly biased.
Ray, we can be optimistic that the ponzi scheme is rebuilt and we experience another period of unexplainable wealth, which hopefully lasts as long as we are alive.
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rileybryan says
That's because most indicators seem to point towards a small recovery right now. The headlines 2 years ago were probably 10:1 in favor of disaster or collapse. We're past that point. That's not biased, it's the prevailing wisdom.
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tatupu70 says
Where was the mainstream media when the housing bubble was being pumped with air? It was obvious to a lot of people, including little old me, but it was basically ignored by them. Are you actually going to believe and trust them when they "report" on economic conditions?
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riley ... you're right about the Ponzi scheme. I feel we're at the tale end of the scheme and it is finally being exposed for what it really is. I honestly hope you are right, but tend to doubt they'll be able to re-pump the bubble and make it last.
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RayAmerica says
If only everyone were as smart as you Ray. I'm not saying the mainstream media is intelligent. I'm saying that they aren't biased--they just report the prevailing wisdom for the most part. Most people didn't think we were in a housing bubble until the end, so the media reported exactly that.
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RayAmerica says
wrong. Latest reports show companies are planning on hiring over the next 6-12 months.
RayAmerica says
That's not what I've seen. Do you have any links to back that?
RayAmerica says
Again--that is exactly opposite from what I've been seeing. Americans have been steadily reducing their debt load for the last 18 months.