WatchObama took credit today for an "improvement in the U-3 unemployment numbers. He failed to mention that a whopping 50,000 "new jobs" in the government's figures are temp jobs for the Census. Far more telling is the U-6 unemployment rate, a rate the Obama administration never even mentions. This is looking more and more like we've become Oceania and Obama is speaking from the Ministry of Truth. It won't be long before we begin to see signs like War is Peace, Freedom is Slavery, Ignorance is Strength.
Broader U-6 Unemployment Rate Rises to 16.9%
Posted Apr 2nd 2010 4:30PM by Connie Madon
The Labor Department issued its monthly unemployment for March. The numbers were upbeat. The unemployment rate held steady at 9.7% and 162,000 new jobs were created. This is the official number and is labeled the U-3 unemployment report. The U-3 category includes people who are without jobs and who are available for work. Wonderful isn't it? Maybe not.
Let's dig a bit deeper into the darker side of the unemployment numbers. What is rarely published are the unemployment numbers under the category labeled U-6. Most people have never heard of the U-6 category because it is rarely cited in headline news.
What is U-6? This category includes everyone in the official rate plus "marginally attached workers" -- those who are neither working nor looking for work, but say they want a job and have looked for work recently. It also includes part time workers who took part time work because they couldn't find full time jobs.
The U-6 data may shock you. It shows that unemployment actually rose 0.1% to 16.9% in March. The highest number was 17.4% in October.
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The thing that gets me is that while we have such devastating unemployment the propaganda machine makes it sound like everything is all better now... How could we possibly have recovered from a 50% drop in home prices and massive unemployment?
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rileybryan says
I haven't seen those articles--do you have any links? Most of the stuff I see says things appear to be stabilizing or just slightly improving, albeit at a much lower level than 3 years ago.
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I wasn't jumping for joy either when I heard that that 162,000 new jobs were created. The same thing happened during the house decline, there was an uptick on housing sales one month and the NAR was quick to point out that the house crash was over and the housing recovery has started. If the job numbers hold up for another 2 months, then I say recovery has started, but there no reason to jump for joy over one month.
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I guess we have a different meaning for "everything is all better now".
Headlines such as "pickup sales could be an early sign of economic recovery" and "economic recovery slowly under way" don't scream all better to me.
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rileybryan says
The media did the same thing well into the Great Depression. Back then, the media kept referring to it as a "recession" that will "end soon" well into the mid 1930's! Numerous stories ran in all the newspapers back then that said things like: "Great Confidense in Chicago" "Cleveland is Recovering" Detroit is Picking Up Steam" etc.
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RayAmerica says
It sounds like you've given up on America.
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Nomograph says
I would love to be optimistic, unfortunately, realism keeps getting in the way. There are far too many sectors that are on extremely shaky ground financially, housing being the big one because of its cascading effect on so many other sectors, especially the financial sector. The next huge problem will be commercial real estate loans. After pumping in record amounts of paper money, we're now faced with potential inflation in major sectors while other sectors continue to deflate. Unemployment figures (U-6) remain extremely weak and show no signs of lessening. Housing inventory is at record highs, with more listings coming on the market due to the continuing increase in foreclosures, which will further push prices down, which will further weaken the financial sector, etc. To make matters worse, Americans typically owe more than they are worth and have an average of $9,500+ on credit cards alone. We are in for a long period of stagflation, the Fed has spent their bullets, trade deficits continue to rise and the Federal Government is technically bankrupt. Another huge problem; amnesty for millions of illegal immigrants which will drive overall labor costs down. You tell me. What is there to be optimistic about?
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tatupu, its true that it might not be ridiculously enthusiastic, but I'm seeing the word 'recovery' used 10:1 over 'disaster' or 'collapse'. It is clearly biased.
Ray, we can be optimistic that the ponzi scheme is rebuilt and we experience another period of unexplainable wealth, which hopefully lasts as long as we are alive.
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rileybryan says
That's because most indicators seem to point towards a small recovery right now. The headlines 2 years ago were probably 10:1 in favor of disaster or collapse. We're past that point. That's not biased, it's the prevailing wisdom.
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tatupu70 says
Where was the mainstream media when the housing bubble was being pumped with air? It was obvious to a lot of people, including little old me, but it was basically ignored by them. Are you actually going to believe and trust them when they "report" on economic conditions?
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riley ... you're right about the Ponzi scheme. I feel we're at the tale end of the scheme and it is finally being exposed for what it really is. I honestly hope you are right, but tend to doubt they'll be able to re-pump the bubble and make it last.
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RayAmerica says
If only everyone were as smart as you Ray. I'm not saying the mainstream media is intelligent. I'm saying that they aren't biased--they just report the prevailing wisdom for the most part. Most people didn't think we were in a housing bubble until the end, so the media reported exactly that.
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RayAmerica says
wrong. Latest reports show companies are planning on hiring over the next 6-12 months.
RayAmerica says
That's not what I've seen. Do you have any links to back that?
RayAmerica says
Again--that is exactly opposite from what I've been seeing. Americans have been steadily reducing their debt load for the last 18 months.
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Well one could look at the SBA loans are on the rise, and conclude that a recovery is near.
But in fact, it is a Big business selling poor saps Franchise's. Since McD's, Starbucks, BK, and most every franchise has had to close doors around the world since the economy first broke. After almost a decade of unbridled growth.
SBA has been closed fisted with SBA loans, for fear of risks, spite the fact both administrations gave banks money to loan to Main street for the past three years, which the banks have not reciprocated to the intended recipients. Innovators with new business models and ideas.
Now out of the blue, the Ohcrapit's Bama administration, wants to put desperate entrepreneurs who just want to manage their own businesses, into servitude to Big business franchise. These weary would be franchisees don't have a clue, that their endeavor with these Big Biz companies, will be wrought with forced, honoring of coupons that force these franchise owners to sell 5 dollars worth of merchandise at 99cents and get one free. As per the franchise agreement.
The Franchise gets money from the licensing to the franchisees, it's the franchisees that have to honor rock-bottom dollar marketing strategies that corporate creates. It's win for the Corporations, regardless how miserable these campaigns fail for the franchisees.
Mark my word, these Franchise owners are going to have a greater default rate than any financial proposition on the Books in America, with in two years.
In the meantime go to the SBA with a solid business plan, for a new development of a business model, and see how far you get.
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Update on the REAL unemployment rate: a whopping 22% in sunny California, 17% nationally. Proving further that all of these job stimulus programs aren't making a dent in the rate of unemployment.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2010/10/24/60_minutes_the_real_unemployment_rate_is_17.html?source=patrick.net#custom-topics-header
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"Unemployment is a lagging indicator during a recovery".
Or so we are told. This phrase has been around since Reagan, it was a favorite quote of conservative economists, wonks, and politicians. Because, during each downturn they had to have some RATIONALIZATION for how jobs would eventually "trickle down" to the peasants. And yes, that's what it boils down to, that it's simply another facet of "trickle down" VOODOO economics.
It's a real problem, however Ray's purpose is not to discuss real problems. It's another tail he's found, which he wants to pin on Obama, when clearly the avalance started during ummm.... some prior administration.
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Vicente says
Wrong ... again. The "avalanche" didn't start under the previous administration, although Bush didn't do anything to help matters. It really started back in the 70's with American multi-national companies increasing their manufacturing base overseas. It hit full stride with the globalists pushing trade packages on us that eventually (we're seeing it now) crushed manufacturing in the USA along with its workers. Obviously, the American worker cannot compete with the Chinese or Indian worker that makes a fraction of what U.S. workers are accustomed to. My real issue is not who is President, but how and when we are going to be able to bring jobs back. Along with outsourcing, we have millions of illegal immigrants that are here competing with American citizens for the few jobs that are out there. American workers under the age of 25 have an unemployment rate of 54%. In large part, this is precisely what the Tea Party movement is all about.
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RayAmerica says
Bzzzt wrong!
By the time Bush left office, unemployment was worse than when he came in. His efforts to pump the economy by getting us all out shopping and buying houses, was a miserable failure. He never got it to less than when he assumed office, and couldn't even do as well as his Daddy. He only ever achieved a very small temporary reduction in unemployment. By the time he scuttled back to Texas the chickens were coming home to roost.
Blah blah blah. Do you think for a second that Koch Industries or the banks or the mega-corporations will let you translate that into action once the Teabaggers are in office. Hell no, they own the strings and you will dance. If you don't they will cut the strings and find someone to replace you.
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RayAmerica says
There really aren't too many solutions.. You can devalue the dollar further, institute significant tariffs, or invent/commercialize new industries.
The first two will cause the cost of most everything to rise so the last is the most desirable. Unfortunately, it's also the most difficult.
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elliemae says
The FUCKER ran back to WASHINGTON from his Campaign trail, to make a Grandiose grandstanding gesture, to legislate the very BAD POLICY he INHERITED! He Wrote it Remember?
...There I said it.
Giving all the banks trillions and trillions of dollars, and the Fed the go ahead to give dirt filthy cheap interest rates. Which the banks got addicted to, and quit lending to the "PRIVATE" Businesses sector.
Why risk that easy money, when they didn't have to?
His policy has been a disastrous path, and its fruision will be Wallmart being the best game in town for any American that isn't trained in being a legal Financial robber Barron, or those not working in the Medical industry with a forced patronage.
Every one else it's Flipping Hamburgers with a spatula in each hand and broom up their backsides.
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Vicente says
I'm not a defender of Bush, but facts are facts. Notice on your graph when unemployment began to straight line up. And what event took place within months of Bush taking office in 2001? Do you think maybe, just maybe, 9/11 had something to do with confidence, without which the economy sputters like a car with water in the gas tank?
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tatupu70 says
Tatupu .... your post was made back in April. I'll let it speak for itself instead of taking advantage of the situation by pointing out how wrong you were. LOL
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RayAmerica says
Most people would assume it had something to do with things like.... DotBomb or.... globalization & outsourcing.. things like that.
I know that MAGICAL THINKERS like to think EVERYTHING revolves around CONFIDENCE.
But it doesn't. It's a factor to be sure, but if your underlying real economy is a mess you're hosed.
I'm sure Greenspan, Bush etc. all really believe if you give the guy with gangrene a pep talk and some painkillers he'll be right as rain. And he may feel fine and jump out of bed and start doing calisthenics. However eventually the smell and the real illness catches up with you.
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U-6 is now at 17.1%, just a hair from its worst level ever during the height of the financial collapse.
September 2010 saw a rapid increase in U-6 unemployment.
California has a U-6 of nearly 23%!
There has been no recovery.
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RayAmerica says
Unbelievable. First off, companies are hiring. Private sector employment is growing--it's just getting masked a little bit because public sector employment is falling. Second--12 months is April 2011. Not sure how I can be wrong in October 2010 when what I posted talked about April 2011.
And I still don't think housing inventory was at record highs in April 2010. You were flat out wrong. Again.
Nice try though.
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tatupu70 says
I'll let another poster answer. Maybe "kris" will have more success:
schmitz_kris says
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RayAmerica says
Maybe. You're obviously not doing too well so a call to the bullpen might be in order.
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Ray-
From today's headlines:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Unemployment-claims-drop-apf-3630307780.html?x=0
"The Labor Department said Thursday that initial claims for jobless benefits dropped by 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 434,000 in the week that ended Oct. 23."
"Applications for unemployment aid fell steadily last year after the recession ended in June 2009, dropping from 600,000 to about 450,000 by January of this year."
"Pharmaceuticals company Novartis AG said Wednesday that it will add 300 new jobs and invest $600 million over the next five years in its research headquarters in Cambridge, Mass. And engine maker Cummins, Inc. said Tuesday that it will expand its headquarters in Columbus, Ind. and add at least 350 jobs by 2012."
Seems like some companies are hiring to me...
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tatupu70 says
I like your attitude. Very positive. "Some companies are hiring" has a nice ring to it. Unfortunately, I wish I could believe that a drop of 21,000 new jobless claims was a big deal, particularly when 434,000 new claims were registered for the week ending Oct. 23. After 18+ months of Obamanomics, job stimulus programs that have cost billions, TARP, loan modifications, etc. the economy remains in the stupor. The Chosen One claimed he would create 4 million jobs, he hasn't. He hasn't done one single thing to bring manufacturing back to this country. He hasn't fulfilled his campaign promise ("top priority") to renegotiate NAFTA & GATT. The American people have not been fooled. November 2nd. is the day they will go to the polls to register their disdain for this charlatan and his fellow travelers.
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I thought the Teabaggers were going to bring us all new jobs.
LIED AGAIN!
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Vicente says
You have the "Teabaggers" mixed up with your Dear Leader. It was Dear Leader that promised "4 million new jobs" during the campaign. Too bad he didn't tell us those jobs were in China & India. Dear Leader also said "renegotiating NAFTA & GATT would be "top priority" as soon as he took office. Too bad for us that with Dear Leader, "top priority" means "two years and counting."
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Vicente says
Wait! Give them a chance...
Bwa-ha ha ha! nah I-I just playin' you shoulda seen your face though...
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Democrats do have the PARTY OF NO to contend with after all. A bunch of crybabies who want to sabotage government. Astoundingly they manage to criticize the Wisconsin lawmakers for obstruction, while lying about the fact that they do it themselves.
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Vicente says
If only the GOP really were the "Party of No" to this pretender we have in the White House.
Are the Democrats of Wisconsin the "Party of No Show?"
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RayAmerica says
If it's good for the goose, it's good for the gander. To pretend otherwise is .... hypocrisy.
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Is the "Party of No" preventing Dear Leader from renegotiating NAFTA & GATT as he repeatedly promised during the campaign?
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NAFTA and GATT are good for America, the GOP is very clear on this. He's doubtless trying to compromise and prioritize. All fiscal and social conservatives are quite clear the best thing Democrats can do for this country is compromise. So you should be very happy.
JOBS?
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Massachusettes job fair canceled due to lack of jobs. More evidence that the job market is improving, at least according to Dear Leader:
http://www.boston.com/business/ticker/2011/03/mass_job_fair_c.html?p1=Local_Links
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RayAmerica,
Thanks for that link.
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This just out: unemployment figures dip to below 9%. Unfortunately, under employment has increased to over 20%. The spin machine is working over time. I wonder if it is protected by a union?
http://www.gallup.com/poll/127091/underemployment-rises-march.aspx