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Ok, let your collective minds wander for a second.
You are producing a movie about the housing bubble; you cast Bruce Lee as the archetype fat stack boomer overlord, one who has always somehow done everything right. The Zen of Being a Boomer.
You then cast Chuck Norris and Steven Seagal as prospective tenants who have to go "mano a mano" for the “privilege” of paying ~45% of Bruce's mortgage on the flea ridden $hitbox.
Who wins?
My money is on Chuck as tenant.
Ok, who wins when Bruce tries to up Chuck’s rent?
I said “upchuck”.
This whole thing makes me sick.
One could cast Jean Claude in a cameo, but then there would be double the Van Damage and who needs that?
Who would you cast as the trolls?
Who plays David L?
I have already cast Jenna Jameson as Leslie Appleton-Young.
Dreamworks SKG just gave this the "greenlight".
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surfer-x's website
according to zillow someone bought that piece of shit last year for 655
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Even Merrill agrees: http://rsch1.ml.com/9093/24013/ds/07045450.PDF
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Paul,
Those are some nice graphs. I fear that only a quant could appreciate them though. Would it have killed them to apply some simple exponential smoothing?
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Paul,
Great link! David Rosenberg has been "on our team" almost from inception even if it didn't exactly make him pop pop popular within his own community. Everybody else was either in denial, tap dancing or peddling the soft landing scenario. I just loved his comments on this one b/c he now senses that he has been vindicated and can speak more freely.
I'm sure he (like Randy H) could've talked way over our heads but he took the pains to put it in plain english to exhibit exactly where he and his data stand! I want to be his kids godfather for crissakes!
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Randy H,
"Exponential smoothing" aside when the line falls off the bottom of the chart (or top, as in the case of swelling inventory) does it really matter?
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"I Spit on your Granite Countertops!"
Stevan Segal is a muppet. He'll just end up crying when Chuck Norris bitchslaps him from here to next wednesday.
Replace him instead with the worthy Hulk Hogan, especially if he signs the contracts wearing this:
http://tinyurl.com/qe3gg
You really can't go wrong with a guy in a day-glo yellow Speedo...
(many thanks to txchick for pointing this out on Bens' Blog a few days ago)
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That is a disturbing tan...that really shows off the speedo.
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John,
As you know, we common citizens, are all hurt by inflation! It's just one more form of theft! Ben has already lost the economy and the coming fall elections of the republicans is lost too. He may as well go for it and be a real inflation fighter (as he wants investors to believe) and as you say hike rates to 9% where they should be anyway. Perhaps it would keep the dollar from going into free fall.
Paul
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Different Sean's website
DinOR Says:
Basically the “shell house” should be sold for the value of the lot alone. I’m no expert but I think common sense would dictate that this “abortion that lived” is of no value.
minus demolition and site remediation costs... :P
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Bruce Lee forgot more about Martial Arts than Chuck "Can't Act" Norris ever knew ;)
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Surfer-x Says:
Just sent “Greg” the following,
Hi Greg,
"I kindly submit the following offer on this great property.
$125.00 and a bag of cat shit. Let me know if your client accepts..."
_____
Ha, ha!
More preciousness!
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“micro-homes.”
yes, i think that's the answer to land speculation -- keep feeding the beast and make the homes smaller, altho it's the land price that really hurts... i think we should prop up land speculators and boomers forever, and just be at their beck and call -- whoever got there first, wins... another brilliant idea proposed right here(!) was to convert every floor into 2 strata'd levels of about 5' each to crawl around in... this is the happy compromise between suburban sprawl and mcmansions and living in a tent -- or a honda civic -- note how the need for urban consolidation and sustainaiblity and affordability is so well met -- when you put apartments near amenities and public transport, they immediately become unaffordable to all but an equity-bearing elite...
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I'm thinking some sort of Princess Mononoke tale. I just hope Cote' isn't mounting the last stand of the wild boar.
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For anyone interested, some econ graphs stuff I drew up last week describing buyer & seller stickiness in the current market. I'd be especially grateful to any economics minded folks who'd be willing to offer up criticisms or point out problems.
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From the ABC article:
"Currently, only nine percent of individuals living in San Diego can afford a median-priced home," Russell says. "In San Francisco, something like two percent of nurses, five percent of cops and four percent of teachers can afford a median-priced home. So from what we're looking at, there are not enough affordable homes in America."(my italics)
So...you're going to make more? OK, its 7.30 am on a sunday, and I haven't had enough coffee yet...but that sort of implies that, rather than dealing with the massive oversupply of property already existing, you're going to just ignore it, call it 'unaffordable' (rather than make it affordable to the nurses, teachers.etc) and build more, smaller, stuff you can then sell at a premium?
I'm all for small is beautiful - I grew up in London where your average 2 bed flat is the size of an american living room, and you had to fight everyone for the one bathroom in the house..but deal with the Munster House/McMansions first, and worry about the the rest later.
@ Randy H....ahh, Miazake...he's my personal hero. I wonder, once the housing market plunges us into a Great Depression, if I'll get a giant wolf to ride around on, rather than an SUV.
As long as we don't all end up like those poor kids in "Grave of the Fireflies".
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It is people like you who are tearing this country apart. US is built on positiveness, couragement, pioneering.
Cote' was mistaken. I awake to find myself in the Spring of 2000. The dot-com bubble is collapsing around me, as I sit in my ridiculously overcapitalized office overlooking the Bay in Redwood City. How many tenants of this complex closed shop this week? No worries, I'm sure our unique spin on B2B supply chain optimization is just what the world has awaiting, and we're but months away from IPO riches and our but well deserved millions.
I am heartened to turn to my daily fix of industry publications and VC new briefs and find that if only we remain optimistic, and believe this current downturn will be seen as the death throws of the old economy. After all, America has entered the Long Boom. I glance at a reprint from that Wired cover, framed, hanging on the wall outside my office.
(Luckily for this contrarian I worked from home the rest of that week, sold off any and all remaining tech speculative stocks, got in touch with old-economy contacts and reclaimed my former honest living before it was too late.)
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Randy H,
Well exactly, and thank you!
What this country really needs is more fast, loose and easy money!
Why shouldn't a mortgage broker with an 8th grade education (and a limited vocabulary) make 250K right out of HS? What's so wrong with that? Isn't tax free money for contributing nothing more than half assed fake wood flooring on your weekend what America is really all about?
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"There is too much at stake. BUY AND HOLD"
How about NO THANKS AND I'LL PASS?
If we would all just stop being so damn NEGATIVE this will blow over and be fine!
Sorry budd-ro. Attitude won't fix this mess. No amount of "can do" will turn this thing around. Perhaps if FB's lost their insatiable appetite for ever greater debt in say 2003 we could have gotten through with a mild set back to 2000 prices. Obviously our national addiction with
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(cont.) sorry,
national addiction with free and or cheap money has lead us down a dark alley. Now that ALL FB's are terminal they're thinking about "cutting down" on their smoking. Well, it don't work like that!
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and the funniest thing was the part about CA being "relatively cheap". I guess it's all in how you define "relative". If we ignore the 150%+ appreciation over 3 years in many SF Bay Area neighborhoods, sure, things are looking "relatively cheap".
relative to reality, on the other hand...
Anecdotally, I learned of yet 2 more colleagues who've sold and are renting. I'm sure that neither were FBs. My old biz partner in Chicago has also sold out her properties and retreated to occupying a condo/loft she used to rent out (which she's owned for 12 years and has 100% equity).
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"RE will be relatively cheap (especially in Haiti, Borneo and FARC controlled areas of the Colombian jungle). Just wait a month or two?
Are these people SO ADDICTED to free money they actually believe a month or two is actually going to make difference? Let alone to the UPSIDE?
Yeah, another month or so and this "cool down" period will be over and everything will back to normal. Right.
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the Wicker Man 1973
One of my all-time favorites.
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Economic fundamentals look pretty good.
Something tells me that they will turn bad. I am optimistic that people will suffer. See, I am not that negative, just mean. Then again, the human civilization is a farce.
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Buttered scones? Ewww. None of that Western European namby pamby pastry cr@p for me. I’m an English muffin or Bagel/cream cheese/smoked salmon guy.
Buttered scones? You need devonshire cream. 60% milk fat. Yum!
I like muffin. Bagel is too hard for me. Where can I get good smoked salmon?
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A farce perhaps, but a farce capable of producing good salmon and Devonshire cream.
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A farce perhaps, but a farce capable of producing good salmon and Devonshire cream.
This is why I am still laughing.
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Saw a bungalow in Ventura yesterday, it is listed at 528K, I offered $475, the realtwhore called me up to inform me that Ventura is a "luxury" destination and it is up anywhere from 15-40% YOY. Odd, I thought that it is crashing. Even funny that the fool called on a Sunday. I politely informed her of the reality, +40% more listings on the market and hung up.
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SFWoman,
BTW, came across this website on pawpaws http://www.pawpaw.kysu.edu/pawpaw/cvsrc98.htm
There's a couple CA selected varieties with low chill requirements.
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Saw a bungalow in Ventura yesterday, it is listed at 528K, I offered $475, the realtwhore called me up to inform me that Ventura is a “luxury” destination and it is up anywhere from 15-40% YOY.
LOL :lol:
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I predict that in another 18 months, all "luxury" destinations will be off 25% or more from their peaks.
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College real estate?
http://www.forbes.com/2006/08/21/college-realestate-investments_cx_lr_0822aplus.html?partner=rss
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Let me guess you’re also anti Bush?
I actually like Bush just fine.
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surfer-x's website
Peter P. I've already used the Troll-b-gone.
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Peter P. I’ve already used the Troll-b-gone.
Thanks! He sounds a bit like the one near the Palace of Fine Arts though. :)
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What darkens my door now that we are CLEARLY past the market's peak is all the "drift wood" this debacle will leave behind. All of the flippers, floppers, mortgage brokers and realtwhores that have had a taste of easy money and have NO DESIGNS on ever "working" again!
Most folks here aren't really exposed to it but I have to look at it EVERYDAY! The wheel barrow that used to deliver the money faithfully every six months now has a flat tire and won't be making the rounds. These people are totally listless! They're stressed out to the max and don't know what comes next (but suspect it ain't good).
In addition to GROSSLY overpaying for their homes they now realize their pay (and skills) have stagnated. Being as they won't be getting that regular cash infusion they are now finally no longer focused on their "cash machine" and have taken a sudden interest into that "bothersome routine" that keeps them from their beloved big screen TV.
Ahem, while you were busy installing "up grade fru fru" we thought you wouldn't mind if we doubled your health insurance premiums (while jacking up your co-pay) and at the same time did away with that stipend of a company match in your 401K. Btw we took a "vote" and for you just to keep your old rate of pay we'll be using the employee lounge as a warehouse but you're welcome to eat lunch and take breaks in your car.
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DinOR,
So many Americans act like there's no such thing as scarcity. That's what drives the illogical bubbles. These people actually believe there are no constraints to them getting wealthier and wealthier with no extra work. A lot of people have been living $200K/yr lifestyles on $60K/yr income.
It'll be fun and educational to see these people fall flat on their face.
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It’ll be fun and educational to see these people fall flat on their face.
We need to watch out for collateral damage though.
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So on today’s Merc’s real estate section KB homes advertise a hugely succesful weekend last week on the Milpitas development, they did mention 3000 people show up but free food was available.
They are also offering gift cards and other goodies. I keep getting e-mail from them. My wife actually wanted to go just for the goodies. There is no way I am going to live next to a prison.
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surfer-x's website
Hmmm didn't realtwhore.com used to list the days on market? They don't any longer, I wonder why?
Odd.
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There is no way I am going to live next to a prison.
Isn't a condo declining in value bought with a toxic loan a prison also?