Watch
A quote from the Chronicle:
National housing prices took a record fall in September as the pace of sales skidded for the sixth consecutive month.
The median price for an existing home nationwide -- including single-family houses, condos and co-ops -- dropped 2.2 percent to $220,000 from $225,000 a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors. It was the biggest drop on an annual basis in monthly housing prices on record.
Meanwhile, the pace of sales last month was off 14.2 percent from a year ago.
In California existing home prices appear to be weathering the downturn slightly better than the rest of the country, a fact that some economists attribute to good economic conditions and a relatively tight housing supply compared with other states.
The median price of an existing single-family home in California climbed 1.8 percent to $553,050 last month from $543,510 in September 2005, according to the California Association of Realtors.
"Home prices are still holding up in California, first of all because the job market is still respectable," said Lawrence Yun, senior economist for the National Association of Realtors. "The technology job market in the Bay Area, in San Francisco and San Jose, is really coming around strongly, and those are high-paying jobs."
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Michael, Thanks for posting the thread. The spin of this article clearly is, "California is different." We'll see about that.
As SF Woman pointed out, the uptick in median price in CA is still below annual inflation. Good ROI, Mr Flipper!
Let's see what the Chronic-le has to spin, er, say about the new home sales numbers...
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tsusiat's website
California will be the last domino to tumble, that's all.
Ask anyone in San Diego trying to sell a condo right now if prices are up.
The spin that buyers are waiting for something they're not going to see is pure wishful thinking on the part of sellers and realtors.
If buyers wait, they will see the prices they want. It will just take a little time.
Imagine the panic and hysteria next spring if the current inventory is still sitting there as next years sellers add to the pile?
Ouch.
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I respect people that have the guts to "make the call" on a peak or trough but Chris Thornberg does everyone a disservice by placing it in 2007. It tends to imply if you can hold your breath that long that a turn around will be at hand. Had "I" been making that statement I would have qualified it by adding,
"Even though we won't see the bottom until sometime in 2007 don't look for a return to the outrageous appreciation we've enjoyed in the past several years. We're by no means out of the woods and there will be several false starts before meaningful traction is gained".
Doesn't that create for more realistic expectations?
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Oh, saying "We have a big issue on our hands" to me anyway, tends to indicate that it will be a "bottom feeders paradise" the minute the dust settles.
While prospective buyers "might" be able to find a more reasonable entry point it would be irresponsible to imply that we'll have found the "keys to the old man's 1999 Time Machine" for another thrilling joy ride.
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@DinOR,
There's data (like today's new home sales numbers), and then there's the cacophony of pundits and economists whose living it is to opine about crap. Every opinion that gets quoted, every paper they publish, it's another notch on the CV. Hell, they can be wrong half the time - that's probably no worse than anyone else, so there's no credibility lost.
We're all armchair economists on this board, anyway. Only we don't make a living off of our predictions (at least I don't).
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Captain, I think we have soft-landed. But there is a cliff in front of us.
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Could we as a country be entering the perfect storm.....
Iraq
N Korea
Iran
Housing Bubble
Dow at all-time high
Dems take over and raise taxes
I hate to sound doom and gloom but it's hard to be optimistic
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Home prices are still holding up in California
Because Californians are slower than the rest of the country? I bet Hawaii is holding up even better. :)
It is a "time zone" thing.
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Could we as a country be entering the perfect storm…..
I still think the proliferation of veganism is more worrisome than the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
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GammaRaze's website
If CA is last to fall, it could also mean that it falls the hardest. That is how it is in most bubble scenarios.
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skibum,
Yeah, I hear ya' I'm just a little critical of Chris of late as he seems to be back peddling from his early positions while still w/ Ed Leamer at the Anderson Report.
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austingal,
I'm not sure I'm qualified to speak to the use of a RE atty. for a closing and I'm real sure I'm not qual'd to give out advice to pregnant women!
Randy H has used one that I believe came highly rec'd and seems satisfied. Then there are the horror stories where they charge excessively and botch the whole transaction in the process. In other words, nice work if you can get it.
We had the option to buy our existing rental about a year and half ago and are still glad we didn't. The CA Equity Locusts are about to be cut off from their primary source of funding and will soon be left stranded trying to figure out what the hell they're doing in Texas? Me? With all the data that's coming out, I'd rent if you can tolerate it. A "few hundred bucks" is 2,400 to 3,600 a year? Not huge but...... meaningful.
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Very much off topic, but I couldn't resist. Apparently Casey Serin has taken a shine to our very own SQT. Maybe he worked out what the QT stands for, or maybe she's convinced him of the error in his ways?
@SQT: hey! another local person. Lets get together for lunch of something. Where do you live. Maybe you can help me convince the haters that this thing is real.
So the real question is, should we send Surfer-X to meet Casey for lunch in SQT's stead?
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I didn't read far enough.
@SQT: I will show you my mortgage docs and closing statements over lunch if you want.. and take you to the properties.. and walk you to the recorder’s office and show you the recorded deeds… so come on… swing on by sometime!
Hell, maybe I'll go with Surfer-X to "have lunch" with this joker.
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@austingal,
Congratulations on the pregnancy. I don't know if it's your first, but here's a small piece of advice. The nesting instinct can come on something fierce during the last trimester, and if you're considering buying, you should be aware of its emotional influence on your housing decisions. I know this from personal experience. We had to sell during my wife's third trimester, and it wasn't pretty.
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Yikes! Homebuilders take no prisoners on the way down. Nothing like a capitalist to spoil the comps (and I imagine still a lot of "hidden goodies" for the price?) Has anyone seen CA specific new home numbers?
HOME INVENTORIES EASED
New single-family home sales increased 5.3 percent in September to an annualized rate of 1.075 million from a downwardly revised rate of 1.021 million in August. Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting September sales to ease to a 1.045 million rate from an originally reported August rate of 1.050 million.
However, September sales were down 14.2 percent from the 1.253 million annualized rate in September 2005.
The median sales price of a new home fell 9.3 percent to $217,100 in September from $239,300 in August as builders cut prices to lure buyers. The September median was down 9.7 percent from $240,400 a year earlier, representing the biggest year-on-year price drop since December 1970, when the median price fell 11.2 percent.
The supply of homes available for sale in September at the current sales pace fell to 6.4 months' worth from 6.8 months in August. There were 557,000 homes available for sale at the end of September, down 1.9 percent from 568,000 in August.
"Between the starts and the aggressive pricing on sales they are clearing inventories in a very rapid fashion," said Societe Generale's Gallagher.
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Maybe he worked out what the QT stands for
What else can QT stand for? Q-tips?
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Queen of Tangents. ;)
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(sing along): SQT and Casey sitting in a tree, k-i-s-s-i-n-g...
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I’ve been voted (voted??) Queen? Coool.
No voting in a monarchy.