WatchThis topic has been brought up in previous threads, but I thought we should revisit it again.
Many of us are waiting to purchase homes based on anticipated declines in the housing market, and each of us may or may not purchase based on whatever market parameters and/or personal issues we care about. Some of us have a fair amount of cash to park somewhere waiting for the right time to use some or all of it for a home purchase. The question is, where should one put all this cash, based on today's conditions?
Stocks, mutual funds and that general asset class have had very good returns over the past several years, but the stock market appears to be possibly sputtering of late. Hard commodities like oil, gold and other precious metals are good if you are a doomsayer and expect geopolitical turmoil. However, oil has done quite the flop lately, maybe having something to do with elections coming up, maybe not. There are always bonds and treasuries, but is the bond market in a bearish mood right now? A lot of this depends on what the Fed may or may not do with interest rates in the future. And, there's always cash. CD rates have held up, but where could they be headed - up or down?
Finally, how liquid do you need to keep your cash? Are you going to decide you need it for a down payment within a month or two, making some of these options (longer term bonds, for example) less attractive?
What is the best strategy for you?
skibum
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Actually, I vote to unabn MP/FR. What damage can they do?
The added benefit is that it results in more frequent visits by Surfer-X.
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I propose an open arm policy for CR/MP/FR and GC.
Current threats:
1. Boredom
2. Beating dead horses
3. Spam
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RE: CR, good points. It's good to have a resident realtwhore to kick around once in a while (no offense, George).
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The added benefit is that it results in more frequent visits by Surfer-X.
Yes. Let's focus the IP banning from spambots and jukubots.
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2. Beating dead horses
Didn't we vote on a prop related to that a few years back?
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I propose more home design and architecture discussions. Socketsite is doing a pretty good job at that currently.
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I do one trade every 2-3 months. All my shorts have been successful. Of course, this does not say anything. But we shall see how this short trade pans out.
Yeah, all of my trades have been successful too - for either me or the other party.
Don't forget folks, this is the genius urging that Connor kid to buy Gold at $730...
For the record, I've been long CVX and XOM for sometime. Dividends... yum. YHOO... um....
House downpayment in Money Markets, laddered CDs and I-bonds. Bah Humbug. I'm sick of being beat upon by the loose money policy, but at least most of us have jobs.
Labor crunch coming. More inflation?
http://economist.com/business/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8079134
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skibum,
I'm not in the habit of defending the positions taken by economists or analysts but when we think about it I believe it is very plausible.
True, 2/3rds of our economy is consumer driven but there are things we can buy besides hummers and big screens with MEW! If everyone elected to "right-size" their residence and utterly abandoned McAlbatrosses en' masse it's lenders, builders and suppliers that would be the bagholders, not Oracle and Nike!
There are things in this country that don't correlate with housing. Like I say, housing has for many years been a legitimate core industry. They weren't satisfied with that and wanted to become THE ONLY industry with everything else having only a supporting role! We've contorted lending standards, tax laws, everything to accommodate and it didn't work.
Time for a new growth engine.
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Let's convert McAlbatrosses into condos!
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@David Jackson,
Do you buy at Best Buy or Target or Walmart?
[Hint: Most of thier stuff is NOT made in the US]
Nothing wrong with owning companies that do operational hedging. I own all these through indices. What I am talking about is then adding in your own additional hedging.
Example: Best Buy purchases lots of stuff in JPYs. They hedge the hell out of their currency flows with techniques like transfer pricing. If I then go ahead and hedge the USD/JPY rate, what is the result?
[Hint: Any hedging in excess of the delta hedge ratio will reduce the reward/risk ratio]
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Let’s convert them to factories!
I do not have much faith in manufacturing.
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re: commodity investments. I lost a few ducats on oil stocks a year ago but cut my losses quickly. lesson learned. the volatility of those type of stocks makes it feel more like gambling than anything else. i am reminded of the Sicilian in Princess Bride.
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There are things in this country that don’t correlate with housing. Like I say, housing has for many years been a legitimate core industry.
...
Time for a new growth engine.
@DinOR,
The problem is, how can the US make yet another smooth transition to another growth engine, as the housing industry is already clearly in the midst of tanking? Does Benny B have any ideas? Besides, I think most economists you read about are underestimating the reach of the REIC boom's effect on the overall economy. Construction materials and jobs, finance and mtg industry jobs, realtor jobs, home furnishings, and it goes on and on.
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People here who'd encourage gambling on commodities, usually Gold, with their life savings are the equivalent to the jackasses who yell "jump" up to someone standing out on the ledge.
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I'm seriously doubting America will turn it's back on McMansions in one fell swoop but I hope we can agree the peak of their popularity has come and gone?
The REIC and the country have taken this whole thing as far as it will go and then some. Unless we're willing to move the cap. gains exemption to 500K for singles and 1mil for couples along with making the 50 year mortgage "the standard" we're going to have to look else where for growth!
That's what's so upsetting for me. So much of the debate has been structured around "what can we do to get housing back on track?" Lower rates? (always first option) give away vacations? BMW's?
Let it go for crissakes!
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People here who’d encourage gambling on commodities, usually Gold, with their life savings are the equivalent to the jackasses who yell “jump” up to someone standing out on the ledge.
The concept of risk capital (play money) is important.
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skibum,
Well, that's a good point. Seldom do growth engines surrender without a fight (railroads etc.) and seldom is it "smooth".
The reason I guess it's easy for me to be dismissive about what becomes of those employed by the REIC is that so many of them are migratory anyway! I'd guess at one time 1/4 to 1/3 of the MB's were at one time stockbrokers! Construction workers are so migratory they go from state to state and job to job (and often fit the profile of serial killers btw). No, I'm not kidding.
There's a certain percentage of our population that always follows whatever is "hot". It's always been that way. Most will adapt, some won't and class guys like George will tough it out. It seems like right now we're more worried about it than they are.
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Share your opinions on bannings/unbannings:
Unbanning Trolls: A town hall discussion (next thread)
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SF Woman
Sounds like a good book - my current problem is not enough storage - I am sure the clutter in our house is a bad influence on my kids.
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OT - has anyone else noticed there is a thin picking of houses to rent in Mountain View/Los Altos?
I was hoping FB's would be putting houses up for rent, but it doesn't seem to be the case in this area. I was thinking this would be an indicator of the state of the market and FB's in the area.
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Peter P. you might enjoy the book.
Thanks. I will take a look. :)
my current problem is not enough storage
Try donating some stuff away. It may help.
I do think that storage space is important.
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HARM's website
The REIC and the country have taken this whole thing as far as it will go and then some.
I had thought so too, but apparently not:
Cash-out refinancing hits peak
Homeowners are tapping their equity at highest rate in 16 years
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I meant to add, what do other people observe in their areas - i.e. houses for sale vs. houses for rent - numbers increasing /decreasing?
One problem we may all have to look out for - which I didn't realize is (but you may all know already) that in order to view a house that is occupied by a renter, you have to put an offer in first. Or so someone told me.
Is that why a lot of people get kicked out of their rental before it is sold?
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One problem we may all have to look out for - which I didn’t realize is (but you may all know already) that in order to view a house that is occupied by a renter, you have to put an offer in first. Or so someone told me.
Is that why a lot of people get kicked out of their rental before it is sold?
I would imagine its up to the landlord/seller. The reality is that it's easier to sell a empty (staged) house than one with "lowly" renters - at least that's what I would iamgine.
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OT - has anyone else noticed there is a thin picking of houses to rent in Mountain View/Los Altos?
Tell me about it. Apartments are back to being pretty pricey as well. :(
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Man... that CNN link leads to so many other hillarious links... like this one:
http://money.cnn.com/popups/2006/moneymag/25_rules/3.html
25 Rules to Grow Rich By
3. Spend no more than 2 1/2 times your income on a home.
The median income in Santa Clara is around $97k - that means you should only spend $242,000 on a home?
You've got to be kidding me. Even when I was a kid this 2.5x rule was impossible.
It's a good intent, but they might as well have said "Spend no more than 50cents per gallon for gas."
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You’ve got to be kidding me. Even when I was a kid this 2.5x rule was impossible.
Perhaps it meant:
Spend no more than 2 1/2 times your monthly income on a home mortgage.
Be creative. Just not too creative. Otherwise it would be destructive.
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2.5? Maybe that textbook was (c) 1947. After the Depression and War that number may have held, but at least the data I can see is more like 5.5.
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SFWoman,
I think the main problems are paper paper everywhere and the kids are toy hoarders. Plus, like yourself I am a book hoarder, but mainly the kids books.
Oh, and because of rats, we cannot store anything in the garage - so Costco shopping is really challenging - what to do with the 6 million toilet rolls, straws, napkins etc that seemed such a bargain at the time. Let alone the water we keep onhand.
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I think Peak Oil is about the only thing that will kill our appetite for McMansions. BTW, half of "The End of Suburbia" is now on YouTube and it provides some good background on the "birth of the McMansion".
FRIFY, good to see some else long on oil. No idea how these "investments" will perform when oil peaks, but those dividends are nice in the mean time. I also like the prospects for natural gas. BTW, my "down payment" is already in my house.... any ideas on how to defend my "paper gains" (which may soon disappear). Time to refi and buy CME housing options? Or something more sensible like buy some neighborhood real estate to boost local comps :-)
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If you have a real rat problem they would probably eat through the plastic to get at food, but maybe not at toilet paper?
Get a Maine Coon.
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Otto,
Well, you're in luck, weil ich deutsch sprechen kann. I'll see if I can find the article online.
I'll take your bet if you make it 1EUR, or better yet 1.5CHF lol.
I would point out that I take Der Spiegel with a grain of salt. Remember their "Der naechste Krieg?" articles? Reflective of much German sentiment, that magazine likes to come up with some imaginative ends of US dominance. Maybe they've got some lingering resentment from der Infationszeit.
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Yep, the rats have eaten through several plastic containers.
Even the landlord "joked" and said we should get a cat - and then he realized what he had said - we are not allowed to have a cat.
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http://www.cde.ca.gov/ta/ac/ap/
dan l. - showing my ignorance - not sure where Belmont is - but for CA you can use the above link to get API scores
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Mountain View, CA
Although I'm not sure all areas are covered
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What I'd like to see more of are nooks and cranny storage spaces and organized closet spaces. That was the really great feature of Japanese houses OO linked to a couple month's back.
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Different Sean's website
And DS, by the way, if there ever were hyperinflation, then fixed rate mortgage debt would be among the most valuable instruments one could hold. Remember that inflation increases the value to fixed rate debt holders and punishes savers.
hmm, that was my point. maybe it was too oblique. you would have to have fixed rate interest, yes, otherwise your interest payments would skyrocket too, as in brazil, where mortgages are something like 5% a month. the well off in brazil just don't take out mortgages. but my point was that with a rapidly devaluing dollar, your original principal amount would also devalue rapidly, making it extremely easy to pay off. savers would be punished, yes. in slow motion, that is the effect that we get anyway -- over 20 years, even 'low' inflation of say 2-4% makes it easier for people to pay off their mortgages -- in fact, some of the property-selling 'gurus' use this artifact as an enticement to get people to buy multiple properties to hold forever, as inflation will take its natural course, rents will go up, and you will be a comfortable landlord in, hmm, maybe 25 years...
why do people read the opposite of what i say? they seem to misunderstand when i say america is doomed and contains the seeds of its own destruction too, and read all sorts of dire things into it :P
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SP,
Absolutely. There's no guarantee on the speedy recovery of cash from the FDIC. A year would certainly not be unusual-pretty terrible in a high inflation environment.
It always helps to keep some gold (coins or simple 24K jewelry) on hand for emergency bartering purposes.
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I've got it all liquid some in CD's some in a MM acct alot of gold I'm a jeweler. I don't trust the stock market anymore since 2000. I don't think we have even seen the broader indications of the HB breakdown. Next year will be the landmark year. The prediction of recession, stagflation, depression all likely. Laugh all you want about the money under your mattress scenario. I think if massive job losses occur nationwide and that is also likely if the HB slays the economy cash will be king. Most of where not even born when the great depression happened. We may well be tested as a country those of us who have lived lean and mean and rented may do better than most of the faux on paper affluent debtors.
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I'm going LONG on canned food and shotgun shells :-)
Just kidding. Depends on your time horizon. I bought into the stock market in 2002 and 2003 during the long slide. Now, many of those purchases have a decent return. But I have a long view, generally speaking.
As someone else said if you interest is 6-months to 1-year then CD's, bonds, mutual funds are the way to go. Even NetBank had a pretty decent interest rate on their money-market account last time I looked. I got fed up with them due to their inability to bank-link my BankofAmerica account though.
If your time-frame is short, then even Index Funds and ETF's I would not consider safe. QQQQ for example if you bought it a year ago like a friend did you'd still be waiting for it to change from red to green.