Watch
Patrick.net was featured in a SFGate.com article today. We all saw Ben Jones' blog featured in Business Week. According to author Carol Lloyd, NPR has been snooping around here for sources to interview (although that's yet to be verified, if you've been emailed or called by an NPR researcher/reporter, let us know).
What is the real impact of Bubble Blogs? Undeniably, blogs in general have quickly become established as a powerful alternate form of media. But blogs as a source of information are also often criticized for being raw, unedited, and often biased or outright inaccurate. It's even possible to find self-proclaimed internet curmudgeons criticizing blogs and bloggers in a blog.
Has this blog, and the other pioneers which took on the growing insanity of the real-estate bubble, really had a meaningful impact? I still maintain that blogs only affect the wider public sentiment on the margins. Most people do not receive their information through blogs. Those who still read consume simplified infografix color newspapers, the rest figure it out from commercials they forget to skip while watching something they Tivo'd. But, maybe affecting the margins is all that really matters. If we've helped to turn the few in the front of the herd, then the rest will follow.
Finally, what about anonymity? The largest single criticism leveled at blogs, and increasingly at Bubble Blogs, is that all the resident "experts" and "pundits" are anonymous. Anonymity breeds lack of accountability, and questions motives. Of course we aren't all anonymous. Certainly Patrick, Ben and others aren't. Some regular contributors and authors aren't either. But does it even really matter? I am not anonymous, yet I've been accused of being a real estate industry shill, despite the fact anyone can read my resume online. So I'm not so sure it truly makes a difference.
What do you think? Are we helping, hurting, or just fooling ourselves?
--
(Suggestion for thread by FormerAptBroker (FAB), who, while anonymous, is verifiable by this blog's admins just like most of our regular contributors).
--Randy H
Follow
Befriend (5)
44 threads
4,602 comments
Los Altos, CA
Premium
We've certainly had first hand reports from readers of this blog to the effect that they decided to delay purchasing after reading the arguments presented here.
I'm wondering how far the indirect impact reaches. For every "normal" person (read, not a real estate enthusiast, pundit, or pro) who abruptly decides to bubblesit, how many others does that affect, even if just by example.
An anecdotal second hand story. I've mentioned that I have a reliable contact in the RE industry (though not in the agent/broker side) at a big, exclusive, high-net-worth agency. He overheard two agents last week complaining that a buyer of a multi-million place in SF had walked away before closing the deal. The agent directly blamed "the internet, where there's so much false data". He told me he quietly chuckled and wondered if it was this blog that was "the internet" in that case.
Follow
Befriend
1 threads
6,749 comments
Premium
"Are we helping, hurting or just fooling ourselves"
It depends on who you ask.
If you're a realtor (or just play one on TV) we're definitely hurting! We've provided a venue for those "on the fence" and perhaps have begun to question the MSM. If three people constitutes a "gaggle" at the water cooler we've somehow managed to gather about 10,000 people around this one. Realtors wish we would just choke, puke and die.
We're helping the legions of posters and lurkers that just can't seem to find the "real dope" no matter how much research they try to get their hands on. If it were not for this blog and the ability connect w/other housing bears how long would it be before I questioned my own position?
We're fooling ourselves if we think we can save those that don't want to be saved. Knife catchers and GF's would continue to pursue easy money with us or without us.
Anonymity? For those that are "industry neutral" (meaning their livlihoods are not contingent on their personal observations and opinions) I applaud their courage. As the bust becomes more widespread and flat out undeniable perhaps more of us will reveal our "true identity". For those of us in the investment arena venturing the "wrong" political opinion can be career ending! But who knows? Most of us are hardly "hams" but who among us can resist a 'victory lap' after being SO right?
Follow
Befriend
1 threads
6,749 comments
Premium
George,
Hey George!
Follow
Befriend (5)
44 threads
4,602 comments
Los Altos, CA
Premium
The standard is a lot lower, but the insight can be just as valuable.
I'm not sure even that is true. There are plenty of blogs that exceed the "journalistic standard" exhibited by the mainstream media. NPRs recent inclusion of Casey Serin is a case in point. He/they would experience much tougher standards of proof here than in USA Today or NPR.
Follow
Befriend
660 comments
Mountain View, CA
George
OT - did you persuade your fiance to wait?
Follow
Befriend
23 threads
2,038 comments
surfer-x's website
Can I say fuck on the air?
Follow
Befriend
23 threads
2,038 comments
surfer-x's website
What's our "cut" for the interview?
Follow
Befriend
1 threads
6,749 comments
Premium
LILLL,
You know, that's true. I try to e-mail the folks that tell it like it is and give them kudos whenever possible! What's funny is that on the east coast (where they have wealth outside of real estate) the authors are kind of indifferent about the prospects for a crash! Here out west where RE is as much a religion as anything authors (and their readers) have a natural tendency to get much more emotional about it.
Follow
Befriend
464 comments
Correlation is not causation. The existence of a large number of housing blogs does not accelerate the collapse of RE prices any more than "An Inconvenient Truth" accelerated global warming.
The housing collapse is a slow, wrenching, drawn-out process. As with global warming, there are a lot of commentators predicting doom and gloom. But the actual devastation takes a very long time to play out.
In my opinion, the RE market will only return to sanity when it has to. And that will happen when the people making the decisions are cold, calculating profit-maximizers instead of starry-eyed Trump-wannabes and financially illiterate FBs.
We have seen homebuilders slash prices because they know the jig is up and it is time to unload inventory. This is because the HBs are rational profit-maximizers. Once banks and other lenders find themselves holding massive inventory in a few years, they will do the same. They will make a rational calculation of the expected yield of a home if it is held as a rental property (including all taxes, insurance, management costs, etc.) vs. the expected yield if they slash the price of the home so that it can be sold at whatever price the market will bear. At that point, and only at that point, you should see the relationship between rents and home prices return to normal and you should be able to find some reasonably priced homes.
There is very little that bloggers can do to accelerate this process.
Follow
Befriend (4)
117 threads
17,655 comments
Premium
I have to stress that no blog has the ability to affect mass psychology. We could not have caused any change in price, nor could we have affected homebuying pattern in any significant way.
Follow
Befriend
464 comments
... In other words, don't wait around for sellers to lower their prices because of a blogger-led change in market psychology. Sellers won't voluntarily budge because the August '05 appraised value of their home is "in the bag" as far as they are concerned. The banks will have to lower the prices for them.
Follow
Befriend (5)
44 threads
4,602 comments
Los Altos, CA
Premium
I tend to agree with Glen and Peter P, as is probably evident from my topic article. I think that opinion leaders do matter, and they ultimately affect the larger population even with housing, but it is a slow, painful and unreliable process.
I also think that blogs do not largely affect public sentiment except in very narrow, specific situations. This is changing, but the change will take time as it is essentially a demographic shift. Older generations don't derive as much information from, or trust information they find in alternative media. As they pass, so will traditional media in its current form. But it's all related. Blogs too will change as they rise in importance. This is already happening. There are actually "professional trolls" who are paid to infiltrate influential political blogs of the opposition, as are there viral marketing bloggers.
Follow
Befriend (5)
44 threads
4,602 comments
Los Altos, CA
Premium
Picking up on my last point, the time is approaching (probably faster than any of us expects), when blogs will completely discredit themselves. We're pretty comfortable that the personalities in this community are real people with genuine intentions. But fast forward to a blog 100X bigger than this in reach. At what point does it become profitable for someone to employ a "subversive agent", whether a program or a person, to infiltrate and guide the direction of conversations?
I've mentioned this a long time ago, but I am directly familiar with one venture that works on very sophisticated natural language processing (NLP) software, and applies it to blogs. Their bread and butter is reading sentiment in real-time by parsing blogs and "machine reading" the conversations. They provide feedback to the likes of consumer product companies about how various brands or offerings are being received.
But, they have been working on a pilot (or two) project to reverse the flow. That is, building upon vast databases of NLP parsed conversations on hundreds of millions of topics, they're endeavoring to create smart agents that will be able to search, find and automatically infiltrate blog conversations. Not the dumb spam-bots that just look for the words "real estate" and drop in mortgage broker advertisements. But very subversive "auto trolls" that will establish themselves as real personalities. And, they create their own fans, their own critics, and can cause an opinion-leading blog to shift in sentiment.
All that would be just so much future-fiction musing, except that they've been testing and refining in the real blogosphere for almost two years now. And if they are, there are others doing it too.
Finally, someone will figure out countermeasures. Like anti-spamware, they'll create anti-NLPbot ware. But by then, most people like you and I will have long relegated blogs to the same regard we now hold corporate media: always suspect.
Follow
Befriend
464 comments
Randy,
Do you have something to tell us? Somehow your posts sometimes just seem a little too... perfect. :)
Follow
Befriend
3 threads
1,170 comments
Aww... SFGate didn't mention my blog. Boo. :(
Follow
Befriend (5)
44 threads
4,602 comments
Los Altos, CA
Premium
Do you have something to tell us?
Did I mention my nickname is Turing? lol
Follow
Befriend
2 threads
2,498 comments
RE: the reach of blogs, I see it this way. Popular sentiment is like a big, fat, slow moving amoeba (blob). The amoeba moves by sticking out little outcroppings (pseudopods) back and forth, until one holds and then more follow, and pretty soon the blob has changed direction. I think blogs in general are sort of like these pseudopods, constantly testing out new directions until a larger portion of the amoeba (MSM) follows, and eventually the rest of the "masses."
This is not to say that blogs have any huge influence, but there is probably a real "trickle-down" effect. NPR purportedly hunting around blogs, and rumors on Ben's blog (a few months ago) of various MSM articles and shows basically "lifting" ideas from that blog are clear examples of this.
Follow
Befriend
271 comments
Did I mention my nickname is Turing? lol
Tell me more about why you mention your nickname is Turing? lol
Before he was initially banned, I briefly suspected CG of being a babble-bot with a lookup table of troll remarks fired off in response to key words.
It's coming, if not here already.
Follow
Befriend (4)
117 threads
17,655 comments
Premium
She is convinced that people like me are the ones hurting her.
You did not have the power to hurt her. You merely made a prediction.
However, I think predicting the death of a king is high treason in old England. ;)
Follow
Befriend
2 threads
2,498 comments
@Jon,
Don't worry, you're not missing anything. I'd print the article on this post, but maybe a snoop from the NYT will call us on copyright infringement!
If you want to hear it from the horse's mouth, check this out (was posted on the last thread by someone else):
http://realtytimes.com/rtapages/20061103_campaignneg.htm
Written by that REIC douchebag, Blanche Evans.