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Did we waste an opportunity of a lifetime ?

By StuckInBA   Follow   Mon, 5 Feb 2007, 11:40pm   3,643 views   178 comments
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For years the interest rates have been super low. Many argue that we really didn't need them to be so for so long. But that's what they were. Effectively, the cost of money was super low. That sounds like a good thing. At least it should have been a good thing in my naive viewpoint.

But what do we have to show for this ? We as American society, what is that we have done over last few years that we can look back and be proud about. There is little disagreement about how we blew it on a political and fiscal level. But from a non-government angle, just as a capitalistic society, how do we fare ?

As individuals, we seemed to have completely botched the golden chance given to us. Many homeowners could have refinanced their debt to a super low fixed rate for next 30 years, reduced their monthly cash out flow and increased their equity - all in one shot. But rather they chose to gamble with even lower payments to risk higher payments just a few years down the road. They took cash out of their equity - not to invest or start a productive business - but to consume and now don't have much to show for it.

But what did the businesses do ? Did they use this opportunity wisely ? Have they invested the money that might bear fruits down the road. Some of the reports indicate that many companies in the SP500 index have much stronger balance sheets than what they had a few years ago. What role in it was played by cheap money ? Or was it more due to outsourcing and simply a general recovery after a recession 5-6 years ago ?

Or was this even an opportunity ? I think it was. But then do we have anything to show for it ? There has to be something good that came out of this. Or we collectively just simply blew it all away ? On all fronts ?

StuckInBA

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1. astrid Follow Befriend 15 threads 5,071 comments astrid's website Premium

   139   3:37pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Hmm, for some reason I thought it was a Spanish dish

2. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

   140   3:37pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Making risotto with squid ink is a traditional Venetian dish, or so my cookbook claims. IIRC Cascal on Castro in Mtn View has a paella dish with black ink noodle.

3. astrid Follow Befriend 15 threads 5,071 comments astrid's website Premium

   141   3:37pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   I like fried calamari, as long as it's fresh and made with a very light batter.

4. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

   142   3:39pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   I like fried calamari, as long as it’s fresh and made with a very light batter. Same. I also like calamari or octopus stewed in a spicy tomato sauce.

5. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

   143   3:40pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Actually, tempura batter (light batter with ice + water) is pretty good too.

6. astrid Follow Befriend 15 threads 5,071 comments astrid's website Premium

   144   3:42pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Tempura is good, but I think it would result in too much batter to calamari for my liking.

7. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

   145   3:44pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Tempura is good, but I think it would result in too much batter to calamari for my liking. True. What is the best dipping sauce for calamari? I like mayo.

8. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

   146   3:46pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   My wife loves calamari salad with lime juice and red onion (Thai style).

9. astrid Follow Befriend 15 threads 5,071 comments astrid's website Premium

   147   3:46pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   I have no idea about "best," I prefer malt vinegar or basalmic vinegar on most things.

10. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    148   3:48pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Malt vinegar! I love Fish and chips too.

11. Bruce Follow Befriend 401 comments

    149   3:49pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Peter P's pasta precedent is a classic Venetian dish, spaghetti al nero di seppia... spaghetti in cuttlefish ink. The Corte Sconta, a restaurant in the Castello district of Venice had the 'original' on the menu last winter. It was terrific.

12. astrid Follow Befriend 15 threads 5,071 comments astrid's website Premium

    150   3:50pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Worchester sauce can be very good, especially the Chinese variant.

13. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    151   3:51pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Worchester sauce can be very good, especially the Chinese variant. I use that on Chicken a la King.

14. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    152   3:55pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Wow - I once some cooked beets, forgot about it and gave myself quite a scare the next morning. I wonder if squid ink also has the same effect on your um… post-digestive output. YES it does. Somtimes it will come out BLUE. Forgot what I just said.

15. requiem Follow Befriend 337 comments

    153   4:00pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   SP, this being the Internet and all, I wouldn't be surprised if someone out there has put together a multi-colored ...um... fountain show, kinda like that one in Barcelona /ducks and runs

16. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    154   4:01pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Did we just open the pandora's box?

17. EBGuy Follow Befriend 4 threads 2,094 comments

    155   4:03pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Dinor, You are starting to sound like The Mortgage Professor. Admittedly, half the battle is a psychological game -- paying down the mortgage is an "enforced" savings that can be hard to beat without some discipline.... Oh, and I can only hope for MID phaseouts in the future. Uh-oh, this is starting to sound like a Monty Hall problem: behind door number 1, the SD; door number 2, max 401(k) contribution; and door number 3, MID. Hmmmm, or is this more of a horse/cart issue. My wagon is hitched to MID so now I have to decide if I fully fund the 401(k) (actually SIMPLE IRA). Of course I take the company match off the top, but after that... perhaps some crumbs for a 529. I mean, I can avoid retirement, but not the education expenses :-) StuckInBA said: My investment track record is quite decent Nice call on oil a couple of weeks ago. Are you a weatherman? :-) I'm long Chevron, Conoco, and CHK (for natural gas exposure). Seriously, though, dollar cost averaging indexes over a 30 year period does involve some risk, but I'm willing to bet that you can beat your return from paying down the mortgage. Plus, homes have that ... uhhh... illiquid aspect.

18. StuckInBA Follow Befriend 8 threads 1,513 comments

    156   4:27pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   EBGuy : I went long on XLE. Somehow USO makes me uncomfortable. It's plain luck though. Oil is such a complicated commodity. Politics plays a bigger role. I don't think even the Saudis like $75 a barrel. Seriously, though, dollar cost averaging indexes over a 30 year period does involve some risk, but I’m willing to bet that you can beat your return from paying down the mortgage. Maybe. I should take a look at the bubblizer and see if it can help answer that question. Sounds similar to what it is trying to do. Plus, homes have that … uhhh… illiquid aspect. How much liquidity does one need anyway ? Keep some and have a HELOC ready for more severe emergencies.

19. StuckInBA Follow Befriend 8 threads 1,513 comments

    157   4:36pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Peter P : I am not sure what white sauce will do to that. Even if it is lighter and grayish, hmmm I don't know ... Maybe it was a bad photo.

20. StuckInBA Follow Befriend 8 threads 1,513 comments

    158   4:44pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Stretch : You are in an enviable position. So tell me again, given what you have said about your assets, why do you care about the 50K being liquid ;-) ? Anyway, your guess is as good as mine about interest rates. I don't think the Fed will increase rates. The CPI can be arranged to be kept around 2 forever. You think they will increase the rates in 08 - an election year ?

21. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    159   4:46pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   After age 50 or so, I am banking on working at reduce pay but hopefully still gets medical (if that doesn’t work, I would have to leave the country). CB, 50 is the new 30. :)

22. StuckInBA Follow Befriend 8 threads 1,513 comments

    160   4:52pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Very very relevant to the current discussion. http://tinyurl.com/yudfcy

23. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    161   4:57pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Very very relevant to the current discussion. Oh, it is not about ink pasta any more.

24. StuckInBA Follow Befriend 8 threads 1,513 comments

    162   4:58pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Is this a usual practice or the bank is getting desperate? Don't know about HELOC. But offers for 0% credit card used to land in my mailbox at the rate of 2 per day. Now that's a great way to play the rate arbitrage. Citicard once offered me to have up to 10K transferred into my checking account as cash advance at 0% for one year. I chickened out as I did not have time to read the fine print. But later I found out that it would have been very safe, as long as I make monthly minimum AND remember to pay it back before the rate resets.

25. Paul189 Follow Befriend 667 comments

    163   5:00pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Billion is the new million!

26. e Follow Befriend 3 threads 1,170 comments

    164   5:05pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Citicard once offered me to have up to 10K transferred into my checking account as cash advance at 0% for one year. Usually there's some cash advance fee... though I've seen it capped at $75.

27. e Follow Befriend 3 threads 1,170 comments

    165   5:41pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I told my wife that in the olden days, guys will buy a convertible at age 40, but then she said in the old days, couples reaching 40 usually have kids that are teenagers, not the small children that we have :( When I was graduating college, a number of my high school's friends' fathers died of heart attacks and etc. Some of them were 62/63/64. There are some drawbacks to becoming a jd/mba/phd first before having children sometimes.

28. SFWoman Follow Befriend 450 comments

    166   6:06pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I have the beet color issue, but I have never had the squid or cuttlefish colored issue. I had a cuttlefish risotto at a restaurant called 'La Colombina' in Cannaregio, in Venice a couple of summers ago. The restaurant was fantastic (which isn't easy to find in Venice). You chose either 'meat' or 'seafood', and then a seven or so course meal came out. They were very, very accommodating for my children (made simple pasta dishes for the small picky one). I will absolutely go back there the next time I am in Venice. As to colored fountain shows, I haven't seen one of those, but in about 1990, when I lived in Portland, there were two rather unusual protest groups. One would drink something and then vomit sequentially in red, white and blue. They would protest politicians. The second group was very funny. Whenever one of the homo-obsessed religious groups would come into town to protest that gays exist this group would get signs saying "Leviticus 19:19 neither shall a garment mingled of linen and woolen come upon thee." or Deuteronomy 22:11 22:11 Thou shalt not wear a garment of divers sorts, as of woolen and linen together." Then they would picket Nordstrom for selling mixed fibre clothing.

29. StuckInBA Follow Befriend 8 threads 1,513 comments

    167   6:13pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   One would drink something and then vomit sequentially in red, white and blue. They would protest politicians. Isn't this a great country or what ?

30. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    168   6:16pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Venice does not smell very nice though. :(

31. StuckInBA Follow Befriend 8 threads 1,513 comments

    169   6:18pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   It has now started in earnest. HSBC and NEW both give BIG bad news. http://tinyurl.com/29g6sb I have a savings account with HSBC Online. It's FDIC insured ... but now has me worried a little bit.

32. SFWoman Follow Befriend 450 comments

    170   6:21pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Peter P., There are better smelling cities, you are right. Bruce, If you have any other restaurant suggestions for Venice please, let me know. I love that city, but find it difficult to find really good restaurants.

33. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    171   6:30pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Is food in Italy still as cheap as 10 years ago?

34. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    172   6:31pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   RE: best smelling city I vote Victoria, BC.

35. HARM Follow Befriend (1) 119 threads 4,785 comments HARM's website

    173   6:37pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   new thread: "Don't Panic!"

36. StuckInBA Follow Befriend 8 threads 1,513 comments

    174   6:39pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Bill Fleckenstein (MSN Investor) warned about the coming problems in home loans at least 2 (maybe 3) years ago. That's where I learned about secondary MBS, stated income loans and assorted information. Couple of years ago he mentioned NEW as a compelling short idea. It has been going downhill since then. Although I did not trade NEW, I made some money on TOL on its way down. He was the first one to give information that saved me from buying a home. So I owe him a lot. If CFC/TOL etc go up tomorrow, I think I will admit to PPT's existence.

37. SFWoman Follow Befriend 450 comments

    175   6:45pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Peter P., In dollars, nothing is as cheap in Italy as 10 years ago.

38. surfer-x Follow Befriend 23 threads 2,038 comments surfer-x's website

    176   9:45pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Oh sweet baby jeebus (not afliated with sweet and sour baby jeebus) the exchange above between Sir Sushi's-alot and Astrid reminds me of a scene in Tampopo.

39. Peter P Follow Befriend (4) 117 threads 17,655 comments Premium

    177   10:49pm Wed 7 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Oh sweet baby jeebus (not afliated with sweet and sour baby jeebus) the exchange above between Sir Sushi’s-alot and Astrid reminds me of a scene in Tampopo. Huh?

40. astrid Follow Befriend 15 threads 5,071 comments astrid's website Premium

    178   3:01pm Thu 8 Feb 2007   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Sir X, Food is an important quality of life issue.

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