WatchI did a quick search about foreclosures in Redwood Shores (94065) and here is what I found.
Just below the map there are 4 tabs. If you click on pre-foreclosure tab, you can see that there are 436 properties in default. Under Auction tab there are 554 properties in Trustee sale. Under Bank owned tab there are 416 properties.
That means there are at least 554 properties for sale by Auction, in addition to those for sale by homeowners that are not in default.
Furthermore. I did a search on Realtor and zillow to see properties for sale. But I only found 69 and 77 listings respectively there.
Does this mean that banks (probably with a blessing from the Feds) are not letting Bank owned and foreclosed properties go to market for fear of prices going even lower?
It seems that this article confirms my analysis.
Am I interpreting the data correctly?
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I wouldn't rely on realtor or zillow for listings. But the general consensus is that the banks are holding onto the properties (with tax payer money to back it up), to prevent you from getting a property at a good price.
The lower the prices go, the more under water people contemplate on walking away, which contributes to their problem even more. It will also bring a whole new crowd of people under water.
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Mountain View, CA
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I was surprised to find that many foreclosures in Redwood shores.... I have always liked that area
Looks like so many POSEURS bought up :-)
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44 male
Egg Harbor City, NJ
Why do you think BeDeers would only release a limited number of diamonds to the market each year? To keep prices high. They know that a huge supply of diamonds hitting the market would rapidly deflate market prices. The same concept applies with houses. Interesting enough DeBeers lost a class action lawsuit for manipulating the market, could a class action lawsuit be in the future for the banks too?
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permanent_marker says
Well like all other areas it went balistic in prices. Prices were around 200-300K for a typical home before the bubble. Went 800K-1M, Just nuts... now part of the correction we are seeing.
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A lot of people complain that realtytrac.com's data is stale. In their numbers, do they include the sold properties as REOs? Not that there were that many, but it seemed like for every 10 properties, one was sold. That reduces the ~500 down to 450. There also may be some double counting. I don't know that area, but Selva, Cork Harbour, and some other streets had 10 listings. They may be separate units in a complex, or they may be 2nd mortgages being counted twice. I'm not saying there is no shadow inventory, but I do think it may be less than these numbers appear to show.
As minor anecdotal evidence, I contacted an owner of one of the houses in an area I was looking that was listed on realtytrac, and they said they received a loan mod, so they weren't selling. That was 2 months ago, and it's still listed on realtytrac and foreclosure radar.
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What the banks are holding is the tip of the iceberg. The other side of the problem is the huge number of properties behind on payments without being foreclosed yet. Any property over 30 days late is pretty much toast, they almost never get back on track. With banks taking as much as 2-3 years to actually foreclose and take the house this represents a huge shadow inventory. Delinquencies are still rising and have been for 37 months. Housing prices going up?
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Mountain View, CA
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one of my fear is
- severly underwater people stop paying their mortgage
- bank takes 2 years to foreclose
- they live there rent free and save up a nice downpayment (4000 x 24 = ~100k)
- when they finally get the boot, they have an advantage with a hefty down payment
- while the rest of us are paying rent....
I hope their credit is ruined for 5-7 years, so they can't get any loan.
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The house I'm interested in buying is on the market now for 465 days. It's a short sale - supposedly - but I think it is just part of this "shadow inventory" you refer to. I did a background check on the "sellers" and learned they filed Ch 7 in 3/09...it was discharged in 5/09....yet they still have some belongings in this house. I am new to this whole market of short sales & foreclosures. I feel discouraged....like even AFTER the system failed....the system is just coming up with new angles to keep game playing with people. I am an interested buyer yet I feel like I can't get a clear picture.
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"Does this mean that banks (probably with a blessing from the Feds) are not letting Bank owned and foreclosed properties go to market for fear of prices going even lower?"
Yes and because "Distressed" properties don't count in the over all appraisal process.
So houses in great condition have the kitchen cabinets removed and the bathroom fixtures removed. You can tell it was professionally done because it was properly removed and not ripped out, and the pipes taken with it. And all of the "Ghost inventory" seem to miraculously suffer from the same affliction. This allows the banks to scuttle these foreclosed houses to Investors of various interests, for 10% or even 20% of market value, and still not effect the value of the over all market. Even though they do inadvertently for the worse in every case. Because these invested houses go for cheap and quick rehab, what all they need is a trip to Home Depot. New kitchen and Bathroom the next day. They are putting them on the market, with mixed results. I'm finding when these investors buy these places for 50K, they are so cheap they splurge and deck out the Kitchen and Bathrooms they really over do them.
They spend at least 50-80K on some of these and quality crown molding and base board.
They then try to relist them for a quick turn around doing all of this in 3 to 6 months.
They start out at around 299K then a month latter 250K then 225K then 210K one sales the news says home sales are up 20%, then they list for 199K then 175K and they end selling for and being appraised at 160K. The folks now getting these houses at today's interest rates are getting a hell of a deal and an excellent upgrade on the fixtures utilities and other house components.
So 6 months to a year latter after buying the places for 50K and spending 80K or so, and dealing with the fight and battle to get the properties at that price that leaves them with a measly 30-40K profit for 6 moths work.
And had to deal with the stress and everything else that goes with swinging that. It's not easy.
Right now it's a buyers market even for these house investor types, and with all of the banks manipulation.
The sad part is, I think "The majority, of people that actually want to buy." to live in right now.
Would pay as much as 200-225K as the base price for a livable house middle class home. If we felt we weren't being Bullshited, we're not dumb, we're trying to buy houses on our street. We know they are empty. We're knocking on the door yelling at the bank telling them "OPEN UP WE CAN HEAR YOU BREATHING IN THERE!", and the Realtards keep presenting the weekly terds offering them up for suitable listings, based on the criteria I gave her. Yet there that home of my dreams down the street that sits empty in need of a nothing more than a $500 cabinet and sink combo. And I can't have it because I don't have Cash.
I'm buying a house that I offered a thousand over what he was asking for, ask for no seller concessions, only stipulated that I wont pay a penny more than my offer Price or the Appraised price, which ever was less. It appraised at 10K less than that.
For the interest rate I'm getting and what I'm paying it's what I've been waiting for.
I could have waiting longer and bought up, for what I'm paying now, but who knows if financing will even be available when we actually see the bottom of this.
They've gone from not asking questions at all to having a loan process that now disqualifies more than 70% of the really qualified buyers. They don't go by tax returns now but look more closely at the past 24 month snap shot, looking for mostly work stability, rather than income.
So once again Rita Sanchez the Cafeteria Worker that never misses a day of work and has been working at Elem Elementary School for 12 years, and has had perfect attendance for the last 24 months. Is more suited for a loan than the guy with 30K in the bank and tax returns that state high 5 low 6 figures, but work commission or has a season where the bulk of his yearly income is made. These guys are not worthy of buying.
These guys that still can't afford to buy even at low prices, will buy and default, and prices will fall even farther.
Back to the investors homes that they can't sell, and have a large chunk of their hard earned cash tied up into them that they can't sell because the best qualified buyers for these houses aren't approved for these houses.
They will turn to renting them out, which pride of ownership goes down and further effects the appraisal price.
We're going to be playing the shell game for a long time, unless we go full blown housing socialization. I say the Democrats that stayed true to the cause, should get all of the best homes in the gated communities, if that even happens.
I'll just carve me out a nook in the Bastille.
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"Interesting enough DeBeers lost a class action lawsuit for manipulating the market, could a class action lawsuit be in the future for the banks too?"
TechGromit,
I think a cartel-busting class-action lawsuit against "extend and pretend" practices of the banks has serious merit and should be pursued by someone who can pull it off. The banks are clearly acting anti-competitively, and likely in collusion (or else they would be competing to unload their properties before the deluge of inventory tanks prices), so someone needs to knock them on their butt. The regulators and politicians are either in the banks' pockets or lack the political will to cause massive deleveraging, so our only recourse might be the judiciary.
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40 threads
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Oakland, CA
I think there must be some kind of behind the scenes market that regular folks aren't able to access.
A house near me a sign just popped up that says sale pending. House looks empty and There was never even a for sale sign there.
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The question of course is: will banks be able to sit on the the properties in Bay area and slowly release them to the market indefinitely until market conditions improve and they could sell them for profit?
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San Bruno, CA
toothfairy says
IMHO there is some dirty things going on. Two streets away from my house there is exactly the same house as mine. My house was for sale at the time for $285,000 and I accepted an offer for $283,000. The exact house came on the market for THREE days and sold for $225,000! I talked to my neighbor who wanted to buy that house and his Realtor could never get access to show him the house. After that sale closed my buyers backed out of the deal due to "recent comps". That house wasn't really for sale it was some type of short sale scam or something dirty and it brought down all the other house prices based on the comps. I have heard similar stories from San Jose where some bank employee is hooking up his friends with foreclosed properties.
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Burbank, CA
xlr8 says
This is happening nationwide, not just in the Bay area. There is an enormous shaddow inventory out there with much more to come. The banks know the market conditions are not going to improve to the point where they will "sell them for profit." Instead, they are holding them back so as not to crash the market even further by driving down prices due to excessive supply, along with very few qualified buyers. This mess took years to create and the insiders know it will take years to correct and work through the enormous number of properties that are on their books. On a personal note: I spoke with a Bank of America work out agent in Texas that told me the situation "is unimaginable." He personally had over 300 short sales that he was working on and said in his department there are "countless" agents doing the same thing. He said the problem is way beyond what the public has been told. And that was just on short sales. Bank owned properties is a completely different problem altogether.