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What do you think comes next. Let this stand as a record of your incredible intuition and insight. Or let it just be a scratch pad for your musings. All takers welcome.
This thread will be permatroll free, my commitment to you. (Don't bother responding to trolls, I'll get around to deleting the comments).
--Randy H
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54 comments
I spaced each word over to give the effect of a declining dow in the above post but everything went over to the left margin when I submitted the post. damn. And "amongst" should probably be "among". That being said, I'm still lovin' the market!
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A ton of closed end funds are now trading at substantial discounts to NAV. Sure is tempting....
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goober, it actually turns out to be a nice effect
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I think that consumer pullback will result in several restaurants around here to close up. Remember when University Ave in PA was full of empty storefronts? Those were the days…
It is quite easy to tell, if a restaurant experiences increasing popularity with significantly increasing prices in the first few months, it will likely make it.
Popular restaurants with pricing power tend to be the best restaurants.
I know many "popular" restaurants are "popular" for pricing only. The moment the economy turns around for the worse, they will close down.
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26 comments
When do you think McDonalds will start offering McSushi for the down and out hip FB?
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McSushi McNuggets anyone? Just take all the extra parts left over after processing, place them in a form press and presto... McSushi McNuggets. 99 cents will get you 5. as Homer would say.. mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm tasty!!
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When do you think McDonalds will start offering McSushi for the down and out hip FB?
I still think McDonalds can improve profitability by offering breakfast all the time.
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Isn't schadenfreude kind of a mean emotion, to delight in the suffering of others?
There's gonna be some long overdue corrections which will hopefully cause a reversion to the norm in economics and in behaviors. It will be painful but overall a good thing just like working out in the gym.
But if I delighted in seeing the pain and suffering of other people then I'd be twisted and sick.
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@sybrib,
We've discussed these "guilty pleasures" before but when you've had 5+ (easily 5+) years of Housing ATM wealth rubbed in your nose it's difficult -not- to get some... pleasure out of this.
We've expressed regret for blue collar guys that simply wanted to buy a home for their families but for the debt=wealth crowd? I have no sympathy.
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Los Altos, CA
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A ton of closed end funds are now trading at substantial discounts to NAV. Sure is tempting….
You better have one hell of a balance sheet to play that game. You could be sitting under water for quite some time.
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Los Altos, CA
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On Schadenfreude:
What many of us feel is not Schadenfreude at all, on a micro level, but is really justice, vindication, maybe even a bit of righteousness (in the purest definition, not the religious connotation).
But since we each cannot find the specific culprits responsible for the ridicule, pain, inconvenience, or losses we've experienced, we instead take those emotions out of the macro whole of the correction. The "nameless" FB who goes whining to some wild eyed reporter about how they cannot afford their $1.3mm mortgage on their $75K/year income. About their *right* to own a house.
When we feel pleasure seeing that situation it is strictly Schadenfreude because we don't really know that FB, their specific situation, the details of what got him or her to that point. In fact, that FB could truly be an innocent victim who was defrauded by someone else. However, we still feel some pleasure at seeing that FB squirm.
Call it a proxy for honest retribution, if it makes you feel better about not being "twisted". I believe all mentally healthy people experience Schadenfreude regularly, they just don't speak of it in polite company. Just like no one admits to masturbat1on.
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DinOR Says:
Herb Greenberg jokes that [E*Trade] is actually a REIT pretending to be a broker?
Funny - that's what they used to say about SGI in the late 90's. That it was a commercial property landlord pretending to be a computer manufacturer. For a while they actually had rental income that was higher than their earnings from operations... although I must say their taste in workplace architecture was really good.
SP
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450 comments
My friend who does TIC deals says there is still a lot of interest in TICs. She does smallish (4-6 unit) buildings in different neighborhoods (Cow Hollow, Ashbury Heights, inner Richmond). She said that she tends to get 30-35ish professionals with good downpayments, and the units are inexpensive (
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sybrib Says:
Isn’t schadenfreude kind of a mean emotion, to delight in the suffering of others?
Duuuude, quit harshing my freude, man. I've had a long decade and need to unwind...
SP
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To paraphrase Irving Berlin... "Die Reinste Freude ist die Schadenfreude"
or more literally, Es gibt kein Freude wie Schadenfreude.
SP
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Isn’t schadenfreude kind of a mean emotion, to delight in the suffering of others?
We are all mean people here. Aren't we?
Jealous. Bitter. Mean. Bubbleheads.
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My friend who does TIC deals says there is still a lot of interest in TICs.
In a true capitalist, this would be considered an anomaly. Apartments and condos should be allowed to convert freely.
And there should be NO rent control.
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Hey, half my comment was eaten...
I was going to ask if anyone else saw the NYT article about Americans financing their plastic surgery.
I think Shadenfreude is mean if we actually are quite happy that undeserved horrid things are happening to people, but rather natural if we see deserved or anticipated things happening to people (a sort of 'they got their just rewards' type of thing).
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"Call it a proxy"
That's what I should've said. It's hard not to take it personally when you're pale, up-tight and just trying to get to the Post Office before the cut-off and you're surrounded by tan people in luxury SUV's that are in no particular hurry without a care in the world?
They're engaging in small talk about their extended vacation in Cabo and how they're looking at this, that or the other specuvestment and all the while you're agonizing over this, that and the other obligations you need to attend to! Sybrib, it's just that they were so smug about it. So self-assured that making money really was just that easy!
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Los Altos, CA
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although I must say their taste in workplace architecture was really good.
Building 13. They had the best cafeteria down there too.
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Los Altos, CA
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Es gibt kein Freude wie Schadenfreude.
Du hast recht.
It's one thing, a quite healthy thing, to quietly feel pleasure in the suffering of FBs. It would be unhealthy to start dancing around, gloating about it. I would bet that no one here, no matter how much glee the feel right now, is running around at work today going "ha ha ha". (Yet someone will post they are doing just that. And maybe anonymously lying on blogs is healthy and natural too...)
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DinOR said:
So self-assured that making money really was just that easy!
You misspelled d-e-b-t.
SP
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Yeah, I know it is risky but this would be something I would intend to hold for a long time, probably my retirement account. I am not going to make any leveraged bets or anything :-)
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Ooops forgot to close my
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i bracket.
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"You misspelled d-e-b-t"
Silly me. That's just it. I've always maintained that you make your money on the "buy side" (whatever your business) but the lure of easily loaned out money made them feel like they couldn't buy, or borrow enough.
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FED doing an emergency meeting? Can they take the pressure from wall street? so far good....
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Redwood City, CA
I expect to get some hate mail for this.
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Los Altos, CA
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I flagged Best-Of. But I'll bet you get flagged out.
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sfbubblebuyer Says:
I expect to get some hate mail for this.
For what it's worth, I too followed Randy's lead and flagged it best-of.
BTW, RandyH said:
I would bet that no one here, no matter how much glee the feel right now, is running around at work today going “ha ha ha”.
Not yet, but getting close. I just got high-fived at lunch by a cow-orker whom I advised not to buy a few months ago. He had been under some pressure from his wife to 'grow up and buy a home', so I think he is actually schadenfreuding pretty heavily himself.
SP
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sfbubblebuyer,
If getting flagged at C/L is the worst thing that happens to you, be glad of it! (Good on ya'!) I often see delusional listings there from "Rip Van Flipper" who awoke after a hundred years and just now heard there's a housing BOOM going on and I'm always so tempted to respond!
Dear Delusional,
Even during the absolute height of the mania (which you missed by about 2 years) and in your wildest dreams would a price like that be met! A "double wide" with freshly schlocked paint on 3.05 acres for "only" $699,900? In 03' and 04' when you should have been making regular improvements you were jet-skiing and jet-setting. Now you've run up a HUGE tab and you expect some greater fool to step in, cover all your old debts and give you some "walking around money" for oh... about 5 years? I don't think so. Better luck in the next RE bubble to end all bubbles cause you shore as hell missed this one!
DinOR
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Redwood City, CA
The rental section is the best area for flipper laughing. They seem to think writing 'executive' in front of their 3/2 house justifies asking anywhere between 1-4k more per month than the place deserves.
Menlo Park and Palo Alto are the worst offenders. It's literally cheaper to rent in Atherton than Palo Alto.
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Los Altos, CA
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Interesting things popping up over here too:
http://sfbay.craigslist.org/nby/rew/
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"But if I delighted in seeing the pain and suffering of other people" (who took pride in telling us how fucking stupid we were for not knowing real estate always goes up) "then I’d be twisted and sick."
e he e he he he e he he he he he he he ........
twisted and sick bay-bee, you got me....
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WTF...does everything revolve around the Bay area? Got Milk?
Hello...even Wisconsin is in a slide.
Oh, BTW, how is California handling the fires and water shorage: "Lets run a pipeline from the Great Lakes".
Yeah...That will happen.
No...wait...let's move to Oregon!!
The center of the universe...California. NOT.
OH...but our life is soooooooooooooo good here...yeah, tell that to Florida, Texas, North Carolina, Tennessee.
California cracks me up!! You actually think your real estate is worth more; even with less resources. Sigh.
Keep thinking about the water...the great Bay area...It's all local when it comes to RE.
Will not deny the lifestyle...but at what price?
Harmony...Leigh
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Los Altos, CA
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WTF…does everything revolve around the Bay area?
Isn't the core focus of this blog the Bay Area housing bubble? It has been for the 2+ years since I've been authoring here.
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Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac will raise the limits on the value of mortgage they can purchase. Thereby redefining what constitutes a Jumbo Loan.
What we have is a attempt to stealthily bail out those heading for trouble.
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Mountain View, CA
They can raise the limit for Jumbo's, but it doesn't get away from the fact that if people have to document their income, they can't afford a Jumbo - me included :-(
All I can hope is that house prices drop - and by a lot.
Randy - was it you who blogged that you though house prices in the BA would drop 40-50% or so? Do you still think that likely?
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Los Altos, CA
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Claire
I blogged that prices will fall by 40%-50% in real terms in non-prime areas of the BA.
I'm used Redwood City as my example, where a home I bought in 1996 for $365K peaked at nearly $1.2mm. This despite the fact no improvements had been done, the schools in RWC are a war zone, lots of RWC is very undesirable, and most of those inhabiting "neoprime" RWC are dual-income middle management types.
I think Woodside, Atherton, Belvedere, Hillsborough, etc. are measured on a whole different scale. I think they corrected a while ago (actually I pretty much know this from a good friend who works for the agency that sells that kind of stuff).
I think accessible-prime areas like Palo Alto, Menlo Park, San Anselmo, Saratoga The Marina, etc. will fall much less than 40-50%. Maybe half that. Already the Tam Valley part of Mill Valley is down at least 10%, and I know that most sales going through in the Marina in SF are off by closer to 15% of peak asking.
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Mountain View, CA
Randy H - thanks for the reply, we are located in the Mountain View/Los Altos area, and the prices here are depressing. If they don't correct much in the next two years I guess we'll be relocating. Still even a 20% correction would be significant, in that that is effectively everyone's deposit lost on the seller's side - assuming that they actually put 20% down. And for us, by not buying we will not have lost it either.