Recession is officially ended?


By seaside   Follow   Mon, 20 Sep 2010, 9:22am   1,492 views   15 comments
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http://money.cnn.com/2010/09/20/news/economy/recession_over/index.htm

http://www.nber.org/cycles/sept2010.html

So, NBER declared this recession which took place for 18 monthes, the longest one since WWII, is officially over.
Good to hear that, because any recession should end sooner or later.

The question for you guys at patricks, do you really feel that right or you think it's economist's bullcrap?

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  1. bubblesitter


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    1   10:12am Mon 20 Sep 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    This report only focuses on the last one that ended. It has nothing to do with the double dip that has just started.

  2. TechGromit


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    2   10:28am Mon 20 Sep 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    The recession has been over since January 2009, obviously if are or have been unemployed for the last 20 months, your a lazy bum that enjoys living off other hard working citizens. Go get a job you bum!

    On to other news, Who the freak decides when a recession is over or even when it begins? Perhaps the media didn't read the fine print footnote on the report, where it says we are now in a depression.

  3. Hysteresis


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    3   10:35am Mon 20 Sep 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    past recession has ended. no question.

    the article explained their rational.
    * "The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007."
    * "did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity."
    * "Rather, it decided that June was when the economy hit bottom"
    * "This is not a robust recovery"

  4. Goatkick


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    4   11:12am Mon 20 Sep 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    I agree it's over and been over by definition

  5. justme


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    5   12:34pm Mon 20 Sep 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (2)  

    What defines a recession is always up for debate. From Wikipedia:

    The NBER defines an economic recession as: "a significant decline in [the] economic activity spread across the country, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP growth, real personal income, employment (non-farm payrolls), industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."

    By this definition, if the economy sinks and settles along the bottom, the recession is over as soon as you hit the bottom. End of recession does NOT mean that the economy has recovered, it just means that it has stopped sinking.

    Whether "stopping sinking" is good enough for the average American is also up for debate (sarcasm alert).

  6. Hysteresis


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    6   12:46pm Mon 20 Sep 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    justme says

    What defines a recession is always up for debate. From Wikipedia:
    The NBER defines an economic recession as: “a significant decline in [the] economic activity spread across the country, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP growth, real personal income, employment (non-farm payrolls), industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”
    By this definition, if the economy sinks and settles along the bottom, the recession is over as soon as you hit the bottom. End of recession does NOT mean that the economy has recovered, it just means that it has stopped sinking.
    Whether “stopping sinking” is good enough for the average American is also up for debate (sarcasm alert).

    nber uses their own definition of a recession, so they are technically correct in defining the end of "their" recession.

    people that disagree with nber, simply don't understand nber's definition of a recession.
    they think their definition is the one nber is using (which is clearly wrong).

  7. thomas.wong1986


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    7   1:02pm Mon 20 Sep 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    There is a different measuring stick for Silicon Valley.

    # of new and existing public companies and
    $ of new funding rolling in for private companies.

    In California after 1989-1991 recession, around 3 solid years of declines, it took several years for any recovery to happen.
    Recovery did happen in other states, but CA was left behind. Not sure about the 18 months figure being the longest anyway.
    With so much M&A happening and higher unemployment, no need for new hiring, we may not be close to being finished as far a recession is concerned.

    In the case of Public Companies. We have a long way to go.

    Vanishing Public Companies Lead To The Incredible Shrinking Silicon Valley

    One of the most significant trends I’ve been watching over the past decade is the dramatic drop in public companies in Silicon Valley. Naturally, that number was artificially inflated during the dot-com bubble when it reached 417 in 2000. For our purposes, Silicon Valley includes San Mateo and Santa Clara counties, and the southern half of Alameda County.

    But the number of public companies has dropped for nine straight years now. Even when IPOs briefly reappeared in 2006 and 2007, they weren’t enough to overcome the net loss of public companies through acquisitions or bankruptcy.

    In 2008, the number had fallen to 261. We just updated our records and the latest figure is 241.

    That’s not just less than the dot-com era, that’s well below the 315 public companies the valley had in 1994 when the Mercury News started keeping track.

  8. Cvoc13


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    8   1:08pm Mon 20 Sep 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    This so called double dip, is really what PIMCO has coined "The New Normal"

  9. thomas.wong1986


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    9   1:10pm Mon 20 Sep 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    justme says

    What defines a recession is always up for debate. From Wikipedia:
    The NBER defines an economic recession as: “a significant decline in [the] economic activity spread across the country, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP growth, real personal income, employment (non-farm payrolls), industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”
    By this definition, if the economy sinks and settles along the bottom, the recession is over as soon as you hit the bottom. End of recession does NOT mean that the economy has recovered, it just means that it has stopped sinking.
    Whether “stopping sinking” is good enough for the average American is also up for debate (sarcasm alert).

    Absolutely right with your analysis and I dont think we are done with declines just yet.

  10. TechGromit


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    10   1:31pm Mon 20 Sep 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

    justme says

    By this definition, if the economy sinks and settles along the bottom, the recession is over as soon as you hit the bottom.

    So it's just another way to say it can't get any worse then this.

  11. bubblesitter


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    11   1:45pm Mon 20 Sep 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)  

    TechGromit says

    justme says

    By this definition, if the economy sinks and settles along the bottom, the recession is over as soon as you hit the bottom.

    So it’s just another way to say it can’t get any worse then this.

    or it is not going to get better than this :)

  12. pkennedy


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    12   1:47pm Mon 20 Sep 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

    Isn't that how a recession ends? Things don't get worse. They start to go positive.

    Or are you trying to state that to claim a recovery, we need to reduce unemployement to historic lows, housing needs to go back to 2008 levels AND we should toss in some inflation, because 2008 + some inflation is about where we should be today!

  13. TechGromit


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    13   1:49pm Mon 20 Sep 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    http://money.cnn.com/2010/09/20/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm

    Well the stock market believes it anyway, if it's in the news, it must be true.

    Bubble days are here again. You get the home equity loan and I'll pick out the granite counter top.

  14. deanrite


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    14   4:11pm Mon 20 Sep 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    New normal = deadcat roll.

  15. tarkin


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    15   5:04pm Mon 20 Sep 2010   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    There was no depression for the poor then and there is no Great Recession for the poor now. How can the recession be over when it never started?

    Back in good ol' Alabam we would always sing:
    "Well somebody told us Wall Street fell
    But we were so poor that we couldn't tell
    Cotton was short and the weeds were tall
    But Mr. Roosevelt's a gonna save us all"

    Really, save us from what? Do the poor now have less than they didn't have in 2008?

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