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While the sheer volume of bubble/hedge fund/MBS-CDO implosion stories appearing in the news daily nowadays, it can be difficult to pick out the "pearls" among the pebbles, or the truly extraordinary items from the mundane "yet another Wall Street multi-billion-dollar write-down". (Btw, amazing to see bubble implosion lead headlines every day on Bloomberg, MSNBC & CNNMoney, etc. compared to just 2-3 years ago, isn't it? Any long-timers remember Face Reality, Fake P, MarinaPrime, CuriousCat, DAiryQueen, etc. brushing off our concerns as Chicken Little, doomster hand-wringing?).
This one recently caught my eye, and stayed in the back of my mind (via Tanta with Calculated Risk):
“It’s a zero-sum game. If you put trades on that worked so well that you bankrupt your counterparty, you will not collect on those trades.”
--Jim Keegan, a senior vice president and portfolio manager at American Century Investments
I've often read MSM quotes from Wall Street outfit bigwigs (Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Chase, Citibank, etc.) to the effect that, "Even if all these MBSs/CDOs, derivatives, swap agreements & $Trillions in other financial Dark Matter go 'boom!', we're ok, dude. 'Cuz we, like, hedge 'n stuff."
Apparently, (if I'm reading Jim Keegan correctly), if your "insurance company" goes belly-up, then you "may" have a problem collecting on that insurance policy. So, I guess it comes down to a case of gambling --even on the bearish/short side-- is *still* gambling?
Am I interpreting this correctly?
Discuss, enjoy...
HARM
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sybrib Says:
> about those bloggers having more incite than bankers,
> investors, economists…
> The much deeper problem is nothing new, it’s just showing
> up in what seems like a new place to you (and really, it’s
> not that new of a place. Remember the real estate bubble
> that popped in 1990? Tech bubble? Enron? Arthur Burns-
> authored inflation? Different bubbles, same kinds of elite
> bankers, investors, economists…)
> all those elite business schools either dumbed them down
> or trained them very well in malfeasance, probably it was
> a little bit of both.
Most guys in business school learn that you can you can make a lot of money taking big risks with other people’s money without much real personal down side even if you lose every penny of the investors money.
I was just talking to a bunch of friends in NY (Investment Bankers) and CT (Hedge Fund Guys) and all say that things are going to get ugly early next year when all the stuff they hid in order pump up the end of year bonuses come to light…
> There’s someone who posts on here that graduated from Haas
> who shares a lot of insight, and it’s clear from what he shares
> that he learned that stuff in the school of the Real World. Not Haas.
I took some business classes as an undergrad but that was a few years before Wally cut the big check for $20mm + and they started calling it Haas. It was 10 years later at the “Junior University” business school that I learned how much money you can make working at a 2/20 shop and taking big risks…
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Did anyone see the spot on CBS last week where Canada is opening their doors to Mexican nationals leaving the U.S.. The segment made sure to interview the father with him saying that the utilities are free, the medical is free (pregnant wife sitting next to him, of course), the apartment is free and they get a stipend. The thing was so slanted and strange. It was like our government put it out there to entice our extra illegals to invade Canada.
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Carlsbad, CA
Malcolm's website
Interesting, I only qualify to move to Canada because of a master's degree, and they won't give me a free apartment. Oh well.
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Yeah. And what about last year when they were deporting people by the bushel. Portugese, Indian, Italians, etc.
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WB did comment on the bubble when he sold his beachfront land. I recall this vividly, but he sold before the top in 2004. He was saying that the land was valued at $6M/acre which was completely insane.
Funny that people always think that they can outsmart WB. Recently WB dumped all his PetroChina PTR shares, and realized a 700% return over 4 years. Lots of dumb Chinese investors bought these shares from him saying that a foreigner like WB doesn't understand the "unique" business environment in China. Since he unloaded, the stock price made the final climb of 10% and crashed about 40% from the peak.
I don't necessarily buy when WB buys. But when he unloads, I definitely follow.
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You can work in Canada on a 1 year renewable visa if you have an offer from an employer, this is also true for Canadians coming over to the states. A college degree is required and it only works for certain kinds of employment. I don't think Mexican nationals have the same deal.
Also, children can become US or Canadian citizens eventhough their mother is on visitor's visa, exactly how they get a visitor's visa when the mother's are pregnant I'm not so sure.
There was a large deportation of illegal Portugese from Toronto last year or the year before, most of them were construction workers, there were some protests but I don't think the Canadian government are keen on having a lot of illegals in the country, but some say it's because it is very easy to move there legally. When we moved there in the 70's, my parents had to sign an agreement to not draw welfare for 10 years. I think that didn't apply to refugees or boat people at that time.
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Boise, ID
I first learned to like Warren Buffett due to his many appearances on Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser. His comments always appeared sage to me. Only later did it dawn on me how filthy rich he was.
The 14th Amendment gives a two-part test for automatic citizenship: (1) all persons born or naturalized in the US and (2) subject to the jurisdiction thereof.
For example, if the French ambassador had a kid while serving in the US, that kid is NOT a US citizen. It is arguable that kids of illegal aliens are also not automatically citizens since they fail the second part of the two-part test. It would be interesting for Congress to pass a law making that point and seeing what the Supreme Court would say about it.
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Mountain View, CA
But WB does have some bank stock right? I'm wondering wht he knows that we don't?
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Back to the original post, it's actually a simpler interpretation. Counterparty risk simply refers to the ability of the other party to fulfill their obligation under the terms. I think a good metaphor here would be a loanshark. He makes loans to deadbeats, gamblers, and drug addicts in exchange for exorbitant interest rates. It's very risky debt and just because you charge 1,000% interest (sounds like great a ROI) doesn't mean that you'll ever see that kind of return. If the terms are so onerous that the counterparty goes broke trying to pay back the note, then it's a poorly structured deal...
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cb - 11:53 -- You've outlined well exactly why the vast, vast majority of we Americans are stuck right where we are, we have to love it because we can't leave it.
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Lots of dumb Chinese investors bought these shares from him saying that a foreigner like WB doesn’t understand the “unique” business environment in China.
There is no such thing as unique business environment. Human nature is all the same when it comes to greed and fear.
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It would be interesting for Congress to pass a law making that point and seeing what the Supreme Court would say about it.
There are several type of illegal aliens, right?
1) Those who entered illegally, without being lawfully admitted at the border or port of entry
2) Those who entered legally and became illegal through status expiration or violation
(1) can be interesting here.
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Carlsbad, CA
Malcolm's website
cb Says:
December 20th, 2007 at 11:53 pm
"You can work in Canada on a 1 year renewable visa if you have an offer from an employer, this is also true for Canadians coming over to the states. A college degree is required and it only works for certain kinds of employment. I don’t think Mexican nationals have the same deal."
I was referring to permanent residence.
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There are lots of rumors about WB holding banking stocks, particularly that of Bear Stearns. That is untrue.
WB made it clear at a seminar (by invitation only) in Canada recently that he was approached by certain IBs for capital but he didn't take up on such opportunities. Because he has such a draw, so it is quite convenient for banking people to spread rumors about him interested in shopping at the fictional "bottom". I think he is way smarter than that.
Incidentally, he commented at the same seminar that he thinks Canadian oil sand will head for higher values in the next few years, which is consistent with his major stake in BNI and a couple of undisclosed railways.
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Oh well, we are about to head into recession and therefore much lower birth rate. Perhaps we do need illegal aliens to drop babies so that my generation can retire :-)
I am amazed at the proliferation of fertility clinics in the BA, and they are not covered by medical insurance. I am if these clinics will feel the chill of recession before other "discretionary" consumer spending. I have met a couple of middle class double-income wage slaves who are going to these clinics using home equity. I think the birth rate of this country is about to take a dive.
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"he waited until the peak of the bubble in October 2005 to sell it $4.4 mm."
FAB, I was unaware of that transaction but it certainly sounds like you were intimate with it? I'm sure Warren owns a LOT of things I'm unaware of.
The one I was referring to was:
www.nypost.com/seven/11052006/business/buffet_is_way_wrong_at_home_business_suzanne_mcgee.htm
I think it's just grand Mr. Manchester paid $3.5 mil. in Nov. of 2006 and was STILL able to turn a profit (after spending "several" hundred thousand in improvements). Ahem, care to define "several" Richard?
The authwhore completely and conveniently glosses over the fact that WB's profit (more than triple) in 9 years was done on a much lower risk-to-reward ratio and was treated as a long term gain! While flipper boy was able to eke out a profit, it was all taxed at the higher rate and if I might add, at much greater risk! Having $50 mil. in client assets might impress in OR but in Laguna Beach, sorry, that's a piker.
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Please try this OC Register link. It actually is a little more sexed up anyway.
www.ocregister.com/ocregister/money/housing/article_719509.php
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OO - yes it's a Ponzi scheme, and if double-income wage-slaves aren't going to drop plenty of kids, then we have to import people to do the sexual acts and procreation Americans won't do!
So, unless the US turns Mormon or keeps the flow of fertile illegals flowing, you, sir, will not be able to retire.
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A tale of two markets:
It's a similar story in the East Bay, where it would take about 2.25 months to sell all the homes now for sale in the Oakland hills but 15.7 months to churn through the inventory in Hayward, based on sales averages this year and multiple listing service data.
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Would as in, Would based on sales this time last year. Or Should? Could?
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If you lived in the Oakland hills, why would you want to move? The whole east bay ridge has, in my opinion, some of the best views in the entire region, even the world. It really is staggering. Who wants to live in the flat lands. Hence 2.25 vs. 15.7 months.
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>> I am amazed at the proliferation of fertility clinics in the BA, and they are not covered by medical insurance.
Indian and Chinese couples likes two children. Dual income couples are turning infertile. These folks typically buys home before having children. However, infertility sets in due to age, stress etc. After buying expensive house, these folks then spend money to get pregnant.
Overall infertility treatment is a great business in Bay Area.
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A buddy of mine and his wife did the whole infertility treatment gig. They ended up having twins. Their joke is that they got a twofer. Worked out well for them.
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Incidentally, he commented at the same seminar that he thinks Canadian oil sand will head for higher values in the next few years, which is consistent with his major stake in BNI and a couple of undisclosed railways
Maybe the oil sand boom can rescue Arizona's RE market...
http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/story/2007/12/17/realestate-sunbelt.html
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surfer-x's website
buys home before having children.
I think may have meant, buys homes befores havings mores chindians
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surfer-x's website
moot,
moot,
moot,
moot,
moot,
HARM, how's it swinging? Mrs X is ready, you still want one? Give us a call.
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The illegals are leaving!
http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/12/22/immigrants.leave.ap/index.html?eref=rss_topstories
Me think this is because their illegally-mortgaged homes are now under water.
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>> The illegals are leaving!
Take a look at the currency component growth, it is well over 10%. Why so strong given that pretty much everything is paid for by credit/debit cards and checks.
Oh, I forgot, illegal immigarnts like to take their payment in the form of cash, or if they have bank accounts and want to send money home, many withdraw the money in cash.
By they way, a number of those sub-prime loans to illegal immigrants, especially in California. Those who made profits and wanted to send the profits home may have done so by cash. I suspect some of our money supply has simply been exported, we just don't know how much.
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exactly how does a discussion of counterparty risk and hedging get turned into the typical low class trash class people's race blaming????
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Remember folks .... I am not the only one in the US populace whose small biz failed, got in credit trouble, and am now effectively not allowed to get up again.
There's always been a certain portion of the US population who are in the underground, cash-only economy. But the way things are set up now, take my case - if I work, it's garnished or siezed. If I declare BK, the IRS will tax the amount of forgiven debt, creating another mathematically-impossible amount to repay. Repeat the seizure/garnishment scenario.
Supposedly in the US if you fail you are allowed to get up again. Well, you are not.
Now, we are going to have MILLIONS in my situation, many in deeper because they bought a house.
What are they going to do? Work and it gets taken. Keep a bank account and it gets taken.
Thus, they're going to farm, forage, gather, become freegans, work in the underground economy in various ways.
Thus, we're already seeing a rise in cash-only trade, I'd expect it to increase greatly.
In fact if I can make it as a street musician or whatever the hell I'm going to do that works, I'm going to be very tempted to turn my USbucks into junk silver coins which I'll bury.
Just like the fall or Rome....
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Oh and to mitigate the racial angle, more cash transactions do not necessarily mean more "illegals" doing stuff all-cash. Yes they live their lives all-cash, but millions of Americans who can trace their roots back to the Mayflower are going to be living all-cash too.
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Those who made profits and wanted to send the profits home may have done so by cash. I suspect some of our money supply has simply been exported, we just don’t know how much.
Well, it is their money and they are free to export cash legally.
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'Green Card Marriage' ad nets arrest
Story Highlights
Feds allege Russian and husband engaged in sham marriage over green card
Yuliya Kalinina accused of placing "Green Card Marriage" ad on Craigslist
Woman's attorney says client didn't know it was illegal to marry for green card
Agent: It may be first criminal case in which Web allegedly used for sham green card
LOS ANGELES, California (AP) -- At least she was being honest.
Yuliya Kalinina, 24, spelled out exactly what she was looking for in a husband in her Internet ad:
"Green Card Marriage -- Will pay $300/month. Total $15,000," the Russian national wrote in an ad placed on the Craigslist Web site. "This is strictly platonic business offer, sex not involved."
The ad caught the attention of the man who would eventually marry her on February 17, 2006. But it also alerted agents from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
Kalinina, from Russia, and her husband, Benjamin C. Adams, 30, were arrested last week for what federal prosecutors allege was a sham marriage.
Robert Schoch, special agent in charge of ICE investigations in Los Angeles, said it is the first criminal case he is aware of in which people allegedly used the Internet to engineer a sham marriage for a green card. Watch as the Craigslist ad for a husband lands the woman in trouble »
Attorney Dale Rubin, who is representing Kalinina, said she didn't know it was illegal to marry for a green card, which he said was evidenced by the blatant language in her ad.
Adams' attorney, public defender John Littrell, declined to comment to the Los Angeles Times.
Copyright 2007 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed
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Carlsbad, CA
Malcolm's website
Bap33 Says:
December 21st, 2007 at 4:19 pm
"When I read where Richmond wrote “extra Illegals” … I laughed at the thought of some illegals being more illegal than others… “extra illegal”. Admit it, that’s kinda funny."
An extra illegal alien is someone who comes across the border illegally while smoking a cuban cigar.
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An extra illegal alien is someone who comes across the border illegally while smoking a cuban cigar.
LOL :lol:
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Ok, maybe I should have said "surplus" illegals.
I love the Cuban cigar twist, though.
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Facing jail for slavery, NRI couple to lose house too
Published on Wed, Dec 19, 2007 at 13:34 in World » World360 section
HOME TRUTH: Mahender and his wife operated a worldwide perfume business out of their home
New York: Held guilty of modern day slavery and awaiting sentences, Mahender and Varsha Sabhnani, a wealthy business couple are set to lose their million-dollar house in Long Island near here.
India born Mahender, 51, and Indonesia-born Varsha, 45, are naturalised US citizens, who face around 20 years in prison after both were convicted for imprisoning and torturing two Indonesian maids in their house over a period of five years.
Federal court jurors in Central Islip unanimously decided Tuesday that the Sabhnanis' property in Muttontown was used in the commission of a crime and must be forfeited to the government.
The Sabhnanis operate a successful worldwide perfume business out of their Muttontown home.
The allegations against the couple included forcing the maids, identified only as Samirah and Enung, to work over 18 hours a day, beatings with brooms and umbrellas, slashings with knives and being made to repeatedly climb stairs and take freezing showers.
The same jury Monday had convicted the couple of imprisoning and torturing the two maids.
The Sabhnanis' case had received wide publicity in the US as well as abroad because prosecutors called it a rare instance of modern day slavery.
Their lawyers said the jury was taken with the histrionics of the maids, and plan to appeal.
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I have no respect for any person who mistreats his domestic workers.
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New topic: Predictions on what 2008 will bring?
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BUYING DISTRESSED DEBT --- SOON
The sequence from counterpary default to contrarian opportunity.
We will buy distressed debt because we see the following sequence of events:
1. Credit rating downgrades
2. Counterparty defaults and abandonment
3. Further price weakness in distressed debt
4. Buying opportunity at deep discounts
5. Modest recovery in tranches and individual mortgage paper followed by material recovery in most of the acquired portfolio
Recent entry into the bond guaranty sector by a high profile investor suggests that buying the lender / or counterpary at a deep discount might be a preferred strategy for the very well endowed investor.
We want to talk to others who share our enthusiasm for this contrarian investment strategy on a smaller scale.